The jasmine revolution spreads?

[brucewarren]

He's perfectly safe unfortunately. He's got no oil so the west doesn't
care.

[JAFA_NZ]

I would've thought Kim Il Bob's Diamonds were just as good a reason to fix him as Oil would've been.

& Doesn't Zimbobwe have a bunch of other Natural Resources worth Looti... err... Recovering?

[RegisterMe]

& Doesn't Zimbobwe have a bunch of other Natural Resources worth Looti... err... Recovering?

Lots - diamonds, platinum, significant coal deposits, chromate, the list goes on. Don't forget that Zimbabwe used to be the breadbasket of Africa as well.

But Mugabwe / Zimbabwe and what should be done about it is another discussion.....

[imperium3]

I'll quote myself:

I have no illusion about Egypts future even if they overthrow the regime. The people's lot will not improve instantly. Instead Egypt will face years of political instability. Democracy and rule of law are not created overnight.
I foresee 10-20 years of instability before they create strong democratic society (given they manage to overthrow the regime).


Exchange the word Egypt with Libya and you'll have my predictions of that country's future. Of course - throw in a civil war, in which regime is defeated and the country then splits up between various warlords and 10-20 years instability becomes 20-40 years of instability.

Although I am sure with all that oil in Libya - let's be honest - certain powers will make sure that the war doesn't last too long.

This is a fairly accurate assessment, but disturbing all the same when you consider that after Libya the protests in places like Morocco and Yemen will only grow and grow. Imagine the whole of North Africa riven with instability for 10-20 years. In the worst case scenario we could end up with half a continent looking like Somalia...

What would that mean for their neighbours in Europe and Africa. I foresee vast tides of refugees attempting to enter the EU (there already has been a surge of Tunisians into Greece, which looks to be coming apart at the seams). Given the disastrous financial state of many EU countries (starting with Greece, Spain and Italy), could the instability spread into Europe? And where would that leave us?

I know I poured scepticism on Beid's earlier post about the "ghostly horseman" in Egypt. But I am increasingly becoming reminded of a similar passage...

And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.

Edit: Also my last in this thread looks to be my 1,000th post! Yay

[Warenwolf]

The situation in Libya heats up:

Two helicopters and two Mirage F1 jet fighters from Libya have landed in Malta. The helicopter was said to be carrying French oil workers, and the fighter pilots left Benghazi when an airbase there was overrun by protesters.

There are also reports of aerial and naval bombardment of the Tripoli. Bit unusual method for crowd control, but I guess when you can't count on the army and their tanks, you take whatever is at hand.



In other news, Italy has voiced alarm at the prospect of the Gaddafi government collapsing.


@Imperium
I doubt Europe could be destabilized by external factors such as these happening in Libya.
North Africa and ME were bound to explode sooner or later.

I see what happens there as an unavoidable process to normal states that take care of their citizens and where rule of law applies to all equally.
No doubt some will slide back to dictatorships over the time or the pseudo-democracies.
But I have no doubt that in the long run we all profit (some of us less than they did before but I that is their problem) from emergence of the normal states in the region. But not instantly...



BTW, I don't think posting in OFF-Topic counts toward your post count. So you have 1000+ on topic posts. There is no reason for being proud about hanging out on the non-relevant parts of this forum.

[RegisterMe]

In other news, Italy has voiced alarm at the prospect of the Gaddafi government collapsing.

Maybe Ruby Hearstealer was the grandaughter of Gadaffi and not Mubarak then?

[Warenwolf]

I don't worry too much about Berlusconi. As long as there is poverty in the world, he will have access to all the underage and other prostitutes he needs...

[BeidAmmikon]

I wouldn't trust any such shocking reports, such as jets firing on people, until there's some video of it. Although, jets were buzzing above Tahrir square in Egypt too - I got it taped...
In such times, there's a lot of disinformation.

As to the horse that imperium3 mentioned, well, that's called either trash/hoax/illusion, or a self-fulfilling prophecy - depending on who's doing the interpretation (as the article I linked to clearly stated.) And damned be those who are using such illusions to bring about fulfilment of prophecies!

[Warenwolf]

Well, you are absolutely right regarding the disinformation in such situations. Rumor tend to be taken as facts during such upheavals.

However I don't rule it out - Gaddafi is not fighting demonstrations like those in Egypt but a general uprising or revolution if you want. Don't expect any videos of the events though - Libya is far less modernized society than Egypt. Not many cameras or phones with inbuilt cameras around...

Information is from here.

This just in from BBC Monitoring, citing the online edition of opposition newspaper Libya al-Yawm: "Mercenaries were reportedly shooting at crowds in Tripoli during an intense air assault. Intense aerial bombing in Tripoli... Panic and fear are overcoming the situation."

