Coronavirus: COVID-19

[Santi]

I think it's times like these that the currency system just doesn't work. Especially when there is too much focus on stock markets and share prices, and profits. It sadly shows how greedy some people are. or how selfish the human race is. Especially when there there are people that need support, not just in the US, but developing countries too.

A lot of people and institutions depend on the stock market and share price, like pension funds, private pensions contributions, small mum & pop investors, and lets not go into the companies whose shares guarantee credits lines to stay afloat. I am lucky as I still have years to work, but part of my retirement plan has been wiped out, I have no problem with that, as investing in the stock market carries risks that you have to assume, but for retired people whose income is topped up by income due to shares, it is been catastrophic.

[red assassin]

I did see the Oxford University equation, suggesting we'd almost all caught it, but I couldn't get my head around why there hadn't been more deaths, if that was the case. - Mind, I'm not entirely sure of the incubation period. Not sure if anyone is...

Between about 5 and 14 days, is the generally accepted figure.

I read this, but unfortunately can't find it now - it'd be bbc or guardian. The article was actually highlighting "why are models not accurate". For example, early predictions were wrong because it used data from 2002 which assumed different transmission rate or incubation period or something and did not use statistics from China's outbreak. The Oxford one suggesting 32 million were already infected was indicative of worst case - but was taken as yet another example that the models are based on assumptions rather than data to execute their modelling - which may or may not be remotely correct, accurate, reasonable etc as assumptions are just that (and always questionable). May also explain sudden changes in policy, as perhaps data was starting to be used and some shocking outcomes predicted.

One thing is for sure - UK numbers seem low. Having read plenty of articles with specific wording I believe that's only because confirmed cases are represented, and in the UK we only test those admitted to hospital.
Therefore for everyone who had symptoms but isn't in hospital (including the 36 year old Londoner who died at home after being told to stay at home the day before) aren't being included. So even those told to stay at home because it sounds like they have it... aren't included. I assume this anyway. The media says only admissions are tested

This means we can't have a US style jump of 10,000 cases in a day - not because we've got great measures, but simply because they also say they can only conduct 6,000 tests a day.

You're thinking of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -modelling

First, let’s look at what the Oxford team actually did. Its analysis focused on deaths in the UK and Italy. If we view the data in isolation, there are several scenarios that could potentially be consistent with the observed pattern of deaths. Perhaps there are lots of infections and a low severity. Or fewer infections and a higher severity.

The Oxford researchers suggested there were multiple scenarios that could explain the deaths reported in the UK, including those in which there have been a huge number of infections that haven’t been detected. The media picked up on the most extreme of these scenarios, which implied the majority of the UK had already been infected. But remember, this analysis focused solely on deaths – and that’s not the only data we have for Covid-19.
[...]
Based on these studies, it seems about 20–80% of people infected with Covid-19 could show symptoms. If this range turns out to be correct – and we combine it with our estimate that one in 15 people with symptoms are being reported – it would mean that hundreds of thousands of people in the UK have probably been infected with Covid-19 already, but not tens of millions. Of course, all these early studies have limitations in how the data was collected and what groups were being studied. To understand how much infection there has actually been, what we need are studies that collect blood samples from the wider population and test for previous exposure to Covid-19. As it happens, this was the key point made by the Oxford researchers in their paper, and it’s one I fully agree with.

(emphasis mine)

[Chips]

So anyway, at times like this, we humans have a lot to answer for, and really shows our bad sides. especailly when its certain people at the top who is always thinking of themselves rather then others.

It's easy only to see the negatives and the bad. On the other hand, there are companies turning their hand to produce things at very short notice that they never intended to produce - and their workers are pulling out all the stops to achieve it.
In the UK, there's 500,000 people volunteering within 24 hours to help move goods (whether that's shopping or medical supplies/deliveries for individuals) or even just call the vulnerable and offer them moral support.

Give it some time and you'll see more of the best of people.

As for stocks and shares, it isn't so simplistic as implied but would require way more than I am wiling to give (or even know/understand as there's far better suited to it than me here).

Beyond all - please don't take Trump's insano behaviour as indicative of society in general.

