Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

So the UK is to send Challenger 2 tanks along with some more artillery, I do think it is only a matter of time now before the Yanks send some M1 Abrams.

[EGO_Aut]

Polish President confirmed that Poland will provide company (10 tanks) of Leopards 2 and is working with other European countries to gather more of them.

Aparently the only thing left is official approval from Germany as a producer.

Most news always write it as if Poland already had concrete plans. In fact, they haven't even officially asked germany(what i know).

[chew-ie]

The whole tank discussion [in the media] sounds like powerplay / craving for recognition to me. Those kind of military deals, especially in a complex environment where many countries [and licenses] are involved aren't just decided on a 1:1 call. When France announced their tank delivery it also was kind of a hasty reaction. I really wished they'd show more unity and be more professional about it.

In Russias horror stories about the evil west we surely act more united.

That being said - I hope Ukraine gets all tanks, munition and artillery they need. And fast.

[mr.WHO]

Most news always write it as if Poland already had concrete plans. In fact, they haven't even officially asked germany(what i know).

The plan is probably like that:
- UK is giving 10 Challenger 2 tanks fast, to block german "we don't sent western tanks to Ukraine" narrative.
- Poland is working with several countries (so far Poland, Spain, Finland and Denmark confirmed, possibly several more) to block "no country should act on it's own" narrative.
- point two will also allow to gather enough Leo 2 to equip an armoured brigade, so this will break "too few to make a difference" narrative.

The only thing Germany can do is to openly block the delivery, but it's hard to explain why Panzerhaubitze2000, Gepard and Marders are OK, but Leo 2 (and Leo 1) are not OK.

If everything fails, I can see Poland report that they forgot to close the garare and some tanks were mysteriously vanished - where they are, who know? Germany angry? They won't sell their tanks to us anymore? how sad, K2 and Abrams goes wrooom

[EGO_Aut]

So you realy think some MBT´s will change the war? Sure the offence potenzial will be raised, but when RU gets their hands on Leopard/Abrahms/Challanger they will have access to high-tech equipment (night vision, armor, gun tracking,...). If the "status quo" cannot be maintained - because everyone is against one - it can (at least that's how I see it) lead to a reaction such as France would have planned in the event of an RU invasion in Germany, during the cold war.-Nuke German (btw).
The best solution for the world would be a conflict that lasts as long as possible, ultimately leading to Putin's downfall. RU is too big too fail, unfortunately.

[notaterran]

RU is too big too fail, unfortunately.

The Soviet Union collapsed, we're still here. The Russian Federation can collapse and we'll probably still be here, especially now that we've seen that Russia has nothing but empty threats for the West.

[mr.WHO]

So you realy think some MBT´s will change the war? Sure the offence potenzial will be raised, but when RU gets their hands on Leopard/Abrahms/Challanger they will have access to high-tech equipment (night vision, armor, gun tracking,...). If the "status quo" cannot be maintained - because everyone is against one - it can (at least that's how I see it) lead to a reaction such as France would have planned in the event of an RU invasion in Germany, during the cold war.-Nuke German (btw).
The best solution for the world would be a conflict that lasts as long as possible, ultimately leading to Putin's downfall. RU is too big too fail, unfortunately.

Most of these so called "high-tech" blueprints have been stolen already long ago by Russia and China, but somehow Russian haven't manage to build and incorporate them in their own tanks - salvaging these from destroyed Western tanks won't do that much for Russia.

As for status quo - that's what is going on - these tanks and other recent stuff (Marder and Bradley) are to even the odds for incoming Russian spring offensive.
Without these, Russia will have upper hand in spring.
That's probably why ex-soviet planes and gunships (and F-16 and A-10 much later) are still kept in reserve - depending how dire the situation in spring will be, these will be next to be send.

[Falcrack]

So you realy think some MBT´s will change the war? Sure the offence potenzial will be raised, but when RU gets their hands on Leopard/Abrahms/Challanger they will have access to high-tech equipment (night vision, armor, gun tracking,...). If the "status quo" cannot be maintained - because everyone is against one - it can (at least that's how I see it) lead to a reaction such as France would have planned in the event of an RU invasion in Germany, during the cold war.-Nuke German (btw).
The best solution for the world would be a conflict that lasts as long as possible, ultimately leading to Putin's downfall. RU is too big too fail, unfortunately.

I honestly don't care if Russia gets their hands on a bit of Western tech, including Abrams, as long as the Abrams have played their part in killing large amount of Russian equipment.

The Soviet Union was also too big to fail.

[EGO_Aut]

Unfortunately, there are no good signs for peace, the West is increasing arms deliveries and Russia is switching to a war economy, and people are left behind.

[mr.WHO]

The Soviet Union collapsed, we're still here. The Russian Federation can collapse and we'll probably still be here, especially now that we've seen that Russia has nothing but empty threats for the West.

Unfortunately, the fall of Russian Federation is wishful thinking.
80% of population identify as Russian, while only 20% identify as minority nations.

There is a reason why Putin sends minorities to die in Ukraine first - this is to "save" more of Russians proper and to have easier crackdown job, once the unrests/uprisings kick in the minority republics.
At most, you can just expect several more "Chechen wars", exept that Chechen had "undammaged" population and mostly well trained ex-soviet trained troops when the war started.

Even weakened by eventual defeat in Ukraine, Russian Federation is still well set to crackdown on any breakaway attempts.

[chew-ie]

There is no need for Russia to collapse - they only have to learn this:


@orig: https://nitter.at/pic/orig/media%2FFmgy44AXEAMCOj1.jpg

Afterwards they just have to make amends for the suffering and destruction they caused. Took Germany sweet time of what - 20-30 years - to become a full part of the world again after terrorizing everyone.

