The jasmine revolution spreads?

[travisdh1]

it can't be all bad there

[ external image ]

I'm going to see that image in my sleep whenever I have a nightmare now, thanks a whole bunch LV

Since some view AlBaradai as "the man of" Israel and the US, one would replace a lackey with another

The US messing with anything always makes for bad times, and generally backfiring on us. I wish we'd leave well enough alone.

[Warenwolf]

It seems that the end result of the revolution in Egypt is still unclear.

Army personnel has detained six Al-Jazeera reporters at army checkpoint outside Hilton hotel. (source)

They were later released but their equipment has been confiscated.



In other news, protesters are calling for a million people to take to the streets of Cairo tomorrow to mark the one week anniversary of the demonstrations against Mubarak's regime.




Right now the regime does not appear to be defeated yet.The fact that the present regime is still in power is an evidence of the fact that the army (or the large portions of it) is still supporting the regime.

The significance of this is not lost to the protesters and some of them gave giving the following ultimatum to the army:

"We the people and the youth of Egypt demand that our brothers in the national armed forces clearly define their stance by either lining up with the real legitimacy provided by millions of Egyptians on strike on the streets, or standing in the camp of the regime that has killed our people, terrorized them and stole from them," read the statement.

The protesters say the army has until Thursday morning to make its position clear. A lack of response will be interpreted as support for Egypt's ruling regime.

The march will commence after Friday Muslim prayers and Christian services, according to the statement.

(source)

I think that entire thing may very well be decided very soon one way or another if the protesters future actions mirror their statements.

[mrbadger]

I think that entire thing may very well be decided very soon one way or another if the protesters future actions mirror their statements.

I'm thinking they have no choice. If the regime wins then this revolt becomes something for which they will be punished, even though it's the fault of the rulers that it got bad enough for this to happen.

At the very least there will be a severe reduction in civil rights, probably a never ending curfew.

[Warenwolf]

While I disagree with your prediction of the punishment on the protesters if the revolution fails (you can't punish entire population - probably only the ringleaders will be dealt with) I am fearing that the fallout of the failed revolution will be status quo in ME the next 10-20 years.

[brucewarren]

I don't undertand the logic behind the curfew hours.

Starting at 3pm sounds plain crazy to me.

Unless workers routinely go home at 2:30 over there, surely it will shut
down the economy far more severely than the threatened general strike
would have done.

While I disagree with your prediction of the punishment on the protesters if the revolution fails (you can't punish entire population - probably only the ringleaders will be dealt with)

Maybe not the whole population, but enough people would be made an
"example" of to frighten the rest into submission. Also they wouldn't
care if those "punished" had anything to do with the revolt.
If they followed the Nazi pattern they might actually prefer to execute the
innocent or maybe the families of those involved.

[amtct]

Only 4 pages for the badass riot .This makes me beat the s**t out of my president ...oh wait ,I have to sue the idiot because I'm not allowed to beat him

Damn ,why I can't use my violence when I want

[Warenwolf]

While I disagree with your prediction of the punishment on the protesters if the revolution fails (you can't punish entire population - probably only the ringleaders will be dealt with)

Maybe not the whole population, but enough people would be made an
"example" of to frighten the rest into submission. Also they wouldn't
care if those "punished" had anything to do with the revolt.
If they followed the Nazi pattern they might actually prefer to execute the
innocent or maybe the families of those involved.

Which is pretty much what I said, albeit I did not dwell upon the methodology and effects of a potential crack down.


In other news, the price of the brent crude oil has now reached $100.07 a barrel because the unrest in Egypt.

[RichardDaborn]

Well to act as Devils Advocate once again, the world shouldn't dance around and be happy at whats happening in Egypt. For all we know we may see the birth of another Iran.

Lets all wait and see before we crack open the Champers shall we...

Speaking generally here...

[BeidAmmikon]

I don't undertand the logic behind the curfew hours.
Starting at 3pm sounds plain crazy to me.
Unless workers routinely go home at 2:30 over there [...]

