Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

The storm shadow missiles do use GPS, but they are not 100% reliant on it, so I would imagine that if you took out the GPS it would just use one of the other methods of navigation instead.

[Observe]

The storm shadow missiles do use GPS, but they are not 100% reliant on it, so I would imagine that if you took out the GPS it would just use one of the other methods of navigation instead.

Also, I believe they use heat-seeking for the final approach anyway and they have radar terrain mapping as a backup for GPS unless I'm mistaken.

[chew-ie]

Process of Bakhmut liberation - or tatical retreat as Russia's defense ministry is calling it - is quite impressive so far... After months of nibbling west at the cost of thousands of their soldiers lives Russia now officially changed course. Literally.

@source theguardian.com Russian troops fall back to ‘defensive positions’ near Bakhmut

[mr.WHO]

Goodwill gestures incoming

[felter]

It's not good news for Russia, as it looks like the Ukrainians are trying to encircle Bakhmut and if they manage that, that means the Wagner group is royally screwed as they will be stuck in Bakhmut with no more incoming supplies and no way to retreat.

There was something I never thought about the storm shadow missiles, they put the Russia Black Sea fleet as a potential target as one of those missiles would be able to sink any one of those ships and the fleet is well within their range, something tells me the Russia are going to be more than a little bit worried about them.

[Alan Phipps]

Re Storm Shadow and the Russian fleet, it perhaps depends whether the target chosen was considered to meet the UK limitation for their use to 'targets within Ukraine territory'. I'd leave that question to the politicians.

[Falcrack]

There is evidence that Ukraine was supplied with ADM-160, which are essentially decoys designed to soak up anti-aircraft fire, tricking the enemy into thinking they are inbound aircraft or cruise missiles. They are the perfect complement to the Storm Shadow, as use of these decoys during an attack would confuse and distract air defence enough to allow the real cruise missiles to get through.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/e ... ne-emerges

[felter]

I'm not saying they should do it or will do it, I'm saying the potential is there, and the Russians also have to be aware of that potential and just like us, the Russians have no idea what restrictions the UK put on the use of those missiles. So all they can do is worry if their fleet is a valid target or not, while also knowing that those missiles are perfect for attacking and destroying any of their ships while they are moored in Crimea. It has to be a fear to the Russians, not knowing one way or the other.

[mr.WHO]

According to Russians, Storm Shadows striked at Luhanks already - this could be as well just their paranoia and in coming days every strike will be Storm Shadow to amounts greated than all know production stockpile

[chew-ie]

That was quick - yielding to the paranoia that is. Judging by the last few days alone Ukraine is in for some payback after months off holding their ground, so all in all it's a healthy reaction by Russia =) Let's hope they keep on withdrawing and sparing their men further deaths.

[felter]

I do think Russia is royally screwed in Ukraine, right now they have lost 10s of thousands of troops and just as much equipment in trying to take Bakhmut these past months, and now they are losing ground on a daily basis and if they are not careful they will lose the Wagner group in the process.

With these new missiles from the UK, there is no hiding place left for them as they are now in reach of a missile that they cannot defend against.

It's also being reported in Russia that they lost another 2 commanders over the weekend in Ukraine.

To top it all off they also lost a SU34, Su35 and 2 Mil Mi-8 helicopters over the weekend, and they were all taken out 50 miles inside Russian airspace, which means Ukraine now has the capability to do some serious damage to what's left of the Russian air force and do it from a distance.

Then you also have to take into account that the attack on the Kremlin last week and also a lot of the attacks inside Russia have nothing to do with Ukraine, but it is looking like it is Russians partisans that are behind those attacks.

And Ukraine has not even begun their counter-offensive.

The future does not look too good for Putin, I don't think he will last out the rest of the year.

[mr.WHO]

And Ukraine has not even begun their counter-offensive.

Most commentators I watch, say that current Bakhmut counterattack is a shaping operation, similar to Cherson front, before sudden Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Remember that Cherson was crawling counteroffensive for weeks, before Kharkiv counteroffensive kicked in.

Don't get me wrong - if shaping fail and Russia will not make an opening, the likelyhood of proper launch of counteroffensive is low.
I wouldn't even be suprised, if they decide to wait till Fall to get even more equipment Zelensky ask recently in Germany/France/UK.

