The jasmine revolution spreads?

[imperium3]

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/afric ... 12127.html

According to al-Jazeera, it looks like the protests are spreading through the whole of Libya now. But if the military are this indiscriminate (they are firing sniper rifles directly into the crowd) then I fear it may not last...

[Warenwolf]

Or it may trigger a civil war...




In other news, some have started to speculate that the uprising in egypt, instead of opening new doors for Al Quada may as well be their worst nightmare.

We'll see if these predictions will prove true.

[BeidAmmikon]

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/afric ... 12127.html

"Against this backdrop of violence, opposition groups said around 50 Libyan Muslim leaders have urged security forces to stop killing civilians.
"This is an urgent appeal from religious scholars, intellectuals, and clan elders from Tripoli, Bani Walid, Zintan, Jadu, Msalata, Misrata, Zawiah, and other towns and villages of the western area," the appeal signed by the group of leaders said."

Well, I'm touched. Anybody can write a letter. Everybody writes letters. Letters stop wars. Letters bring life.
Am I being offensive when I assert that these religious people who write letters, who undoubtedly have been working most of their life to bring their peers close to God, should actually help if they joined them, and led them with their chests bared against whichever evil may have fallen upon them? Am I asking too much when I demand an end to disconnection, cowardice and hypocrisy, things that separate us into those who write letters and those who do the bare-chest thingie?

Yeah, me preaching to the crowd again. Well, it's a letter of sorts, you know.

[Warenwolf]

In my country they have a saying - it is easy to be a hero when not in the trenches.

The saying is from ww1 and its meaning has changed through the time but nowadays it is generally applied to those that urge others to heroism or sacrifices.

[BeidAmmikon]

The saying is from ww1 and its meaning has changed through the time but nowadays it is generally applied to those that urge others to heroism or sacrifices.

While it is true that I've never been in position to put my money where my mouth is, and I also pray that I never will be, I know where I stand. Until then, my words are worth exactly anyone else's words.
Meanwhile, the leaders are killing their own people.


China web users call for 'Jasmine Revolution' simultaneously with calls for more Internet oversight.

This isn't looking good. I'm under the impression that big games have been started - there are slow movements on the planet, that will probably end in a free-for-all. And what is the UN doing? Writing letters? Expressing outrage? Is this the beginning of the end for the UN? Will anyone miss it? And anyway, qui bono?
The Internet is portrayed, yet again, as an enemy. In totaliarian states it's being attacked as an enemy of the status quo, and in democratic states as an aid to terrorists.
The kids are out to play, they are armed and dangerous. Sound the alarm.

[Warenwolf]

With news of protests in Morocco, it appears that entire North-Africa is facing or have experienced unrests.

In the most of the near east countries, regimes are facing "rebellious" populations - Kurdish security forces have killed 10 protesters protesting corruption in north of Iraq, anti-riot police in Kuwait have arrested dozens of protesters and in Saudi Arabia the security forces have arrested five activists that have announced creation of that country's first opposition party.

Well, we certainly can dub the 2011 as this century's Year of Revolutions*.


*I personally don't think that the snowball effect of regime changes will happen unless one or two more regimes fall.

[BeidAmmikon]

I personally think that avalanche effect will not happen unless one or two more regimes fall.

More like "critical mass".
For...
?

[Warenwolf]

I changed the sentence so that the meaning of it would be more easily understood.

[Aye Capn]

Or it may trigger a civil war...
the uprising in egypt, instead of opening new doors for Al Quada may as well be their worst nightmare.

We'll see if these predictions will prove true.

If the military is in charge and enjoys popular support there won't be a civil war. If the news report is right the military will also maintain its treaties with the US and Israel.
It's not democracy, but it's not a disaster, either.

@PJKnibbs:
Well you're absolutely right. We need to be careful which regimes we encourage to fall -- and I think the question, "What will the new regime look like?" has gotten far too little attention. That's my primary complaint with fomenting regime change. Change to what? Bush had an answer for Iraq, but nobody had a clue with Iran in '53. The problem's been around a long time: was Napoleon good for France? The well-intentioned European intellectuals who supported him were useful idiots. It's past time to stop repeating this mistake.

