Coronavirus: COVID-19

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Cpt.Jericho
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Cpt.Jericho » Wed, 9. Jun 21, 20:46

Tamina wrote:
Wed, 9. Jun 21, 20:08
May I ask what happened to the other 12 people of these 126?

However 3 out of >100 people seems reasonably safe. And falls right into the numbers of the studies proclaiming an effectiveness of >95%.
Those 3 would be the number if all had been fully vaccinated. But they aren't.
Around here the rate was - last time I bothered - at about 20%s having had both shots. In my book this means 3 out of 20 out of those > 100.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by red assassin » Wed, 9. Jun 21, 20:49

Tamina wrote:
Wed, 9. Jun 21, 20:08
May I ask what happened to the other 12 people of these 126?

However 3 out of >100 people seems reasonably safe. And falls right into the numbers of the studies proclaiming an effectiveness of >95%.
Don't know. Possibly not known, possibly edge cases like "received vaccine yesterday", possibly an error in one or more of the figures.

You can't generally calculate the effectiveness from just these figures, you also need to know how many people are vaccinated. (Since you're comparing the case rate in vaccinated vs vaccinated populations - if one of the populations is bigger, the proportions will be off.) However, as about 50% of the UK's adult population are fully vaccinated for covid right now, your effectiveness estimate is probably pretty much right. (Although the population hasn't been 50% vaccinated at random; the most vulnerable half of the population has been vaccinated, which would make the vaccine effectiveness look lower than it really is.)
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by felter » Wed, 9. Jun 21, 20:50

The thing with all of that is that there is no actual mention of time scale, is that for the last day, the last week, the last month all he says is recent which could mean anything. Another thing is Hancock has been shown to be a liar and is not adverse to manipulating what he is saying to make them look good, not that there is anyone in the current government that is not known for that mind you, so that is not a personal dig at him alone. Anyway the numbers are all rising in all fields, from deaths, to hospitalisation, to new infections, the last is currently rising pretty rapidly. The other thing of note worthiness is that everything is currently looking nearly the exact same as when they ended the first lockdown. Also I keep saying this, but the vaccine is not a cure, while it helps in the control of the virus it does not stop it and while the virus is still prevalent somewhere else this is not over. All it takes is one mutation and we are back to square one. I know Boris the clown wants everything to go back to normal but that is not going to happen anytime soon, no matter how many fingers are crossed.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Tamina » Wed, 9. Jun 21, 21:08

I was counting in that about 40% of all people in GB are fully vaccinated and the effectiveness is calculated "sick-vacc / sick-not-vacc" not "sick-vacc / vacc" when both parties are equally populated.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by red assassin » Wed, 9. Jun 21, 21:14

Those figures are for all confirmed delta variant cases. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... a-suggests Note that not all cases are sequenced so that's not the actual total number of delta cases, it's just to give a picture of the outcomes for known delta cases vs other variants. The majority of cases in the UK are delta variant at this point.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
For further context, for the whole of the UK, there are currently 1024 Covid patients in hospital, with about 120 new patients being admitted per day. Numbers for both of these are rising slightly.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by pjknibbs » Thu, 10. Jun 21, 07:50

There's another factor to consider here. From what I've heard, people who have been vaccinated and catch Covid tend to have much better outcomes and require less treatment than those who didn't have the vaccination. The "less treatment" part is important--the thing that really kills the health service is when you've got Covid patients in for weeks. If those same patients go in for a couple of days and are then discharged, things get a lot more manageable.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Fri, 2. Jul 21, 11:46

Following is a statement from sciencemag.org concerning a (peer reviewed) study that states that Covid vaccines kill, and which is used by anti vaxxers and Covid deniers. The study was filed by data scientists from Germany and Netherlands, and reviewed without criticism.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07 ... g-covid-19
The data has been misused because it makes the (incorrect) assumption that all deaths occurring post vaccination are caused by vaccination, [...] [This] is grossly irresponsible, particularly for a journal specialising in vaccines
None of the paper’s authors is trained in vaccinology, virology, or epidemiology. They are: [...]
The three peer reviewers on the paper, two of them anonymous, did not offer any substantial criticism [...]
Just general 'all is well' verbiage.
It’s very evident from their reviews that they don’t have any topic expertise. The authors don’t either [...]
, followed by a discussion of some of the paper's shortcomings.

----------------
The scientific method at work. A faulty paper was submitted and unluckily passed the peer review, and immediately (the next day) got corrected, naming the problems. These things happen, and I could tell a few stories from the field of archeology :-). It is abit of a shame that in a world of disinformation these things are immediately exploited. In a less sensible environment where people's lives aren't immediately at stake, this would not have had such grave consequences, it would have been an 'issue or matter arising'.

