Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Now this looks more and more surreal - they poped the lid themselves

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-J-L2FeRSVU

[Usenko]

Now this looks more and more surreal - they poped the lid themselves

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-J-L2FeRSVU

Nice going guys!

[fiksal]

in the second video I have heard in Russian - "where did it fly to?"

in the other, there's a mix of Russian and maybe Chechen

[Usenko]

I heard Turkish in one video, though the words in question are likely to be similar in most Turkic languages, so it might refer to Turkic minorities in the Russian Federation rather than actual Turks.

[burger1]

Kerch Bridge might be soon. They hit stuff next to it. Some more ships hit, some more planes blown up/crashed. Russian supply lines being further constrained by Ukraine as Ukraine moves further towards Crimea.

Russian-held Crimea halts civilian gasoline sales as Ukraine attacks fuel supplies

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/crimea-ha ... -9.7243579

Officials in Russia-occupied Crimea suspended civilian gasoline sales Sunday as Ukraine ramped up attacks on fuel supplies on the Black Sea peninsula.

Gov. Sergey Aksyonov, the Kremlin-appointed head of Crimea, said that overnight Ukrainian strikes killed four people and wounded 28 others. He did not specify the target of the attack.

He later wrote on social media that local gas stations would halt all sales to non-state companies and individuals for an undefined period.

Keir Starmer to step down as prime minister two years after historic election victory

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-minister

Bulgaria to stop sending weapons to Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/bulgaria-ukr ... 0699a027a7
Bulgaria will not send any more weapons to Ukraine, the Balkan country’s Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said on Tuesday.

“We have already made it clear that the war in Ukraine will not be resolved on the battlefield,” Stoyanov told reporters in Sofia. “What we are witnessing is a war of attrition, and no matter how much weaponry is amassed, its only result is the loss of human lives.”

[mr.WHO]

Looks like Flamingo season has started in full

[Warenwolf]

Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, the United States has warned.

Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones or Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory.

I have heard that US intel is in shambles after almost two years with Trump so...who knows?

Source:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... e-us-warns

[mr.WHO]

Let them try - even, if they succeed, we have enough stockpiles to turn Kalinigrad into pile of rubble and then start bombing everything from borded into general Minsk direction.

Plus, with drone incursion from last year, we really speed up our own drone and anti-drone programs - they are beign deployed as of this year - not yet ready for full scale war, but an incursion?
How nice for Russian to give us realistic test & tutorial run.

[Warenwolf]

Let them try - even, if they succeed, we have enough stockpiles to turn Kalinigrad into pile of rubble and then start bombing everything from borded into general Minsk direction.

Plus, with drone incursion from last year, we really speed up our own drone and anti-drone programs - they are beign deployed as of this year - not yet ready for full scale war, but an incursion?
How nice for Russian to give us realistic test & tutorial run.

I don't think it is about Poles responding (nor do I think this will be conventional attack) is what Kremlin would be testing but rather the response of other NATO countries (whether other countries go full red alert mode). I think after the "10 to 14 day" special operation that goes these days into/over 1500 days of war will go back to hybrid operations and salami tactics.

[mr.WHO]

I don't think it is about Poles responding (nor do I think this will be conventional attack) is what Kremlin would be testing but rather the response of other NATO countries (whether other countries go full red alert mode). I think after the "10 to 14 day" special operation that goes these days into/over 1500 days of war will go back to hybrid operations and salami tactics.

People forgot that Poland, Baltics and NATO were already under hybrid operations attack for over a year before war, with Belarus dumbing thousands of migrants over the border. We're used to it.
People also forgot dozen and dozens of factories and other facilities mysteriously burning all over Europe, undersea cable cuts, GPS jamming, drone incursions over military bases.
There are also daily cyber attacks.


NATO is no stranger to hybrid war, despite what Social Media brainlets try to sell you.
Russia already antagonized enough of NATO contries, that there will be plenty o countries that say f*ck it, FAFO!
We can play this game too! It doesn't have to be direct military intervention.
Imagine 20+ countries plotting and executing their own hybrid attacks - if Russian want to have Spiderweb as monthly event, then be it.


Edit: I realized that Russia is now basically at North Korea level - Kim and NK is also thretening, saber rattling and even do direct attacks against South Korea every few years.
Baltic Line already drifting towards DMZ already, if I recall correctly, production of mines to be deployed there has already started.

