Afghanistan

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Santi
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Afghanistan

Post by Santi » Tue, 17. Aug 21, 22:43

20 years in Afghanistan, do you think that changes in Afghan society in that time, will influence Taliban policies now that they are in power?
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Tue, 17. Aug 21, 22:52

doubt it. group of em already waltzed into a bank and kicked all the women out and told them male relatives could replace them. It's only a matter of time before these kinds of interactions go into the beating/raping/beheading territory.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Santi » Tue, 17. Aug 21, 23:42

I don't think the Taliban have not learn any lessons.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 02:29

To clarify you there, and not intended as snarky, do you mean they haven't learned any lessons or they have? Can't tell if the double negative use was intentional or not.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by matthewfarmery » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 09:30

The Taliban are marking on people's doors of those that have helped western governments. So they live in terror on what the Taliban will do to them. This is a mess that should have been foreseen. So they will go back to their old ways and been as ruthless and dangerous as before. The USA, especailly Trump and Mike Pompeo, did a lot of damage, but cutting out the afghan government, and to get 5,000 Taliban prisoners released. (most if not all are part of the group that is retaking Afghanistan by force. While some are now part of the new government that the Taliban wants to make.

I think this was a very grave error, and a grave error by saying to the Taliban earlier on that Afghanistan is yours. And this is what in effect Trump did last year. As he did start the ball rolling. Biden pulled troops out of that place too soon, and with so little thought. So basically, this war is a humiliation defeat. Another Vietnam. And this also put a lot of questions on USA foreign policy and how committed they will be to fight now in other areas and how well USA can be trusted to do the job right. But yes, its not really the troops fault, but those that do the decision making. They are the ones who should be blamed.

I think at some point, we will have to go back there, but in truth, we should never have gone there in the first place. It is a country that can never be fully taken over by another. And USA and UK troops are good at fighting one type of enemy, but the Taliban are quite another. But I do see us having to go back there. Even if Biden might not be willing, something may happen to change his mind. And we will be stuck in that country for a long time, without an end to sight.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Alan Phipps » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 09:41

I think that just the fact that the Taliban are apparently at least saying the right things shows that the modernisation of a large fraction of the Afghan population over the last 20 years cannot be undone overnight, and they realise it. Controlling elements of the population solely by fear and force of arms will just lead to resistance or civil war and even the Taliban do not really want more of that at this stage.

I think the immediate problem is the Taliban itself is not a cohesive and homogenous group and, because of their lack of internal mechanisms and controls for peacetime rule and governing, there will be local leaders/rulers/clerics who do not comply with the party line from the Taliban 'leadership' or 'government' (whatever compromise those end up as). Hence there will indeed be horror stories reported as local groups do their own thing regardless.

The proof of the real situation there will come with time and be influenced by the more powerfull external players in the region - which currently will not so much include the Western democracies.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by matthewfarmery » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 10:44

From what I am hearing on the radio, is a large amount of the population running / fleeing in fear. The UK government is saying we will take 20,000 people in, 5,000 this year, followed by another 5,000 next year. But where they are getting that from (the numbers I don't know) So there are a lot of people who don't want to stay in that country anymore, especially those that helped western countries. I doubt there will be a civil war, not unless another group challenges the Taliban. The thing with the country is, people there don't swear allegiance to the country, but to the tribe they belong too. So Afghanistan is a tribal country. Even the afghan government will little, simply because it was rotten to the core to start with. yet nothing was really done by western countries to change that.

So we have a mess that is happening now. Unless western powers go back, I see the whole of Afghanistan been taken over by the Taliban real soon. And then, who knows what will happen next, what plans they will make up for revenge. I'm, sure that will be on their minds at some point.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Santi » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 11:02

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Wed, 18. Aug 21, 02:29
To clarify you there, and not intended as snarky, do you mean they haven't learned any lessons or they have? Can't tell if the double negative use was intentional or not.
Apologies, English is not my first language, in my post I mean to say that they had learned lessons. Of course we are talking about people that think, or thought, still to be seem, that stoning people to death is a good idea.

Considering that while many Afghans share their ideas against western values, Afghanistan is a very traditional country, the make up of current Afghan society is much different to what it was 20 years ago, only in cities, rural Afghanistan has barely changed.

I think Taliban leadership is aware of that and the civil strife that reverting to their super strict system will cause. I agree with Alan that horror stories will happen and he raises a very interesting point about the external influence especially that of China and Pakistan.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 15:38

I disagree on a couple of points.

