The jasmine revolution spreads?

[brucewarren]

Slightlly OT

Has anyone read Terry Pratchett's "Night Watch". The one set during
the Ankh Morpork Civil War?

Two things in the book struck me:

a) That the real revolution took place behind closed doors in the palace
The stuff on the streets described as "fluff"

b) The weary remark of Mr. Slant the lawyer that the new boss was
exactly the same as the old boss.

I know it's just fiction and I really hope that any parallels between the
book and the situation in Egypt are just coincidental.

[X2-Eliah]

Unfortunately, Pratchett has a remarkable way of placing real-world analogies in his works, and this might be the case. The issue, of course, is that the real world will probably not produce a Vetinari.

Still, these are shaping up to be quite the Interesting Times.. And time will tell whether Pratchett's analogy will apply to this event, and to how large an extent.

/Just a quick peep. Sorry folks, but referencing Discworld is too great a lure for me. ending offtopic.

[Aye Capn]

Rape isn't so bad when it happens to people you disagree with?

The more I learn about the protesters and their allies the more comforted I am by the thought that they did not come to power.

[Warenwolf]

I am trying intellectually to see how you connect events of some guy being jerk in US to the revolution in egypt. And then conclusion of protesters in egypt being evil*.

How US-centric can you get?


*Or is this an attempt to blacken a faction in politics of USA - in that case I would suggest a US forum being more effective arena.

[Aye Capn]

And this is the point in the "conversation" where I grow old waiting for you to prove that the rapists were all American citizens magically transported via the Unicorn of Cognitive Dissonance to the middle of Egypt.

Were you not so quick to lob insults you may have spared yourself the embarrassing revelation of just how poor your reading comprehension actually is.

What I learned about the protesters: some gang-raped a woman while many more stood idly by while it happened.

What I learned about their defenders: they're not above reveling in the Schadenfreude watching one of their designated "enemies of the people" get what she deserved: gang rape.

What I said about what I learned: perfectly applicable to both groups.

Is that simple enough? I can use smaller words if you still don't get it.

[Warenwolf]

And this is the point in the "conversation" where I grow old waiting for you to prove that the rapists were all American citizens magically transported via the Unicorn of Cognitive Dissonance to the middle of Egypt.

You may go very old waiting for that - seeing as I never have made such connections or statements.

For the rest of your post:

I am sorry that you perceived my wondering about your conclusions (seeing that they were based on what I imho saw as extremely scant evidence) as insults on your persona.
While you can accuse me, with some justification, of not respecting your opinions - my opinion of you as person is still being formed.

What I learned about the protesters: some gang-raped a woman while many more stood idly by while it happened.

Unfortunately, we live in imperfect world. In sufficiently large crowd, 1/3 of people will always be a**holes if given the opportunity (don't take this as a scientific statement).
In a crowd of several hundreds of thousands many incidents may and probably have happened of the same character as you have described without being witnessed (or supported) by the most people present.
Malcontents of various types are attracted to such gatherings regardless of the cause of the gathering as we have witnessed many times during similar events.

Via google in just few seconds I found about and read about a similar incident in USA. The incident that happened in California tells us nothing about people living there.

What you have indulged in is the generalization of the people in egypt and their motivations based on the actions of the few who probably are not representative of the motivations the protests in egypt have.

The protests in the egypt are fueled by discontent caused by social and economic conditions imposed by a tyrannical regime. It was certainly not about the right to sexually assault an american women. And the sexual assault on the woman tells us nothing about the causes of the unrest either...

