The jasmine revolution spreads?

[Warenwolf]

I disagree with your assessment Bishop149:

From wiki:

Overall about 40.5% of the Egyptian population are in the range of extreme poor to near poor:

* 21% of the Egyptian population was near poor, meaning that about 14.6 million Egyptians can obtain their basic food requirements in addition to some basic services.

* 19.6% of the Egyptian population was poor, meaning that about 13.6 million Egyptians (one out of every five) had consumption expenditure below the poverty line and could not therefore obtain their basic food and non-food needs.

* 3.8% of the Egyptian population was extreme poor, meaning that about 2.6 million of the Egyptian poor could not obtain their basic food requirements even if they spent all their expenditure on food.

In addition, approximately 55 million poor and low-income citizens, representing about 75% of the population, are currently enrolled in food ration cards.

From purely economic aspect I have no trouble understanding why protesters want another man at the helm. I am sure that Egypt preforms better than many countries in the world but since so many countries are impoverished, it is not that much of an achievement...

[RegisterMe]

Jordan tries to get ahead of the curve?

[Bishop149]

You may well be right, my experience was largely limited to large cities (and small towns) for all I know outside these area it could be horrific.

You're probably right that I'm comparing to other places I've been where extreme poverty is so obvious there's no hiding it . . . .

I guess we'll have to wait and see if the current proto-revolution changes anything for the better.

[philip_hughes]

Not just Jordan... A stack of other countries are restless.

[imperium3]

Mubarak's going... or so he says.

[Warenwolf]

As already mentioned in previous post, Hosni Mubarak has announced that he will be stepping down as president - once his mandate ends in September...
( source )

While newspaper predict that he is setting up his son Gamal to take over, apparently certain documents wikileaks released contradicts such theories: Omar Suleiman, which Mubarak recently made his vice-president, is the one to take over...


In other news, Israel's political elite isn't too happy to see Mubarak go.

[brucewarren]

Oh look a flying pig

Does anyone believe that when September arrives he will really step down?

[shifty_powers]

Well firstly i'm not sure he'll given the chance to hang around that long. Secondly, the situation has fundamentally changed in Egypt. The people are no longer afraid of the current regime. If he tried to u-turn in September i think there'd be a bloody uprising...

[Warenwolf]

Al Jazeera, which has been the main source on the egypt's uprising, has faced region wide disruption of its signals . I am wondering if it is not all Egypt's regimes doing - perhaps other regimes in ME are giving a helping hand to Mubarak?

The journalists assume that a Post-Mubarak era is coming and have already started speculating on who is next: The Muslim Brotherhood

Well firstly i'm not sure he'll given the chance to hang around that long. Secondly, the situation has fundamentally changed in Egypt. The people are no longer afraid of the current regime. If he tried to u-turn in September i think there'd be a bloody uprising...

I am not sure that human psychology works that way. Right now the protesters have managed to gather hundreds of thousands. Will they do so eight months (en eternity in politics) from now on?
The leaderless opposition will fragment in many disunited groups that are at each others throats. Even as we speak the protesters have lost the initiative imho (if not the momentum).


I think also that Mubarak knows all of this above and gambles that some protesters will accept to wait for September. At same time, pro-Mubarak rallies have been organized and small scale clashes have already happened (Alexandria).
If he can foster enough violence on streets, that is not targeted towards him, Mubarak will manage to persuade Egyptian population that the land is heading in chaos - which will diminish the popular support for the protests.

[BeidAmmikon]

Until September there's time for those interested in "regime change" to build some opposition parties, and also to popularize and propel a figure who would challenge the would-be rulers whom the people know today.
Word goes, ElBaradei is quite suitable for bowing down to external influences, but fortunately he has not eaten sish-kebab together with his people long enough, so that until September he's got time to build an image for himself, as dissident and arch-nemesis of Mubarak. I've seen that some people in the street dismissed his pretenses offhand, which is good. If true, I hope the people will not fall for this.
Now then.

Egypt: Battle of the Narratives-Two conspiracy theories debunked
Why Washington Clings to a Failed Middle East Strategy
Winners and Losers From a Pharaoh’s Fall
Things Have to Change in Order to Remain the Same
Let My People Go

[Warenwolf]

I doubt that website you linked to would endorse anyone who isn't anti-western/anti-usa.

El-Baradei's problems is that he has been out of loop too long when it comes to the egypts internal problems and that he is generally inefficient politician hinted by this article by Al jazeera.

[BeidAmmikon]

I doubt that website you linked to would endorse anyone who isn't anti-western/anti-usa.

I beg to differ. It is an American site. There are some contributors there who will not stand accused for being anti-whom you said. Ron Paul, Patrick Buchanan and Paul Craig Roberts may be called anything, but not anti-USA. Anti-current-external-politics-of-USA, yes they are, but that does not make them anti-American. Au contraire, they decry interventionism, which has in fact brought upon the USA the anti-american sentiment. However, one can say that, lately, being anti-war makes one "anti-USA" by default.

[Warenwolf]

You may very well be right - I have mistaken the website you linked to with another site which tends to be anti-war as long as such stance allows it to bash europe or usa.