[felter]

I honestly cannot figure out what Russian tactics are and what it is exactly they are trying to achieve. They are getting their assess kicked on the front line, losing 10s of thousands on a target with no tactical advantage, wasting ammunition by attacking civilian targets with rockets, missiles and drones while their troops are desperate for more ammunition on the front line. None of it makes any sense at all, it's like they want to kill their own troops and fail all at the same time.

[fiksal]

I can't answer this question. To my knowledge Kremlin didn't present a coherent strategy.

I think the old wishful thinking still applies by default, that US will get bored, that Europe will freeze in winter, and Ukraine will eventually lose critical number of people.

[Gavrushka]

And just to add: - Dictators (Putin) tend to take their own counsel rather than that of military commanders, and thus it's often their own tactics they employ on the battlefield rather than sound military logic. - Plus Putin (like Stalin) seems not to value the lives of his own troops.

[mr.WHO]

None of it makes any sense at all, it's like they want to kill their own troops and fail all at the same time.

It makes all the sense, if you're Dear Leader for Life.
He didn't managed to delived successful 3-day operation, so now he need to dispose everybody who can make him accountable for the failure.
Military was always first on the purge list since the dawn of Tzar era.

It's illogical to us Westerners, but for Russia, this it quite consistent and long tradition.

[fiksal]

What does a mad man who is taking Russia happily into fascism thinks? Good question.

It seems plausible that current Kremlin had inhereted systems from the Soviet era, one being, the Leader has all his info delivered to him by special people. Whose job is to deliver good news. Often those would be completely made up. (I can try to dig up articles on that if you are interested)

We also by now know that Putin isolated himself from all media. He doesnt use internet at all, and probably doesnt watch TV. Maybe even doesnt watch state TV. (stuff like this)

He employs body doubles (like the one that visited Ukraine at night), has secret office locations.

Then he also surrounded on purpose by all people who in his eyes are absolutely loyal to him, and by not coincidence also mostly pretty dumb group of bandits. Because loyalty counts for more.

There you, that's the captain and the group that steers the slave ship.

None of it makes any sense at all, it's like they want to kill their own troops and fail all at the same time.

It makes all the sense, if you're Dear Leader for Life.
He didn't managed to delived successful 3-day operation, so now he need to dispose everybody who can make him accountable for the failure.
Military was always first on the purge list since the dawn of Tzar era.

It's illogical to us Westerners, but for Russia, this it quite consistent and long tradition.

It's hard for me to distinguish malice from stupidity sometimes. For sure he wouldnt want military to over throw him, but what is he doing to prevent that? Putting them to front lines, a murder and a window accident here and there?

[mr.WHO]

It's hard for me to distinguish malice from stupidity sometimes. For sure he wouldnt want military to over throw him, but what is he doing to prevent that? Putting them to front lines, a murder and a window accident here and there?

Pitching generals against eachother, pitching army against Wagner, Wagner againt other PMC (like Gazprom now has 4 PMC), Chechen against everyone.

It's Dictators' balance of power 101 - Putin was doing this as soon as he realized he failed 3-day operation. With each failure he crank up the competition spiral.
You can have general droped from the window, but you can't have whole army dropped from the window.
Still, you can drop the whole army into Bahmut for meatgrinding.

[felter]

Russia is so funny, they are like the worst football team ever that have scored their first goal in five years and celebrate it like they have just won the world cup. Russia throws $20 million dollars of Missiles and drones at Ukraine's missile defence system and managed to damage one of them, and now they're all YES we managed to hit a patriot, we've won the war. Sad, so, so sad but funny nonetheless.

[fiksal]

It's hard for me to distinguish malice from stupidity sometimes. For sure he wouldnt want military to over throw him, but what is he doing to prevent that? Putting them to front lines, a murder and a window accident here and there?

Pitching generals against eachother, pitching army against Wagner, Wagner againt other PMC (like Gazprom now has 4 PMC), Chechen against everyone.

It's Dictators' balance of power 101 - Putin was doing this as soon as he realized he failed 3-day operation. With each failure he crank up the competition spiral.
You can have general droped from the window, but you can't have whole army dropped from the window.
Still, you can drop the whole army into Bahmut for meatgrinding.

Cant wait to see the conclusion of that chapter