Afghanistan

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Vertigo 7
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 22. Aug 21, 03:16

BaronVerde wrote:
Sat, 21. Aug 21, 23:07
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sat, 21. Aug 21, 22:39
Anywho, @baron, I'll ask you too... what should have been done differently? Please be specific.
Hypothetically spoken ?

I even recall the Sovjet intevention in 79. So, from my viewpoint, Afghanistan has allways been a proxy of the superpowers acting on the backs of people and wondering why there's growing terrorism. Support from either side varied from time to time and party to party, I believe them 'Muricans have supported or fought against several parties through the decades, opportunistically acting depending on situation and who was in charge when and where. Also, the local groups, be they Taliban, Mudjaheddin or whomever, aren't uniform or even organized and not exactly bound to Afghanistan as a political state. Then there is Iran and Pakistan and maybe to a degree India trying to bend things in this or that way, giving shelter to these or those, and recently China and their will for stability no matter what has entered the scene.

So, I fear I do not have a specific answer. I believe though, and that's just an opinion, that the late 'Murrican leaders acted at least partly with just their voters in mind or just out of ill will and brickwall-thinking, not exactly out of political or humanitarian necessity or even because of military advice. But I am not an expert for the middle east, so here's the barrel of salt.

What could have been done different is a better planned retreat, not what looks like a bare getaway, head over heels leaving everything and everybody behind. That's of course not just the Americans, other countries including Germany is involved as well, though at a smaller scale. Not sure about Spanish involvement ? So better planning, even listening to the military guys who have been cited criticizing, and of course a more grown-up judgement of the humanitarian sutiation.

In the end, I fear, and the first Teladi von der Leyen has already been unable to hold still and ask for a 'pragmatic approach' or some blabla like that, bloody money will dictate the way, and to a degree local sphere of influence, which the American's have now given up further weaking their position in the world. Afghanistanis are sitting on considerable resources everybody wants to get a grip on. Bloody economy.

(this all is just an opinion, even if I use wording that sounds like assertion)
I know Afghanistan had it's strings tugged in proxy conflicts in the past, but the beginning of this 20 year long incursion was strictly to hunt al-Qaeda. At least, that's how it started. Once Bin Laden was put down, I have no f'n clue why we were still there. And that's something I don't think anyone can adequately explain. I sincerely hope it was not to keep lobbyist money flowing into the hands of politicians, whatever the case is.

As to the withdrawal, again, I'll point out we had been withdrawing since 2014. It should not have taken 7 years to do it. Trump announced the formal agreement to withdraw a year ago, and Biden again announced it again in April, though with slightly different dates. Point being, we had our plan in place to remove our people. They faltered in removing the locals that assisted our troops, but from all appearances that has been sorted out and they're on their way out now. Whatever anyone else did/did not do to plan for that can't be put on the US.

I know the videos of the people crowding the airport makes things look like it was unplanned and just a last minute decision, but that's just not the case. (in fact, the stand down started on May 1) What was unplanned was the immediate laying down of Afghan forces in the face of the Taliban and people's resulting panic. The government surrendered and the Taliban took control without firing a shot. Yeah, there was some equipment left behind, most of which, sadly, was left to the Afghan forces for them to use against the Taliban... womp womp.

Again, I'll point out, the Taliban appear to be keeping their word. I'm completely shocked but hey, good on them if they're serious about it. Only time will tell what happens then but IF they continue as they are and people start to calm down, just maybe the Taliban can form something akin to a society out of Afghanistan. We shall see. If they don't, then they don't and Afghanistan is back to where it was in 2000.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Santi » Sun, 22. Aug 21, 20:48

mr.WHO wrote:This show that for most of the West this is more important. Thus seem that politicians and even military are more interested LGBTQ than proper preparation and planning for orderly retreat.
BaronVerde wrote:
Sat, 21. Aug 21, 23:07

What could have been done different is a better planned retreat, not what looks like a bare getaway, head over heels leaving everything and everybody behind. That's of course not just the Americans, other countries including Germany is involved as well, though at a smaller scale. Not sure about Spanish involvement ? So better planning, even listening to the military guys who have been cited criticizing, and of course a more grown-up judgement of the humanitarian situation.
The planning for leaving Afghanistan was done years ago, for example Spanish combat troops left after combat operations were terminated, around 2014, as an answer to BaronVerde, Spain just had a dozen trainers and maybe another dozen as embassy staff and security, left in the country, Afghan nationals that helped Spain in different roles amount for the majority of the 500 people that the Spanish government declared that have to be evacuated.

