Just how much of a mess is Greece in, and what will happen?

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RegisterMe
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Post by RegisterMe »

BeidAmmikon wrote:And that's how international bankers take over a country.

Fight back, Greece, against the economic terrorists that helped ruining your country and who now OWN it. I am sure the PEOPLE do not want these parasites to own their lives.
There's a beginning for all, the higher you get the harder you fall. Let the parasites remember this.
Eh? I think you'll find the problem is much closer to (Greek) home. If you spend more than you earn and borrow more than you can pay back, why should anybody lend you any more money? And if you don't pay it back your bankrupt right?

Actually, I find your comments highly offensive. So I will leave it there.
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Post by Java Jawa »

BeidAmmikon wrote:And that's how international bankers take over a country.

Fight back, Greece, against the economic terrorists that helped ruining your country and who now OWN it. I am sure the PEOPLE do not want these parasites to own their lives.
There's a beginning for all, the higher you get the harder you fall. Let the parasites remember this.
Huh?

Unlike the American credit crunch, Greece's economic problems are almost entirely internally created through abysmal economic management, an overly large public sector and unsustainable spending on things like defence. They're fighting against an incredibly generous offer from the EU and IMF to bail Greece out at great cost to everyone else in the Eurozone. The Greek people will have to suck it up, and I'm sorry for that, but why didn't anyone stop to question Greece's unsustainable growth in the first place? It really has only itself to blame.
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amtct
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Post by amtct »

Java Jawa wrote:... unsustainable spending on things like defence.
50% true and that's becasue of NATO.A country from NATO must have some defence standards and that needs money even when you aren't in any war .That is the cost when people spend more money on bullets than food or investments.
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Post by Java Jawa »

amtct wrote:
Java Jawa wrote:... unsustainable spending on things like defence.
50% true and that's becasue of NATO.A country from NATO must have some defence standards and that needs money even when you aren't in any war .That is the cost when people spend more money on bullets than food or investments.
NATO has little/nothing to do with it. Fact is that Greece has been building up it's arsenal near the Turkish border for decades now in case things kick off. Of course, the more they build things up, the more agitated Turkey gets, and the more likely it is that the Aegean will turn into a warzone. Both have been talking the talk of lasting peace and co-operation, but they aren't exactly helping matters.
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Post by BeidAmmikon »

RegisterMe and Java Jawa, I don't understand your "Eh" and "Huh". You answer yourself the question of how did Greece got there in the first place - by borrowing and spending on things like public sector and defence. As if it was the only country that did this. Perhaps the UK followed the same path? UK budget deficit 'to surpass Greece's as worst in EU'

"why didn't anyone stop to question Greece's unsustainable growth in the first place?"
Exactly. Nobody has seen this and acted, so it must have been either poor planning in the EU, and/or someone was dragging an entire country down with criminal intentions. It's not the only country that's having these problems. If you followed the news, your remember the talk about Spain, Portugal, and Ireland as being next in line.
"It really has only itself to blame"
Oh really? Since when? Since being part of the EU, or before that?

What exactly is offensive, RegisterMe, and to whom exactly? You know what's offensive? Ten million people suffering because of what a small group of people decided in regard to their lives - letting them borrow, and spend, without warning them. And the central bodies of EU not preventing this and being caught on the wrong foot. And people dying in Athens because of poor economic management at all levels. That's offensive, to a human being who empathizes with his fellow humans.
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Post by amtct »

Java Jawa wrote:NATO has little/nothing to do with it. Fact is that Greece has been building up it's arsenal near the Turkish border for decades now in case things kick off. Of course, the more they build things up, the more agitated Turkey gets, and the more likely it is that the Aegean will turn into a warzone.
IIRC Greece is in NATO so that war isn't possible .NATO is not gang to go to wars (that works only if you're G.B :roll: ) so if Greece will do that it will be out of NATO and I don't think someone there will want that.
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Post by Dragoongfa »

amtct wrote:
Java Jawa wrote:NATO has little/nothing to do with it. Fact is that Greece has been building up it's arsenal near the Turkish border for decades now in case things kick off. Of course, the more they build things up, the more agitated Turkey gets, and the more likely it is that the Aegean will turn into a warzone.
IIRC Greece is in NATO so that war isn't possible .NATO is not gang to go to wars (that works only if you're G.B :roll: ) so if Greece will do that it will be out of NATO and I don't think someone there will want that.
Lets see.

The 1974 Cyprus invasion.
The 1987 oil search crisis.
The 1996 imia crisis.
And the now regular flybys over Greek isles and naval 'patrols' inside the Greek maritime border (not the international maritime zone).

We have been closer to war than most people think.

Regarding military spending:

Approx. 5% of our annual GDP is spent in the defense budget, this has been going on for the last 20 or so years, trouble is that Turkey has 1 million troops for a standing army and a budget that is near ours.

So no we can't stop buying guns.

I am sure Turkey would say something similar.

On current events, the austerity measures have been (almost) passed, just one more vote that has already been decided.

