Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

- Ukraine gives up the Donbas (currently they still control around 12% of it)

Honestly - Donbas should be very easy bargain chip for Ukraine.

Donbas was always a big liability for Ukraine that enables russyfication of Ukraine society, politics and economy. This was also always major blocker of EU/NATO route for the rest of Ukraine.
If, Ukraine would be able to cut Donbas loose as trade off for getting Ukraine to EU and NATO (or NATO like miltiary guarantees) then this would be good long term benefit.
Granted the remaining 12% of Donbas would still stay with Ukraine dues to containing important parts of Ukraine defense lines.

[burger1]

Zelensky figures it will take Russia about 4 years to get that little bit of Donbas. It is heavily fortified. It also works well for traps. It's not just about land there's other factors. There's no deal to be made Russia or the US. Ukraine and it's allies need to increase weapons production and destroy Russian forces. Ukraine is still being handicapped and limited by other countries. It's the same as the start of the war.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ru ... r-AA1KWZEi

Ukraine shoots down Russia drone carrier. China has larger versions.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukr ... 04830.html

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Russian Orlan drone carrying two first-person-view (FPV) drones under its wings for the first time, the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade reported on Aug. 22.

This marks the first time the Ukrainian military has destroyed a so-called "mother drone" carrying other UAVs, the brigade claimed.

[fiksal]

The giving up part that Russia wants is for Ukraine to officially say those territories don't belong to Ukraine. Therefore all sanctions against Russia are void, and arrest warrant against Putin is void too (since Kremlin can freely kidnap Russian children). That's the logical chain they are building.

So, let's not help fascism.

All Ukraine should need to agree to is to stop fighting where they are at, unless they plan to recapturing anything by force. If Ukraine can work with that, and they seem to be, then EU needs to send in the troops and dictate to Russia the conditions for cease fire. You don't honor Russian terms. You don't pass Ukrainians to be second class citizens in Russia; you keep the sanctions until all cities and towns are back in Ukraine. Further, the Coalition of the Willing needs to send in the troops now, if you want this war to stop.

That's how I see it shaping up. If EU is not ready then we are waiting for Ukraine to collapse Russia's economy or Ukraine to obtain nukes.

Or of course with some US help, Ukraine could lose and its citizens slaughtered until no one left who speaks the language. Bucha and kidnapping of children will be peanuts in comparison. Everyone knows that hopefully.

Then we'll also revisit this war when Russia attacks again and will discuss what Finland, or Poland need to give up to Russia, and whether or not Russia can veto Article 5. USA probably would say yes, Russia can. Then which part of Germany is historic Russian land? I have some answers.

Without having read the article that doesn't sound that bad, to me at first glance.

which part?

[jlehtone]

So according to Reuters these are the key Russian demands for a peace deal:

- Ukraine gives up the Donbas (currently they still control around 12% of it)
- Other frontlines get frozen
- Russia gives up the small parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk they control
- There will be no western troops stationed in Ukraine
- No NATO membership for Ukraine
- If Ukraine refuses, the war will continue

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/put ... 025-08-21/

It is easy to make a counter-offer:
- Russians stop shooting
- Russians withdraw from Ukraine
- If Russia refuses, we tell Israel that HAMAS hides in Russia

[fiksal]

force is the only thing that Russia understands.

btw Hamas had visited Russia before and is considered an ally

[Observe]

Ukraine and it's allies need to increase weapons production and destroy Russian forces.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but what part of we are running out of rare earths availability to produce missiles, drones, etc. is not understood?

We can't just produce more with the wave of a hand. Rare earth minerals may not be the only reason, but is one that the military supply chain is highly vulnerable to. Arms manufacturers are already slowing or stopping production because of this very reason. Sure, we could revert to "old technology" and change our designs to not use rare earths, but again, not be the wave of a hand and not with very effective results.

I don't understand how people seem to think that we have unlimited means by which to cause explosions and shoot pretty rockets into the sky on mass scale forever. US weapons supplies are depleted. Same with other countries. Except for China.