Plenty of reports in the Spanish media about the chaos and delays in getting our people out of there, but we have to wait for the USA to give us a slot in order for our planes to land and pick up the people, and we have a limited time to do so, because there are lots of countries doing the same, add a mass of Afghans that are clogging the access to the airport trying to get out of the country, not because they worked for the western powers, but because they were activists for rights or more freedoms, maybe because the see a chance to emigrate where they can have a better life, or simply have money, and the result is chaos.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by matthewfarmery » Sun, 22. Aug 21, 20:57

Also I hear that passes to the west can be bought on the black market for about $4,000. So out of those that are trying to get a plane out, it may be difficult to know who they are? while anyone who worked for the UK will have their data on file, but those that use black market passes, then they might lead to problems later. So it just sounds like its a total mess at the airport, and sounds that not everyone will be evaced in time.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by BaronVerde » Sun, 22. Aug 21, 21:06

Ok, thanks for the heads up.

Today I read that the US are mobilizing civil aircraft to help fly people out. Let's see how much of this comes to be reality under these circumstances.

Source:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/22/poli ... index.html

Parts of the Middle East and northern Africa are becoming uninhabitable in short time because of sinking ground water tables and temperatures beyond 50°C. Not sure how the situation is in Afghanistan with its mountainous regions, probably not that bad, but climate change is certainly causing more pressure on the people living there and in adjacent countries, like Iran which is being hit hard by drought and heat.

We are, additionally to the political mess, also observing consequences and effects of climate change manifestating themselves and complicating efforts. More and more these become drivers of conflicts and migration events.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Santi » Sun, 22. Aug 21, 21:25

@BaronVerde

Thanks for pointing that out, it is not only the bottleneck at Kabul airport that is making things difficult for evacuation, as the article points out:

"The planes will not fly to Hamid Karzai International airport, but instead will "be used for the onward movement of passengers from temporary safe havens and interim staging bases," the Pentagon said in a news release.

At one point evacuation efforts were halted because "safe havens/staging bases" were overloaded with people.

What we have at the moment is a shuttle service, from Kabul airport to the nearest friendly base or country, then other planes will take the people to the countries where the evacuation order was issued from.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by clakclak » Fri, 27. Aug 21, 11:25

With the recent terror attack that killed US personal among others, how will the US react? Biden's speech reminded me a lot of the rethoric of Bush after 9/11.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by matthewfarmery » Fri, 27. Aug 21, 15:06

While the loss of lives is a sadness, however, the whole thing was bound to happen, and happen regardless of who is president. Plus the deadline for the withdraw didn't seem it was going to be extended. But still a mess, and one that was bound to happen. Trump is demanding that Biden should resign, but I still think the result would have been the same if Trump remained in power, and Trump would have ignored it, or blamed someone else for the attack.

In the end, this has turned out very messy, could it have been avoided? again, a big target like that, with a lot of people, perfect target. But yeah, with a scramble of trying to get as many people out of the country, mistakes will happen.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Fri, 27. Aug 21, 15:15

Doubt we'll turn around and go back. Withdrawal is still on track to be completed this weekend. I wouldn't expect much unless some actionable intel surfaces. IF anything goes down, likely will be in the form of a drone strike or SEAL team.

Of course, Faux 'news' isn't missing an opportunity to blame Mexico. :roll:
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Chips » Sat, 28. Aug 21, 15:32

matthewfarmery wrote:
Fri, 27. Aug 21, 15:06
While the loss of lives is a sadness, however, the whole thing was bound to happen, and happen regardless of who is president. Plus the deadline for the withdraw didn't seem it was going to be extended. But still a mess, and one that was bound to happen. Trump is demanding that Biden should resign, but I still think the result would have been the same if Trump remained in power, and Trump would have ignored it, or blamed someone else for the attack.

In the end, this has turned out very messy, could it have been avoided? again, a big target like that, with a lot of people, perfect target. But yeah, with a scramble of trying to get as many people out of the country, mistakes will happen.
Having had a quick look, I don't think it's the attack specifically, more the Taliban taking over Afghanistan. I mean, Trump didn't resign after terror attacks on American soil, let alone foreign soil, so would be insanely rich for him to pop off about the bomb at the airport in Afghanistan... (NY truck attack, Las Vegas assault rifle attack - which killed more and injured more).

But the call itself is insane; it's just Trump bluster and headline grabbing opportunism to deflect from the investigations into his crime and create political capital (the only thing that can keep him from jail I imagine).

