Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

The EU has approved that €90 Billion loan to Ukraine, the one that Orbán was blocking. I'm going to say Russia has now lost the war as this gives Ukraine enough cash to carry on fighting for at least another year, meanwhile Russia is struggling on all sides, they are losing more soldiers than they can now recruit, they have serious oil issues as Ukraine keeps blowing up their oil depots, while they are running out of money, literally.

Their cash problems are so bad that they are now selling their gold reserves to China, the only reason for Russia to do this is that they don't have any money left, it's a last chance option.

Russia are currently only managing to recruit around 25K new soldiers per month and the amount they are paying new recruits has drastically dropped, while Ukraine are killing/injuring around 35-40K per month. They think he will enforce a massive subscription after this May's so-called victory parade, I think if he does that it will probably more than likely be the final nail in the coffin for most Russians.

The Russian populace has had enough while more and more Russians are openly complaining as there is no fuel and the shop shelves are empty, and their internet is down more than up, while every time they do look up into the skies they see Ukrainian drones and missiles fly past, and it is scaring the hell out of them. It was fine a year ago when the war was all the way in Ukraine, but now it's in their own back garden, suddenly the war is wrong, and they don't like it any more. Even the Russian war bloggers are saying Russia cannot win the war, that Ukraine has better trained soldiers, better equipment and far superior weaponry.

The towns and villages around the oil depots are all complaining about oil raining down from the heavens, as Ukraine keeps destroying those depots sending oil into the atmosphere, even the farm land is covered in oil effecting crops and livestock. It is not a pretty site, and it is effecting Russian morale of those in those areas, especially as all they see if flames and black smoke in the sky. Every time they manage to put out a fire Ukraine just attacks again restarting all the fires they just put out, and it takes them days to put them out. And it's costing Russia Billions that they cannot afford to lose.

Putin himself is supposed to be moving from bunker to bunker, staying in a different one every night, I'm not sure who he is hiding from is it his fellow Russians or Ukrainian drones, who knows, but it is pretty much obvious he is running scared. So the question is just how much longer can Russia last, while we know Ukraine has enough for the next year or so.

[mr.WHO]

You can also add that Ukraine advisors and anti-drone equipment impressed Middle East nations, so Ukraine might add a few more countries interested in Ukraine surviving another year.
Oh and Japan, who still have beef with RUssia over Kuril Islands now changed the law and now is allowed to be much more liberal in weapon exports - I recall Jpan already is testing some drone itnerceptors in Ukraine with success, potentially beign able to provide steady supply in near future.

I guess that, if Ukraine will still play it smart and keep bleeding out Russian forces, they might be able to mount a proper counter-offensive by Autumn...as long Orange cretin doesn't break something somewhere even more in the world.

[notaterran]

Even the Russian war bloggers are saying Russia cannot win the war, that Ukraine has better trained soldiers, better equipment and far superior weaponry.

Yes, that was surprising to me. I wonder if those Russian bloggers have been arrested and sent to the front already.

[...] every time [Russians] look up into the skies they see Ukrainian drones and missiles fly past, and it is scaring the hell out of them. It was fine a year ago when the war was all the way in Ukraine, but now it's in their own back garden, suddenly the war is wrong, and they don't like it any more.

I remember a couple of years ago when Russians at large didn't seem to care about what happened to Ukrainians but to be fair, protesting in Russia would send you to jail or to the front lines. More Russians speaking up against the war means that Putin is getting weaker, that might force Putin to go full North Korea.

[Chips]

Seems more relevant here than anywhere else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gawdIcdY00

"Inside Putin's Russia" - BBC News - Steve Rosenberg

It's about the increasing curbs and now significant restrictions on the internet.

[felter]

Ukraine hut another oil refinery and it looks like they did it at the perfect time, check out Denys Davydov coverage of it, those videos are something else and Russia is not going to be able to fix that place for a very long time, and I doubt that was done by fallen debris from a destroyed drone, but I'm sure they will still make that claim anyway.

