Just how much of a mess is Greece in, and what will happen?

[imperium3]

I don't think a federal Europe would work at all, at least not in this century and probably not the next. There are too many ancient grudges and rivalries between its countries for them to possibly accept a central government. Especially between the UK and the mainland. But could you imagine the French accepting a central government with the Germans playing a major part? It just wouldn't be a happy situation, and that's without mentioning the economics of the matter.

[Gavrushka]

@Aye Capn

I think the reason the Eurozone fails is because you can't have monetary union without fiscal and political union - I am not sure if that is disputed widely now...

Any political/fiscal union would be well advised to study history very carefully- I couldn't agree more.

@Imperium

Yes... Needs a massive change in attitudes before it could ever become a reality... Centuries away? Yeh, probably...

[Aye Capn]

Do fiscal rules and the power necessary to enforce them against the will of the enforcees necessarily entail "union"?

[brucewarren]

I would say probably.

If a rule is to be enforced, you need someone to do the enforcing. If you
let each country police themselves in this matter, they simply won't so it.

You could allow each country to police its neighbours but I can't see for
example the UK allowing France to be it's keeper nor vice versa. A central
authority may well be needed for it to work

Otherwise it'll be like the press association pretending to be self policing.

[RegisterMe]

I would say absolutely. Without a comprehensive and rigorous political framework in place that provides functioning institutions (including laws and the ability to enforce them), and commonly accepted methods of dispute resolution, that is supported by all signatories with a transparent democratic mandate behind them, you have little more than nation states being strong-armed. Needless to say both nation states and their populations are resistant to such an approach.

As it is now expecting Samaras to sell more austerity to the Greeks is as realistic as Merkel selling the idea that there should be a massive fiscal transfer from Germany to Greece to the Germans.

How would the US as a nation, or Texas as a state, react to either party going “sod the constitution, we’re taking x off of you”?

[Aye Capn]

I understand.

Austerity by its nature breaks a lot of rice bowls. In the case of, say, California the Federal Government has the power to make the necessary cuts happen anyway; an outside group like the U.N. doesn't, and if it did people would riot in the streets.

(I picked California because the idea of Texas having so much debt we need the Feds to crack the whip on us is just unthinkable. In California it's inevitable ...)

[RegisterMe]

That's actually an extremely good analogy. In respect of the currency, budgets, austerity, and fiscal policy etc the UN is to individual American states as the EU(ro zone) is to individual member countries.

The model doesn't work, and won't work until it is legitimised and provided with functional mandates, organisations, institutions and policies etc.

[DeadlyDarkness]

Why do we need an EU anyway? We can't we just leave each country as it was and we can all happily trade with each other? It shouldn't just be a cartel where everyone pays protection money to stop Germany from invading the rest of Europe, or the French from having another Napoleon moment. Even Merkel herself implied this.

Essentially what has happened is that the rest of Europe has paid for German re-unification by purchasing German products. Now Germany expects the indebted countries to cough up. Quite how they are going to engineer this I am not sure, but the European Fiscal Compact goes someway towards this. We might find that Brussels ends up controlling the Greek fiscal policy, and this may be enforced by an EU "police force" eventually. If the unrest in Greece gets close to resulting in the government being overthrown, you can guarantee that this is what will happen.

[Aye Capn]

That's actually an extremely good analogy. In respect of the currency, budgets, austerity, and fiscal policy etc the UN is to individual American states as the EU(ro zone) is to individual member countries.

The model doesn't work, and won't work until it is legitimised and provided with functional mandates, organisations, institutions and policies etc.

Let me try out another analogy on you:

One brother is a broke alcoholic lying in the alley behind the bank strangling in a pool of his own debt while another brother is hard-working and sober.

Convincing them to move in together is going to be a tough sell. The alcoholic would have to stop drinking and his more sober sibling would have to pay the bar tab -- and have every expectation once the boozer moves in of being constantly hit up for beer money.

[RegisterMe]

That's pretty close to the bone (whilst I've referred to it before there's no reason you should have read the threads ).

My younger brother (he's 37 now) "broke" when he was seventeen. For the last twenty years he's been mentally ill, an alcoholic, and incapable of functioning in any meaningful way in society - he's been in a paranoid, delusional, drunken haze for twenty years. Always expecting hand outs. And generally getting them (a combination of state and family). Though sometimes not in the form he wants (food parcels rather than cash etc).

I really can't talk to his "world", but for the rest of the family it's been painful, upsetting, frustrating, guilty, helpless and.... bereft of explanation that can be rationalised by people who haven't been there.

My line, consistently, has been "He may never get well. If he doesn't there is no "fault" in play. But if he can get well he certainly won't until he wants to. No matter how much you want to you cannot "fix him". Howver painful it is accept this, because if you don't you're signing up to unconditional support where you have no demonstrable ability to influence the outcome".