Edit: after reading some other statements on the paper (all with the same tenor) it becomes pretty evident that one can do a lot of things with data and their corellation and association. But without background knowledge of what the data represents, how it came to be and how reliable it is, the conclusions are just piffle: nonsense in, nonsense out.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 2. Jul 21, 12:55

IMO, no vaccine will save you if you don't save yourself first.
Notice that before vacination and after vacination majority of deaths is COVID + other conditions.

One would think, that after 2 years and shock of global pandemic people would at least care about their health more - yet the very first thing I saw after lockdowns have been lifted is a crowd of fat f*cks storming McDonalds and KFC, ordering double BigMac and Large sodas.
Not that during lockdows, they were deprived of these things either - in deepest lockdown 98% outdoor activity I saw on the streets were "Uber Eats and such" delivery bikers.


For me the COVID is the longest continous period daily exercises and outdoor activities (bike, walking).
I'm now much more careful with my diet and avoid trash food and processed food like a plague (except a "cheat day" once per two weeks, but I feel like I will drop it after some time, or change it to "fancy/expensive food" day).
What is even more suprising, during the lockdowns, I significantly toned down on alcohol, even if I didn't actively seek reform in that area :D


Seriously, at this point, more and more cases will be simply "COVID + stupidity"...or COVID will mutate like a Spanish Flu and will mostly kill young and healthy...in that case, the joke is on me and I'll accept fat f*ck "all you can eat" party over my death bed and grave :D

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Fri, 2. Jul 21, 17:23

The above mentioned study about COVID vaccines' safety has been retracted because of the already mentioned faulty reasoning.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/729/htm

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Fri, 2. Jul 21, 19:06

... So having been caught out in a very unethical data misrepresentation, the report authors bluster rather than apologise. :roll:
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Fri, 2. Jul 21, 20:26

Yeah. And I mean, if a publisher has an extraordinary or even just non-mainstream claim on the table from people who haven't published in the field before, proof read by one adminstrative person and two unknown others, that should really trigger a more thorough review, maybe by indepent teams. Their reputation surely got a sizeable blow.

This is not as harmless as an unshielded cable connection feigning a force on a cavity resonating an electromagnetic field. Or a bad plug triggering a signal before lightspeed could have reached the detector :-)

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by eladan » Sun, 4. Jul 21, 01:49

mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 2. Jul 21, 12:55
IMO, no vaccine will save you if you don't save yourself first.
Notice that before vacination and after vacination majority of deaths is COVID + other conditions.

...

Seriously, at this point, more and more cases will be simply "COVID + stupidity"...or COVID will mutate like a Spanish Flu and will mostly kill young and healthy...in that case, the joke is on me and I'll accept fat f*ck "all you can eat" party over my death bed and grave :D
As someone who is getting older, and collecting conditions which are in no way related to poor diet/lack of exercise (including a respiratory condition which I'm sure would not pair well with covid,) I find this to be a somewhat insulting post. We can't all choose to be young and healthy, you know.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Sun, 4. Jul 21, 11:03

eladan wrote:
Sun, 4. Jul 21, 01:49
As someone who is getting older, and collecting conditions which are in no way related to poor diet/lack of exercise (including a respiratory condition which I'm sure would not pair well with covid,) I find this to be a somewhat insulting post. We can't all choose to be young and healthy, you know.
Read carefully - I haven't said anything about old people. I said about fat people.
Plus, once you get more and more conditions, living and eating healthy is no longer a fad, it's literally live saving activity.
Even if I'm not that old, I already noticed it's essentian to review and change your diet at least every 10 years or so. I'd say every 5 years, if you live in US and UK, as the food quality there abyssman, even comparing to continental Europe.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Mightysword » Sun, 4. Jul 21, 20:36

mr.WHO wrote:
Sun, 4. Jul 21, 11:03
Even if I'm not that old, I already noticed it's essentian to review and change your diet at least every 10 years or so. I'd say every 5 years, if you live in US and UK, as the food quality there abyssman, even comparing to continental Europe.
I would say by mid 30' is when one should be mindful about it. Of course the sooner the better, but that's the latest. And I also I agree about food quality. Even as someone who cook probably 19/20 his own meal, it's still not easy to reach a gold standard in eating healthy in the US simply due to the quality of ingredient available. I had heard the UK is a bit better but I'm not sure. For people who eat out all the times, I feel that essentially a Russian roulette with your health.

I know that since arrived in the US, I have been eating not even half the amount, but can easily gain weight twice as fast. :evil:

I definitely would be one of those fat people you're referring to if I had not make a hard adjustment about a decade ago. :wink:
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Sun, 4. Jul 21, 20:57

I think we are drifting into speculation about national lifestyles now rather than staying on topic. Let's stay discussing Covid please.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Sun, 4. Jul 21, 22:00

Mightysword wrote:
Sun, 4. Jul 21, 20:36
I know that since arrived in the US, I have been eating not even half the amount, but can easily gain weight twice as fast. :evil:

I definitely would be one of those fat people you're referring to if I had not make a hard adjustment about a decade ago. :wink:
I know it's hard to eat healthy and avoid pocessed food and I'm aware that's even harded in US/UK.