I mean... he started the "withdraw from Afghanistan" and made a deal with the Taliban (peace deal) which included the timeline for it to happen within (which, oddly enough...). But everyone knows he lives in La La Land.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sat, 28. Aug 21, 19:22

Chips wrote:
Sat, 28. Aug 21, 15:32
matthewfarmery wrote:
Fri, 27. Aug 21, 15:06
While the loss of lives is a sadness, however, the whole thing was bound to happen, and happen regardless of who is president. Plus the deadline for the withdraw didn't seem it was going to be extended. But still a mess, and one that was bound to happen. Trump is demanding that Biden should resign, but I still think the result would have been the same if Trump remained in power, and Trump would have ignored it, or blamed someone else for the attack.

In the end, this has turned out very messy, could it have been avoided? again, a big target like that, with a lot of people, perfect target. But yeah, with a scramble of trying to get as many people out of the country, mistakes will happen.
Having had a quick look, I don't think it's the attack specifically, more the Taliban taking over Afghanistan. I mean, Trump didn't resign after terror attacks on American soil, let alone foreign soil, so would be insanely rich for him to pop off about the bomb at the airport in Afghanistan... (NY truck attack, Las Vegas assault rifle attack - which killed more and injured more).

But the call itself is insane; it's just Trump bluster and headline grabbing opportunism to deflect from the investigations into his crime and create political capital (the only thing that can keep him from jail I imagine).

I mean... he started the "withdraw from Afghanistan" and made a deal with the Taliban (peace deal) which included the timeline for it to happen within (which, oddly enough...). But everyone knows he lives in La La Land.
Well... his target audience still believes the orange one will somehow magically get "appointed" as president so any excuse for Biden to resign is good enough for them... even though if he were to resign, that'd just move Harris into the presidency, but that thought is too horrible for them to comprehend so they stick to the wishful thinking magic story.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Alan Phipps » Sat, 28. Aug 21, 21:13

Can we please stick to the thread topic and not start another Trump thread. Thanks.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 29. Aug 21, 15:21

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/28/10320168 ... tagon-says

Called it. Drone strikes took out some of the terrorists and will likely see more as they're identified.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by EGO_Aut » Sun, 29. Aug 21, 22:19

If a people wants a change of government, they have to stand up and fight. The Taliban have been fighting for many decades, when I was a child against the Russians (Rambo sends his regards) and then against the, let's say "coalition of the willing".
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 10:14

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 29. Aug 21, 15:21
Called it. Drone strikes took out some of the terrorists and will likely see more as they're identified.
Neighbours say the airstrike killed an innocent family including children. What the car actually was intended for and who was in it is unclear even to the US military command.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/29/asia ... index.html

Subjective opinion:
Maybe this is another case of 'collateral damage', maybe just a political statement "we can kill anybody anywhere", idk. I doubt it will have the intended effect of preventing terrorism. When bystanders remember torn apart bodies of children and connect it to an American drone strike, then I can even imagine that recruiters of terror orginsations will find an easier time. I know this is discussed inconclusively if drone strikes lead to less or more terrorism.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 14:48

BaronVerde wrote:
Mon, 30. Aug 21, 10:14
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 29. Aug 21, 15:21
Called it. Drone strikes took out some of the terrorists and will likely see more as they're identified.
Neighbours say the airstrike killed an innocent family including children. What the car actually was intended for and who was in it is unclear even to the US military command.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/29/asia ... index.html

Subjective opinion:
Maybe this is another case of 'collateral damage', maybe just a political statement "we can kill anybody anywhere", idk. I doubt it will have the intended effect of preventing terrorism. When bystanders remember torn apart bodies of children and connect it to an American drone strike, then I can even imagine that recruiters of terror orginsations will find an easier time. I know this is discussed inconclusively if drone strikes lead to less or more terrorism.
I'm sorry that innocent bystanders were caught in the middle. however, I will also say that they would be likely dead regardless. The vehicle was prepped for a suicide bomb run. What didn't happen, though, was the bomb detonating in the middle of a crowded street, or at the airport - which was the suspected target. If you wanna blame someone, blame the cowards trying to use a 2 year old as a shield. I do hate that they lost their life, but this action also saved many more.

I know that its easy to armchair quarterback after a situation has passed and criticize. And I'm also in the camp of "the ends can't justify the means". But what choice is there with this? Let them carry out their mission? Force them into detonating prematurely and risk additional lives? These are people who believe they're doing some sky wizards work by killing themselves and taking out as many others with them as possible and they're eager to do it. If you're hoping to try to catch them when they're alone and have some kind of James Bond moment to kill them, that's wishful thinking.
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:16

That article says it is unclear if there were suicide bombers in the vehicle, and we do not know what the intentions of the now dead people really were. I am inclined to believe the neighbours who were cited saying they weren't connected to ISIS or Daesh. Americans admited the strike was "over the horizon", so they don't know either whom they actually hit. They are "investigating" according to the chief command, which is limited to satellites, informants and overflights because the area is not under their control.

