So i've brought myself back to the forum where only clever people exist. As I am having a mental block, can people share their thoughts and ideas (if they have any ) on the following.
To what extent has there been a genuine transition from a planned to a market economy in China?
To what extent will the current rapid growth in the Chinese economy be sustainable in the future?
I've decided to do a project on China, and have a narrowed down choice between these two questions. Which approach i take depends on how much information i can find. It all sounded great first off, now i've got some good questions, my brain has switched off.
I want to aviod the environmental and resource argument if i can for the second question. Need to make it more economical (i'm only choosing one of these questions).
For the first question, i will certainly mention privatisation, and regional blocks, special economic zones and so forth. Can anyone share their insights or opinions on this topic?
Also a good China bashing on their economic sustainability is quite welcome, we don't want the commy's to win!
Apocholypse wrote:So your saying declining exports and economic protectionism could hinder growth, okay *jots that down*
No ,I'm saying the planet is full of people who like to have something cheap and bad made than something well made but more expensive than the crappy one
Growth can be sustainable only with at least one of the two following factors: growth of demand (and subsequent cash influx) of export goods, or, growth of utilizable resources.
I am not certain on the demand part - since Taiwan and other 'near-China, Asian' countries are taking up the spot, at least for electronics, and I haven't noticed them getting more resources lately, beyond humaniform biological being numbers.
If they are basing their growth on anything else, it is not a growth, it is a bubble. Doubly so if it involves real estate machinations on a large scale.
Of course, political factors are also to be considered.
A good source is BBC Asia / stock market etc... . Out of the land down under. But requiers patience you'll be dealing with television scheduling .
Most likely weekend's are best .
Europe 2009 -> + 30,000 factories
China 2009 -> +10000 factories
USA 2009 -> +25,000 factories
Growth in %
Europe 2009 -> 1%
China 2009 -> 10%
USA 2009 -> 1.25%
So, in terms of growth, China is AMAZING, +10%, hell, look at Europe or the USA, they got only 1%/1.25%, that's a LOL growth.
No wonder that they love percentage as indicators. (It's a very very very easy example, I know, but I think it fits pretty good.)
So, as a conclusion: of course the growth in demand / ressources is higher (in %) when it was close to zero before, compared to where it is quite high since a few decades. I'd appreciate it when they would compare total numbers instead of percentages. It's even a joke that China is still counted as a LDC (less developed country), we put truckloads of money into that country as help for LDC, although they 'destroy' our own economy with their low wage policy AND their currency 'frauds'. It's not really fun, but for some reason everyone loves China and supports them on their way of destruction.
It's a big, a VERY big, bubble that's in the making over there, they are about to be skyrocketed from middle age into modern age, this will result in a BIG BANG when people start to really! increase their demands, in terms of quality of life, future security and a high standard of living.
It's no good, but well, as long as they 'wait' with the explosion until at least 2015 it's all fine with me, then I'm out of debts to anyone and don't care about anything happening in the world anymore. =)
... what is a drop of rain, compared to the storm? ... what is a thought, compared to the mind? ... our unity is full of wonder which your tiny individualism cannot even conceive ... I've heard it all before ... you're saying nothing new ... I thought I saw a rainbow ... but I guess it wasn't true ... you cannot make me listen ... I cannot make you hear ... you find your way to heaven ... I'll meet you when you're there ...
Europe 2009 -> + 30,000 factories
China 2009 -> +10000 factories
USA 2009 -> +25,000 factories
Growth in %
Europe 2009 -> 1%
China 2009 -> 10%
USA 2009 -> 1.25%
So, in terms of growth, China is AMAZING, +10%, hell, look at Europe or the USA, they got only 1%/1.25%, that's a LOL growth.
No wonder that they love percentage as indicators. (It's a very very very easy example, I know, but I think it fits pretty good.)
So, as a conclusion: of course the growth in demand / ressources is higher (in %) when it was close to zero before, compared to where it is quite high since a few decades. I'd appreciate it when they would compare total numbers instead of percentages. It's even a joke that China is still counted as a LDC (less developed country), we put truckloads of money into that country as help for LDC, although they 'destroy' our own economy with their low wage policy AND their currency 'frauds'. It's not really fun, but for some reason everyone loves China and supports them on their way of destruction.