Well, actually...

Oh, and one more thing. Next time someone is about of calling me a 1984-doomsayer or somesuch, let them remember how the Internet was shut down (no matter where) because the people wanted to throw Teh System (no matter why) into the garbage bin, and also about the Internet "kill switch" Bill taken again to the US Congress, mmkay? If it can be done in Egypt, then it can be done everywhere, at any given time, just because YOU and your friends are suspicious and dangerous and domestic extremists.
Now. Cheer up! Enjoy the 'net.

Doomsayer, my @*&... think teh West has got something special - democracy perhaps, or what?

[Warenwolf]

One cannot uphold the status quo indefinitely, RichardDaborn. But you rise a interesting question. Shouldn't the people choose the governments* they want?
By supporting dictators in ME, one just ensures that when they eventually fall, the next regime would be hostile to those that supported the previous regime**.

That being said - a secular anti-western regime in egypt is far more dangerous enemy than a theocratic one...



*On the other hand, a revolution in Egypt may also trigger the similar event in Iran...


**
related to this:

"We have backed the wrong horse for 50 years," said former CIA officer Michael Scheuer. "To think that the Egyptian people are going to forget that we backed dictators for 50 years, I think is a pipe dream."

[imperium3]

The situation is very different to Iran. As I understand it, Iran had an established hierarchy of clergy which was very well respected by the people, hence why a theocracy ensued after the fall of the Shah. Egypt, to my knowledge, has no such system - the mosques are largely state-controlled and I'm not sure that Sunnis are too hot on huge organised clergy systems anyway (speaking from no knowledge here, only because I've never really heard of any high-up Sunni clergy people).

That's not to say that Egypt couldn't end up with an Islamic government (and if it's democratic, what's wrong with that?), but I think that there isn't much chance of the state getting carried away into Talibanesque extremities because the roots for those tendencies just aren't there, Egypt is too modern in comparison to almost medieval societies like Afghanistan.

Also remember that thread a while ago about the Egyptians who started attending Mass to stop suicide bombing nutters from blowing up the Christians? That spirit is still there.

[Warenwolf]

The fact that the present regime is still in power is an evidence of the fact that the army (or the large portions of it) is still supporting the regime.
The significance of this is not lost to the protesters and some of them gave giving the following ultimatum to the army:

"We the people and the youth of Egypt demand that our brothers in the national armed forces clearly define their stance...

(...)

(source)

I think that entire thing may very well be decided very soon one way or another if the protesters future actions mirror their statements.

Update:

The Army (or some elements of it) has responded to the above:

The Egyptian army has said it would not use force against citizens staging protests to force President Hosni Mubarak to step down

In a statement on Monday it said "freedom of expression" was guaranteed to all citizens using peaceful means.

In addition the following was stated too:

Your armed forces, who are aware of the legitimacy of your demands and are keen to assume their responsibility in protecting the nation and the citizens, affirms that freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody."

(source to the statements)

[philip_hughes]

Come on Egypt... Hold your nerve.

Seeing the egyptians have come this far, any potential despot would have to be a little nervous. This is a different world where information spreads at the speed of light. I am quietly optimistic that Egypt will get the ruler it wants.

[amtct]

I am quietly optimistic that Egypt will get the ruler it wants.

After a revolution that is impossible ,trust me,I lived a revolution and now I have to see how history repeats with a president which has the entire power .Now he wants to buy 4,7 milions bullets to stop riots after he saw what happened in Egypt and Tunisia.
The only problem is that here people usually remove the dictator from their lifes literally
That will be interesting because it will happen in EU and NATO

[Bishop149]

Ok, confessing ignorance here.

Why exactly are the Egyptians so pissed at Mubarak?
I'll do some research but I'd like to hear people here's views (do with have any Egyptians?)

What I do know:
- Hes been in power a long time (30 odd years) and his son is poised to take over, looks like a dictatorship to me.

- His opposition isn't as widespread as the demonstrations suggest, the BBC keeps implying that the majority not living in the large populations centers support him.