[shifty_powers]

Wow, I don't watch the thread for a little bit and it goes all cheerful and happy

[BeidAmmikon]

With Libya and Morocco, now there's instability to the south of Mediterranean + Iran*. Looks like the international "bodies" are not too/truly concerned. Except several declarations in the vein of "concerned by the reports of excessive use of force by police during demonstrations in X", which amount to exactly nothing.
I see... I see... If this goes on(TM), the next year from now**:
- military leadership in all Arab states, to maintain stability for themselves
- the southern borders of the EU will be closed, to prevent immigration of Muslims
- a crackdown on the Internet, pretty much everywhere. Leaders can only handle that much flow of information between their subjects, that is derived from use of conventional means (mainstream radio, television, newspapers)

* The "revolutionary youth" there should stay put, it's hardly the right moment for such adventures, and I mean it
** 2012, anyone?

[Warenwolf]

Unfortunately it appears that unrest in the most of the arab countries are too limited in scope to cause the avalanche needed to change the region.


edit:

Not that the few protesters have caused the regimes down there to react with restraint. Scared perhaps from the events in Egypt and Tunis, authorities in Bahrain stick to the old "beat them up tactics" - this video was uploaded by Nabeel Rajab from the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC5TYi4WSFc (Some will think that images are too violent, I dont think so, but you have been warned)

[RegisterMe]

If the "international bodies" do anything more than talk nicely they get accused of trampling on the rights of sovreign nations. The alternative being what? Another UN sanctioned (or not, depending on your point of view) invasion of an Arab / Muslim state, this time, openly, to support regime change?

That would be.... a disaster (even assuming that Russia or China didn't simply veto any such resolution).

Tacit, low key support for populations expressing their wishes is about all that can be realistically accomplished here. That's a lousy position to be in, but what's the alternative?

[Warenwolf]

Fully agreeing with your assessment RegisterMe. For the western world in the particular this uprisings in short time appear to be a no-win political game.

[Rive]

... + Iran*. Looks like the international "bodies" are not too/truly concerned. ...

IMHO the actual target behind the scenes is Iran. But Iran is really special - no revolution can be successful (even by changing the regime or changing the course of the regime) with any - I mean: even with suspected - support from the West.

The result is silence and crossed fingers.

IMHO.

[BeidAmmikon]

Yep, I was ashamed to say that I don't know what they should do instead They just sit and wait On the surface, that is, since I believe they are more concerned behind closed doors. These rapid developments have apparently taken the international community by storm. Perhaps scenarios are being run, with the help of AI software, like the USA perform various war scenarios?...

[RegisterMe]

I agree, which is why I was surprised at your initial take on Egypt / the US / Israel. I am absolutely convinced that the commentary from the US to the Egyptian army went along these lines:-

"You get $1.5 billion a year from us in military aid. If you want that to continue you will not interfere or attack civilian protesters".

Low key stuff, for instance providing internet access, supporting the use of anonomous Tweeting, economic sanctions or travel restrictions on the leadership are about the extent of what can realistically be done. There may be some covert agit-prop going on as well but historically that's proven to be pretty unreliable.....

As for US military planning, of course it's going on. It's the job of the military to plan for war in all areas that could impact national life. The Middle East certainly counts. Note that I am not saying that I agree with whatever plans they do or don't have, just that it's their job to have those plans in the first place.

As for AIs, well, military intelligence is an oxymoron etc. You think a military computer would be any better?

[Aye Capn]

And this is the point in the "conversation" where I grow old waiting for you to prove that the rapists were all American citizens magically transported via the Unicorn of Cognitive Dissonance to the middle of Egypt.

You may go very old waiting for that - seeing as I never have made such connections or statements.

Then you need to explain to me how it is "US-Centric" of me to be opposed to the practice of gang-rape by non-Americans. Is it because the victim was American that I earn the title? Pardon me for caring.

What I learned about the protesters: some gang-raped a woman while many more stood idly by while it happened.

Via google in just few seconds I found about and read about a similar incident in USA. The incident that happened in California tells us nothing about people living there.

It does, however, tell us about the people who were actually there. But I do take your point: protesters in other regions of Egypt can't be judged for a gang-rape committed by their fellow travelers in Tahrir Square. But the ones who were there most certainly can be.
The next question is if there is a revolution will it be the protesters in other regions, innocent-until-proven-guilty of gang rape, who take power, or will it be the known gang-rapists and their enablers populating Tahrir Square?

