Coronavirus: COVID-19

[pjknibbs]

The problem with saying that humans survived the Black Death, or the Spanish flu, or stuff like that, is that the world is very different. Mass travel, too much is focused on economics (share markets) and maybe the fear that there going to be another global recession. The world is very different, and a great deal more volatile, especailly when it comes to the USA.

Oh, for God's sake. Why does everyone keep comparing Covid-19 to Black Death or Spanish Flu? The overall death rate from Covid-19 is around 3%. That's bad--it's 20-30x worse than regular flu--but Spanish flu death rates were between 10 and 20%, while Black Death was more like 30%. Covid-19 is not anywhere like as serious. As for the world being different, yes, it is--we have better medical care than we did in either of those incidents. None of that is an excuse for going about business as normal because "it's only the flu", because it's definitely not that simple, but to assume it's the end times is ridiculous.

[Vertigo 7]

Herd immunity might have been the best way to go, Viruses can still be Mans' biggest enemy at times, but we are so slow to adept, too dependent on drugs that are on their way out, because of over use, and either not having a good substitute or virus' becoming more and more immune.

As Chips said, herd immunity is a plateau, not a means. And there's currently no drugs that can help with this virus. You can't throw aspirin at a viral infection and hope it does the trick. The ONLY treatment for combating a virus is the human immune system response and the ONLY way that works is if the human body can produce antibodies to kill the virus. And in order for that to happen, the virus has to be introduced into the body. So that means, you get the virus, or you get a vaccine (which is an engineered weakened version).

The only thing non vaccine drugs do is treat symptoms. They'll stop your runny nose, but you'll still have the virus.

[Axeface]

It's a change in lifestyle, albeit a temporary one. People are naturally resistant to change, but this is about saving as many lives as possible. That has to take a priority above personal wants and desires. The question is do we sacrifice a quarter million or more people for the sake of an economy or do we let the economy slide and save people's lives, fix it later? I don't know about you, but to me, the economy will always take a back seat to the well being of the people.

Whether it takes a year, give or take, or a couple of months, we will get through this. We've survived the black plague, smallpox, malaria, on an on, we will survive this too. We just need to be patient and adaptable to changing circumstances around us.

Im not talking about lifestyle change, if thats all that happens then this whole thing is a blessing... I feel like your reply is so flippant to be honest. Perhaps you feel secure in your countries societal safety net, and it will indeed be more robust than where i live - but rest assured that if a quarantine lasts a long time you will start to see mass layoffs. I know people that stand around car parks helping people park their cars, and there are a lot of these people here... they live sandwich to sandwich, not paycheck to paycheck.

Also, winter is coming here - and winter is hard here, everyone gets sick and gets pneumonia even without this stuff going around........ we heat our house with a single wood fireplace (and the wood costs 100 dollars a month, which will rise now), hows that AC or central heating going? I dont even have a sewage system, we dont have piped gas, we dont even have nationalised ambulances! And where I live is considered one of the best countries in the region.

Before I said anything else, I would point to what I had posted before in this and other thread that I take this epidemic quite seriously. But at the same time, I don't feel I need to make this "more" serious then it is, and by that I mean the "society gonna collapse" level.

- China went into a hardcore quarantine for almost 3 months, it didn't collapse.
- 1918 Influenza were much much worse than we're facing now. Society didn't collapse.

My reply to the previous guy can be used as a reply to you too.
Firstly, Its easier for things to apparently go 'well' in china because its a brutal communist dictatorship, god knows whats actually happening there. Secondly, I dont know much about the spanish flu, but I can definately assume that people just continued to work then on a large scale, and governments just let people die, the economy survived because most kept working and earning money for their families. Life was 'cheaper' then, as you kind of outlined in what you said, we expect more now, we consider life more precious now, we are better. Educate me otherwise if that is not the case.
I am genuinely not panicking by the way, I am remaining as calm as I possible as I can. Your advise to get off the media is a good one though.