Edit:
Just in from BBC:

More info on those two Libyan jets that landed in Malta: Maltese government officials say their two pilots defected having been ordered to bomb protesters. One of them has requested political asylum, Reuters reports.

I did wonder about the flight time from Benghazi to Malta when the reports told that they were fleeing from an airbase base there that was being overrun. The Benghazi fell yesterday (?) so they should have been in Malta yesterday too.
Al Jazeera now also reports about the air strikes...

[BeidAmmikon]

An end must be put to this filth, leaders killing their people. It is a widespread situation in the world today. I know a cheap and fast answer - it's something that usually gets out of a gun, preferably one of their bodyguards.

[Warenwolf]

From Reuters:

Tripoli residents gave conflicting reports Monday, with some saying they could hear gunfire in the Libyan capital and a political activist telling Al Jazeera warplanes were bombing the city.

The way I figure it - perhaps there was bombing somewhere in the Libya - loyalists attacking rebel units or tribes.

Political activist being what they are, overstated the event...

I saw a brief video of the bombing where you could supposedly hear the sounds of air strikes but to me it sounded more of a 80 mm or 120 mm mortar fire - single shell being fired.


I am just speculating really about what it sounded like but it wasn't air strike.

[Tracker001]

Al Jazeera English: Live Stream
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now

Out of London (Me thinks) English News anchors anyway .

A flash player update came up ,but it worked fine for me without clicking the add on.

"The Assistant Ambassador form Lybia to the U.N. say's Gaddafi need's to go."

(I'm watching live so any other sources will need to be found if you want confirmation. Happy hunting )

[Warenwolf]

Some times ago there were group of clerics urging the Libyan regime to stop killing their own population.
Well, Gaddafi seems to have pi**** off the very same clerics since today they are calling to an open rebellion against the regime which is "divinely ordained" (a.k.a they issued a fatwa):

Two days ago we made an appeal to the Libyan regime and its helpers to stop killing their brothers and sisters. They have demonstrated total arrogant impunity and continued, and even intensified, their bloody crimes against humanity. They have thereby demonstrated total infidelity to the guidance of God and His beloved Prophet (peace be upon him). This renders them undeserving of any obedience or support, and makes rebelling against them by all means possible a divinely ordained duty upon every able Muslim, male or female, to the extent of their capacity. We support our brave brother and colleague Sheikh al-Sadiq al-Ghriani in his recent fatwas, and call for his immediate release unharmed. We also call for the immediate release of all imprisoned demonstrators, including many of our young students.

Qaradawi, a Sunni cleric from Egypt, was more explicit:

"I am issuing a fatwa now to kill Gaddafi. To any army soldier, to any man who can pull the trigger and kill this man to do so."

This was done live at Al Jazeera TV under an interview.

[BeidAmmikon]

Qaradawi, a Sunni cleric from Egypt, was more explicit:

"I am issuing a fatwa now to kill Gaddafi. To any army soldier, to any man who can pull the trigger and kill this man to do so."

Which just goes to show I was right about the bullet. Ah well, great minds think alike Since those people are closest to the leaders, they have to be feared most.

[philip_hughes]

Those that live by the sword die by the sword. Fortunately, I live by a small creek.

**borrowed from spike milligan**

[Warenwolf]

Few people in another forum I sometimes participate in, work in Libya and claim that reports of the massacres, airplane bombings are greatly exaggerated. This comes from area around (and outside) the city of Tripoli.
There is great tensions and shots being fired now and then but nothing major. They are speculating that largest threat to Gaddafi are rebel army units and not protesters.

Other that work in the east of the country report that it seems that nobody is in control. Looters abound. Situation is confused.

[BeidAmmikon]

Russia blames Google for stirring Egypt unrest (Reuters)
I told you so

[Warenwolf]

I am not sure of what you are implying right now.

Do you think Google Inc overthrew the government of Egypt?

Or do you think that russian Siloviki are once again promoting agenda/idea of a centralized strong state that controls every aspect of society that can threaten the regime.

[BeidAmmikon]

I am not sure of what you are implying right now.
Do you think Google Inc overthrew the government of Egypt?
Or do you think that russian Siloviki are once again promoting agenda/idea of a centralized strong state that controls every aspect of society that can threaten the regime.

What's a Siloviki?
I quoted Glenn Beck earlier, who said (approximately) that he'd rather have Google provide accurate search results, than being in the business of overthrowing regimes. Wael, major employee of Google in Egypt, called the people to action indeed. I am not aware of a disclaimer like "Google has nothing to do with it, my individual actions in the real world are not to be linked to my employers", but I've seen him on TV instead, bragging about freedom and civil rights and the like. And I think there must be a grain of truth to what the Russians are saying, they're not, like, stoopid? Beck, too, is usually right
Google has surely "helped keeping people informed" with what Wael wanted:
Revolution 2.0

[mrbadger]

silly question, but why is this thread called the Jasmine revolution?