Russia-Ukraine War

[fiksal]

I see exactly the opposite.

Russia can only add troops significantly once it does full mobilization. The exact thing it doesn't want.

Its infrastructure is burning out, it is already running on steam.

There are quiet numbers behind, of people unpaid, retirements lost, people dying in hospitals.

Lack of basic needs will spell deaths. Already probably does.

And Russia's answer? More fascism.

The fact that the border doesn't move is the proof that Ukraine is winning over a larger army.

This is Russia's what, third push for the win? And Ukraine now has a cruise missile.


You can bookmark me and we can see who is right.

So far Ukraine exceeded all my expectations and Russia mostly proved all that I hoped for it, except for a revolution. I will cross that one out since Russians prefer fascism actually

Our side will win, you will see

He could wake up tomorrow morning, pissed off at Putin and announce a full scale invasion of Russia! In that event, I suppose you'd be singing praises for Trump?

I don't praise fascists. If I do by mistake, you can call me on that and I will improve

[Observe]

Our side will win, you will see

I hope you are right.

[burger1]

Ukraines Independence day was celebrated with strikes on russian targets and accidentally lighting a russian nuclear power plant on fire.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/uk ... r-AA1L7iQX

Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russia on Sunday, forcing a sharp fall in the capacity of a reactor at one of Russia's biggest nuclear power plants and sparking a huge blaze at the major Ust-Luga fuel export terminal, Russian officials said.

Ukraine's new long range Flamingo missile will have a 2,540 lb warhead and be used on military production facilities inside russia. Mass production to begin next year (4 months?) with ~ 1 missile per day being currently produced.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamingo_(missile)

Ukraine started an offensive of some sort.

More trains blown up, one oil depot was on fire for days, oil/gas lines to hungary and slovakia attacked again, russian drone production facilities blown up, ship with drone parts sunk and another ship on it's way to russia. Lots of other news as usual.

US still protecting russia.

[Chips]

As mentioned previously, Steve Rosenberg, always worth listening to his reviews the news from the Russian papers as/when he can. When i say reviews the news, he's literally reading articles to give an insight into what the Russian media are saying about a particular topic on a particular day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuJ__GJtuVM

"Russia on the verge of full-scale fuel crisis" reports Russian paper

Yesterdays.

Today about the Russian Parliament asking Putin to withdraw from the European convention on Torture - not that they paid any attention anyway.

A few days before; Russian media over Trump / Putin in Alaska.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phoY7PRwqHg

[fiksal]

deadly attack in Ukraine, children dead

let's watch White House defend and explain Russian actions in 3, 2, 1...

[fiksal]

here you go, "both" countries are at fault


Ukraine really should stop fighting back as Russia kills more in and outside of conquered territories. Right MAGA?

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/2 ... e-00534585

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insinuated that the attack on Ukraine’s capital that killed at least 19 people, including four children, was an understandable response to Ukraine’s assault on Russian refineries over the last month.

Trump “was not happy about this move, but he was also not surprised,” Leavitt said, reiterating that the president wants the bloodshed to stop but blamed both countries for the lack of progress in negotiations. “These are two countries that have been at war for a very long time. Russia launched this attack on Kyiv, and likewise, Ukraine recently dealt a blow to Russia’s oil refineries.”

I do still remember that Trump said with him there wouldn't have been the war, translating - Putin could just claim this is all Russia now and thus - no war, kill whoever he needs, etc. A local conflict

[chew-ie]

...and at that point, everybody stopped listening to anyone from the Trump administration. The US citizen used the mid-terms to free themselves again from oppression. Meanwhile Ukraine got their country back and joined both EU and NATO....

[fiksal]

eventually yes, the history shows that oppressions has a hard time lasting, and crashes down quite hard.

there will be tanks in Moscow again

I would like for Europe to sign mutual defense pact with Ukraine. Let's side step NATO who clearly has wrong members who can veto this

[burger1]

Ukraine uses first Flamingo missile successfully

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-flamin ... ia-2122562

Ukrainian military outlet, Militarnyi, reported that the Ukrainian armed forces struck patrol boats and an outpost for Russia's FSB security service near Armiansk, northern Crimea, on Saturday, with Flamingo missiles.

Russian independent outlet Astra earlier said Ukraine had attacked close to the village of Voloshyne, immediately west of Armiansk, with long-range Neptune cruise missiles.

It is "plausible" the footage could show the Flamingo, said weapons and technology expert, David Hambling.

More drone strikes on quite a few refineries. There were fuel shortages and line ups for at least 3 weeks minimum.

Ukraines gaining some ground in some areas.

Some gunpowder factories blown up

[burger1]

Rumour in part: ICE is sending Russian dissidents back to Russia along with confidential US asylum application provided by the US government.

ICE is sending Russians back it's just if the US applications forms are being provided is in question. It would be another nail in trumps russia coffin.

More oil depot strikes. Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region, Russia, is burning.

[felter]

Seems as though there is a fuel shortage in Russia while the price at the pump keeps going up and the Russians have no idea why, this is probably because the Russian press has not informed them that Ukraine has destroyed around 25% of their oil refineries and pipelines.

[fiksal]

which Russia can't stop.

Add to that that third of its budget is now for war, it doesn't leave much for everything else. So Kremlin is correctly taking private business which will further plunge Russia into this fascist non capitalist soup without money.