[burger1]

They had another large refinery fire/strike that was over a mile long before that. Some more Russian ships hit. Ukraine is gaining ground on average and has undone several Russian gains from the couple years.
Romania might become the new Hungary. Romanias 2024 election results were annuled due to Russian interference.

https://abcnews.com/International/wireS ... -132453921

Romania’s leftist Social Democratic Party and the hard-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians jointly submitted a no-confidence motion on Tuesday as the two political parties seek to topple liberal Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan.

The PSD, Romania’s largest political party that was until last week part of the coalition government, and the opposition AUR party, submitted the motion to Parliament, a day after the two parties announced the joint effort to bring down Bolojan, who is from the center-right National Liberal Party, or PNL, less than a year after his pro-European coalition was sworn in.

[felter]

A couple of keywords floating around Russia right now that has Putin worried, the first is 1917 and the second is revolution. Russians are not saying we have lost the war, they are saying we cannot win the war, and we should not have got involved in the first place, which is basically what they said back in 1917 before they started the revolution.

That oil depot fire I showed yesterday according to the local officials the area was attacked by 34 drones, and they destroyed them all and the debris from the destroyed drones started the fire, they went on to also say, fortunately no civilians were injured, which is what I said they would say, that must have been some debris.

[Alan Phipps]

It is probably totally accurate to say that all the drones in the attack were destroyed. Explosive impact with a large static object can be very damaging.

Even if actually destroyed in the air, not intercepting an attack until it is already above the highly flammable soft target would seem a bit unwise - and go against the principles of key target point defence when area defence through attrition in transit has also failed.

[Chips]

Steve Rosenberg - Russia, covering Russian media reports about the upcoming military parade (which doesn't include any hardware), and VPN blocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j30f8nKx9po

Meanwhile, media is now reporting that the Russian economy has contracted in the Q1 with regards to GDP.
https://www.reuters.com/business/russia ... 026-04-29/

Previously it bucked the original expected contracture due to military spending... but that's no longer enough alone.
However, the war with Iran pushing up oil prices is going to be a significant boon for Russia <_<

[felter]

It is probably totally accurate to say that all the drones in the attack were destroyed. Explosive impact with a large static object can be very damaging.

Even if actually destroyed in the air, not intercepting an attack until it is already above the highly flammable soft target would seem a bit unwise - and go against the principles of key target point defence when area defence through attrition in transit has also failed.

But we know this to not be true as the locals are saying there is no air defence, but not just that there was a Russian military blogger present when the latest attack happened, and he said, this is the third time this refinery has been attacked, why is there no air defence, He also went on to also say that Putin needed to come and see the damage for himself instead of locking himself up in a secure bunker, which just a few weeks back he wouldn't have dared say any of this. What the Russian officials are saying are not for our ears, as we hear what is being said by those that witnessed it, he is saying it for those Russians that only listen to state television. The other thing is Ukraine will eventually release the drone footage of the attack, but the Russian populace will not see this either, but we will get to see those drones attacking the refinery.

As for the attack itself, the depot had two parts to it, a refinery and a distribution and storage area, turns out the previous two attacks were concentrated on the distribution and storage which destroyed them, meanwhile they continued to refine the oil, this last attack was on the refinery which was full of processed oil which they couldn't ship out due to those previous two attacks, resulting in the massive fire, it was so big if you were in a plane you could actually see it from over 100 miles away.

[matthewfarmery]

Trump just caught on hot mic, saying he wants to setup a trilateral deal, and Putin will make a deal for me. He still thinks he can pull a deal with Putin

[Usenko]

The problem Trump has right now is that he has zero leverage on Zelenskyy (and probably not much on Putin either, but Putin is creeping into the spot where maybe suing for peace might be advantageous). For the moment at least Zelenskyy would probably be wiser to keep fighting, given that Ukraine is in a reasonably solid position and Europe is willing to continue funding them. So if Trump tries to organise a deal, he's likely to be disappointed.

[EGO_Aut]

The problem Trump has right now is that he has zero leverage on Zelenskyy (and probably not much on Putin either, but Putin is creeping into the spot where maybe suing for peace might be advantageous). For the moment at least Zelenskyy would probably be wiser to keep fighting, given that Ukraine is in a reasonably solid position and Europe is willing to continue funding them. So if Trump tries to organise a deal, he's likely to be disappointed.

