Coronavirus: COVID-19

[felter]

So I was watching a video and the guy in the video mentioned how lucky we are that it is not the Spanish Flu from 100 years ago, that the Kovid-19 virus is not as bad. This led me to realise that people have a false sense of security, where they seem to think that Spanish Flu was worse because it killed millions of people and that Kovid-19 is not killing nearly that many. They don't seem to realise that if this was 100 years ago, all those people who are surviving would not be surviving, they would all be dead, the only thing keeping them alive today is modern technology and, medicine, along with the isolation and social distancing. It's not over yet, this is only still round one.

[notaterran]

Yes, the 1918 pandemic caused a great number of deaths -possibly surpassing WWII. It's amazing that such a massive catastrophe didn't leave a much larger cultural footprint, I guess because it was concurrent with WWI. I agree that modern medicine is giving people a false sense of security; if this pandemic had been worse even modern health care systems would've been on the brink of collapse.

[Gavrushka]

One thing that always struck me as a little strange, and I may have misunderstood the (UK) Government's message, but it always seemed to be about making sure the health services weren't overwhelmed rather than minimising casualties/fatalities.

Now we're past the peak of infections, the first peak at least, I wonder why we didn't enter lockdown earlier. I can't get my head around the fact we may have ended up with less than 20,000 dead rather than closer to 40,000 by locking down a week sooner. - Hindsight is a delightful stick to shake, but when you miscalculate with something as serious as this, no one can deny me the right to ask the question - Why? - The length of the lockdown was always gonna be longer overall with every day's delay because of the resultant increase in size of the curve, so was it based on deliberately getting a level of infection amongst the population to gain herd immunity in the first instance? Did they then change tack when the data showed deaths well into the 100s of thousands was projected? Or did they feel people wouldn't 'buy' the concept of lockdown any earlier? Thing is, crude maths I know, but a week earlier might have meant an end two weeks sooner, and a lot less death and economic damage.

I ain't gonna blame anyone, as I really don't think it was intent or even incompetence, but I feel it's my right to know why. It's everyone's right. And didn't Italy warn us we were too slow?

[pjknibbs]

You may recall that, back when this all started, the government were talking about "herd immunity" being the way out of the pandemic. It was only when the experts pointed out that would probably leave us with quarter of a million dead (at least) and would completely cripple the NHS that they chose to go with lockdown. So, that may well have been why there was a delay in getting started.

[Gavrushka]

I do remember about imbuing herd immunity in the populace to make it die out 'naturally,' but I also remember, even at that time, other countries saying 'this is not a bad flu, this is killer pneumonia.' - Herd immunity will always imply 'survival of the fittest' on the path to immunity, and I don't remember any early attempts to formally shield the more vulnerable. Again, with hindsight, it seems like a very brutal initial path, especially when we'd already seen what was happening elsewhere. It just now feels like a crisis that was far deeper than it might have otherwise been, and bit the UK worse than in other countries - but maybe that's mitigated by the demographic distribution in the UK.

Whatever the cause, I pray there's full disclosure in due course. - I really, really won't point fingers, because I 100% believe wise people made what they thought were the best decisions at the time, but the implications of those decisions are too profound to do other than scrutinise.

[felter]

Another thing that has to be taken into account with the Spanish Flu, a lot of those that survived the initial infection of the flu died around 5 years later. At the time they had no idea what was killing all those people, it was later attributed to a consequence of surviving the Flu. All those people just turned into ticking time-bombs, they had survived the flu and thought nothing of it but in reality they were already dead.

Now they do not know if there is any kind of long term effect of catching and surviving Covid-19. No one knows what the future holds for the health of those survivors or how the virus is going to act or mutate. A good example is probably the fact they are reporting a high level of blood clots in those who ended up in hospital, now I'm sure there are more than a few doctors wondering if there are going to be a spike in strokes and deaths from a blood clot sometime in the future. But it could easily be something totally different we just don't know.

[CBJ]

The Spanish Flu pandemic also coincided with another pandemic, of Encephalitis Lethargica (sleeping sickness). That pandemic started before the flu one and ran on for several years after. It killed 1.6m people, but because the numbers were eclipsed by the flu deaths it doesn't get mentioned as much.

[felter]

So I looked at the photos and read the new from Yesterday, and I now suspect that in a week or so time there will be a spike in the amount of reported cases of covid-19, and if that does happen that means in around 3 weeks time there will also be a spike in deaths related to covid-19. Bunch of idiots acting like it is all over.

[Vertigo 7]

So I looked at the photos and read the new from Yesterday, and I now suspect that in a week or so time there will be a spike in the amount of reported cases of covid-19, and if that does happen that means in around 3 weeks time there will also be a spike in deaths related to covid-19. Bunch of idiots acting like it is all over.

Indeed. Darwin awards are going to be handed out like Oprah giving away free cars.