Afghanistan should be allowed to self-rule. They're not a territory of any other nation and western powers shouldn't be the ones deciding their fate just cuz we have the bigger sticks. Lets not forget, the whole reason the US was there in the first place was to overthrow the Taliban to prevent al-Qaeda from being able to hide in the country so we could get Bin Laden, all in response to the 9/11/2001 attacks on the WTC and Pentagon. Like em or not, the Taliban did rule Afghanistan prior to the occupation.

As far as I'm concerned, the US met its original objectives. We should have left a loooonng time ago. It's not incumbent on the US to determine how other nations function, nor should it be. If Afghanistan wants something other than the Taliban, well... after years of not having them and then within 2 weeks having them back in complete control, doesn't look like they wanted something else that badly to me. If some other nation wants something else there, and they wanna commit military forces to impose it, that'll be between them and Afghanistan.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 16:19

The decision was good (made by Trump, Biden just finishing it), but the execution was terrible, especially from PR point of view.

It's like entire US leadership expected Afghan Army to hold for at least several months and it took them by suprise, pants down, that they fell so quick.

As much as I would love to blame Biden, it think the entire fault is on US generals, who probably knew all of this, but served president bull reports of how great training and equiped ANA is.
The dude was on literal vacation when the shit hit the fan, like expecting nothing to happen in upcoming week at all.

I read an article that only just recently US sent B-52s to burn down some ANA airfield, that got into Taliban hands with a lot of planes and heli.
Not to mention huge number of weapons, vechicles and drones that weren't scuttle or destroyed on a retreat - now Taliban parade with them.

The whole thing looks awfully too similar to early rise of ISIS.
It's like make mistake once, it's a bad luck, but making the same mistake twice seems like criminal sabotage.
I'd expect US forces to at least have the contingency for equipment destruction since ISIS.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by pjknibbs » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 17:05

I don't imagine those reports about the training or equipment of the ANA were fake at all. What was missing was the will to fight--doesn't matter if you have the best equipment in the world if you don't want to fight and potentially die with it.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 17:21

pjknibbs wrote:
Wed, 18. Aug 21, 17:05
I don't imagine those reports about the training or equipment of the ANA were fake at all. What was missing was the will to fight--doesn't matter if you have the best equipment in the world if you don't want to fight and potentially die with it.
Aparently regular ANA units had yearly attrition of 30% due to combat losses and desertion.
Another 30% (and there was record unit with 70%) was "ghost", they exist on paper only and all the cash for payment and equipment went to the pockets of corrupted officials.

Try to have a competent team at work where 90% of people is gone by the year 3 and 30% of needed personel doesn't even exist.

I smell huge amount of bull - wanna bet that Biden read the same report that Trump read when decided to leave?
"All fine and dandy, ANA is numerous, well trained an equiped and have numerical superiority over Taliban".


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Re: Afghanistan

Post by matthewfarmery » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 19:12

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Wed, 18. Aug 21, 15:38
I disagree on a couple of points.

Afghanistan should be allowed to self-rule. They're not a territory of any other nation and western powers shouldn't be the ones deciding their fate just cuz we have the bigger sticks. Lets not forget, the whole reason the US was there in the first place was to overthrow the Taliban to prevent al-Qaeda from being able to hide in the country so we could get Bin Laden, all in response to the 9/11/2001 attacks on the WTC and Pentagon. Like em or not, the Taliban did rule Afghanistan prior to the occupation.

As far as I'm concerned, the US met its original objectives. We should have left a loooonng time ago. It's not incumbent on the US to determine how other nations function, nor should it be. If Afghanistan wants something other than the Taliban, well... after years of not having them and then within 2 weeks having them back in complete control, doesn't look like they wanted something else that badly to me. If some other nation wants something else there, and they wanna commit military forces to impose it, that'll be between them and Afghanistan.
The problem is, the afghan government were corrupt, so the western powers should have done more to deal with that. And lets not forgot, Trump cut out the afghan government when it come to peace talks. Trump talked to a Taliban people, and allowed 5,000 Talibans free, behind the back of the afghan government. So its easy too say, that the country should be self ruled. But by who? the afghan government that was cut out of all negotiations? or the Taliban?


Both the USA and the UK are to blame for this mess, But I would point the finger squarely at Trump first. He did the damage, because he had zero clue what he was doing, and others in his government played along with it.