It's a big, a VERY big, bubble that's in the making over there, they are about to be skyrocketed from middle age into modern age, this will result in a BIG BANG when people start to really! increase their demands, in terms of quality of life, future security and a high standard of living.
It's no good, but well, as long as they 'wait' with the explosion until at least 2015 it's all fine with me, then I'm out of debts to anyone and don't care about anything happening in the world anymore. =)
Check the lists. China have an enourmous industrial base. And it's terrifying as it competes against westernproduced goods everincreasingly.
The US have handled the Chinese rise pretty poor, where they have de facto destroyed their production base while strenghtening Chinas with their purchasing power.
The perception that China is still in the middle ages is atleast 30 years off, and only valid for North Korea. For pete's sake, look at Three Gorges Dam... Marvellous piece of engineering.
This century is Chinas if nothing rocks their boat.
Sure glad I didn't purchase a new computer this release.
Patholos wrote:The perception that China is still in the middle ages is atleast 30 years off, and only valid for North Korea. For pete's sake, look at Three Gorges Dam... Marvellous piece of engineering.
This century is Chinas if nothing rocks their boat.
You mean that economy rise is good but do you know where all the money go?Comunism is not like capitalism where if your country has a good economy you have a "good wallet" .Also how many people live there and what's the GDP per person
On the paper all looks very good ,but when you "read the entire story" the papers starts to look more like a papyrus.
I know the numbers, and it's still a farce that China is treated as a LDC.
'We' simply made the mistake and thought 'we' could handle China the same way as Africa. Didn't work .
The main problem for 'our' part of the world is, we said goodbye to the 'real' industry, the 'producing' one and concentrate more and more on rendering of services while outsourcing the revenue creating industry. All the good old 'made in Germany' or 'made in UK' -> switched to 'made in China' and sometimes it's 'made in China - developed in <insert country here>'. It's usually not a problem when stuff is being outsourced, but you got people losing their jobs and income, and then you try to sell the much cheaper produced stuff back in the home country for the old 'high' prices, but you're suddenly missing the people that can afford that stuff. That's not going to work.
The positive aspects should not be forgotten though, in a few decades China is so high developed and expensive, while Europe is a third world region that all the companies come back. The so called 'Circle of Economy'. Another positive aspect is: China is doing it right with supporting Africa, with REAL support, not only giving money to dictators to buy weapons for.
The so called 'western world' made quite a few mistakes in the last decades, and now it's backfiring. This will hurt for the next few decades, maybe even longer. On the other hand, the last option of course: a war. But even this will be lost when the 'Chinese Wall' starts to move.
But as told before, China will crumble as soon as people want to reach a higher standard of living ... this is the end of the fairy tale.
... what is a drop of rain, compared to the storm? ... what is a thought, compared to the mind? ... our unity is full of wonder which your tiny individualism cannot even conceive ... I've heard it all before ... you're saying nothing new ... I thought I saw a rainbow ... but I guess it wasn't true ... you cannot make me listen ... I cannot make you hear ... you find your way to heaven ... I'll meet you when you're there ...
Patholos wrote:The perception that China is still in the middle ages is atleast 30 years off, and only valid for North Korea. For pete's sake, look at Three Gorges Dam... Marvellous piece of engineering.
This century is Chinas if nothing rocks their boat.
You mean that economy rise is good but do you know where all the money go?Comunism is not like capitalism where if your country has a good economy you have a "good wallet" .Also how many people live there and what's the GDP per person
On the paper all looks very good ,but when you "read the entire story" the papers starts to look more like a papyrus.
Granted, the money is not very well spread out. In the last great communistic nation, China goes surging forward as a beacon of raw turbocapitalism where the wealth is distributed on very few.
Regardless of that, Chinas inhabitants on a whole have gotten richer than under Mao where his insane theories on economy killed far more than bullets ever did.
And communism in china? Please... They've not been communistic in years, if you disregard the rather heavyhanded justice and censorship. They've fully adopted capitalism, not democracy.
I've read most of the story, and for me it states: China produces most of the goods, western world buys most of the stuff with money fresh out of the printer.
Who's likely to fall first?
Sure glad I didn't purchase a new computer this release.
silenced wrote:
The so called 'western world' made quite a few mistakes in the last decades, and now it's backfiring. This will hurt for the next few decades, maybe even longer. On the other hand, the last option of course: a war. But even this will be lost when the 'Chinese Wall' starts to move.