That being said, being during interesting myself, I learned to dismiss every (I must admit sometimes unjustifiably) text or article that uses adjectives freely or/and uses tendentious language (even if I notionally agree with what is being said).

[BeidAmmikon]

Heh, God willing, soon all warmongers will be history.

Immediately after Mubakar announced that he'll step down in September, pro-Mubarak* organized gangs have attacked the peaceful people in Tahrir Square. It's so visible they were prepared to act right after the announcement, they came in waves, riding buses. You just can't make this up... I guess that for them there was enough money to pay for their effort, perhaps from those 1.5 billion USD a year from the beloved, broke master - the US. Now Egyptians are fighting Egyptians, let's hope they will not suffer the same fate as their neighbor, Sudan.

* they could be also police forces, who were getting a raise

[Bishop149]

[ external image ]

As you can see the guardian even managed to find a picture of rioters mounted upon camels. . . you honestly couldn't make this stuff up. . .

On a more serious note it does all appear to be kicking off and looking rather ominous for much more violence.

[BeidAmmikon]

So, Mubarak was a "force for good". That was after people, doesn't matter how many, were killed in order for him to live and buy Israel (yes) some more "peace time".
Does anyone listen to this joker anymore? After all, he was discredited in a UK court and almost accused of treason for bringing the UK into war in Iraq on behalf of the US on false pretenses. Why are these warmongers, living in parallel universes as someone said, allowed to speak at all?
Makes me puke all over him and Co.


On a lighter, cleaner note, can't the ever-watching United Nations send in some Blue Helmets or something, to protect the museums in Cairo? I mean, what's in there means Egypt, and is heritage of human civilisation, not only of Egypt. Must they be called in, to stand ground, or can they also be sent in by the UN Secretariat (or whatchamacallit)? Those artifacts must be protected.
The UN is as silent and meek and emasculated such as the EU, these giants with feet of clay can't do anything of relevance, except when it comes to issuing directives and expressing their position on, say, the maximum length of carrots put up for sale...

If this goes on and the International Community does not intervene to protect our common heritage, then the same International Community fully deserves to enjoy the same chaos as these countries they blatantly ignore.

[Warenwolf]

Pro-Mubarak protesters (forces would be a more precise word imho) attacked several foreign journalists.

While the news article I linked to only mentions North American journalists, same happened to Swedish, Norwegian, Belgian (which was seriously hurt) and many other journalists.
Pro-Mubarak crowd appears to be especially angry at Al Jazeera network.

[imperium3]

These are the same "pro-Mubarak" crowd some of whom had police ID captured from them, correct?

I think this is Mubarak's method of trying to get rid of the protests with violence, without looking like a murderer to his paymasters. Because he can tell the US that he had nothing to do with the violence, and no matter how much evidence comes out there's no proof.

[brucewarren]

I concur.

I thought I heard a newscaster on ITN suggest it's also given him an
excuse to have the army clamp down in force.

This is dirty. Pay a group of thugs to commit murder then use same
murders to justify giving the armed forces the order to fire.

I really want to be wrong on this.

[shifty_powers]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook ... pts_revolt

IN MEDIEVAL times, Egypt’s sultans recruited tough guys from the ranks of Cairo’s poorest. These barefoot gangs acted as a second tier police force. In times of social peace the harafeesh, as they were known, could be enlisted to cheer the sultan during his parades. If some rival upstart threatened the ruler’s sleep, he would send in this rabble to wreck their wedding parties or sack their palaces. And if one of the city’s quarters acted rebellious the harafeesh would invade, smash its shops and deliver a good hiding to the inhabitants.

The charge upon protesters in Cairo’s Tahrir Square today by pro-Mubarak mobs looked rather like a similar tactic. After the failure of Mr Mubarak’s regular police to stanch the protests, and the refusal of his army to do the job, the president’s men appear to have resorted to a hired mob, bolstered by trained police thugs, to make a last try. In one episode of a battle that lasted from the early afternoon into the evening, a dozen horse and camel riders made the mistake of charging into the anti Mubarak crowd. It turned out they had been hired by a member of Mr Mubarak’s party representing the district near the Giza pyramids. These men apparently blame the pro-democracy folk for causing unrest, and interrupting the tourist traffic that is their livelihood.

There are other Medieval aspects to Cairo these days. The citizens’ patrols that now man local barricades, in the absence of police, arms themselves with sticks, knives and clubs. In the posh district of Zamalek, these are as likely to be golf clubs or cricket bats as two-by-fours. For extra measure, local Harley Davidson enthusiasts patrol around on their expensive motorbikes, looking mean in leather and barking into walkie talkies. As one banking executive sighed, while doing his volunteer three-hour shift to guard his building, “So this is the primitive state this regime has reduced us to, standing in front of our houses with sticks to guard our property?”

Egypt unrest: Protesters hold firm after violent day


I think most Egyptians see through this for what it is, a last desperate attempt by the old regime to hang on. Seems like they are having none of it though, and good for them. Hope they can hang on for the last part of this journey....