Syria

[felter]

I'm quite surprised no one has started a discussion on Syria so here we go, I thought I would.

Anyway things have been moving pretty darn fast in around 10 days HTS as they are known has thrown the country into chaos but more than that right now it is being reported that they are fighting inside Damascus and that the Syrian army personnel are removing their uniforms as they have been told the regime has fallen. Meanwhile, it is also looking like Assad has run away, as it's being reported that a personal plane has left the Damascus airport, and it is suspected he was onboard shame he has not been caught I would really like him to appear at the ICC for crimes against humanity.

A lot of this could be just rumours as it is pretty hard to know exactly what is going on, but even if we don't know exactly, it is looking like Assad's time is finally over. This is also not good news for Russia, as they have their one and only naval port in the med based in Syria, and as seeing as they have been killing the new rulers for the past 10 or so years, something tells me that base is not going to exist for too much longer.

[clakclak]

So I have heard some times now that Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has become more moderate over the last years. Is there actually any concrete evidence for it? The best evidence I heard for this actually being true, are the reports of how they treated people in the newly conquered areas (apparently so far pretty well, at least well when considering the level of violence we have seen in the conflict so far. They establishment order and while they do certainly assert their control, there seems to have been no widespread looting or prosecution of non Sunni Muslism (or non Muslims for that matter).) I found that a bit surprising given the groups origin.

[felter]

I know little to nothing about any of the groups in Syria, only time will tell what's going to happen, but at least I hope for the sake of Syrians that this spells the end of what's been happening these past 54 years and that there might now be some kind of peace. Trump said what's happening in Syria is a mess, I say it's hope for a better future for the citizens of Syria.

Here's a random thought, this would not be happening if it wasn't for the war in Ukraine, which is turning into the worst mistake a Russian has ever made as they are currently losing everything.

It's also being confirmed that Assad has run away to some unknown destination, it turns out he was on that plane that left.

[Observe]

Well, that seemed amazingly quick! As for that Russian naval base, it looks like they can kiss it goodbye.

this would not be happening if it wasn't for the war in Ukraine

Likely very true. I know nothing about the Tahrir al-Sham, but they certainly knew when and how to move.

[mr.WHO]

Personally, it felt like 5 different Prigozin marches on Damascus, competing with eachother, who will reach it first and Assad forces were almost ignored.

Important note about Syria - it was the transition point for Russia air-bridge to Africa. Without it, their operations there will be greatly reduced.

Now we just need to wait till Russian soldiers notice, that they have higher survival and success rate storming Moscow, that going into MeatWavesTM.

[EGO_Aut]

Personally, I fear a failed-state fate like Libya, and another betrayal of the Kurds. It would be interesting to know where the rebels got their weapons from, would be somewhat ironic if RU was beaten at its own game.

Btw what happend with the shot(?) down airplane, some rumors say Assad was in it.

[clakclak]

Personally, I fear a failed-state fate like Libya, and another betrayal of the Kurds. It would be interesting to know where the rebels got their weapons from, would be somewhat ironic if RU was beaten at its own game.

Btw what happend with the shot(?) down airplane, some rumors say Assad was in it.

Don‘t know anything about the airplane, but when it comes to weapons they are most likely flowing across the borders from Iraq and Turkey or using what is already in the country. HTS has proven very effective, but they ‚only‘ have around 20.000 fighters. Given the availability of light weapons and potential money from Turkey + other Islamist groups and potential other state sponsors lime Qatar, it is not to hard to image them going on a shopping spree in the various arms markets of Syria and Iraq.

[burger1]

Number of rumours about the plane. Some say Russia shot it down with s300 some say it did a u turn then crashed. Need to wait and even then the story might be fake. Surprised Ukraine didn't take the opportunity to sink some Russian ships and blow up some planes. Small country with short distances.

Still have a chemical weapons depot and Russian bases.

Russia evacuating supplies, planes, etc... that can be used in Ukraine.

Iran had mobilized their military at some point a couple days ago.

Israel warning Syrian rebels not to attack them.

Russian, Iran, etc... did ask the rebels to stop attacking. Which seemed funny.

Might be time to take other Russian areas? Moldova, etc...

Russia can't fulfill it's defence obligations to other countries.

[EGO_Aut]

Assad is in Moskau.

Now its Erdogan turn, to make Osmans great again.

[Falcrack]

Anybody else find it just a bit odd that the first thing the US, Israel, and Turkey do after the fall of Assad is to bomb the crap out of Syria?

[burger1]

Anybody else find it just a bit odd that the first thing the US, Israel, and Turkey do after the fall of Assad is to bomb the crap out of Syria?

Not all Assad forces have likely surrendered.

Chemical weapon depots and stuff would likely be used against Israel given that the situation has changed since the start of the war.

The rebels aren't attacking Russian bases. They have made at least a temporary agreement with Russia. As long as there's Russian bases/influence in Syria they haven't won the war.

The Syrian rebels still need to clean house if they want change. Might not be our idea of a relatively good change.

[Falcrack]

I think Israel is laying the foundations for future war with their bombing of Syria following the fall of Assad. It does not seem smart at all. Instead of doing what they could to try to have a good relationship with whatever new Syrian leadership emerges from this, they take advantage of the temporary chaos to try to dismantle whatever was left of Syria's military through a bombing campaign, and to create a new buffer zone for their existing buffer zone (the Golan Heights). I think this will come back to bite them hard in the future.

[EGO_Aut]

Don't you think attacks help negotiate a peace treaty or help a war criminal stay in power?

[burger1]

There isn't one rebel group. Think of Syria like a jigsaw puzzle with over 7 large pieces. There's like 4-8+ main groups that hold territory in Syria. Some are Isis and other factions. Don't want chemical weapons in any of their hands. Different people bombed different factions. US bombed Isis positions. More than one faction attacked Assad's faction. Also have no idea who will get what areas and when so risky. There isn't one united Syria.

[Chips]

Anybody else find it just a bit odd that the first thing the US, Israel, and Turkey do after the fall of Assad is to bomb the crap out of Syria?

It's been answered already, but it wasn't odd at all. Imagine any form of Anti Aircraft missile system falling into hands that may wish to harm others without regards. Less attack Israel, more take over border elsewhere and start shooting down civilian planes...

Similar with the torpedo boats in the harbour, though those'd be easier to track one imagines.