It will definitely be a transformative experience, the last time humanity have to face something like this none of us were even born yet, but like I said we're much better than our forefather in tackling it. Who know, maybe something good in term society structure and policy will come out of this. Just like wars, there is nothing that brings people together and enact changes that would otherwise take a long time or impossible to do like a crisis.

This is all true and we've been talking about this. Perhaps we will see a move to less work days, the 3 day work week. Maybe we will unseat the oil overlords that run the world. Maybe we will develop 'new' (old, actually) ways to get around the world more efficiently and cleanly. Maybe we will finally start to transition away from the ******* monetary trade system. There are many possible great things that could transcend our archaic society to the next level because of this.

Overall, im just a random idiot sitting at my computer and this is just what im seeing. If the quarantine doesnt last that long we may be 'ok', as in the impact may not be that bad for too many years. If it lasts a long time we are going to have major problems globally, and the only way we can come through it ok in my mind is if some of the transformative things I explained above start to happen - thats another subject and I really think the trend in current voting behaviour proves that society is currently incapable of that, when large swaths of the population think bumbling fumbling imbeciles should represent them, how can major change happen on a global unified way? This transformative stuff needs to happen globally and in unison and not be vetoed by cretins.

[CBJ]

Your advise to get off the media is a good one though.

Yes and no. The advice was to get off "mainstream" media, but it really depends on where you are and what your definition of "mainstream" media is. If getting off mainstream media means resorting to the kind of crackpot conspiracy theory media sources that people are usually referring to when they say this, then it's seriously bad advice. If it means getting off sensationalist media channels that are just reporting panic buying and politicising everything (in whatever direction) then yes, it's good advice.

Here in the UK, the BBC are about as mainstream as it gets, and they seem to be starting to focus more on getting key information out to people rather than hyping anything up. It's probably not a good idea for people who are anxious about the situation already to sit watching the news for hours on end, because it will just exacerbate their worries, but they should still "check in" on it now and again to make sure they are aware of the latest advice. Personally I'd suggest that such people should just stick to watching daily news broadcasts at whatever time(s) of day they would normally do so.

[Axeface]

Oh yeh thats what I meant really, stop watching it constantly, there is no point - just check in every now and then. Its hard to do though isnt it considering we are all so used to scrolling down whenever we have a minute to ourselves.

[Vertigo 7]

It's a change in lifestyle, albeit a temporary one. People are naturally resistant to change, but this is about saving as many lives as possible. That has to take a priority above personal wants and desires. The question is do we sacrifice a quarter million or more people for the sake of an economy or do we let the economy slide and save people's lives, fix it later? I don't know about you, but to me, the economy will always take a back seat to the well being of the people.

Whether it takes a year, give or take, or a couple of months, we will get through this. We've survived the black plague, smallpox, malaria, on an on, we will survive this too. We just need to be patient and adaptable to changing circumstances around us.

Im not talking about lifestyle change, if thats all that happens then this whole thing is a blessing... I feel like your reply is so flippant to be honest. Perhaps you feel secure in your countries societal safety net, and it will indeed be more robust than where i live - but rest assured that if a quarantine lasts a long time you will start to see mass layoffs. I know people that stand around car parks helping people park their cars, and there are a lot of these people here... they live sandwich to sandwich, not paycheck to paycheck.

Also, winter is coming here - and winter is hard here, everyone gets sick and gets pneumonia even without this stuff going around........ we heat our house with a single wood fireplace, hows that AC or central heating going? I dont even have a sewage system, we dont have piped gas, we dont even have nationalised ambulances! And where I live is considered one of the best countries in the region.

No, not being flippant, I'm just not crazy about the idea of intentionally exposing the vast majority of the population to accelerate reaching a "herd immunity" plateau. The hospitals and what not cannot compensate for that large of an influx of patients and we will quickly reach a point where a lot of people will not be able to get any kind of treatment. The end result would be a lot of people dying before they can get treated. I'm perfectly okay with letting the economy suffer if that's what it takes to avoid that scenario.

