Russia-Ukraine War

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 14:42

.......Gorbachev was probably too trusting of the double game of western politicians and relied on the promises. At a meeting with Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, US Secretary of State James Baker promised that NATO would expand "not an inch further east". The well-known statement was "part of a cascade of assurances" made to Gorbachev and other officials in the Soviet government.........

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.heise. ... 18651.html

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 15:26

When lightbulbs burn out in Russia, do you keep them around and yell at them for not working any more or do you replace them? I'm just wondering cuz the Soviet Union hasn't been around for decades and I fail to see why anyone should care what agreements were made with a country that doesn't exist.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Warenwolf » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 15:39

DanKara wrote:
Tue, 18. Jan 22, 10:34
Well, if you read Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, signed by Russia and NATO in 1997 it clearly states (outline done by me):

respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security, the inviolability of borders and peoples' right of self-determination as enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE documents;
Source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/of ... _25468.htm

So all these claims Putin has directed towards the West is more for local consumption in Russia.
Point being is that in 1990, Soviet and Warsaw Pact still existed. Communists ruled in most of EE. Year later world changed.

What Baker meant with "not an inch further east" is also not as clear cut as Putin cheer leading crowd claims.

This is from an interview with Gorbachev:
RBTH: One of the key issues that has arisen in connection with the events in Ukraine is NATO expansion into the East. Do you get the feeling that your Western partners lied to you when they were developing their future plans in Eastern Europe? Why didn’t you insist that the promises made to you – particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that NATO would not expand into the East – be legally encoded? I will quote Baker: “NATO will not move one inch further east.”

M.G.: The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a singe Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and [German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich] Genscher talked about it.
Source: https://www.rbth.com/international/2014 ... 40673.html

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by DanKara » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 16:55

Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 18. Jan 22, 15:39
DanKara wrote:
Tue, 18. Jan 22, 10:34
Well, if you read ...
There seems to be no dissence between us. As you will see, if you let your browser translate that german article I cited.
I was merely interested to share, what my former misconception was based on, as that was what the poster named 'clakclak' asked for back in december'21.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 19:50

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Tue, 18. Jan 22, 15:26
When lightbulbs burn out in Russia, do you keep them around and yell at them for not working any more or do you replace them? I'm just wondering cuz the Soviet Union hasn't been around for decades and I fail to see why anyone should care what agreements were made with a country that doesn't exist.
And because of this dominance behavior, there is a diplomatic problem. And that really bothers me that NATO/US is so brain dead. US/UK press is washing the minds of their citizens, provoking a conflict for money.

The victims will be those in the conflict regions and mainly Europe (EU). Because they are dependent on RU Gas, and because of the USA NordSteam2 was not completed either. I'm very surprised that Putin hasn't turned off the gas yet, he could now freeze UKR and EU in winter!

I wouldn't be surprised if China takes advantage of the situation in the China Sea should there be NATO assistance in the UKR.
What do you think will happen if RU can persuade some Communist American countries to provide bases/ports to RU and deploy missiles there, or practice maneuvers on the west coast?

Best compromise would be not to expand NATO, and look for a goog relationship with RU. In UKR is civil war, they have to fight for themself-no need to make a new Vietnam, Syria, Irak aso.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Warenwolf » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 21:10

EGO_Aut wrote:
Tue, 18. Jan 22, 19:50


And because of this dominance behavior, there is a diplomatic problem. And that really bothers me that NATO/US is so brain dead. US/UK press is washing the minds of their citizens, provoking a conflict for money.

The victims will be those in the conflict regions and mainly Europe (EU). Because they are dependent on RU Gas, and because of the USA NordSteam2 was not completed either. I'm very surprised that Putin hasn't turned off the gas yet, he could now freeze UKR and EU in winter!
Infantile logic. If Putin turns off the gas (and I would love if he finally snapped and threatened with that - that would shake up political landscape in Europe - unfortunately he is too smart to do that kind of mistake) he basically would kill off his 37% of his export income. How long would those valuta reserves last when EU really gets pissed off and instead of sanctions implements embargo (no transport of goods to and from Russia)? Europe exports to Russia are under 5% of its totals. Do some math.
West is feeble, politically divided and led by weak leaders - but wage economical war against it and your nationalism will get expensive very quickly as so many countries found out when starting a pi****ing contest with the West.

sources : https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... statistics

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 21:25

And Russia, not the Soviet Union, RUSSIA, agreeing, in writing, to respect the sovereignty of the former soviet states (which includes their freedom to make alliances of their own accord), that doesn't matter at all because of some half-baked nod and a handshake with the Soviet Union years prior? And now here you sit, threatening to hold a good chunk of Europe hostage while still pretending Russia is somehow in the right... please dude.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 22:39

.....a good chunk of europe hostage :? :lol:

Btw.
EU and US has fewer customers than India and China (+2 billion people) which are allied with RU. Of course, RU wants to sell its gas to the EU at a nice price, but why do we in the EU have to support Ukraine? Oh yes, because the USA/GB wants to and could get rid of their fraking gas, but it's not enough.