Yup, we went soft. The west needs to reclaim its production base and healthy economy by stimulating real industry and sensible financial policies.
Sure glad I didn't purchase a new computer this release.
I live in an ex comunist country and I know how they do it and like in all comunist countries everything is ok till something happens (let's say some people drink some beers and start a riot ) .You get cheap stuffs ,the country (China) gets s**t loads of money ,the statistics look good but the reality is crappy like the products made there.
@silenced
I have T-shirts and shoes with the mark "made in Germany"
China's economy is anything but communist. And chances are a lot of products around you that you would consider high quality were made in China. Your stereotype that all Chinese products are "crap" is quite simply wrong.
A) To what extent has there been a genuine transition from a planned to a market economy in China?
Stopped halfway there is the proper answer.
Planned economy is a failure (look past communist economies) for a multitude of reasons the main being that protectionism hinders economic growth in the long run and it neuters innovation; other reasons are important too, lack of flexibility and adaptability being the main contributors.
Obviously China has left such policies behind and embraced a pure capitalistic economic model, the problem is corruption and that's where the remainder of the 'planned' economy rests.
In short, if you don't have connections with the Communist party you cannot do business in China; either you will not be given a permit or you will be always sidelined by someone who has a connection there.
Thus the Chinese internal market is a nightmare to maneuver and this is the reason why foreign corporations have such difficulty penetrating the Chinese market.
2) To what extent will the current rapid growth in the Chinese economy be sustainable to the future?
It won't be, in the short term we will continue to see growth but the Chinese industrial sector has already reached it's peak and is now falling; current growth is based mainly on infrastructure development and the housing sector.
China is in the middle of a bubble and everyone knows it, most of the money that went into China with it's surplus went to infrastructure development and the housing sector.
The chinese housing sector is the biggest bubble right now, the average prices for a house in china are too high for the average Chinese the result is that no one buys the new houses, leaving entire cities empty (google Chinese empty city for an example), unless the Chinese government takes step this bubble will burst.
Infastructure, China is still behind most western nations in infrastructure and the advances in the infrastructure sector are what keep the chinese growth soaring but infrastructure has a limit that it will soon reach.
Furthermore, the Chinese population is aging rapidly; when a country has a billion and four hundred million populace someone can say that the population won't be a problem but it will be a problem for the Chinese as it will be for the Europeans, in a decade more than 300 million chinese will be in advanced age incapable to contribute to the economy and being a burden for the state, by 2050 it is estimated that 50% of the Chinese populace will be retirees.
@amtct
I have been working past six months for a company that does lot of business with china* - your assumptions of Chinese economy is waaay off.
They are party dictatorship and only remains of communism in their economy is that of controlled currency value (which again is related to their exports policy). I know very well what planned economy is and what china has is nowhere near what communist run economy is.
What Dragoongfa said about connections is also true - however the same rules apply to most east European country today and don't even get me started on the "Russian experience"...
*let just say that a very popular status product among western teenagers have components produced in china. The company I work for did some of the work on design while nowdays entire assembly line is in china. Then the product is put in the box in certain European country. And I really mean that only thing done in Europe is packaging... So yes china produces lot of crap but people would be surprised of how many high value products are made in china these days.
Anyway, with help of kind people from wikileaks, we got here a nice analyses of china's future. Parts of it are relevant to the discussion on this thread: LOOKING AT THE NEXT 30 YEARS OF THE U.S.-CHINA
@Warenwolf
You say "comunism" like "comunism" it really exists as a way of governance*.Comunism is not a dictator and if you get rid of that guy everything comes to normal.There can't be normal economy in a comunist country .
If you live lets say in US or other country like that ,if you hear "comunism " you make the connection with the dictator which is not true.A comunist country is like the Sicilian mafia families where you can enter easy but its hard to get out.You can't have a normal business without paying something to someone ,so please do not compare that to normal economies .If you want the true side of their economy ask the chinese people .They will tell you the truth about their so called economy ,not a company .
*IMO its a way of f****g people's lifes ,not a way of governance .
The Chinese economy is comprised of privately-owned, profit-seeking corporations. That's the definition of capitalism.
It's funny you're so much against communism that you see a very capitalistic country as communist simply because the ruling party brands itself so.
Elucca wrote:The Chinese economy is comprised of semi private, profit-seeking, government connected corporations. That's the definition of chinese capitalism.
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