Giving democracies a push is wrong on a more fundamental level -- even if it means, for instance, Hamas' ongoing war with Israel. If war is the will of the people then the people have spoken, and if civilian casualties mount as a consequence then there is some marginally just matching of cause to effect, or at the very least an educational experience to be shared by the survivors and acted upon in the next election. If the people repeatedly choose war in the face of continuing defeat that's their democratic prerogative, and whatever happens a majority will have brought it upon themselves.
What happened in the Iranian revolution of '79 was not democracy, just one group of tyrants overthrowing another. It is that I'm suggesting might happen in Egypt should the strongest gang in Tahrir Square become the new boss.

I've never stated outright that I weigh the value of democracy higher than the value of peace, but I do. Even if it means war with Israel and the United States I'm for democracy in Egypt. But without democracy the revolution can go pound sand. Rape gangs are a symptom of streets owned by a mob -- unless a democratic majority believes in legalized rape of women suspected to be Jews, which I refuse to believe of a majority -- a contingent of civilian women were part of Lara Logan's rescuers, after all. But if the streets are owned by gangsters they will be the ones who seize power, making their revolution no better than the status quo from the standpoint of democratic reform and worse from the standpoint of Israel and the United States' ongoing peace with the current Egyptian regime.

Here's another data point on the behavior of the mobs in Tahrir Square. And the first reported hard number of gang-rapists: 200.

[Warenwolf]

My comment had to do with the situation in Libya.

[RegisterMe]

The Miners Strike in the UK, 1984-1985.
The Poll Tax riots in 1990.
The Student Protest of 2010.
The LA riots in 1992 after the Rodney King beating.
The Watts riots in 1965.
The riots in France in 2005 (nearly 9,000 vehicles torched).

The list goes on..... There is a difference between mob rule and a mob, or part of it, losing its mind temporarily. Hopefully the military will introduce democracy, and hopefully the resulting democracy will behave in ways that the west would like (though I'm not at all sure about this). Even if it doesn't you can bet that they will not allow "mob rule" to take over the country.

Anybody who touched a hair on Lara Logan's head should feel the full force of the law.

Anybody sending a blonde female American reporter (I have no idea whether or not she is Jewish, but if she is I would have added that in italics as well) into a situation as volatile as that in Tahir Square is out of their mind.

Should any of those characteristics have anything to do with, well, anything at all? No. But they do. Particularly in a country and period of time in which attacks against reporters generally were becoming alarmingly common. Her presence there was at best a terribly sad and regrettable mistake, and at worst gross negligence. Is it her fault? No. Could it have been prevented? Yes.

Incidentally, I googled "violence against reporters". 7.7 million hits. As distressing as the events in Tahir Square were, reporters are being abducted, assaulted, raped and murdered from Argentina in the south west to China in the north east, and far too many countries in between.

Aye Capn, I hear your outrage, and understand it too (PM sent), but for everybody but Lara Logan and her immediate family current events in the Middle East are of far more weight than the repugnant assault on one woman.

[Aye Capn]

My comment had to do with the situation in Libya.

Oops. I should've realized the odds of civil war in Egypt were low enough no one would seriously suggest it. I'm sorry I didn't read a little more closely.

Here's more evidence that Lara Logan was the canary in the coal mine indicating the co-opting of Egypt's democracy movement by Muslim fundamentalists.

I don't disagree with Reg's desire that the military bring peace, order, and democracy, and the military were the ones who saved Lara Logan from the mob.
My skepticism is aimed at those who believe that what Egypt needs is a "popular revolution" of the kind that would put the people in Tahrir Square in power. The pro-democracy element lacks the will and the numbers to succeed. Wael Ghonim may be the best hope for Egyptian democracy, but he's also a loser in the most basic sense. His feckless faction couldn't get him past the fundamentalists and onto the speaker's podium at a protest he helped organize. What hope could he have for prevailing against the fundamentalists in a popular revolution?
If he gets his act together and organizes a more disciplined force then maybe he's got a chance: it's not over until one side or the other gives up. But right now his side is completely helpless.