In Venezuela, N-Korea,..... so many evil countries, every year another one, and now, according to Reuters, RU is the evil one, finally wake up - much ado about nothing. The main thing is that US/GB can sell arms to Ukraine, paid for by the EU.

That's all the fuss is about, because everyone's pants are full when the red button is pressed. Putin will get eastern Ukraine if he wants...and China Taiwan if it escalates conventionally around the world.

What Putin wants:
No admission of ex-Soviet republics to NATO, the massive reduction in military manouvers in the countries bordering Russia and no stationing of short- and medium-range missiles in Europe :gruebel: why not?

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Cpt.Jericho » Tue, 18. Jan 22, 23:26

EGO_Aut wrote:
Tue, 18. Jan 22, 22:39
What Putin wants:
No admission of ex-Soviet republics to NATO, the massive reduction in military manouvers in the countries bordering Russia and no stationing of short- and medium-range missiles in Europe :gruebel: why not?
I wonder how the US would react if Russia wanted to station missles on Cuba? :gruebel: :roll:
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Wed, 19. Jan 22, 00:12

Well, Russia can collectively want in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first. Europe doesn't need Putin's permission to do a damn thing. And you call us 'brain washed'... :lol:
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Teladi CEO » Wed, 19. Jan 22, 03:16

Perhaps I am not the most well informed individual here but Russia’s demands violate the very foundations of NATO and Europe structure.

How is Russia allowed to make demands on where independent nations can and cannot station their troops? Especially if your arguing it’s for the defense of Russia, then NATO is deploying their troops for the same reason, to defend itself. If Ukraine wants troops in Ukraine it is it’s decision, Russia can argue against it all it want but Ukraine is in a civil war, just like Syria where Russia deployed troops. I wonder if Turkey felt threatened by that. Your argument is completely unfounded, yes the US is a major aggressor but last I checked it amassing it’s army at a foreign nations borders. Plus, why can Russia have missiles within striking range of Europe, but NATO cannot?

Furthermore, I am curious as to why Russia would think NATO has any ambition of “waging war” with Russia. Everyone knows that waging a ground war is essentially suicide. Every nation that borders Russia has mandatory conscription, I wonder why because Russia is breathing down their necks twenty-four/seven.

Finally, don’t twist my reasoning into propaganda or anti-Russian rhetoric. Everyone here is raising a point and we don’t get anywhere if we point the finger. Either way, the people suffer the most, whether they are Ukrainian, Russian or whoever. The focus should be on them and not he said/she said games.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Cpt.Jericho » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 00:02

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Wed, 19. Jan 22, 00:12
Well, Russia can collectively want in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first. Europe doesn't need Putin's permission to do a damn thing. And you call us 'brain washed'... :lol:
Well, you're correct: Europe doesn't have to do what Putin wants. But Europe certainly has to bend over every time the US are feeling an itch. And remembering the last three decades first hand Europe was eager to comply; be it in former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iraq again and bailing Afghanistan with the tail between the legs (as the Russian did decades earlier). And the best part of it: The each of those interventions left Europe with a solid stream of displaced people and tons of other problem the US didn't have to deal with. People consider the EU being an impotent structure. Yeah, that's because it's us cleaning up the mess the US causes in the world.
Can't remember Russians causing big waves of immigration to destabilising Europe. Why is that, actually? Oh, yes, they didn't invade other countries and make people to leave their homes because they were bombed out.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Olterin » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 01:10

Cpt.Jericho wrote:
Thu, 20. Jan 22, 00:02
[...]
Can't remember Russians causing big waves of immigration to destabilising Europe. Why is that, actually? Oh, yes, they didn't invade other countries and make people to leave their homes because they were bombed out.
What, the Syrian refugees suddenly don't count? Pretty sure those were caused by Russian troops on foreign soil, in no small part.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 03:56

Cpt.Jericho wrote:
Thu, 20. Jan 22, 00:02
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Wed, 19. Jan 22, 00:12
Well, Russia can collectively want in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first. Europe doesn't need Putin's permission to do a damn thing. And you call us 'brain washed'... :lol:
Well, you're correct: Europe doesn't have to do what Putin wants. But Europe certainly has to bend over every time the US are feeling an itch. And remembering the last three decades first hand Europe was eager to comply; be it in former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iraq again and bailing Afghanistan with the tail between the legs (as the Russian did decades earlier). And the best part of it: The each of those interventions left Europe with a solid stream of displaced people and tons of other problem the US didn't have to deal with. People consider the EU being an impotent structure. Yeah, that's because it's us cleaning up the mess the US causes in the world.
Can't remember Russians causing big waves of immigration to destabilising Europe. Why is that, actually? Oh, yes, they didn't invade other countries and make people to leave their homes because they were bombed out.
So.... by your already explicitly expressed logic, because the US made a mess somewhere, it's okay for Russia to start a war with another country? That's your justification? ffs...