It's a good direction

[burger1]

Fuel shortage might have spread to the regions russians took illegally outside russia.

Ukraine is also using their other smaller cruise missiles they built themselves.

Ukraine blew up more pipelines

Editor's note: The article was updated with a clarification by the source that the explosions in Penza damaged an oil and gas pipeline rather than two gas pipelines, and with information about a separate explosion in Saratov Oblast.

Three oil and gas pipelines in Russia were knocked out of service in a series of explosions on Sept. 8, a Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) source told the Kyiv Independent.

The main oil pipeline in Penza, with a capacity of 2 million barrels per day, and a regional gas pipeline in the same location were taken out of service, the source claimed, without clarifying the cause of the blasts.

At least four explosions were reportedly heard around 4:00 a.m. in the Zheleznodorozhny city district of Penza.

The damaged gas pipeline was used to "supply military facilities involved in the full-scale war against Ukraine," the intelligence source commented.

The incidents come amid escalating Ukrainian long-range drone campaign targeting the Russian energy infrastructure and a growing fuel shortage in Russia.

[burger1]

NATO shoots down russian drones in Poland

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... s-military

Poland scrambled its own and Nato air defences to shoot down drones that entered its airspace on Wednesday during a Russian attack on Ukraine in what the Polish army called an “act of aggression” as Warsaw got involved in the war in its neighbouring country for the first time.

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, said early on Thursday that operations were continuing and that he was in “constant contact” with the Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte. Tusk called for an emergency meeting of the council of ministers at 8am local time, a government spokesman said.

“An operation is under way related to the repeated violation of Polish airspace,” Tusk posted early on Wednesday. “The military has used weaponry against the objects.”

[clakclak]

NATO shoots down russian drones in Poland

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... s-military

Poland scrambled its own and Nato air defences to shoot down drones that entered its airspace on Wednesday during a Russian attack on Ukraine in what the Polish army called an “act of aggression” as Warsaw got involved in the war in its neighbouring country for the first time.

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, said early on Thursday that operations were continuing and that he was in “constant contact” with the Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte. Tusk called for an emergency meeting of the council of ministers at 8am local time, a government spokesman said.

“An operation is under way related to the repeated violation of Polish airspace,” Tusk posted early on Wednesday. “The military has used weaponry against the objects.”

Poland calls to activate article 4. If I had to guess the result of this, I'd assume a further shift of air defense assets to Poland in the near future.

[fiksal]

I think Russia will interpret Article 4 as in - we don't know if Poland is actually in NATO, so let's talk about it.

More than a year ago, I read something from Kremlin stating something to that effect.

Are they testing it now

[mr.WHO]

Aparently alongside Polish Airforce, there were:
- US and Dutch F-35s
- Italian AWACS and Tankers
- German Patriot battery

This was combined NATO operation.


Belarusia MoD said they have real time target-warning sharing between Poland and Belarus, if Russian drones heading for cross border, the other side is warned.
I guess Potato man doesn't want to be held responsible for Putin idiocy.
Edit: Polish AF confirmed that Belarus did provide early warning that drones are incoming.


There is also some complaints that only 4 out of 19 drones were intercepted.
Only one house was dammaged by drone debris (no one hurt, house stands, roof for totalrepair), so I assume they did a threat assesment, then only shoot down those drones which posed danger.

Edit: Aparently the airspace was not closed, so there were civilian airplanes in AO - another reason not to be trigger happy.

Edit2: Currently 15 debris/crash site have been confirmed in Poland. Remaining 4 are to be determined (it has been mentioned that some managed to fly into Ukraine).



Overall for a test run, not bad, but I do hope we'll start fire-buying spree for anti-drone assets.

[Falcrack]

I think the proper response to this would be for NATO nations to indicate that they will defend Western Ukrainian airspace (west of the Dnipro river) from cruise/ballistic missiles and drone attacks, with air patrols over that region and ground based air defense. Strictly defensive, but it would free up Ukrainian air defenses for the east.

It would be an air defense buffer zone in effect.

[fiksal]

that would be a good option if boots on the ground are scary

[mr.WHO]

I think NATO problem is that we still don't have right tools to enforce the no-fly zone.

Aparently F-35 intercepted drones with AIM120 missile (cost multi-milion $).
The decoy drone cost 10k $...price of about hour of F-35 flight.

When Russia will just spam drones, it can dry out NATO munition supplies very fast.
The worst thing is that drones are so slow, you can't just gun down them with onboard guns - Ukrainians tried and lost F-16.


The good news is that US and NATO already developed cost effective countermeasures, but still need to be produced and deployed in greater numbers.
Ukrainians also have good idea with using WW2 rotor planes - they would be very cheap (faster and cheaper to build, easier and faster to train pilots, you don't need to be god-like reflex and focus like in fighter jets) and probably could be improvised from civilian planes or avaliable military platforms (e.g. Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano).
Proper Interceptor drones would be good as well.

Unfortunately both US and NATO are still a year or two behind Ukraine - I predict we will be deploying our own versions in 2026/2027.
Here in Poland, several major drone project have just been greenlit and finaced, with assumption we'll be able to churn hundreds of thousands of drones in 2-3 years.



Note that whole above issue wouldn't be problematic in full scale open war, as NATO would use it's technological and air superioty to go directly for Russian factories.
Unfortunately in "just a no fly zone" scenario, Russia has big advantage.