[Gavrushka]

I'm seeing the same here. More and more people, including those within households which need shielding, are simply ignoring social distancing. I rate of decline in deaths is gonna slow, or perhaps even reverse. - It's really frustrating because we'd done the hard miles. It's like a Darwinian event, with Nature determined to eradicate muppetry from humankind. Thing is, the muppets will take a lot of innocent people with them.

Unscientific observation: around a quarter of households in my neighbourhood are paying little or no attention to social distancing.

*edit* haha, you beat me to it, Vertigo!

[BrasatoAlBarolo]

So I looked at the photos and read the new from Yesterday, and I now suspect that in a week or so time there will be a spike in the amount of reported cases of covid-19, and if that does happen that means in around 3 weeks time there will also be a spike in deaths related to covid-19. Bunch of idiots acting like it is all over.

You know, I agree, but the problem is not the people going out to have fun after two months and a half of reclusion: they can't be infected now. The problem is the people which, a month or so ago, felt they "had to" go to work. They took the bus / train / underground to go to their factories, offices, and so on. They met a lot of people, they have been put at risk by people who doesn't want to lose a penny or who doesn't get that a lot of jobs could have been done from home.

[CBJ]

You know, I agree, but the problem is not the people going out to have fun after two months and a half of reclusion: they can't be infected now.

Eh? Of course they can be infected now. The virus hasn't magically vanished.

[BrasatoAlBarolo]

You know, I agree, but the problem is not the people going out to have fun after two months and a half of reclusion: they can't be infected now.

Eh? Of course they can be infected now. The virus hasn't magically vanished.

Yes, now they can, but what I was meaning is they are likely not the infected ones now. Poor phrasing.

[Vertigo 7]

In somewhat related news, since the lockdown, air pollutants have seen a major drop globally. Enjoy some 'cleaner' air while it lasts.

[felter]

Look at the picture and tell me is that what we call social distancing and not a face mask to be seen anywhere.

What really annoys me is that I'm stuck at home, I can't even go out for a stroll around the block not just that I have heard a rumour that I may be told I have to do this for at least a year, certainly until it is deemed safe for me to leave my house and these A-HOLES head of to the friggin beach to mingle and spread the virus amongst themselves, making sure it is a year before I can go out and play. I'm just really pissed off and you know who I blame, it's that idiot Johnson and his cronies, it all falls squarely at their feet, it's all their doing as they are just making a mess of things again.

[pjknibbs]

It's a bank holiday weekend, it'll probably be worse then! Idiots all.

[Rug]

But compare the headline photo (looking along the beach) with the overhead one from the police drone...

The police photo does show spacing, which is impossible to tell from the beach level one.

Also, please bear in mind that it is much less likely that you will be exposed to a sufficient degree outside from airborne transmission. If all these people are pushing open the same gate to get to the beach, or sharing handrails on stairs, that would be an issue. As earlier observed, it is on public transport and in the offices that much of the problem lies. Not out in the fresh (and cleanish) air.

Rug

[TSM]

Look at the picture and tell me is that what we call social distancing and not a face mask to be seen anywhere.

What really annoys me is that I'm stuck at home, I can't even go out for a stroll around the block not just that I have heard a rumour that I may be told I have to do this for at least a year, certainly until it is deemed safe for me to leave my house and these A-HOLES head of to the friggin beach to mingle and spread the virus amongst themselves, making sure it is a year before I can go out and play. I'm just really pissed off and you know who I blame, it's that idiot Johnson and his cronies, it all falls squarely at their feet, it's all their doing as they are just making a mess of things again.

Totally agree to many people taking the wee wee on this and they are in most cases also the ones clapping for the NHS, its a race to see what will kill the most stupidity or corvid.

[CBJ]

Look at the picture and tell me is that what we call social distancing and not a face mask to be seen anywhere.

I totally agree that some people are being very silly at the moment, but just to reiterate what Rug said, the press is doing its usual job of sensationalising things here. Take a look at this comparison. Yes, different country, different situation, but it's the same trick of using perspective and a long lens to exaggerate the situation. I'm disappointed that the BBC has used this technique in one of their articles, because they are usually a bit better than most news sources about giving more balanced reports.

[Masterbagger]

I dropped by a walmart this week to replace a rug and get a chicken for lunch during work hours so early afternoon time frame. No crowds. A month ago the stores were packed during the work day from day shoppers who weren't going to their jobs. Not the case now. I also had a cancellation a different day so I had time for a nice lunch. It was good to sit down and eat something hearty inside a restaurant. The roads are busy and rush hour is a thing again. The police are out in force conducting traffic stops for revenue purposes now that they aren't afraid to accost motorists. People who are obviously out of practice driving are on the roads. We have a major holiday coming Monday and we are not even considering putting the celebrations on hold. What I see is normalcy creeping back into our lives. It's not over yet when there will be appeals to hysteria to keep the shutdowns going, wringing of hands, gnashing of teeth and emotional arguments. It's a good start though.