@Red "You're thinking of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -modelling"

I don't think it is that article precisely, but it conveys part of the message

[Alan Phipps]

I would have thought that at the time of a declared global pandemic, the international stock market and financial institutions would agree to freeze major share prices and exchange rates until a time that realistic trading and dealing could resume. Of course some small firms may go entirely under and there will be losses for firms whose working practices, markets and even products or services have been drastically affected. It would be up to the international stock trading and financial exchange rule makers to come up with a less damaging way of handling those situations during the period before full market and exchange rate dealing resumption. Let's face it, stock trading and exchange are commercially vital but are not actually 'real'; they are more about perceptions, manipulation and rules.

Yes I know, that's complete fantasy on my part.

[matthewfarmery]

I think it's times like these that the currency system just doesn't work. Especially when there is too much focus on stock markets and share prices, and profits. It sadly shows how greedy some people are. or how selfish the human race is. Especially when there there are people that need support, not just in the US, but developing countries too.

A lot of people and institutions depend on the stock market and share price, like pension funds, private pensions contributions, small mum & pop investors, and lets not go into the companies whose shares guarantee credits lines to stay afloat. I am lucky as I still have years to work, but part of my retirement plan has been wiped out, I have no problem with that, as investing in the stock market carries risks that you have to assume, but for retired people whose income is topped up by income due to shares, it is been catastrophic.

But the problem is, you just can't throw money at a problem like this. and currently with the US trying to keep both the Dow Jones afloat, and the way that the US is chucking tonnes of money, just isn't working. If the latest stimulus package doesn't work, its basically no plan B. but of course, its not going to work. its times like these, that money is not the solution. Yet, plenty of people will end up suffering as a result. and I'm not talking just about the US here. but everywhere, including countries that are barely able to support themselves.

Yes the stock market should be frozen, rich countries should be supporting poorer ones. instead, you just see greed. and people not doing much to help others. (yes there are those that are, but considering this is a world problem, then the world should be united. But it isn't. there are still huge divides. and the biggest issue is money.

Again, money can't fix this, and the US are still to think money can, until that changes, I have a very dim view on humanity in general.

Edit

the US is now only 1500 (roughly) cases behind Italy. and with a large spike of confirmed cases, and new deaths. Its not over until the fat lady sings, and right now, she not even close.

[burger1]

They should have halted trading on the stock market. Short sellers might have made some money. On the other hand people may need to withdraw the money to survive. Eventually the markets will go up again. There's not a lot of stuff to put money into so when people start putting the money back in the market it will rise and more money will be added.

[matthewfarmery]

The US is now the top hot spot for confirmed cases. currently at 82,179.

[RegisterMe]

They should have halted trading on the stock market. Short sellers might have made some money.

That's a... somewhat naive view. I'd explain but I managed to find some wine earlier today. I'm happy to expand on this here or via pm......

[felter]

Sometimes it's not nice when predictions come true.

Mind you the only reason America has the most confirmed cases of Covid-19, is because the Chinese are lying about their amount of confirmed cases, so sayith the most smartest person on the planet.

Good news for me, my hospital appointments have been cancelled so I don't have to risk the trip to the hospital. Not just that, according to the BBC news, the supermarkets have been given a list of the most vulnerable people in the country, yes the whole country, and they are to get preferential treatment when it comes to home delivery, YAY for me, I'm a most vulnerable person. Wait what's that, it's only England and Wales, but, BUT they said the country, I'm not in England or Wales does that mean I'm not in part of the country, does that mean even though I'm classified as one of those most vulnerable people, I don't get a look in, just because I'm in Scotland, that kind a sucks.

And what's with those Aussie folks and their hair cuts, are they effing nuts. They may die from a virus but at least they will have a tidy haircut. Right now would I want someone playing around with my hair by someone that has been playing around with other peoples hair before me, I think not, total insanity. The stupid Italians were doing the exact same thing, all that was happening was the hairdressers were moving the virus from one person to the next. Idiots.

[CBJ]

So, Boris has it. This will be an interesting test of his leadership.

[pjknibbs]

So, Boris has it. This will be an interesting test of his leadership.