Not easy to say, even as a somewhat estranged brother (I am very aware of how imcomprehensible the postion I took will be to some people). Impossible for a mother to do.

The good news is that he has been sober, and rational, if still very fragile, for the last three months. A record. So hope isn't lost.....

Analogy can be stretched too far, and I would hesitate to read too much into this reflecting on the situation in Europe. But some of the parallels are obvious and uncanny. It's been uncomfortably interesting thinking about it from this perspective.

[Observe]

The good news is that he has been sober, and rational, if still very fragile, for the last three months. A record. So hope isn't lost.....

I truly applaud you and your family for dealing with this difficulty in the manner you have. Sometimes, progress is the best we can hope for.

On a related note (not to this thread, but to subject of quote), several years ago, while working in the field of addiction, a colleague came to me with expression of frustration over one of his clients. This individual (alcoholic) was constantly going on the wagon, and then falling off again. After reviewing the record, we realized that the periods of abstinence were becoming longer, and the periods of drunkenness shorter. Instead of chastising the client for constantly falling prey to his weakness, my colleague and I recognized that he needed to praise this chap for his growing progress.

The important thing, is to help keep your brother alive long enough for him to sort out his own feelings of misery and for him to recognize his opportunities for a better life. Often, members of 12-step groups (AA in this case) are well suited at working in the trenches with this sort of thing.

My heart goes out to you.

[Aye Capn]

That's pretty close to the bone (whilst I've referred to it before there's no reason you should have read the threads ).

I know what you're going through. You by now recognize the situation you're in with great clarity.
I wish I'd had someone to tell me that what happened to the person I cared about wasn't my fault, but you're well past needing to be told that.
The best I can offer is that I recognize how challenging your situation has been.
I bet no one has ever told you this, but you should be proud of yourself. You've done well.

[bubba_000]

RegisterMe, I'm sorry for your brother and I hope he'll get better. I apologize if the following comment is inappropriate, but here goes.

You said he was (is?) mentally ill and an alcoholic. IMO both these things are illnesses. So, in this case, I don't see what's wrong in him expecting handouts (especially since you said they were more in the form of bare necessities). he may simply be incapable of fending for himself.

My line, consistently, has been "He may never get well. If he doesn't there is no "fault" in play. But if he can get well he certainly won't until he wants to. No matter how much you want to you cannot "fix him". Howver painful it is accept this, because if you don't you're signing up to unconditional support where you have no demonstrable ability to influence the outcome".

You may not be able to "fix" him, but by continuing to help him you can at least slow down the worsening of his condition. Of course this is far from what could be considered a desirable outcome, but the alternative is much worse. I think it's fair to say that without your(as in you and your family) help it would be much worse to him.

Some people can simply not help themselves (for whatever reason). If you help them, they may never "fix" themselves. If you don't, it's very likely that they'll become much, much worse. I don't think you'd achieve much by just letting that person be.



This is probably a very bad analogy to the subject at hand, though...

[Tsar_of_Cows]

My line, consistently, has been "He may never get well. If he doesn't there is no "fault" in play. But if he can get well he certainly won't until he wants to. No matter how much you want to you cannot "fix him". Howver painful it is accept this, because if you don't you're signing up to unconditional support where you have no demonstrable ability to influence the outcome".

You may not be able to "fix" him, but by continuing to help him you can at least slow down the worsening of his condition. Of course this is far from what could be considered a desirable outcome, but the alternative is much worse. I think it's fair to say that without your(as in you and your family) help it would be much worse to him.

Some people can simply not help themselves (for whatever reason). If you help them, they may never "fix" themselves. If you don't, it's very likely that they'll become much, much worse. I don't think you'd achieve much by just letting that person be.



This is probably a very bad analogy to the subject at hand, though...

It depends on an individual basis. I have sadly had friends who "broke" in various ways and for various reasons. One of them, for example, blames everything on everyone else, so trying to help him is basically a waste of time - he just views it as you interfering and making things worse. The last time I spoke to him I did my best to give him some encouragement and offered him advice (which he asked for) on how to sort things out. He took the advice, thanked me for it and then never spoke to me again.

Another friend suffers from alcoholism. Myself and a mutual friend managed to convince him to get help. And he has at least been going to get that help, but I'm worried that he's still drinking far too much and he's recently fallen in with a crowd of people whose idea of a good weekend is to be drunk from 5pm on Friday until you pass out sometime on Sunday.

It's pretty painful to see, especially after carefully but firmly convincing him to get help, and pointing him in the direction of help I thought would benefit him personally, but at the end of the day RM is right. I can't fix him, I can't live his life for him. If he wants to continue on this path, even after I've tried my very best, then there's nothing more I can do until he wants to change.

