Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

NATO announced "Eastern Sentry" program:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/12/worl ... latam-intl

France and Germany will move jets to Poland.
Czechia will move helicopters as well.


We'll remain calm, composed and patient.
Two years from now we'll be able to converse with Russia, using language they will be able to understand:
https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1963749830091542848

[clakclak]

[...]
Unfortunately both US and NATO are still a year or two behind Ukraine - I predict we will be deploying our own versions in 2026/2027.
Here in Poland, several major drone project have just been greenlit and finaced, with assumption we'll be able to churn hundreds of thousands of drones in 2-3 years.



Note that whole above issue wouldn't be problematic in full scale open war, as NATO would use it's technological and air superioty to go directly for Russian factories.
Unfortunately in "just a no fly zone" scenario, Russia has big advantage.

THe production capacity is there in theory. I grew up in NRW, the amount of potential for industrial production of a simple good like a drone you have in that state alone is a bit mind boggling. The logistical network exists. The know how exists. The trained and unemployed workforce exists. The only thing lacking is the capital.

[burger1]

Probably just twisting facts no really reputable source:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... r-AA1Mh508

Russian troops have been preparing strikes on Poland and Lithuania for several months, as they have been using 4G modems with SIM cards from Polish operators since at least June, according to Defense Express.

In early July, it was revealed in Poland that 4G modems with SIM cards from Polish operators were found among the wreckage of Russian drones shot down in Ukraine.

In addition to Polish SIM cards, a SIM card from a Lithuanian operator was also found in one of the drones. This directly indicates Russia's preparation for drone flights over the territory of these countries and tests of connection to mobile networks.

NATO deploys 40,000 soldiers to it's Eastern border during russian and belarus war games

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/na ... r-AA1MosbY

Ukraine launched more strikes on russia.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-launc ... 23950.html

Ukraine hit another russian ship

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/13/ ... ip-struck/

What’s notable about the Thursday strike on the Project MPSV07 rescue and salvage ship was how and where Ukrainian operators hit it. The 73-m salvage ship, operated by Russia’s auxiliary rescue agency, was patrolling just outside the port of Novorossiysk, in southern Russia, 400 km from the front line.

The hit on the Project MPSV07 had the effect of “destroying its electronic warfare systems and forcing it out of action,” the Ukrainian strategic communications service announced.

[mr.WHO]

THe production capacity is there in theory. I grew up in NRW, the amount of potential for industrial production of a simple good like a drone you have in that state alone is a bit mind boggling. The logistical network exists. The know how exists. The trained and unemployed workforce exists. The only thing lacking is the capital.

Untill the incident, Polish command was on the fence about cheap drones, calling them "flying lawnmowers" or "poor people weapons".
Now it's: "F*ck, I guess we'll spend a few billion $ for drone swarms".

If it's cheap, effective and can be easily mass produce then why not.

Oh and when you spend billions, better refere to professionals - it was agreed with Kiyv that Ukrainians will send their experts to train us on mass drone warfare.


Seems like anti-drone countermeasure still hinge on kinetics.
Recently Saudi Arabia said those fancy chinese lasers we seen on Beijing parade are trash in anything, but perfect weather conditions (it took 15 min to take ONE drone).
Remember - a few months ago UK sent their laser platform to Ukraine for battlefield tests - since then? Crickets! I guess it has the same issues.

I guess we should go with provent stuff like Gepard or Skyranger:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/D1_cjHae4ME

[Chips]

Unfortunately both US and NATO are still a year or two behind Ukraine - I predict we will be deploying our own versions in 2026/2027.
Here in Poland, several major drone project have just been greenlit and finaced, with assumption we'll be able to churn hundreds of thousands of drones in 2-3 years.

Initiatives to share and create are underway; production should be starting "early 2026", and the tech sharing will also benefit NATO.

Ukrainian drone-maker Ukrspecsystems has revealed a £200m investment in a new UK drone production plant at Mildenhall in Suffolk, plus a training and testing site at nearby Elmsett.

The 11,000 square metre facility is expected to employ around 500 people when it opens next year.

Ukrspecsystems produces the Shark-D reconnaissance drone, which is already in use with the Ukrainian armed forces.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld0FH0RakUk

and

LONDON — The United Kingdom will scale up interceptor-drone technology developed by Ukraine and plans to deliver thousands of drones to the embattled country every month, Defence Secretary John Healey said at the DSEI UK defense show here on Thursday.

Under Project Octopus, Ukraine will share intellectual property related to an interceptor drone that has been “highly effective” against Shahed one-way attack drones, Healey said, following an agreement signed with his Ukrainian counterpart Denys Shmyhal.