Trump is out, now it's up to the EU and Ukraine. The US ultimately found the confrontation with Russia too dangerous; it's better to help Israel against Iran, which is technologically 30 years behind the times.

[burger1]

EU and it's allies are pretty much funding the war. US has apparently donated $0 towards Ukraine this year and is still with holding $400m from 2025. The US is also deciding on where it's 1.5 trillion budget will be spent without congress. First part is worth watching but Ukraine is at about 1 minute. It's pretty obvious the US is up to bad things for NATO, other countries and US citizens. More wars, conflict, etc... Bad stuff. US attacking Iran apparently made russia an extra 40-80 billion from the US dropping of sanctions, etc... US is helping russia as usual when they need it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ymLiR5pZuM

Some more planes hit in russia.

[felter]

Ukraine has hut a high rise flats in the middle of Moscow, what's so great about that you ask, well currently Moscow is supposed to have the best anti-air defence in the world, as they prepare for the May 9th victory parade with nearly 300 anti-air defence systems in place, and Ukraine flew a drone right over all of it with no reaction from the Russians we know this as there are videos of it. And why did they attack it (speculation is) there is a video from Russia showing some Russians controlling FPV drones in Ukraine from a high rise in central Moscow, you can see outside their window, and if you geolocate their position using that view, as many have, it comes back as the same high rise that Ukraine just hut with a drone, I'm sure that's just a coincidence.

[Alan Phipps]

So, Russia releases public footage from its strict news control (that apparently can easily be traced back to original location) of civilians (?) in a central Moscow residential high-rise controlling lethal drones in Ukraine. Obviously it would soon be non-contemporary footage too.

Can anyone else see any likely provenance of that? It's more likely either a Russian fake news diversion/incitement or it didn't happen quite like that. Either way, a strike on a residential block in Moscow (and potentially long after any misdoings from that location) is not exactly the sort of success that Ukraine would really be hoping for just now, regardless of how many defences were penetrated in the process. (IMO)

[fiksal]

I can guess.

Russian news are in too deep to report anything real, it all is shown from the misinterpreted ideas of showing Russia as strong

Some non propaganda news pointed that Russia has been advertising its "drone capability" as the most advanced.

Translating, Russian army is short on soldiers to kill.

[burger1]

Ukraine Hits more oil stuff and VNIIR progress electronics plant that supplies electronic parts for the russian military. Large strikes in Crimea.

Russia celebrates unilateral declared ceasefire by mass bombing of Ukraine killing ~ 22 people.

Romania’s pro-European coalition collapses after prime minister fails a no-confidence vote Russia/US is closer to getting it's new Hungary vetoer.

https://apnews.com/article/romania-gove ... c0b2c927ea

US is starting it's troop withdrawl from the EU. The US previously announced it would be withdrawing troops in 2025. Expect more weapon shortages/shipment delays from the US and removal of resources from Europe.

US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany in next 6-12 months, fulfilling Trump’s threat

https://apnews.com/article/trump-merz-g ... fd8aa65142

[fiksal]

from US side it seems that's good because Trump is then removing its and US leverage over Europe.

let's hope Europe adapts

[Chips]

from US side it seems that's good because Trump is then removing its and US leverage over Europe.

let's hope Europe adapts

Europe had to start adapting years ago; was it 2019 the papers across Europe were plastering how Germany had zero working subs, zero working transport planes, aircraft that couldn't fly and tanks that couldn't be driven. France was borrowing UK lift capabilities as they didn't have any planes to do so (for operations in Africa) and so on and so forth.

The UK has just suddenly retired another Type 23 - only a few years after it completed a 4 year £100m refit... meaning it's surface fleet is just 5 frigates (in total, not operational... ); it is still fixing the destroyers that randomly broke down (zero power) from heat issues, and it's procurement for armed vehicles has become an utter farce.

Trump being an arse has sort of force European nations to realise... they've been utterly incompetent with regards to their armed forces.
Lets hope they *do* wake up, because there's a genuine threat out there - and suddenly Daddy USA isn't reliable. They've *finally* gone "erm, wait, what?". Trying to convince their electorates to either 1) be taxed more, or 2) endure cuts to properly fund defence in what is an obvious dereliction of duty due to Daddy USA being the grand protector, is their choice. Assuming they do anything.