[EGO_Aut]

After the defeat, they could sell Königsberg to EU to pay the bills. The new sudden strike against a gas pipeline on Nato teritory could make them freeze and unhappy if the repairs take longer?

[Sovereign01]

So you realy think some MBT´s will change the war? Sure the offence potenzial will be raised, but when RU gets their hands on Leopard/Abrahms/Challanger they will have access to high-tech equipment (night vision, armor, gun tracking,...). If the "status quo" cannot be maintained - because everyone is against one - it can (at least that's how I see it) lead to a reaction such as France would have planned in the event of an RU invasion in Germany, during the cold war.-Nuke German (btw).
The best solution for the world would be a conflict that lasts as long as possible, ultimately leading to Putin's downfall. RU is too big too fail, unfortunately.

Most of these so called "high-tech" blueprints have been stolen already long ago by Russia and China, but somehow Russian haven't manage to build and incorporate them in their own tanks - salvaging these from destroyed Western tanks won't do that much for Russia.

As for status quo - that's what is going on - these tanks and other recent stuff (Marder and Bradley) are to even the odds for incoming Russian spring offensive.
Without these, Russia will have upper hand in spring.
That's probably why ex-soviet planes and gunships (and F-16 and A-10 much later) are still kept in reserve - depending how dire the situation in spring will be, these will be next to be send.

If they destroy any. Which in the case of the Challenger 2, that's a very big if. If the Challenger 2 has any one major claim to fame, it is the armour. Dorchester Composite is widely reputed to be the strongest armour on any main battle tank in the entire world and the encounters in Iraq definitely seemed to prove it. The Chally was known to shrug off RPG-7 attacks without even noticing, in addition to withstanding Iraqi tank fire with such little effect on the crew they had to be told by a flanking tank they had been hit. In one situation it withstood 14 RPG hits on all angles as well as a MILAN anti-tank missile to the top of the turret (generally a weak point in tank armour, at least relative to the front and sides of the turret). Another survived over 70 RPG strikes alone in one day. This is a seriously hard tank.

The Challenger 2 already had massively thick armour plates on all sides (bar underbelly and lower glacis) made of the still unbeaten Dorchester. 'Streetfighter' then added Dorchester plates to the underbelly & lower glacis, two more full layers of Dorchester armour to the side of the turret and flanks of the tank, Israeli ERA on the sides and turret, cage armour on the rear and bomb disruptor systems. All this led the tank to become over 75 tons (!) in weight.

[Warenwolf]

The history is full of stories of supposedly invincible wunderwaffen. There is no such thing as undestructable tanks especially in a war which is ever changing. Just remember the drone hype which faded away as soon as Kremlin forces figured out how to turn their AD systems on.

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Now, not too ruin the warporn narrative going on here (this is a joke, nobody needs to feel offended) but I think logistically speaking Ukrainians would be far better served is the support towards them is being bit...standardized...

Sending them 10 Challengers, 90 Leos and hodgepodge of other tanks would have been ok in the beginning where every bit helped but for long term affairs as this war is looking to be, Ukrainians would be far better served with bit of standardization in the help that is being sent their way. One thing is the obvious problems and strain of logistics and maintenance of units with same purpose but different T/E but training is another.
You would like your mechanics and crew to be able to serve in any unit and not be locked to certain units or areas and their training should be focused and as short as possible.

[Alan Phipps]

A primary role of tanks today is as tank-killers. No tank is invulnerable but some have better survivability under fire than others. All fear attack helicopters.

That said, different roles may suit different types of tanks. Heavy well-armoured tanks suit supporting the advance of armoured infantry in AFVs; they protect them by taking out enemy armour and protected defences while, to an extent, acting as fire magnets that might further spare the AFVs.

Lighter and more agile tanks can act in numbers as manoeuvre assets that bypass prepared defences and attack logistics and less-prepared reserve elements in the enemy's rear areas.

This is very much an ideal that a mix of different tank types might assist with if planned appropriately, although I acknowledge the standardisation problems of logistics, maintenance, resupply, and training, etc. Even simple language problems may exist with labelling, cautions, and manuals, etc.

[mr.WHO]

I think the only point of sending 10-14 Challengers is to unlock Leopard stream (in combination with incoming Marders and Bradleys).

As you mentioned logistically these Challengers will be very impractical and will probably sit somewhere near Kiyv or Kharkiv to look nice and boost morale.

However, from recent UK shipment, AHS Krabs will have some family reunion with 30 AS-90

[mr.WHO]

According to "Neue Zürcher Zeitung", Switzerland is working on a bill, that will relax the rules of re-export of Swiss produced weapons, so under some conditions, thirdparty countries will be able to give/sell their equipment without asking Switzerland for permission.

[Sovereign01]

I think the only point of sending 10-14 Challengers is to unlock Leopard stream (in combination with incoming Marders and Bradleys).

As you mentioned logistically these Challengers will be very impractical and will probably sit somewhere near Kiyv or Kharkiv to look nice and boost morale.

However, from recent UK shipment, AHS Krabs will have some family reunion with 30 AS-90

Yeah, you need many more to have an effective fighting force, using them to boost morale is never a bad thing.

[Tamina]

For anyone interested, there is a really good analysis by the Austrian army of the war since it started
https://youtu.be/54daqNraMxE
No flashy lights, no clickbait, no one sided views. Just a clear and neutral reality-check of the past and current situation.

[burger1]

Apparently Russia is offering citizenship to foreigners who will fight in Ukraine. There might an animated African region recruiting video.

https://news.yahoo.com/general-staff-ru ... 54844.html

It looks like Ukraine's getting their largest weapon shipments yet soon.

Turkey still messing around with Sweden and Finlands Nato application process. Hungary's still stalling also.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-ap ... 1673705878