Opinion again:
One doesn't drop bombs if there are innocent people nearby. One doesnt't shoot though a crowd if there is a murderer inside, that's not an arithmetic exercise, it's human ethics. One is patient and helpful, of which I see no sign in such actions. To me it seems like a panic action to cover the retreat or a retribution for a previous attack, which already triggered a counter retribution. This is not a shooter game, and it is unclear if drone strikes prevent terrorism.

It is my opinion that in the contrary this only leads to more suffering and easy recruitment, but I must admit I am slightly upset by the news. It is not the first time that innocent bystanders were killed by a cowardly drone or air strike.

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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:40

BaronVerde wrote:
Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:16
That article says it is unclear if there were suicide bombers in the vehicle, and we do not know what the intentions of the now dead people really were. I am inclined to believe the neighbours who were cited saying they weren't connected to ISIS or Daesh. Americans admited the strike was "over the horizon", so they don't know either whom they actually hit. They are "investigating" according to the chief command, which is limited to satellites, informants and overflights because the area is not under their control.

Opinion again:
One doesn't drop bombs if there are innocent people nearby. One doesnt't shoot though a crowd if there is a murderer inside, that's not an arithmetic exercise, it's human ethics. One is patient and helpful, of which I see no sign in such actions. To me it seems like a panic action to cover the retreat or a retribution for a previous attack, which already triggered a counter retribution. This is not a shooter game, and it is unclear if drone strikes prevent terrorism.

It is my opinion that in the contrary this only leads to more suffering and easy recruitment, but I must admit I am slightly upset by the news. It is not the first time that innocent bystanders were killed by a cowardly drone or air strike.
More than 500 people died in Coventry when Churchill allowed the Nazis to bomb the town despite him having advanced knowledge of the plan. Was that cowardly of him to allow those innocents to die?

Again, I'm seeing a lot of criticism, but I'm not seeing a lot of alternatives. How would you respond to a person with nothing to lose and a bomb in their car that's okay with killing themselves and as many people as possible?
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:53

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:40
How would you respond to a person with nothing to lose and a bomb in their car that's okay with killing themselves and as many people as possible?
This is an interesting discussion, but I fear it may be OT.

To show-off my mindset 8) : It is almost 40 years since a draft officer posted leading questions to me. I was short before my 18th birthday then and there was military service for boys in that country (Germany). A ridiculous idea today :-). I only could tell him I will *not* kill people. Apparently I was convincing enough and got around the military service.

To answer your question. I will try to convince them not to throw away their lives and that of others, I may try to physically hold them back or call help from others to try and avoid the worst, but I will not kill them. I will warn and shout and yell to all bystanders and hope that isolates the person. In the end I will walk away, very sad. But this is not going to happen since I will never get in direct contact with them, not where I live.

Hope that soothes the waves. Back to the poor people in Afghanistan :-)
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:59

BaronVerde wrote:
Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:53
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 30. Aug 21, 15:40
How would you respond to a person with nothing to lose and a bomb in their car that's okay with killing themselves and as many people as possible?
This is an interesting discussion, but I fear it may be OT.

To show-off my mindset 8) : It is almost 40 years since a draft officer posted leading questions to me. I was short before my 18th birthday then and there was military service for boys in that country (Germany). A ridiculous idea today :-). I only could tell him I will *not* kill people. Apparently I was convincing enough and got around the military service.

To answer your question. I will try to convince them not to throw away their lives and that of others, I may try to physically hold them back or call help from others to try and avoid the worst, but I will not kill them. In the end I will walk away, very sad. But this is not going to happen since I will never get in direct contact with them, not where I live.

Hope that soothes the waves. Back to the poor people in Afghanistan :-)
I'm sorry... what? Did you not read the part of the article that said
"US military forces conducted a self-defense unmanned over-the-horizon airstrike today on a vehicle in Kabul, eliminating an imminent ISIS-K threat to Hamid Karzai International Airport," the CENTCOM statement read.
"Significant secondary explosions from the vehicle indicated the presence of a substantial amount of explosive material," it added.
Not OT at all, it's exactly what happened.

Anyway, your response to an impending threat is to talk to fanatics in hopes to convince them to not carry out their mission but otherwise do nothing? Or rather get yourself killed in the process?
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 30. Aug 21, 16:05

@Vertigo: We don't know if those now dead people actually did have bad intentions. According to the neighbours that was not the case and Americans just bombed innocent people. That cited "imminent threat" may not have existed at all.

Not responding to leading questions any more.
Last edited by BaronVerde on Mon, 30. Aug 21, 16:09, edited 1 time in total.

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