The agreement follows an announcement this month by drone maker Ukrspecsystems to invest £200 million in two manufacturing facilities in the U.K., the first major investment by a Ukrainian defense company in the country, Healey said.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... thousands/

Or, one source both stories.
https://www.forcesnews.com/ukraine/shoo ... tor-drones

[mr.WHO]

My first thought - in HIMARS range? How nice of them:
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1966827264060125656


My second thought - immortalized words of unknown Ukrainian Soldier:
"We are so lucky, they are so f*cking stupid".

[fiksal]

I am trying to remember, is Kaliningrad a historical Russian land, dating back to beginning of Rus people? Like Crimea is?


(yes, it's simple to Google who has the oldest historical claim there really)

[mr.WHO]

I am trying to remember, is Kaliningrad a historical Russian land, dating back to beginning of Rus people? Like Crimea is?


(yes, it's simple to Google who has the oldest historical claim there really)

Nope, nothing to do with Rus or even Slavic:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Prussians

Not german either, just some twisted Balts.

[Tamina]

I didn't really catch up with the news lately. Did Russia respond in any way to the drones in Poland?

One of my first thoughts was, Russia is jamming the GPS over Poland. Thats just a thing they do as a side hussle. So if you fly in a plane over Poland, on GPS you will teleport to Russia. I wonder if Russias Drones during the training in Belarus were jammed by their own GPS trickery.

Yeah sorry I am late to the party. The only news I findto this topic now is the international banter.

[mr.WHO]

I didn't really catch up with the news lately. Did Russia respond in any way to the drones in Poland?

Standard reply - "there is no proof those are Russian drones - you can get those drones in every drone store, Ukraine launched it, Ukraine divert it, it's a NATO provocation".

[Chips]

Been um/arr whether to post this for a while. It's just a video about game theory, it's got quite a long lead into the prisoners dilemma as it explains what it is, strategy if just playing once, but how it changes if you repeatedly play it - followed by the real world competition that asked for submissions to run against each other repeatedly for determinate amount of games, and then indeterminate amount of games. Which strategy was best.

The purpose is simple, it's has echoes to what's the best way to respond to ensure cooperation and it can be extrapolate / applicable to real world "games" of cooperation or defection.
As in, international politics and more. If not familiar, or even if is as it's a good reminder, it's worth the lengthy watch. May spot the parallels with responses to tariffs, responses to actions and why certain actions *should* be taken to ensure it doesn't go further.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mScpHTIi-kM

[felter]

Been um/arr whether to post this for a while. It's just a video about game theory, it's got quite a long lead into the prisoners dilemma as it explains what it is, strategy if just playing once, but how it changes if you repeatedly play it - followed by the real world competition that asked for submissions to run against each other repeatedly for determinate amount of games, and then indeterminate amount of games. Which strategy was best.

The purpose is simple, it's has echoes to what's the best way to respond to ensure cooperation and it can be extrapolate / applicable to real world "games" of cooperation or defection.
As in, international politics and more. If not familiar, or even if is as it's a good reminder, it's worth the lengthy watch. May spot the parallels with responses to tariffs, responses to actions and why certain actions *should* be taken to ensure it doesn't go further.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mScpHTIi-kM

If you apply that to what is going on, it clearly shows the weakest link in NATO is America/Trump, as they always play nice while forcing others to do the same, there is never any kind of retaliation Trump keeps on saying I'm going to do this, or I'm going to do that if Russia doesn't stop, but he never does anything which is a bad strategy, as Russia knows he is not going to do anything apart from whine like a little baby.

[Chips]

Its more that Russia, Israel etc are able to "defect" and there's absolutely zero response. They gain the maximum from doing so at each and every turn, while the US does nothing (to be fair, Europe's not doing a huge amount either).

The strategies show (simplified game though) that a known predictable (yet limited) retaliation can prevent and lead to the best outcome for everyone.

The same could be said the other way with giving weapons etc to Ukraine being "red lines", but arguably there's more theory in this whereby small increments rather than big overall action, means it's never enough to tip over the edge to all out war.

But all actions taken by Russia and Israel in the recent history result in nothing in return. They'll continue. And that's just the stuff we see (ignoring all the cable breaks and the endurance of Baltic nations Russian influence that's been ongoing throughout).

It stretches back years. Nothing with regards to Georgia. Nothing with regards to Crimea (really), nothing with regards to Syria and Chemical Weapons. Nothing with regards to Eastern Ukraine destabilisation and fighting etc. It was only on the all out war that something happened, but it was a bit muted, but I imagine that's because everyone thought it'd be over before any resources could reach Ukraine let alone be trained to use.

Meanwhile Trump is "for USA to do more, Europe needs to do more - and preferably align on China by imposing large tariffs because that's what's best for the US".

[burger1]

Another russian drone flew into NATO air space Saturday September 13, 2025..

https://abcnews.go.com/International/po ... =125551928

But, farther south along NATO’s eastern flank, a Russian drone did violate Romanian airspace, according to a statement published by the Defense Ministry in Bucharest.