During the great depression in the US, the government was handing out food and supplies to people to make sure they had what they needed to live. Yeah, times were rough for a lot of people. I don't think we'll slide THAT far, but whatever happens, I know we'll get through it. I'm perfectly okay with sacrificing some luxuries if that means i can continue to survive. But, we're not there yet and I really don't think things will get that bad. All of these genius people that bought 10 years of toilet paper can have it. I have enough in my house to last for the better part of a year that I bought long before the virus was even discovered and by the time I'm ready to buy more, I'm quite sure there will be plenty available in stores.

Let be realistic. You're calling it a quarantine, we're calling it "social distancing". I'm free to leave my home and travel around the country. I'm not going to, and I didn't have any prior plans to do so. I've been working from home for the last 6 years and I shop online for most of my things, except groceries. So now I'm buying groceries online and picking up food to go from restaurants and not going out to visit friends and family. My kids are home from school, the school is providing electronic courses and they're still getting their education. The thing is, we're safe. That's what matters most to me.

[matthewfarmery]

The problem with saying that humans survived the Black Death, or the Spanish flu, or stuff like that, is that the world is very different. Mass travel, too much is focused on economics (share markets) and maybe the fear that there going to be another global recession. The world is very different, and a great deal more volatile, especailly when it comes to the USA.

Oh, for God's sake. Why does everyone keep comparing Covid-19 to Black Death or Spanish Flu? The overall death rate from Covid-19 is around 3%. That's bad--it's 20-30x worse than regular flu--but Spanish flu death rates were between 10 and 20%, while Black Death was more like 30%. Covid-19 is not anywhere like as serious. As for the world being different, yes, it is--we have better medical care than we did in either of those incidents. None of that is an excuse for going about business as normal because "it's only the flu", because it's definitely not that simple, but to assume it's the end times is ridiculous.

I was trying to say that the situation between those outbreaks are different, but still we are living in different times. Too much is focused on businesses and the stock exchanges, and ultimately the markets.

I would also say that from listening to the radio, (BBC world service and LBC, That the NHS in the UK is basically stretched to breaking point because of this.

For example, a couple that works in the same hospital in the UK (name of the hospital wasn't disclosed. Now the couple has a son, that was starting to get coughing symptoms. So now, both parents have to stay at home. But the thing is, the Man is a lead researcher of the Coronavirus, while his wife is in the x ray department. So that puts the hospital under great stress. And I doubt that will be isolated incident either. From what people are saying in the front line of this (again in the UK) the NHS can't cope. In fact from another hospital in London, (no name was disclosed) a person who works there, stated that they only have 2 hasmat suits in the entire hospital, and isolation units are outside of it.

If this gets any worse, and it might, especial if it comes back, and there still no cure, IE winter, then seriously, expect the NHS to keel under due to pressure. It's already really bad now. While ultimately we will survive this, but lets say this is just a benchmark for future outbreaks, (I bet a lot of money that will be the case) If we can't handle things now, and from what I'm seeing, we aren't really doing a good job. And its not been helped by certain individuals in high office, so the jury is still out on if they will survive another term. But again, it will just take another outbreak, it doesn't have to be this virus, but another, perhaps more dangerous. If we dont get things together, then when that time comes around again, then the likes of the NHS will be finished. And the death toll will be even higher, because there won't be anyway to treat the infected. You could say this is a warning for things to come.

Like I said, with climate change, and the way that the planet is changing, and for the worst, then viruses like this might end up been more conman. Time will tell if how well we really do in this kind of emergency.

[Mightysword]

Your advise to get off the media is a good one though.

Yes and no. The advice was to get off "mainstream" media, but it really depends on where you are and what your definition of "mainstream" media is. If getting off mainstream media means resorting to the kind of crackpot conspiracy theory media sources that people are usually referring to when they say this, then it's seriously bad advice

That's why the advise included avoiding platforms like facebook/reddit

. If it means getting off sensationalist media channels that are just reporting panic buying and politicising everything (in whatever direction) then yes, it's good advice.

And that's exactly what I meant. Just to give you an example, here is the current front page of cnn.

https://imgur.com/k4uAEbd

And that's actually a lot less than what's usually on there past couple weeks. Fox and others platforms aren't any better. And places like reddit is just a cesspool.

