red assassin wrote: ↑Sat, 9. May 20, 15:00
Reminder that it is not the case that reopening the economy is automatically the best way to help the economy:
https://fortune.com/2020/05/04/reopenin ... conomists/
Most economists agree that an overly aggressive attempt to reopen the economy leads to a worse overall economic outcome due to the economic costs associated with a second wave of the disease. This is true even if lockdown measures are not reintroduced: it turns out that having a large chunk of your population get sick/die is also pretty bad for the economy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pedrodacos ... u-in-1918/
There is, of course, disagreement in the exact measures that should be taken at what time etc. But the position that aiming to keep the economy open above all else is not the best way of protecting the economy is not a controversial one. Arguments starting from the "obvious" idea that we must prioritise reopening the economy are refusing to acknowledge the actual complexity of the situation, and in the best interests of literally nobody.
It's far from clear cut, and it will remain that way for some time (years) to come.
**** NOTE I AM NOT ADVOCATING THE FOLLOWING ****
You could take an extreme example - no special measures whatsoever. People would die - let's say for the sake of argument 1% of the population, businesses and industries would suffer and be disrupted, health services would be overwhelmed, and we'd be through it and out the other side (allowing for seasonal return, mutation etc etc).
Thankfully that's not a position any sensible politician in the developed world can take.
However, we can compare the costs of the above with the costs associated with the global lockdown, damage to businesses, people, the education of children, government bailouts etc, which are currently running into the trillions of dollars globally (the last time I checked, maybe a week ago, they were already some three times the size of the bank bailouts in 2008).
And no doubt we will. This is exactly the sort of calculation that NICE (for non UKers that's the UK's National Institute of Clinical Excellence) runs every day when looking at the cost benefit analysis for new interventions. I am a long way from convinced that, on "normal" pre COVID-19
economic measures, the current response is justifiable. An organisation like NICE has, somewhere, a scorecard that details value, in £, of additional years of life given x, y and z. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that the dollar cost of saving a life from COVID-19 is massively more expensive than the dollar cost of saving an equivalent life from cancer, or providing IVF, or free school meals or whatever else you might want to compare it with.
It is, of course, completely justifiable on social, political and humanitarian grounds.
I can't breathe.
- George Floyd, 25th May 2020