Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

So it doesn't look like Putin is preparing for peace. Also, Russia is reporting they have lost around 10,500 tanks since the start of the war, that is a lot of tanks it is also being reported that they are only making around 20 or so tanks per month, while their reserves are nearly empty, they should be able to make around 240 tanks per month, but it turns out they just don't have the materials for doping so. At the end of the day, it is starting to look like Russia is the ones who are going to run out of equipment before Ukraine, unless of course the greatest American leader of all time doesn't help his buddy Putin out first. All of this kind of explains why Putin is so desperate to have sanctions lifted.

[fiksal]

that's what Trump sort of agreed to before it seems.

lift sanctions, make Ukraine stop attacking and give Putin breathing room to get all of Ukraine.

Lavrov did say, they agreed on their (Russian) view with Rubio and the rest

here's to hoping Trump's whatever mental illness keeps him unfocused

[mr.WHO]

Another War Archive video, as usual with very high quality maps, animations and footage.

Battle of Southern Ukraine 2022 - Animated Analysis - Part I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEINROKR9VE

Don't know why, but those first weeks of war are super interesting for me, - things unravel and both sides don't really know yet, what they are getting into.

[felter]

The UK has delivered their new Gravehawk short range anti-air system to Ukraine, this is a mobile land system that uses air-to-air missiles to take out missile and drone attacks, from the ground, one of the biggest benefits of it is that it can use basically any type of air-to-air missiles, and it just so happens that Ukraine has plenty of ex-Soviet air-to-air missiles in stock that they couldn't use before, well now they can use them. It is way more cost-effective than using the patriot system as a single patriot costs in the millions, and they only have a limited supply and the patriot is tied to America a non-reliable source for future ammunition, but right now ammunition is not a problem for the Gravehawk and as it can basically use any air-to-air missiles it should be pretty easy to supply more missiles in the future, and it has nothing to do with America. Another main benefits is it can be fitted to many types of vehicles and easily moved around, and the whole system is based on a single unit, and it only requires 5 personal to operate, This is all bad news for Russia as it is everything that the Patriot isn't right now Russia knows where Ukraine's weak spots are but with the Gravehawk those weak spots can be reinforced as soon as they become known.

[Chips]

The UK has delivered their new Gravehawk short range anti-air system to Ukraine, this is a mobile land system that uses air-to-air missiles to take out missile and drone attacks....

I also like the fact it's a standard shipping container; what I mean by that is that it is easy to produce decoy units. You could literally put one real and 10 decoys in an area at minimal cost (a shipping container, which are plentiful, lick of paint, and probably a bit of cut/weld/plastic extras).

[notaterran]

The Gravehawk looks promising! Let's see if it really works, I remember that GLSDB also looked promising before it was deployed to Ukraine.

[felter]

It works, and they know it works as they have been testing in Ukraine since September last year, it's just now it is being expanded.

[notaterran]

If it works then that's good news, Ukraine really needs a cost-effective method of taking care of Russian and Iranian drones. Those Patriot missiles are expensive!

[fiksal]

in other news, this woman was freed via the prison swap, 1.5 yr later
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0l005w2j86o

you may recall she is the American citizen jailed for $50, scheduled for some 12 yrs. It's of course obvious to all but the Trump administration that Russia grabs people to use in these swaps

[clakclak]

Looks like America will not sell Ukraine any more Patriot systems. Ukraine offered to buy $15 billion worth of AA missles (and I complexes to launch them), but the American government does not seem willing to say, with President Trump stating: "Listen, when you start a war, you got to know that you can win the war, right? You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size, and then hope that people give you some missiles."

Source: https://www.twz.com/land/trump-derides- ... se-systems

[alt3rn1ty]

~ Trump stating: "Listen, when you start a war, you got to know that you can win the war, right? You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size, and then hope that people give you some missiles."

What an absolute a-hole. Russia started it.

[fiksal]

once again, when we guessed he is more likely to help kill people in Ukraine, we were 100% spot on.

all that talk to end the war from him, had to be translated, on Russia's terms and Russia's prisons/ camps and mass killings that require it

shocking we were so right

[Observe]

~ Trump stating: "Listen, when you start a war, you got to know that you can win the war, right? You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size, and then hope that people give you some missiles."

What an absolute a-hole. Russia started it.

I agree. Russia started the war.

Sure, there may have been some (imagined?) provocation re. broken Minsk Agreement, NATO and EU aspirations, aggression against Russian-speaking populations, Western meddling in Ukrainian politics, etc. but these are mostly smokescreens for what is in essence an old-fashioned land grab.