[burger1]

US military attends russian war games in Belarus.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 025-09-15/

trump recently removed some sanctions on belarus allowing them to buy plane parts which will ultimately go to russia.

https://apnews.com/article/belarus-pris ... d8e0492b37

trump refuses to put any more sanctions on russia and makes ridiculous conditions for him to do so

Earlier trump removed russian sanctions on nuclear projects in hungary allowing for the transfer of funds from hungary to russia
(really EU money since they subsidize hungary). Projects in hungary may never be built trump was tossing russia a financial lifeline when they needed it.

Lots more stuff blown up. A 40m buk air defense system, recaptured a village, blow up parts of a black sea fleet base, radar dome in rostov confirmed blown up earlier, 0 tanks reported destroyed yesterday (usually 1 or 2 these days)

[clakclak]

[...]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 025-09-15/

trump recently removed some sanctions on belarus allowing them to buy plane parts which will ultimately go to russia.

https://apnews.com/article/belarus-pris ... d8e0492b37

[...]

The plane parts thing is actually not that bad. We are talking about parts for commercial planes here and yes, some of the technology can be used in military planes, but the overwhelming majority of spare parts is neither interchangeable nor (reasonably) adaptable from one plane to another. The stuff the russian airforce is in need of seems mostly clear purpose build military equipment. Not something that would be sold commercially.

Where commercial parts could be adapted it seems as if the issue is less with russia not having what they need and more an issue of it not getting to where it is needed. I am absolutely convinced that somewhere in Russia there is a better navigation system for a jet than the Garmin etrex that was spotted clamped to the dashboard of a Russian SU-34 (I found the same model on ebay.de for less than 60€).

And we probably do not want commercial airliners to fall out of the sky, given that they are used mostly by civlians.

[burger1]

Plane parts might be put into weapons and are probably more likely to be used by more important russian military aircraft that will be used to kill Ukrainians and waken NATO.

Plane parts will be probably be used to make more planes operational which will provide income to russia to buy weapons to kill Ukrainians, possibly NATO, and do other stuff.

It will prolong the war which means either thousands of deaths/injuries per day.

It's not not ok.

Fly passenger plane to another allied country and get it fixed there? Probably not going to do that with a military plane or if your using the parts in drones/missiles.


Poland closes it's border blocking 26b per year China-EU trade route. Might just be for the war games.

Ukraine liberates another village as part of russian defence line breaks.

Day 4 of 0 russian tank kills? Could mean a variety of things good or bad.

[clakclak]

Plane parts might be put into weapons and are probably more likely to be used by more important russian military aircraft that will be used to kill Ukrainians and waken NATO.

[...]

Sorry but that is simply not how this works. You don't just bolt commercial airliner parts from Boing into a SU-27 and have them work. What specific parts are you talking about here, that Russia is now able to source but wasn't able to source before?

[burger1]

According to chatgpt a surprising number of russian military aircraft use boeing parts. Used bing with the search phrase : russian military planes that use boeing parts

Antonov An-124 Ruslan, Sukhoi Su-27, Tupolev Tu-160, Ilyushin Il-76, MiG-29, Su-57, Il-78

Anyways can strip down some of the electronics to get regular parts, different icc chips, processors (probably faster ones) and other parts. These can be reprogrammed or repurposed for other uses in a variety of ways. They were salvaging washing machines for parts.

Navigation systems might be transferable or repurposed? Probably some engine parts? Larger drones?

The parts might just be boeing not just large commercial plane specific? Radar? Boeing makes large and small planes and military aircraft + parts.

The larger planes are greatly needed by russia not just in Ukraine but to supply military operations in other countries. So not very good.

Income, business (third party stuff) and the movement of goods (industry, etc...) by the airlines is bad also.

[Chips]

The other alternative is that the Belorussian airline that was sanctioned has Boeing 737-300's in its fleet that'll require parts to remain airworthy in order to keep up with a maintenance schedule.

If you're using ChatGPT as a source of data regarding military technology (specifically what it is comprised of), then heaven help us. Where does it get it's data? However, to counter... directly from chatgpt itself in response to your term "russian military planes that use boeing parts"

I didn’t find any credible, specific examples of Russian military aircraft confirmed to be using Boeing‑parts. However, there is strong evidence that Russia continues to import Boeing (and Airbus) components — some of which could have military applications — often via intermediaries, despite sanctions.

Source.... chatgpt.

Could they use various parts if they unsolder and resolder elsewhere? Probably. In Military aircraft? Maybe. But they've allegedly been getting parts from third party countries for the last few years... so from this specific instance as the main reliance point? Unlikely.
At the end of the day, don't assume "maybe possibly could in limited circumstances and with significant difficulties" to "oh absolutely they are, it's the only explanation..." I'm never one to say don't be sceptical, but I'd be cautious about immediately labelling it as "we're now supplying the Russian military!!1!", let alone arguing the fact with nothing but Bing search as source