[chew-ie]

People forgot that Poland, Baltics and NATO were already under hybrid operations attack for over a year before war, with Belarus dumbing thousands of migrants over the border. We're used to it.
People also forgot dozen and dozens of factories and other facilities mysteriously burning all over Europe, undersea cable cuts, GPS jamming, drone incursions over military bases.
There are also daily cyber attacks.

Indeed. They even bought two political parties in our country, trying to get more direct control over Germany.

[Warenwolf]

People forgot that Poland, Baltics and NATO were already under hybrid operations attack for over a year before war, with Belarus dumbing thousands of migrants over the border. We're used to it.
People also forgot dozen and dozens of factories and other facilities mysteriously burning all over Europe, undersea cable cuts, GPS jamming, drone incursions over military bases.
There are also daily cyber attacks.

I hope you are not including me on that list since only cursory look through this thread and other topics can show you me warning about this even before the latest war. With disparagement from some users that are no longer active and some that are.

Point being is that these warnings come from intel services and not social media influencers. No further comment beside that.

[fiksal]

Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, the United States has warned.

Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones or Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory.

I have heard that US intel is in shambles after almost two years with Trump so...who knows?

Source:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... e-us-warns

as implausible as it sounds, there are two things that come to mind
- US / NATO spies were right about the invasion of Ukraine (the latest one specifically)
- years ago I have read propaganda claiming that NATO will not defend Poland, and Baltic states. A message that was repeated several times as "should be obvious" that "this is a Russian sphere"

so you know, we can laugh, but better be ready

[mr.WHO]

First sea convoy decimation since WW2?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHw7e_vBYzc

[fiksal]

news from inside:
there are noticable strikes deep into Russia, in Siberia (a 4hr flight from Moscow)

there are some targets potentially there, a weapons factory, an aircraft factory, a chemical factory

[burger1]

Might be over 35 hit ships today? There's ~4024 oil tankers currently active world wide and maybe 1240 or so in the russian shadow fleet. There's also very different sized ships. Some double as spy ships. This isn't uncommon even with fishing vessels where they can spy and even act as military ships if the need arises.

Some larger refineries hit. Not sure if this was the big one

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA27C5eQ

Ukraine is doing a 40 days 40 nights program. Lots of stuff being blown up every day and Ukraine's advancing. Hopefully at not too much of a cost.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk ... r-AA26BnGw

Ukraine might be allowed to make Patriot missiles since trump doesn't care

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ze ... r-AA27wRwd

Volodymyr Zelensky has reached a political agreement with Donald Trump on licences to produce Patriot missiles.

Zelensky might have been told not to make main speeches (?) in order to try to not upset trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/art ... 52378.html

More problematically still for Zelensky are reports that he will not be part of the main summit the next day and will not, as in previous years, make a barnstorming address to Nato's leaders. Instead, the alliance has opted to keep Zelensky and the whole Ukraine issue on the sidelines for fear of upsetting Trump.

[Chips]

Ukraine might be allowed to make Patriot missiles since trump doesn't care

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ze ... r-AA27wRwd

Volodymyr Zelensky has reached a political agreement with Donald Trump on licences to produce Patriot missiles.

More problematically still for Zelensky are reports that he will not be part of the main summit the next day and will not, as in previous years, make a barnstorming address to Nato's leaders. Instead, the alliance has opted to keep Zelensky and the whole Ukraine issue on the sidelines for fear of upsetting Trump.

The patriot license is probably the best thing heard in a while... though what the cost will be, who knows.

As for not upsetting Trump, not necessarily a bad thing given the temper tantrum egolord and the odd small win that's been achieved. A barnstorming address is for the public. Given a few diplomatic gaffs that look like horrific own goals (battalion name putting a real thorn into Ukraine/Poland relations), why take the risk of potentially having another - what'd be gained? The leadership already know everything that'd be said... so it serves little purpose, and the risks too great.

[mr.WHO]

Absolute cinema!
"Russian Anti-Drone Training Goes Wrong":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71oYQdgR_T8

[fiksal]

highly effective when you are attacked by wasps

[Alan Phipps]

Who would design a manual rotation high recoil gun mount with the single weapon axis so far off the centre-line of the mount? Not good for stability and accuracy.

I do applaud the coolness (under fire) of the instructor/supervisor though. Also absolutely great mount rotation bearings!

Was this really novice operator training on in-service kit or more improvised equipment test and design? I would think that an instructor who had used it themselves, or even just seen it used a lot, might know what to expect and be a bit more prepared/cautious in their positioning.