[Dragoongfa]

Hello everyone, after a PM from a fellow off-topicer asking about how bad it really is here in Greece, I decided to break my self imposed exile from this forum and answer that question to the best of my ability.

How bad is it here and what will happen…

For a short answer, it is really messed up and it is getting worse each passing day.

For a long answer, well be prepared for a long post.

1st Topic:
Economy…

Well the economy is in a state of constant and uncontrolled collapse. From the time this crisis started here Greece has lost more than 25% of its initial GDP and the unemployment rate has risen to unprecedented levels; 25% of the economically active population is unemployed, a percentage that rises to 60% in the young age group.

From the first day that this crisis has started everything has been handled wrong by everyone, from the consecutive Greek governments to the EU, ECB and IMF troika.

The continuous cuts in government spending, the wage cuts for both private and government sectors and the tax increases have practically destroyed the economy and have driven it to levels that surpass the Great recession from the early 20th century and now rival the economic collapse felt during prolonged warfare. It practically is unheard of for a country to face such an economic collapse during peacetime.

As an unemployed youth I witness firsthand the social collapse that has come from such an economic downfall. New job openings are practically nonexistent and any job seems to be a golden opportunity for anyone regardless of background and former economic status.

For the future, 2013 will be yet another year of continuous recession and 2014 will probably follow suit. The forecasts from the IMF say that a faint growth will be achieved by the end of 2014 but the IMF has time and time again failed at its predictions. As a matter of fact a same prediction at the time the first bailout was signed said that by 2012 Greece would have returned to growth, the truth is that the economy will have shrunk by 7% this year alone.

Is the bailout working?

No, Greece had a debt of 120% of its GDP at the start of this crisis and even after a debt write off it now stands at 189% of its GDP and will climb even higher as the recession continues. The debt remains unmanageable and with the recession that is the outcome of the failed policies imposed by the troika it will never be manageable.

2nd Topic:
Politics…

The situation remains relatively the same as the last time I reported on this subject.

Right now the government is a collaboration government between the leading center-right party and the two small center-left parties.

The center right party of New Democracy remains relatively stable, at around 20% vote strength, just a little lower than the past election. The two center left parties PASOK and Democratic Left, are disintegrating and their leaders are openly contemplating turning away from the collaboration government before they suffer the fate of ultra conservative LAOS which used to support the previous collaboration government and now it has practically ceased to exist as a political entity.

PASOK is also plagued by corruption scandals and by how it handled the signing of the first bailout package. An example of such a scandal and something that has reached international media is the handling of the so called “Lagarde” list. In essence this list contain the names of Greeks that had bank accounts in a single large bank of Switzerland, most of those accounts contained large amounts of money that surely contained tax evaded income. This list was give from the then French minister of economics Cristine Lagarde to the then Greek minister of Economics George Papakonstantinou of PASOK.

Papakonstantinou admitted that he didn’t use the list to cross check with the Greek tax records because (as he said) ‘he feared that the use of that list would be illegal’, after pressure from a parliamentary committee Papakonstantinou said that he lost the list. Unsurprisingly the list later surfaced in the press and the reporter who published it was quickly on charges at court but in the end he was found innocent.

The published list contained names of high ranking members of all political parties (with the exception of Golden Dawn), well known lawyers, journalists and entrepreneurs.

The second largest Greek party, SYRIZA, which stands for Coalition of Root Breaking Left, has increased in strength and now stands at around 23% of vote strength, far too low in order to form a government. The truth is that Syriza is not a single party but a ridiculous conglomeration of small far left parties (some of it’s members have openly supported terrorist groups and have resorted to violence in the past). To be frank the only thing that keeps Syriza together is its somewhat charismatic young leader.

Before the crisis Syriza had barely entered the parliament but after its start, it now stands as the second power. The truth is that Syriza doesn’t really want to get to power and the continuous blunders of its members show that. Most of its new voting power came from PASOK. Practically Syriza is seen by many as a renewed PASOK and yes, many of its members started out from PASOK.

The other political power and right now the third strongest party is the Far Right Golden Dawn at around 14% of vote strength. I am sure that there have been many negative reports in the media about this party and truth be told Golden Dawn actually deserves much of that flak but the picture that is painted is far from correct or even partially accurate.

Golden Dawn based itself on the vacuum left by New Democracy on the conservative portion of the Greek populace, initially that vacuum was handled by LAOS but after its collapse all of those votes strengthened Golden Dawn. Many accuse Golden Dawn of being a Neo Nazi group and many of their oldest members are exactly that, but Golden Dawn is far more complex than that and covers a far broader spectrum.