Seriously, what I hear you saying is countries in Europe are weak, so it's natural for Russia to attack. If that's how things work then Patton was right and after allied forces were done with Nazi Germany, they should have turned north and hit the SU.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Santi » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 05:08

This issue baffles me, I cannot think of any grand reason, either economical or political, where Russia has to gamble so much for so little.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 08:50

Santi wrote:
Thu, 20. Jan 22, 05:08
This issue baffles me, I cannot think of any grand reason, either economical or political, where Russia has to gamble so much for so little.
Unfortunately it really counts much militarly, politically and economically for Russia:
- plugs the buffer zone gap between Russia proper & NATO (you could say the Baltics would be the last gap and obvious next target).
- Ukraine soil is most fertile in Europe - Russia proper is still not self-sufficient with food production.
- Ukraine (especially eastern parts) industry is useless on it's own, but still complementary with Russian industry.
- Ukraine has a lot of russian speaking population (potential new russian, willing or not) which is very important resource. Russia is bleeding out population (due to negative growth and emigration).


It might looks like stupid move from Western perspective, but it makes a lot of sence from Russian perspective..

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Teladi CEO » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 14:31

Can't remember Russians causing big waves of immigration to destabilising Europe. Why is that, actually? Oh, yes, they didn't invade other countries and make people to leave their homes because they were bombed out.
I know of four separate wars Russia had fought within Europe since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Chechen
Georgia
Ukraine
Tranistria

All of these wars absolutely devastated Russia’s neighbors and yes, caused refugees and destabilization in Europe. This conversation also isn’t about the US, it’s about stopping Russia from making the same actions as the US, which no one in the world needs. And no one in the world needs the US to be doing it either. If you wanna talk about US foreign policy my guess, but this is about Russia. If your defending Russia by stating they are only doing what the US has done, then Russia is violating all of its own diplomatic complaints and issues its raised about US interventions and wars.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by notaterran » Thu, 20. Jan 22, 20:31

Perhaps Putin has problems at home and a war with Ukraine would serve as a nice distraction for the masses?
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Chips » Fri, 21. Jan 22, 18:00

Most of the pro Russia arguments don't stack up.

Nato has been on Russia's border for 18 years - just look at the damned map :gruebel:

Ukraine applied to join in 2008, but it was suspended in 2010 and then shelved by Yano guy. The interim gov allegedly kept the neutrality, and it was only after Russian involvement with Crimea that the Ukraine pivoted again to joining NATO. Quelle surprise that occurred huh. I bet Putin never saw that coming.

To be honest, with Putin's drive to modernise the armed forces two decades ago; the provocation in Ukraine when it wasn't joining NATO... can't help but wonder if this hasn't been planned in the very very long term and steps taken to engineer this scenario. Who'd have imaged that breaking off chunks of the Ukraine would cause them to look to join military alliances -- something so dangerous and intolerable you'd have to invade them in response to.

You'd have to be a psychic to see that one surely (maybe too much sarcasm? :D).

Whataboutery over "Well, USA bad so Russia should be bad" is schoolyard stuff - two wrongs don't make a right should be the stock answer; however, "People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones..." is a perfectly viable comeback. Neither of these
justify any incursion by Russia into Ukraine, period.

As for putting missiles in Cuba etc - get on with it, who cares. Europe has lived under "next door nuclear missiles" for 50+ years; Russia and USA are a pair of snowflakes.

NATO is the excuse, the smokescreen, the "but.. but... reasons!". The reason this is happening is Putin. End of.

I mean, if Ukraine did join NATO, what precisely do you think is suddenly going to happen? Whatever, lets just hope this all leads to nothing more than troop repositioning and a cooldown.

For those who support the Russian point of view you may enjoy Simon Jenkins article in the Guardian about this. For those who don't support that perspective, you may find it disturbing. Either way, worth a read (and the comments as for why it is so disturbing as plenty point out history, and also just how bad his opinion is :D ). It also contains links to other articles, which address/cover the falsity of the "promise not to expand to the East" as being part of any treaty. It wasn't.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... er-dispute

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 21. Jan 22, 18:20

Chips wrote:
Fri, 21. Jan 22, 18:00
Most of the pro Russia arguments don't stack up.

Nato has been on Russia's border for 18 years - just look at the damned map :gruebel:
Exactly!
If we accept Russian excuses, then basically we sanction Russia doing the same to Baltic states (doesn't matter that they are EU/NATO members) in a few years in future.

It's the same distance from Riga to Moscow as it is from Kiev.

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