- I've been to Egypt several times to various bits and it has always struck me as a fairly well run country with a pretty decent standard of living for most.

- There seemed to be a pretty hefty wealth divide between the the rich minority and the poor majority, which also tend falls along religious lines, Muslim = Poor and numerous, Coptic = Rich and few.

- Religious tensions, whilst present seemed to be pretty good natured . . as shown by the numbers of sites of worship shared between both faiths.

Of course my observations have probably been swayed by my tourist perspective but its certainly no oppressive hell hole. .

[Warenwolf]

Ok, confessing ignorance here.

Why exactly are the Egyptians so pissed at Mubarak?
I'll do some research but I'd like to hear people here's views (do with have any Egyptians?)

What I do know:
- Hes been in power a long time (30 odd years) and his son is poised to take over, looks like a dictatorship to me.
.

Absolute power - absolute responsibility for whatever situation your country is in...

[shifty_powers]

Ok, confessing ignorance here.

Why exactly are the Egyptians so pissed at Mubarak?
I'll do some research but I'd like to hear people here's views (do with have any Egyptians?)

What I do know:
- Hes been in power a long time (30 odd years) and his son is poised to take over, looks like a dictatorship to me.

- His opposition isn't as widespread as the demonstrations suggest, the BBC keeps implying that the majority not living in the large populations centers support him.

- I've been to Egypt several times to various bits and it has always struck me as a fairly well run country with a pretty decent standard of living for most.

- There seemed to be a pretty hefty wealth divide between the the rich minority and the poor majority, which also tend falls along religious lines, Muslim = Poor and numerous, Coptic = Rich and few.

- Religious tensions, whilst present seemed to be pretty good natured . . as shown by the numbers of sites of worship shared between both faiths.

Of course my observations have probably been swayed by my tourist perspective but its certainly no oppressive hell hole. .

Think you got a bit of a skewed view of the country from the visit. It actually has a large proportion of it's population in poverty, and people are angry at the long term corruption, despotic rule, nepotism etc...

[Bishop149]

Yeah having done some reading and simplifying greatly;

It would seem that since 1981 the situation has been getting steadily worse with regards to corruption, human rights violations etc. . . no doubt related to the fact that elections have become little more than an act of going through the motions . . .

The Egyptians (a fair few of them anyway) have obviously finally had enough and have been spurred on by witnessing events is Tunisia. . . . good luck to them.

I'd stand by what I said about standard of living though, its really didn't seem too bad overall, especially compared to elsewhere I've been where real poverty is obvious to all.
We made an effort to avoid the tourist traps too and I think we saw a pretty fair cross section through cities of Luxor and Cairo at least (I won't count Sharm, its just a resort!). Can't speak for the countryside but isn't that where Mubarak has his support?

It would seem to me that people do indeed value Standard of living + Freedom more than just standard of living alone . . . quite encouraging really.

[shifty_powers]

http://www.economist.com/node/18010573

Yet the country is also often considered a powder keg. Nearly half of its people live on less than $2 a day. Most of them are under 30

[Bishop149]

http://www.economist.com/node/18010573

Yet the country is also often considered a powder keg. Nearly half of its people live on less than $2 a day. Most of them are under 30

Yeah but 2$ a day translates into about 11EGP (current exchange rate)
Edit: I just checked the exchange rate from the pound hasn't changed much since I was last there. It was about 10EGP:£1 and its now 9.42EGP:£1

What can you by for that?
Well when I was there with a bit of haggling as a tourist I could just about make 1EGP = £1. maybe 80p, it would would get you say a bottle of mineral water. On the other hand 80-100EGP was enough to pay for a pretty lavish 4 course meal for 2 at a half decent (tourist) restaurant (you'd get similar for 50 if you ate with the locals!). . .

Traders never give the tourists quite as good deals as they do the locals so I'm pretty sure if you live there 1EGP > £1.

So based on your figures half the population are on roughly the equivalent of £77 a week. . . . not good but by no means awful.