Also, it's not just Russian and Ukraine lives that we are talking about destroying with our fancy equipment. Conservatively, the war has already killed many millions of animals and other wildlife, directly or indirectly — and the ecological damage will last for decades.

Of course no one cares very much about what non-humans want. We are so bloody concerned about artificial lines drawn on a map. We continue to behave like the uncivilized brutes that we are. The outrages we witness in Israel/Gaza, Ukraine/Russia are not anomalies. This is how people have always behaved toward each other and everything else that moves.

Alas, likely the war will rage on and Ukraine will lose more and more territory, before they accept the inevitable increasing loss. Meanwhile, suffering prevails as always.

[burger1]

Don't need rare earths to make missiles or drones. WW2 had very powerful missiles that travelled very far.

Don't need specialized equipment. Russia can only produce/procure x number of interceptor (~smart) missiles. If you can produce more dumb missiles than they can produce smart missiles then you can bomb them at will.

Wars been going on for nearly 4 years. Maximum 3 months to build and start up a factory. Can probably do it in weeks or even re purpose civilian production.

1940's tech
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregat#A4-SLBM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amatol

[Observe]

Don't need rare earths to make missiles or drones. WW2 had very powerful missiles that travelled very far.

Modern wars (especially Ukraine) rely on precision: drones that can loiter, missiles that hit a bridge span or a radar antenna. That requires electronics, sensors, and specialized materials — including rare earth magnets, advanced semiconductors, and precision gyros.

Yes, you can produce crude rockets that make big holes in the ground without rare earths — but they won’t meet modern battlefield needs. Precision warfare is resource-intensive, and that’s why supply chains for critical minerals actually do matter in Ukraine.

Always looming, is the prospect of war with China and the ever-present need to ensure our own stock of weapons. Sending everything to Ukraine, doesn't make the best sense in the big picture of potential threats and instinct for survival.

[Chips]

The export restrictions China put on 7 rare earths were a direct response to the US tariffs.

So the inability of the US to produce munitions for self defence is a direct consequence of the US President's trade wars is what you're saying.

Trump has compromised the US military. Nice.

[Observe]

The U.S. reliance on China for rare earths is the result of decades of offshoring and underinvestment, not just Trump’s tariffs.

China already used rare earths as leverage against Japan in 2010 during a territorial dispute. The real problem is systemic: we let China dominate refining, and now both civilian and military supply chains are exposed.

Blaming Trump misses the point — the U.S. handed China the rare earths industry decades ago. Tariffs didn’t compromise our military, decades of outsourcing have.

[Chips]

Tariffs didn’t compromise our military, decades of outsourcing have.

So there were shortages and stopped production due to shortages of Rare Earth Materials within the US Military supply chain prior to the Trump's Widely Applied Tariff policy is what you're saying.

[Observe]

So there were shortages and stopped production due to shortages of Rare Earth Materials within the US Military supply chain prior to the Trump's Widely Applied Tariff policy is what you're saying.

You know very well that is not what I said.

[burger1]

Ironically Ukraine has no shortage of rare earths maybe????

Russia seems to lack rare earths and produces very little. China seems to be by far the largest producer. Rare earths also refers to a group of metals / elements so not really accurate. Maybe deposits in other countries like Africa or South America are just under developed?

https://www.newsweek.com/map-ukraine-ra ... mp-2035902

According to Forbes, approximately 70 percent of Ukraine's estimated $14.8 trillion in critical mineral resources are concentrated in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk. Russia currently controls a significant portion of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, collectively known as the Donbas.

Anyways Europe is much closer to Ukraine. European countries have resumed manufacturing of some items and might have increased production of some others. Europe can do it alone and in some cases with no extra equipment/factories needed. They just won't. People are manufacturing stuff in their homes. At the start of the war they did this with other items also but have increased the range of items manufactured. US is also way across the ocean. US isn't the only country involved and is smaller than the EU and it's allies. Plenty of other countries involved.