And now the country is a total shambles as a result. If the country was to be self ruled, then the western powers should have done way more, and included the afghan government in EVERYTHING!!!! But like I said, they got cut out of things, and the rest is history.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 19:51

matthewfarmery wrote:
Wed, 18. Aug 21, 19:12
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Wed, 18. Aug 21, 15:38
I disagree on a couple of points.

Afghanistan should be allowed to self-rule. They're not a territory of any other nation and western powers shouldn't be the ones deciding their fate just cuz we have the bigger sticks. Lets not forget, the whole reason the US was there in the first place was to overthrow the Taliban to prevent al-Qaeda from being able to hide in the country so we could get Bin Laden, all in response to the 9/11/2001 attacks on the WTC and Pentagon. Like em or not, the Taliban did rule Afghanistan prior to the occupation.

As far as I'm concerned, the US met its original objectives. We should have left a loooonng time ago. It's not incumbent on the US to determine how other nations function, nor should it be. If Afghanistan wants something other than the Taliban, well... after years of not having them and then within 2 weeks having them back in complete control, doesn't look like they wanted something else that badly to me. If some other nation wants something else there, and they wanna commit military forces to impose it, that'll be between them and Afghanistan.
The problem is, the afghan government were corrupt, so the western powers should have done more to deal with that. And lets not forgot, Trump cut out the afghan government when it come to peace talks. Trump talked to a Taliban people, and allowed 5,000 Talibans free, behind the back of the afghan government. So its easy too say, that the country should be self ruled. But by who? the afghan government that was cut out of all negotiations? or the Taliban?


Both the USA and the UK are to blame for this mess, But I would point the finger squarely at Trump first. He did the damage, because he had zero clue what he was doing, and others in his government played along with it.

And now the country is a total shambles as a result. If the country was to be self ruled, then the western powers should have done way more, and included the afghan government in EVERYTHING!!!! But like I said, they got cut out of things, and the rest is history.
Even if the Afghan government was corrupt, that doesn't entitle the US to dictate policy for that country. We were there in pursuit of terrorists. Well, we got them, the US and her interests are secure from that threat. At some point the people of Afghanistan, be it the Taliban or not, will have to take charge of their country and decide its future. It was a mess before we got there and if we left last week or 10 years from now, it'll still be a mess. There's only so much hand holding that can be done and they're gonna have to stand on their own and decide for themselves if they're going to be part of the international community or not.

What I don't agree with, however, is leaving our allies on the ground behind. I know the Biden administration is trying to get many of them over here, or at least, they say they are, but there's many Afghan nationals that helped us out tremendously and are in increasing danger every day they're left there to fend for themselves.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by matthewfarmery » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 20:18

I dont think it is a good idea to allow the Taliban to take over the country. And that is what has happened, and with a lot of help from a very corrupt man who was in power.

all the wrong signals were sent out last year, that too is also the problem. but regardless of when we will pull out, I had a feeling the country will tear itself apart. But I for one, don't think the Taliban should be in charge. Otherwise, the reasons for going in the first place will simply repeat. And I have a fear that will happen. We couldn't control the country the first time, and it won't happen again. But yes, we made a lot of mistakes, both the UK and US government. And this mistake will haunt us for a very long time.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Observe » Wed, 18. Aug 21, 20:23

There seems to be plenty of Afghans who back the Taliban and no doubt there are plenty who don't. Either way, it is for them to determine their future without foreign interests dictating their path. Creating colonial puppet governments in an attempt to replicate our values on others, never works out very well in the long-run. It shouldn't have taken us 20 years to execute whatever dubiously valid mission we may have had in the beginning.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by clakclak » Fri, 20. Aug 21, 12:16

Probably a good moment to once again link "This is what winning looks like". The writting has been on the wall for along time.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Fri, 20. Aug 21, 17:21

I didn't watch that whole video. Much of that is sickening. Can't help but feel for the people there. Just goes to show that no matter what, short of staying there indefinitely and imposing our own laws and morality, that country is in trouble.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by felter » Sat, 21. Aug 21, 03:40

It's not that they have left, it is how it has been handled that is the main problem. It has been a total and utter clusterf**k, a prime example on how not to do something. Biden and Johnson should hang their heads in total and utter shame, as they have left others to lose theirs.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sat, 21. Aug 21, 10:03

So what should have been done differently, then?
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