Golden dawn wouldn’t have come to power if two things worked in Greece: The police and the Judicial system. Simply put the rampant crime rate and the practically absent justice system are part of the fuel that powers Golden Dawn. I am sure that there have been many reports about attacks of Golden Dawn members against immigrants and how it is a racist organization. Let me put this straight, Golden Dawn is a racist organization but the vast majority of its voters are not racist. In the areas that Golden Dawn has a large % of the vote, Golden Dawn has actually helped the Greek populace and routed out all criminal elements that it would find with the use of violence. Drug trafficking, prostitution and muggings are considerably fewer in number in areas where Golden Dawn has a presence.

Yes many of the attacks against immigrants that are reported are carried out by Golden Dawn members but very few of the immigrants in question (the vast majority of them illegals) press charges even when they get support from PMs of Syriza. The reason for this is partially a fear that these immigrants have for Golden Dawn but the other reason is that most of the attacks were done during the act of criminal activities by the immigrants in question.

Another reason as to why Golden Dawn is rising is the polarization of the social structure in Greece by the left. For many years the fringe far left parties in Greece have used their own private militias to attack anything and anyone that they deemed liberal or ‘fascist’. Attacks during book signings and various gatherings were and still are commonplace. In the end anyone that voiced his concern about certain aspects of Greek reality would be immediately branded as fascist and would get the attention of these militias. The police would never intervene against these attacks and now there are attacks against people whose only mistake is to wear a T-shirt that has the Greek flag on it.

This polarization can easily be seen in the political rallies of the various parties, you will have trouble to find a Greek flag during a rally organized by Syriza or the Communist Party but you will find an overabundance of Greek flags during a Golden Dawn rally.

3rd Topic
Society…

This is the saddest part of all, Greek have shown an uncharacteristic level of patience these past few years but that patience is slowly giving ground to anger. As I already said the unemployment rate has skyrocketed, the poverty index has tripled and the social structure is collapsing alongside the economy.

You would hardly see any homeless in Greece in the years before the crisis but right now the homeless in Athens alone are believed to be 20 to 30 thousands in number and that number is constantly increasing.

The education system is also collapsing, book shortages and problems with the heating systems in schools are commonplace while reports that children collapse from famine during class are frequent and they increase at an alarming rate.

The government has taken a somewhat tougher approach to the immigration problem; police operations to find and capture illegal immigrants are frequent but the sheer number of the illegal immigrants takes its toll on the system. Illegal immigrant detention camps are full at the first few days of their operation while deportations continue to increase.

With this tough stance on immigration the police have also reported a decrease in assaults and muggings by 20% in all areas.

This stance by the government is seen by many as the only thing that keeps New Democracy afloat when PASOK has already collapsed to minor party status.

Still the judicial system remains stalled while the actions of the police are seen as too little and too late by many.

4th Topic
Personal…

These past few months I have successfully combated depression and I have managed to reassert control over my emotions. I remain unemployed and I can’t see myself getting a job in the near future. I don’t have any money, I have put on some weight (unemployment + my mother's cooking = fat) and it looks like that I am going to fulfill my military obligations in 2013.

Oh well, at least I will have other worries on my mind when I am in the army…

[eladan]

Ouch - that sounds really bad, mate.

I really think that Greece has to exit the EU before things have a chance to improve. I hope I'm wrong - the pollies seem determined to keep Greece in there come what may. I just hope that the welfare of Greece is their priority, as I currently suspect it's not.

Hang in there. At least the army isn't a job you're likely to lose.

[Usenko]

Welcome back Dragoon! We've missed you!

[Skism]

Im very sorry to hear what is happening Dragonfa

I agree with Eladan - you need to exit the EU though I think you know that will be no easy way initially ether.

[Shrewd135]

Remember, at its worst, all you really need is food, water, shelter, clothing, air...

Anything else, is a luxury. You will learn that in the army... if they do it right.

Remember, you greeks had spartan blood at one time.. it has just gotten thin. Time to build it back up.

In a time when we have vehicles, science, technology, medicine, physics, colleges, and more, that you could think that you have nothing is beyond me, and could literally be a form of mental illness. I do not make light of your misfortune, but honestly, THINK. Look past the bull that others are trying to pile on you, and KNOW that you have everything you need. You may not have what you want... but that will come in time if you just Think for 2 seconds of all that you do have.

[Jumee]

Remember, at its worst, all you really need is food, water, shelter, clothing, air...

Anything else, is a luxury. You will learn that in the army... if they do it right

stoicism, heh? could never understand whats the appeal of that philosophy (even though I did go through a period of extreme poverty when even the basics "food, water, shelter, clothing" were hardly available)