Today's protests have been far smaller without any news worthy incident, the public is shocked by yesterday's events and everyone (except the communists and the anarchists) is calling for calm and restraint.
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Post by amtct »

Turkey won't attack anyone because:
1.They want in NATO
2.They aren't "stupid enough" (I'm not calling anyone stupid ,its a saying ) to attack a NATO country.

Oh and 1974 its history ,think at the future not the past .
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Post by Dragoongfa »

amtct wrote:Turkey won't attack anyone because:
1.They want in NATO
2.They aren't "stupid enough" (I'm not calling anyone stupid ,its a saying ) to attack a NATO country.

Oh and 1974 its history ,think at the future not the past .
They do have a casus belli on us you know.

Something about us not having the legitimate 12 nautical mile maritime border.

1974 is still causing damages, a sovereign country was invaded, thousands displaced and missing.

There is still not a solution in sight.

EDIT: Also google about the sledgehammer plot by some Turkish generals (big news in Turkey), they are 'that stupid'.
Last edited by Dragoongfa on Thu, 6. May 10, 19:57, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by RegisterMe »

BeidAmmikon,

I work for a large international investment bank. A fact I have made abundantly clear many times. In your post you accused me, my colleagues, and my industry of:-

1. Trying to take over a country (assuming we even wanted to).
2. Being an "economic terrorist".
3. Helping to ruin a country and its population.
4. Being a parasite.
5. Looking to own peoples' lives.

I find that offensive. Particularly in the context of recent comments in this thread, about three innocent people who lost their lives directly at the hands of those who you would encourage to "fight back" (your words).

Fighting isn't needed. Belt tightening, resetting of expectations, and hard work are what's needed.


RM

PS. Dragoonfa, good news about the reaction to yesterday's events. About the only good thing that might possibly have come of it was to shock people and encourage precisely the calm and restraint you say is being called for.
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Dragoongfa
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Post by Dragoongfa »

Nah...

I spoke early, they were waiting for the night
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Post by RegisterMe »

Damn :-(. Hope you and yours are well, in fact I hope everybody is but you know what I mean....
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BeidAmmikon
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Post by BeidAmmikon »

Well RegisterMe, sorry to find out you took it personally. However, about the banking industry - I've always presumed that the highest bosses have to know what they're doing at any given moment, they have to plan their business for several decades, if not a century ahead and it seems this time the world is being turned upside down due to the contribution of, guess which industry? Here and everywhere, I wrote about those who do the policy planning for countries, about the upper levels, the big fish, not about those who work for them. If you think I got a quarrel with the workers who earn they wage from whoever they might work, then you got it all wrong and I'm sorry for that.

However, my sincere apologies being sent on their way, I would want now someone to explain to me and the rest of people here what is the purpose of being/raison d'etre of both World Bank and the IMF, and why did Germany have to give money by itself? Thanks.

And I would wish the destruction of Greek property to stop immediately, but who's to stop it? It's the people's own work in those destroyed buildings, there is no point in aggravating the damage.
For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against Principalities, against Powers,
against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places
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Post by RegisterMe »

BeidAmmikon wrote:I would want now someone to explain to me and the rest of people here what is the purpose of being/raison d'etre of both World Bank and the IMF, and why did Germany have to give money by itself? Thanks.
The World Bank

It's mission is essentially to aid developing countries. It's resources come on the one hand from selling highly rated bonds in the capital markets and lending the money out at a slightly higher rate (in essence not so very different to a regular retail bank) and on the other from donor countries.

The IMF

It's mission is essentially to try and ensure financial stability (which it often achieves through bailouts). It's resources are essentially membership dues paid on behalf of countries that become members, based on their GDP.

In short the World Bank is a development organisation, and the IMF is an insurance fund.

Lastly, I don't know why you think that Germany had to give money by itself, because it didn't. All countries that use the Euro as their currency contributed on the basis of their capital shares in the ECB. Here's a reference.

PS. I was offended because what you said was factually incorrect, emotive, and criticised an enormous body of people the world over erroneously.
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Post by Tsar_of_Cows »

Dragoongfa wrote:
amtct wrote:Turkey won't attack anyone because:
1.They want in NATO
2.They aren't "stupid enough" (I'm not calling anyone stupid ,its a saying ) to attack a NATO country.

Oh and 1974 its history ,think at the future not the past .
They do have a casus belli on us you know.

Something about us not having the legitimate 12 nautical mile maritime border.
This isn't Hearts of Iron or Europa Universallis, and I've had a similar argument with my flatmate about China deciding to do something silly like invade everywhere in Asia.

The fact is that war is not economically viable any more and hasn't been since the WW1 (as evidenced by the fact that the WW2 bankrupted Britain to the point where we couldn't hold onto our Empire and owed the USA money until 2005 or something daft). These days an artillery strike costs hundreds of thousands of dollars and launching a single missile can cost $60k+. Blowing up a car full of terrorists in Afghanistan costs more than I'm likely to earn in a year. A major offensive in WW1 probably cost less than bombing an airbase does today. War is expensive, the ends don't justify the means and no major power is going to go to war over their "principles" these days. Especially not after watching "Blighty and the Yanks Hilarious Middle Eastern Adventures" AKA Gulf War Reloaded.