We are still faced with how to stop it. Trump doesn't want to further deplete the American arsenal to help someone that he thinks has a losing hand and who he thinks is the guilty party anyway. Other allies cannot carry the burden indefinitely, without compromising their own stock of weapons.

My guess is that Russia is dragging its feet on a peace deal, because they want to see how far they can get with their upcoming Spring offensive. They wish to capture all the land that they lay claim to. These would be the areas that they annexed through Russian laws and "treaties" signed by Putin, with the Russian parliament ratifying them. In Russia's eyes, Ukraine is illegally occupying Ukraine land.

[fiksal]

Trump is on Russia's side. Let's end our discussions on that right here.

I suggest to not try to figure out how he justifies it. It's just fascist propaganda, old and known.

Any future peace is only possible though Europe, that's who really holds the keys to the peace, who can beat the "cards" of the war.

So let's focus on news from Europe

[EGO_Aut]

Trump is on Russia's side. Let's end our discussions on that right here.

I suggest to not try to figure out how he justifies it. It's just fascist propaganda, old and known.

Any future peace is only possible though Europe, that's who really holds the keys to the peace, who can beat the "cards" of the war.

So let's focus on news from Europe

The EU is a disunited bunch, built on the pillars of an economic union, and until now always ruled by a US puppet.
Unfortunately, nothing will change in the next few years. Yes we(EU) will pay a high price, to rebuild the scattered UKR when war is over.

[fiksal]

I get that, but I would like to be optimistic about this.

I hear the right things from European country leaders.

[Chips]

I suggest to not try to figure out how he justifies it. It's just fascist propaganda, old and known.

Think it's along the lines of
1) "Trump likes strong man" (he wants to be one)
2) Russia as amenable is worth far more than Ukraine as "ally"... for US policy anyway. See Greenland, Panama hopes.
3) US wants to focus on China so the Europeans need to stop coasting on US coat tails.

That's probably about it. He recognises the money to be made in rebuilding Ukraine and plundering it's resources. Nothing more. Nothing less. He sees zero value in US involvement otherwise, only costs and divided focus.

As for Europe - if US really is eyeing future conflict with China, then it needs strong NATO in Europe to literally relieve the US from mandatory protection of Europe. The way he's gone about it is absolutely terrible, and is rubbing everyone up the wrong way (after all, most lost troops in Afghanistan/Iraq) -- but simply look at the UK. It apparently has 8 days worth of ammunition (artillery) for any serious conflict. 8 days... it's ridiculous. Most European nations are the same. Germany has had to go all out 80 billion euro reinvestment as their military is *so* bad. We have *all* relied on big daddy USA to be the big brother that stands behind you while you get to mouth off at those you dislike.

The EU militaries combined don't have the logistical capabilities without the US. Even the French asked the UK for help (and our capabilities are laughable) for logistical support previously https://apnews.com/article/42d68f141852 ... e6d6839ca4

The entire NATO-except-USA has comparatively weak intelligence and logistical abilities. Without the US, we may collectively have a quick/hard/fast strike capability - but finding out what we're striking and going beyond the first few months, is just not happening.

Once the fallacy of negotiating a peace between Russia and Ukraine falls by the wayside, I am wondering what they do then. Does USA just ignore it, go back to supplying Ukraine, embargo Russia (more?) or...

It just all seems such a weird time.

Many of the commentators have said the stance has an element of also forcing the European nations to actually be capable of looking after themselves... just Ukraine/Russia has provided a very convenient means to make this a quick reality.

Trump sees 3 nations as superpowers - USA, China and... laughably... Russia. If it wasn't for the insane number of nukes Russia would be jokes. Well, except for it's ability to somehow stifle it's people and send them off to war against their will so they all die.

[fiksal]

I don't disagree on any specific point.

I think Trump's motivation is about as simple as it gets. Make personal wealth, become king for life, deport all non white and those that betray the white supreme race, and yes, become the kind of super power that doesn't have States as neighbors, but instead servants. Example, Greenland, Canada, Panama. To be clear it's not just Trump, MAGA believes in various versions of this.

Trump sees Russia as something to aspire to, not because what it achieves, but how it functions. The fascist ideal.

As someone who functions on regular doses of optimism, I would like to think Europe is now clear on the issues it must solve. First step is recognition.

Hopefully, second step is joining Ukraine, while Ukraine exists. Otherwise it might be a bit too late if it waits for the "after"

[mr.WHO]

Seems like after Russian Navy, now it's Russian Air Force time, to taste the stick - first time ever, when Ukrainian sea drone shoot down jetfighter:
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1918604723684360195

By the time this war ends, Russia will have serious case of drone induced seaphobia

[notaterran]

Good news! I wonder what the Gravehawk is doing, it looked promising.