[BeidAmmikon]

Wael Ghonim may be the best hope for Egyptian democracy, but he's also a loser in the most basic sense.

Perhaps not so much a loser, as a tool. Where has this guy popped out from, again? Freed Google executive helped spark Egypt revolt
Amidst a rant against Google that Glenn Beck conveyed to his listeners last week, he said something I agree with, approximate quote: "I'd rather have Google give me accurate search results, not be in the business of overthrowing regimes."
Then again, things may be that what one of their employees does in private is his business.

[imperium3]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... e-end.html

Shit just got real in Libya.

Clashes in Tripoli, reports of civilians driving tanks in Benghazi, the defection of at least one elite army unit... good grief. Civil war doesn't look unlikely now.

I think Gaddafi's big mistake was the use of foreign mercenaries - the Libyan Army couldn't stand by forever while foreigners killed their people.

[BeidAmmikon]

Watching the world going to hell in a handbasket...

I've read an article where the author said that the reason for the uprising is different, from country to country. However, I say that there are two things they have in common: the first is that a large section of society has risen against their leaders (corrupt leaders + Omerta = Mafia), and the second is that the leaders have turned against their own people. This sounds like the beginning of a beautiful anarchy, when international relations will be altered, the civilian population will be at the hands of "thugs", the minimal state will barely hold onto supporting itself, and war for various reasons will get closer.
Have I said that I don't like this?
I am therefore calling for a ceasefire, to put one's mind and priorities in order.

[Warenwolf]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... e-end.html

Shit just got real in Libya.

Clashes in Tripoli, reports of civilians driving tanks in Benghazi, the defection of at least one elite army unit... good grief. Civil war doesn't look unlikely now.

I think Gaddafi's big mistake was the use of foreign mercenaries - the Libyan Army couldn't stand by forever while foreigners killed their people.

It appears I have been wrong about dismissing the protests in Libya as too limited in scope.
Gaddafi has awaken to an interesting day:

Tripoli this morning:

Witnesses have reported seeing a central government building on fire while demonstrators have raided the headquarters of state TV.

Eastern Libya:

In another sign of popular resentment toward Gaddafi, the head of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya threatened to cut off oil exports unless authorities stop what he called the "oppression of protesters".

And that crowd with torches he may be seeing outside his palace? They are not there for the tea:

There were also reports of protesters heading to Gaddafi's compound in the city of Al-Zawia near Tripoli, with the intention of burning the building down.

Ok, I must admit I take pleasure in his sufferings. I'll try to be more serious.

I'll quote myself:

I have no illusion about Egypts future even if they overthrow the regime. The people's lot will not improve instantly. Instead Egypt will face years of political instability. Democracy and rule of law are not created overnight.
I foresee 10-20 years of instability before they create strong democratic society (given they manage to overthrow the regime).


Exchange the word Egypt with Libya and you'll have my predictions of that country's future. Of course - throw in a civil war, in which regime is defeated and the country then splits up between various warlords and 10-20 years instability becomes 20-40 years of instability.

Although I am sure with all that oil in Libya - let's be honest - certain powers will make sure that the war doesn't last too long.

[RegisterMe]

What on earth does Cameron think he can achieve by popping up in Egypt?

[philip_hughes]

Well this is getting interesting....

Seems the trouble is restricted to the middle east and *ahem* north Africa. I wonder if some African countries will start rebelling? I also wonder how many small countries with oppressive regimes are within cooee of egypt? How would their respective leaders be feeling currently?

[BeidAmmikon]

I wonder if some African countries will start rebelling?

I think it all depends on the level of centralization there. Of course, the State can send in some armed guys to "pacify" a village in the bottom of the country (and I call that centralization), but the people might be so disconnected from what is going on in the capital that they do not feel the need to change anything.
Go Local comes to mind

[Usenko]

Imagine. Poor old Mr Mugabe might be in trouble.

Poor guy. I think I might have trouble sleeping tonight.