The only reasonably economically viable war that's likely to happen any time soon is Argentina making another break for the Falklands. The resources are there and Argentinia's rather second world army is nice and cheap to mobilise. The only thing stopping them is that they'd screw themselves over diplomatically and we'd probably once again push them back into the sea.

Turkey won't declare war on Greece over something silly like a naval border dispute, because it'd bankrupt Turkey, destroy their chances of joining the EU and NATO, and they'd receive a bollocking from the rest of Europe.
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Post by BeidAmmikon »

Thanks for the references, RegisterMe.
About Germany: I understand that they were reluctant to give out a large amount of money, also the public opinion was largely against this aid to Greece, and "Germany" was a name that's been spelled out every time when the crisis in Greece was reported on. I do not understand - were there not enough money at IMF/World Bank to cover the needs, so Germany had to put in some more? Or the large share of money that Germany contributes with to the IMF has been prepared for other, more dire situations, so when they gave out a large share of it to Greece eventually, they nevertheless thought that it somehow flew out the window?
Forgive my ignorance, and if not, well, live with it :)
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against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places
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Post by Dragoongfa »

@ Tsar

They are already in NATO, the EU is a far off chance (the public here doesn't want Turkey in but our politicians do WTF) because France and Germany see the mess Turkey is, despite the diplomatic posturing.

Also preliminary surveys have shown large deposits of oil in the Aegean sea, exactly where the disputed area is located (and also the reason behind the 1987 crisis).
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Post by Antilogic »

Dragoongfa wrote:@ Tsar

They are already in NATO, the EU is a far off chance (the public here doesn't want Turkey in but our politicians do WTF)
Because the public seems them as an enemy but the politicians see it as a chance for longer term security?
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Post by RegisterMe »

EDIT: Just a note to say that this was in reply to Beid's last post :-).

Yes, "Germany" was reluctant to lend the money. There's a number of reasons, and good ones, for this that aren't part of the IMF or the World Bank's remit:-

* Germany, when it signed up to the Euro, gained an implicit guarantee that the Euro would be a "strong" currency. This is now under threat.
* Germany, when it signed up to the Euro, obtained a "no bailout" agreement (perhaps implicitly, I am not sure about this). This has now been thrown out of the window.
* To support this countries weren't meant to "cheat" to get into the Euro. They did (and Greece is by no means the only one, even France fiddled the books with a pension tweak). Everybody knew they did. But it was impolite to mention it. Now it's being brutally exposed.
* "Germany" doesn't like the fact that it retires at 67 when "Greece" retires at 53 (allow me some wriggle room on the numbers, the thrust of the argument is correct).
* The EU, of which Germany (with France) is one of the major drivers, is now having to face the fact that the Euro was a political project as much as, if not more than, a financial one. But this is not the message that was sold to the EU during its inception.
* At the same time the "EU", in the form of its political masters, is too proud to seek external help - look at how grudgingly the IMF's involvement was accepted, mainly because it would shine a bright light on some of its underlying structural flaws.
* Angela Merkel's government has a majority of one seat. There is a local election due imminently. Her opponents are making hay with all of the above.
* Nobody (ie European politician) wants to admit to the fact that their banks (whatever country you talk about) have huge exposure to Greece. If Greece defaults then European banks stand to loose billions, and will require another bailout on the same scale as we saw over the last couple of years. I suspect that this won't go down very well with the electorates ;-).

In short, truth is the first victim of politics. In Germany, for which read "the rest of Europe", we see a macro version of Greece's politicians (and parents) being unwilling to confess to the fact that the country was living on borrowed time (and the parents enjoying the sunshine on the backs of their childrens' hardship).

Compare and contrast with Ireland. Now there is a country that has come clean, and a population that is getting down to it. I mean no disrespect to Greece or its people by this, but I do respect Ireland and its people.

The emperor has no clothes. But the population of Europe has been sold a haute couture message for the last ten years.
I can't breathe.

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Post by Dragoongfa »

Titanx3 wrote:
Dragoongfa wrote:@ Tsar

They are already in NATO, the EU is a far off chance (the public here doesn't want Turkey in but our politicians do WTF)
Because the public seems them as an enemy but the politicians see it as a chance for longer term security?
That's what our politicians say but on the one hand we have been solidly backing Turkey for 10 years while on the other there has not been any positive return on the diplomatic level for that, quite the contrary both sides continue to increase their defense budget and military posturing is common place.

Scratch my back and I will scratch yours doesn't seem to work so far.

@ RM No disrespect but no one here retires at 53 (I just hate that number and I don't know where it came from and I am seeing it everywhere), the retirement age was 63 for men and 60 for women. Now equalized and moved to 65.
Last edited by Dragoongfa on Thu, 6. May 10, 22:02, edited 1 time in total.

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