However (and it will neatly allow me to get back on COVID topic), I'd like to point that whole side-discussion started by me seing fat (and I mean like visibly 20-30 kg above proper weight) people storming fast foods ordering full set as soon as lockdowns were lifted.

If global pandemic was not enough to reform these people, nothing will.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Mightysword » Wed, 7. Jul 21, 00:36

And I think it's actually very relevant atm. It goes beyond the long term effect like diabetes or obese, but also immediate effect. We have heard a lot of talk about people with compromise immune system are more vulnerable, and that have aspect we can't and can help with. I had read studies from many years ago that consuming certain amount of sugar can suppress White Blood Cell activities up to 50% for 3-5 hours afterward. So pickup that pepsi or frappuccino from a fast food joint on your way to work in the morning or for lunch basically make you vulnerable for the majority of the working hours! The amount of sugar in a typical frap (in the US) is equal or exceed the weekly intake amount, and stuffs like that are not exactly rare in fast food culture ... or when you mingle at a party.

The phrase "the new normal" is something we had heard before for post COVID, and I wish people will actually pay it mind. One of the thing I know I gonna do is that if I gonna order from thing like a frap (which I allows myself no more than 5 times a year) or any cold+sweet drink, it will be something only for consuming at home after I have no plan of going out for the rest of the day. Instead my goto drink gonna be hot ginger tea. Basically, my winter/flu season routine gonna be adopted for year round, as least for another year.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Wed, 7. Jul 21, 11:42

Mightysword wrote:
Wed, 7. Jul 21, 00:36
The amount of sugar in a typical frap (in the US) is equal or exceed the weekly intake amount
Oh? kinda funny that the FDA daily added sugar intake value is 50g and a large frappuccino has 49g total sugar. While certainly high, that's hardly exceeding a "weekly intake amount".
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Wed, 7. Jul 21, 12:58

Guys, gentle hint, it is allways good to define clearly what you're talking about, and if citing someone else, to add a quote with a link. And to avoid sarkasm or ambiguity because that's hard to understand in an internet post where there is only writing but other fundamental aspects of communication are missing. Else there is too much interpretational leeway and potential misunderstanding.

Arey you talking about a recommended or an actual amount per unit of time ? Is it a hard limit or a population based risk calculation ? Is it valid for everybody or certain groups of people, like age groups or gender ? Is it generally valid or does it depend on pre-conditions ? What are the consequences if it is exceeded, individual or for the respective population/group ?

My guess is you're talking about a recommended maximum weekly amount of sugar to reduce the risk of diabetes, and it is a statistical figure covering the whole population. That means for an individual that if you stay below, the risk of certain types of diabetes is reduced. But still, and that's the point of the last posts I think, it reduces a statistical risk, but does by no means guarantee that any given individual won't catch malicious diabetes or any metabolic illness if they just stay below the recommendation. There are other factors at play apart from personal eating habits, for instance activity level, genetic disposition, exposure to stress, environmental influence of all kinds and even general personal attitude ... so, all not that simple and reducible to single aspects.

This isn't COVID related, just saying. I can understand that somebody for instance with a genetic disorder or having lived near an industrial plant for a long time and got sick from all the chemicals, pollution and noise level takes offence when they are told that it is all just their own fault and too many sugar drinks.

Or all just playing too much computer games all day long sitting on our behinds :-)

---------------------
Back to COVID. New variants of the virus are causing concerns. To prevent them from happening it is extremely important that the spread is stopped, and this means besides all other precautionary measures vaccinations. So, if you haven't got your shot(s) (I got mine meanwhile, they are at 70% first dose and 50% fully vaccinated people here at the time of writing), do so or catch covid sooner or later.

On variants:
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-s ... 9-vaccines

And there's quite some work being done and published addressing questions and aspects of variants.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by CBJ » Wed, 7. Jul 21, 13:40

BaronVerde wrote:
Wed, 7. Jul 21, 12:58
Back to COVID. New variants of the virus are causing concerns. To prevent them from happening it is extremely important that the spread is stopped, and this means besides all other precautionary measures vaccinations.
I'm not quite sure how the UK's new policy, namely lifting pretty much all restrictions while we have high rates of infection, fits in with this eminently sensible advice. They've not made it entirely explicit, but the reasoning seems to be something along the lines of letting the infections run riot now while the vaccinations that have been given are still reasonably effective and reduce rates of serious illness and death, thereby hopefully avoiding a winter surge when flu will probably add to the chaos, while at the same time getting closer to herd immunity by having more people with resistance due to having had the virus relatively mildly. This seems like a rather high-risk strategy, given the chances of variants "escaping" the vaccine and resistance from having had the virus before, and I'm not looking forward to the prospect of being one of the lab rats in this experiment.

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