The protests in the egypt are fueled by discontent caused by social and economic conditions imposed by a tyrannical regime.

And also, as it happens, anti-Semitism. She isn't even Jewish, not that it would matter if she were. The protesters were looking for a reason to vent their frustrations through sexual violence, and yelling, "Jew!" gave them that reason. Or perhaps the idea for sexual violence was motivated entirely by their belief she was Jewish. I can't decide which would be worse.

There are a lot of pro-democracy movements that deserve to succeed -- the one in Iran springs immediately to mind. Whatever these thugs in Egypt want it isn't "democracy" in any sense that you or I might understand it. By their actions they seem to want to bring the same kind of madness as the Iranian revolutionaries of 1979.
If that revolution taught us anything it is that the beliefs and motivations of the revolutionaries matter, and not every regime change is necessarily good even if the existing regime is evil. Things can always get worse.

[Warenwolf]

Then you need to explain to me how it is "US-Centric" of me to be opposed to the practice of gang-rape by non-Americans. Is it because the victim was American that I earn the title? Pardon me for caring.

Because you seem to leap to conclusions based on what an American jerk said about the incident. How is his statement relevant to the motivations of the protesters?
Perhaps it is I that jump to the conclusions since I frankly have no idea who these people are or why do you mention them at all.

That said, if I did make wrong connection between passage 1 and 2 in your org. post I do apologize.


Rest of your post is pretty much a big "guilty by asossication" argument.
Unless you have grown in a tiny village without TV you should know that in huge crowds such as those in Cairo there may be events that happen without 99 % of the people noticing (or approving).
How do you think rapes and muggings go unnoticed on concerts? I worked as security at concerts that were far smaller than the event on Tahrir square and believe me rapes and similar incidents do happen, gets noticed (if at all) by few drunk people and by the time we arrived the deed was halfway done (as in girl getting hurt because the rapist couldn't preform and using the beer bottle to hurt her - just to mention one event). Many more events I believe were not noticed and/or reported.
This happened in a crowd of 20 thousand - several magnitudes smaller than the one in Tahrir square.

I also experienced a large fire that the people barely 600 meters of the place where the fire took place did not notice. The reason - the configuration of the terrain and the mass of the people prevented them to visually see what was happening (one can wonder why they did not react to the smoke )
Any sufficiently large crowds also attracts malcontents of various kinds seeking to profit from the chaos.


Which finally leaves your conclusion depending on this particular piece of evidence:
Do you happen to know and have any evidence that all the people on tahrir square were supportive of the assault on the woman?
If you do not - you simply haven't convinced me.



Regarding the Iran - it is just the proof of how western backed regime can produce the most anti-western regime in less of 26 years*. Supporting the dictators will always backfire when the boss gets overthrown.

*Besides, the fact is that Iran had sort of a democracy in 1953 - CIA backed the overthrow of it. In 1979 came the blowback.


PS:
This too happened on Tahrir square:

[ external image ]


So did this too:
The rocks being thrown by and at protesters in clashes with pro-Mubarak rent-a-crowds have been used to form simple symbols of the unity of the faiths in their fight against Mubarak:


[ external image ]

My point of posting these pictures is to show the non-monolithic nature of the protesters on the tahrir square.

[imperium3]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... sformation

Tunisia is still bubbling away, it looks as though the people are still up in arms against the remnants of the old regime. Even if the Western media is largely uninterested these days.

And for dictators everywhere (Beid especially will appreciate this ):


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLllFMF-OkQ

[BeidAmmikon]

And for dictators everywhere (Beid especially will appreciate this ):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLllFMF-OkQ

Yep, mucho appreciado.

[Tycow]

Buh?

[BeidAmmikon]

Buh?

Duh! aka already covered (in ridicule, mostly)