Note that my advise also included of the need staying "informed". That's why I suggested follow official source from municipal and health organizations, place that only want to give you pure and useful information that matter to you. Also in the US particular, the states will tend to be the first line of defense/response in the crisis. The governor of my state had signed several executive orders to cover similar policies discussed at Federal level in short term, that will cover people while waiting for Washington to bring in the big guns. Aside a few exception like New York, mainstream media in the US often don't cover these detail (which I argue more important and matter to most people). Even now before the Federal make the big decision, people can already reach out for help from state level.

[Santi]

Agreeing with others, the main focus should be in saving lives, does not matter the age. You can always rebuild an economy, but cannot bring someone back to life. While an economic concern is a valid point, the truth is that the economy is going to suffer, a lot. And that means that people will lose jobs and face hardships on top of sickness, so the economic main concern should be about people.

In Italy doctors are doing triage, having to decide who lives and who dies, because their health system is collapsed due to the amount of cases.

It is also clear that the elderly with previous conditions are the ones with the highest risk of death, but their chances if countries fail to flatten the curve are very slim, and you can only do that if you reach out and test,and if positive, isolate, and reach out again to those people around that positive and test and isolate and so on. And for that you have to go all out and ignore what it is going to look like or if the news are going to go full sensationalist (we all going to die) on it.

Governments have to act very decisively and employ all the tools at their disposal from day one, right now Italy and Spain are starting to deploy the army, they have plenty of NBC equipment, they have vehicles, food storages, medics, great logistics, campaign hospitals, ambulances.
Yet for the last few weeks, in Spain at least, tests are not being carried out because there are no logistics in place to carry them out (got to the domiciles of people and back to hospital), medical staff suffers from a shortage of masks, gloves and aprons. Beds and exclusive wards for Coronavirus are in short supply. Ambulances and crews are overworked and not being able to transport patients to other hospitals with free capacity, police is patrolling with no masks, gloves, sanitizer either.

Closer to home, the UK, we suppose to "keep London moving", Boris have guaranteed public transport so people can go to work, among others the NHS staff, yet we have no sanitizer wipes even to clean the train radio handset, same for buses, shops and all that are exposed to large crowds of people. It is ridiculous, we are carrying our own house kitchen cleaners sprays to sanitise the equipment.

[Axeface]

I suggest you all fully read this, I just did. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf
Apparently its one of the documents that governments have been using to plan. This was linked on the bbc here https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51952314
Yeh... we're in for the long haul guys.

[RegisterMe]

I suggest you all fully read this, I just did. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf
Apparently its one of the documents that governments have been using to plan. This was linked on the bbc here https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51952314
Yeh... we're in for the long haul guys.

Thanks Axeface, that was an interesting, and sobering, read.

[Aken_Bosch]

In Italy doctors are doing triage, having to decide who lives and who dies, because their health system is collapsed due to the amount of cases.

I've seen this particular piece of news bouncing around from various foreign sources for some time now. But it's still not true. The governor of Lombardy has been warning for days that they're really going dangerously near to be at max capacity and having to resort to triage decisions, it's effectively so and I'm afraid it's just a matter of days (they're prepping up additional structures and beds, but probably they won't be ready in time to avoid at least some initial breakdown of main hospitals), some patients had to be moved to structures in other cities to be properly treated.
We'll probably (sadly) get there, but we aren't there yet.

The above is what has been having many people in Italy deeply concerned with the uncertainty with which the issue has been (is being) tackled with in nearby countries. Italy isn't exactly Burkina Faso (with all respect for the good people living there) when it comes to its health system. The whole of Northern Italy's hospital complexes are reportedly some of the best, in terms of resources, equipment and personnel, in all of Europe (WHO dixit, but I can't but confirm out of very personal experience). And yet, due to a good mix of initially wrong decisions, slowness to react and general lack of respect for rules (mostly at the onset of this), most of our hospitals in the north are now on their knees, and with a worsening outlook on the short term.

This is not a race to who's the bestest country uber alles, we all have some skin in this game, and despite our beliefs that we are in the 2000's and we have computers, spaceships and stuff, best we can do about something like this is basically not at all different from what we could have done a century ago or more. Keep distances, isolate, keep clean, take care.

