German government crisis, finance minister apparently fired, potential new elections

[clakclak]

According to German news agencies, chancellor Olaf Scholz has just fired finance minister Christian Lindner, after Lindner suggested new elections in Germany in the wake of Trump winning the American elections.

Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... c0cb7d76f5

English language news are still updating, but here is a Reuters with a short article: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 024-11-06/



Short summary of the German government.

The government is made up of a three way coalition between:

1) SPD - Social Democrats and the biggest party in the coalition. Scholz is part of the SPD. Politically similar to the various labour parties you find in some English speaking countries

2) The Greens - Green party, politically otherwise similarish to the SPD (center left). Second biggest party in the coaltion.

3) FDP - Liberals. Aligned with the other two on most social issues, but with vastly different ideas on how the economy should be run (laissez faire light). The finance minister that was fired is the head of this party.

Now this coalition has struggled for a long time, who is to blame for that is a question of personal political opinion and not one I want to get into here right now as it is not really important short term for what is about to happen.

[mr.WHO]

When you think 2024 was a crazy ride...





...and when you had that feeling every year since 2019.

[chew-ie]

Was about time somebody stopped that guy. Both Lindner and the FDP were a major PITA and blocked a lot of needed changes while only being a small minority in that coalition.

Now that the result of their constant blocking hints for new ruling coalition they started to undermine the government in order to position themselves and snuggle up to the CDU.

So all the past crucial months were wasted with the FDP and especially Lindner playing around instead of falling in line and help the country. It's only fair that Olaf Scholz now played the enough is enough card. I just had hoped he would have done this sooner. Like a lot of other things.

[linolafett]

I am not looking forward the elections, as the right wing party had a huge wave of success in recent regional elections.

[Rnett]

It's refreshing to see a more reasonable thread on politics.

[clakclak]

It seems to be official now. Germany will hold new elections in February.

This will without a doubt be an eventful election season.

Edit: And things are allready off to an interesting start. Gundolf Siebeke, member of the CDU (Christian Democratic Party, mostly known outside Germany for Angela Merkel), just suggested that it might be time to reconsider if woman should have the right to vote should the Green Part win the next election. To be honest, I doubt very strongly that the Green party will be anywhere near an election victory, but comments like this in a country with more woman than man are a bold new strategy for the CDU. The CDU might just be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if they continue down that particular path.

[clakclak]

So now that the dust has settled a bit let's take a look at the three most likely candidates for Chancellor ranked by how likely they are to actually get the position:

1. Friedrich Merz

Political Party: Christian Democratic Union

Overall Political Lean: Socially Conservative; Economically Neo-Liberal

Biggest asset going into the election: He is not Olaf Scholz; Percieved as a Pro-Economy Candidate; Seen as someone willing to make tough decisions if needed; Pretty clear about what he wants to do

Biggest problems going into the election: He has the charisma and tact of Mr. Burns from the Simpsons; Might get stabbed in the back by Markus Söder; Often percieved as sexist and not well liked by woman, especially young woman (according to Stern only 9% of woman aged 18-29 would vote him)


2. Olaf Scholz

Political Party: Social Democratic Party

Overall Political Lean: Assumed Social Democratic he does not really talk a lot about politics

Biggest asset going into the election: Has been chancellor before so is a known quantity

Biggest problems going into the election: Is Olaf Scholz; Somehow less charisma than Merz; His government was riddled by infighting and eventually exploded; Questionable support by his own party; Is dislike by a broad majority of the country


3. Robert Habeck

Political Party: The Green Party

Overall Political Lean: Socially Progressive, Economically Social Democratic, Ecologically: Rationalist Green (in that there are far more radical voices in his party)

Biggest asset going into the election: The party is nearly 100% behind him to the point where Putin would be envious of his support level; Did not get as much flak for the implosion of the government as Scholz and Lindner; Often seems a bit more level headed than Merz; illicites an emotional response from people (see Biggest problems)

Biggest problems going into the election: The emotional response he gets is mostly blind rage and hate; Is member of the Green party which is not well liked by many people; Is often percieved as an arrogant know it all who wants to ban stuff

[chew-ie]

Curious when BSW will announce their candidate