Russia's looking to get a pro Russia candidate in office. Like Belarus and some other countries and they are trying Moldova again.

Peace in Ukraine might also mean troubles else where due to US/Russia coordinated shenanigans.

[mr.WHO]

Problem with rare earths is not that they are rare (there are actually plenty of deposits all across the world), but that to mine them it's extremely toxic and pollutant strip minning, so nobody sane want them anywhere close.
Pretty much only China is insane enough to hapily mine them without caring to environment.

Currently there is rare eartch mining project beign set up in Serbia, that if something goes wrong can can pollute 1/3 lenght of Danube river.

[fiksal]

you can solve the issues easily by defeating Russia rather than helping it

the war be shorter too, and would have been shorter if everyone were in on it from the start

and not after Ukraine pushed out Russia from under Kyiv. Not after Russia took Crimea. Not after Russia took down the passenger Boeing. Not after Russia filled Donbass with bandits. Not after Russia rolled through Georgia. Not after Russia annexed northern Georgia.

I feel like I can keep going

[Chips]

So there were shortages and stopped production due to shortages of Rare Earth Materials within the US Military supply chain prior to the Trump's Widely Applied Tariff policy is what you're saying.

You know very well that is not what I said.

What you specifically said is that the reason there's a shortage of ammo is due to decades of neglect in overall strategic decisions that mean the US is reliant upon China's refining of rare earths.

So, lets look at the evidence. IF THAT WERE TRUE - then there'd be supply shortages and therefore cuts to munitions production prior to the tariffs. So, were there? Genuine question.

It doesn't *matter* what you have said because it is deflecting instead of responding head on to the current issue. Were there, or were there not, supply issues prior to the tariffs? Therefore, are the tariffs the direct cause of the current shortage.

"It could have been mitigated if..." - yes, it could. So could Covid if someone hadn't eaten a bat. So could the banking crisis if there wasn't such zero touch regulation of the banking sector in pursuit of profit. But if the supply chain and production was just fine prior to Trump's tariffs, then while the reliance on China is indeed a strategic oversight, it isn't the cause of the current shortage. That's the tariff war.

Correct? If so, it could also be reversed fairly quickly, right?

Whereas the strategic fix for mining/refining is going to take years to achieve.

[chew-ie]

If someone still needs an example to see what a useless liar Trump is. He posted on his "Truth Social" propaganda machine:

Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND. How did that work out?

...all the while he just did the same in order to appease to Putin during the "peace talks".

@source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... a-missiles

[fiksal]

which is hilarious because he same time tells his base that Zelensky attacked Russia and that Russia must keep what it took, otherwise "what are they fighting for", he said once

his base must very quickly switch flags, which they wave

[fiksal]

a little hard to find good reporting, but it appears regions in Russia are running low on gas / gasoline, banks are not doing well, some regions have their water shut off.

official news will never admit it of course, and I also don't think Russians have it in them to revolt. But if people are out of water, food and money, it will make it hard for the country to keep operating and keep this war up

Ukraine might actually collapse Russia with that progression, considering that Russia made no gains in what, two years?

[Observe]

Russia is still grinding forward, at heavy cost. Ukraine hasn’t regained ground since 2022.

Russia isn’t collapsing — it still has resources, manpower, and the ability to adapt under strain. The war looks more like a long attritional struggle neither side can end quickly.

The “Russia is about to collapse” line doesn’t seem to match reality. Russian induction of new troops, far outnumbers anything that Ukraine can muster. Troop numbers alone, will eventually break Ukraine.

Lacking new developments, such as allies contributing a lot more, or Russian internal political collapse, the Ukraine train wreck will eventually fall, and then it'll be easy-peasy for Russian advance to pick up the pace.

Trump is a bit of a wild-card here (to say the least). He could wake up tomorrow morning, pissed off at Putin and announce a full scale invasion of Russia! In that event, I suppose you'd be singing praises for Trump?