[Axeface]

I suggest you all fully read this, I just did. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf
Apparently its one of the documents that governments have been using to plan. This was linked on the bbc here https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51952314
Yeh... we're in for the long haul guys.

Thanks Axeface, that was an interesting, and sobering, read.

Yeh it is. I also would like to point out that this document itself outlines increased surveilance with phones... these catalyst events whether natural or orchestrated (as so many are, blatently) are always used to push our society further and further towards dystopia. I have my 2 year old sitting next to me laughing at cartoons and I cant help but feel like screaming.

[Tamina]

It went to next step in my home town. All cashiers are behind glas panels and wear medical gloves, now. Money needs to be placed in a tray. The shopping areas and lines are marked with distance markers (1.5m) and everywhere are signs advising people to keep that distance.

The latter is not really working. Some people try, nearly everyone is completly ignoring it. Even if I wanted to, the person behind me is still breathing in my neck, and while I try to discuss to keep distance as advised, another sees an opportunity to queue jump into the empty spot.

[Vertigo 7]

well people are entitled ass holes.

[Santi]

I've seen this particular piece of news bouncing around from various foreign sources for some time now. But it's still not true.

To be honest the reports of triage I read in the news, as the ones reported in Spain too, come from individuals in the health service, and you are right, it is not a country wide situation that is happening right now, but something that we are close to. Health care workers are under a tremendous pressure to perform and save lives on top of great personal emotional investment. I should've known better that to generalize, based in news focusing on sensationalism.

And yet, due to a good mix of initially wrong decisions, slowness to react and general lack of respect for rules (mostly at the onset of this), most of our hospitals in the north are now on their knees, and with a worsening outlook on the short term.

This is exactly what has happened in Spain and we have the same outlook, even with lots of Spanish people and academics residing in Italy reporting about the situation there and what went wrong, we did exactly the same, government and population. Schools closed, and people took it as a holiday to go out and socialise, travel around, go to second residencies, students going back to their home provinces with no control whatsoever. The Spanish government was very slow in implementing countermeasures to the health crisis, and lax in enforcing the new rules.

This is not a race to who's the bestest country uber alles

My comments never had the intention of defining which was a better country, I apologize if that was the impression you got, it was more about learning from each other, as a Spanish national, I have seem Spain making the same mistakes that Italy, and as a UK resident now, I am seeing the same mistakes all over again. It is frustrating because the people and government, we have references where we can learn from, and not only from Italy, but China, South Korea or Germany.

Already the UK government is complaining that people is not sticking to the guidelines, while at the same time sending messages that it will be sorted out in a few weeks, and at the same time saying that more, tougher measures will have to be implemented.

All cashiers are behind glass panels and wear medical gloves, now. Money needs to be placed in a tray. The shopping areas and lines are marked with distance markers (1.5m) and everywhere are signs advising people to keep that distance.

The latter is not really working. Some people try, nearly everyone is completely ignoring it. Even if I wanted to, the person behind me is still breathing in my neck, and while I try to discuss to keep distance as advised, another sees an opportunity to queue jump into the empty spot.

It is good that the cashiers are being taken care of, something that is not happening in Spain or the UK, really bad that a lot of people do not get the gravity of the situation and the importance of keeping a minimum distance from each other. A situation that is repeating all over the world.

[Aken_Bosch]

Don't worry Santi, my post wasn't absolutely aimed at you or at anyone in general!

[RegisterMe]

Here's something most of us should be able to contribute to:-

https://foldingathome.org/support/faq/i ... s/windows/

[Alan Phipps]

@ RegisterMe: I mistook that link for a spam link at first as that 'Install version 7' page doesn't say what folding at home is for or about.

This might be a better link but that page doesn't include Covid-19 in its target disease list (as yet) and it is not clear if protein folding is relevant to it.

[RegisterMe]

Thanks for that Alan . When you get into the client it does reference COVID-19.

EDIT: Also this - https://foldingathome.org/2020/03/10/covid19-update/