Not sure it'll make much difference. I'm guessing this is the reason he hasn't been the one doing the coronavirus updates on TV for the past couple of days, though.

[RegisterMe]

This is worth reading (an interview with a Cambridge virologist

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... 9-9104220/

[Gavrushka]

Great article, very informative. Thanks for linking, RM.

So, if you've a dry cough and a high temperature, you really are likely to have the Covid-19 now. - I have, as has my 82 (on Monday) year old mum with all her pre-existing conditions, including cancer and heart failure, and yet she's doing a hell of a lot better than me.

Very interesting on how short a time period people are contagious too...

[pjknibbs]

I don't actually have anything to measure my temperature with--I know I had a digital thermometer in the cupboard at one point, but I couldn't find it t'other day search as I might. Seems unlikely I'll get a replacement in the middle of this furore!

[Chips]

I don't actually have anything to measure my temperature with--I know I had a digital thermometer in the cupboard at one point, but I couldn't find it t'other day search as I might. Seems unlikely I'll get a replacement in the middle of this furore!

TBH the general advice was if you feel hot (to the touch). Only problem was that I felt hot to the touch, was shivering cold, yet my digital therm was telling me 36.2 -> 37.1 over days. Trust the tech I say rather than "how do you feel" type advice.
Still, good social distancing at present. Was so happy my delivery (it's not food) arrived this morning, a week late, that I jumped out of bed to race down stairs before I realised I was about to open the door and the postman was likely NOT interested in finding out about my vegetable shortage

[Gavrushka]

I don't actually have anything to measure my temperature with--I know I had a digital thermometer in the cupboard at one point, but I couldn't find it t'other day search as I might. Seems unlikely I'll get a replacement in the middle of this furore!

Last week, there were loads of well priced options for medical thermometers on Amazon. - £7.00 gets you a decent one.


Just paid £16.00 for 12 sachets of baker's yeast...

[Vertigo 7]

just got a massive debrief from my organization's CMO. one dr attending the meeting gave us the following:

From Dr Sanderson to Everyone: 09:38 AM
We expect immunity to develop after infection. For a vaccine to work, you have to develop immunity. As opposed to influenza, COVID-19 appears to have a stable structure so a yearly update may not be necessary for a successful vaccine.

But they are fully expecting this to get worse and they're closely monitoring and expanding bed capability as quickly as they can. Best case scenario, once cases start to decline, careful monitoring and maintaining social distancing will be necessary for 12-18 months once the threshold falls below a "managed" point to avoid further outbreaks.

oh and they also said do not take chloroquine. They referenced a thinger saying it has been shown to not be effective at treating the virus.

[matthewfarmery]

So, Boris has it. This will be an interesting test of his leadership.

Also heard that Prince Charles also has it.

[matthewfarmery]

Well New York is certainly been hit hard by this thing, latest

March 27 (GMT)

alert 7865 new cases and 89 new deaths in the United States

NEW YORK (from New York Governor Cuomo daily briefing):
Apex of hospital need could be in 21 days from now in New York
All hospitals need to increase capacity by 50%, some by 100%
Need a total of 140,000 hospital beds. Currently have 53,000 (an additional 87,000 hospital beds are needed)
Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed
Will use college dormitories, hotels, nursing homes, and all possible space by converting it to hospitals if needed in April
138,376 people have been tested
Schools will stay closed for an additional 2 weeks after April 1, to then reassess the situation and extend again if needed. 180 days requirement has been waived
"This is not going to be a short deployment [...] This is going to be weeks, and weeks, and weeks [...] This is a rescue mission you are on, to save lives. [...] You are living a moment in history that will change and forge character"

Its certainly putting their hospitals under great strain, again, anyone thinking that the US will be re opened for business by Easter, is both short sighted and stupid. (IE Trump)

If NY does get those beds, then the death toll will also escalate. Again, my point, you just can't throw money at a problem like this, especailly if beds are in short supply. and also ventilators.

[RegisterMe]

Again, my point, you just can't throw money at a problem like this, especailly if beds are in short supply. and also ventilators.

And staff.