Russia-Ukraine War

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chew-ie
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Mon, 10. Jun 24, 08:11

burger1 wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 07:38
Macron calls election after dissolving national assembly. The far right National Rally party seems to be favoured. It's led by pro russian Marine Le Pen. Anti immigration parties seem to have favour. Elections are June 30, 2024 and July 7, 2024.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/macr ... in-eu-vote
D-Day seems to be forgotten :shock:

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Mon, 10. Jun 24, 16:16

Latest development after turtle-tank.

Now they have turtle-bikes:
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1799103390573814057

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Falcrack » Mon, 10. Jun 24, 17:43

chew-ie wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 08:11
burger1 wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 07:38
Macron calls election after dissolving national assembly. The far right National Rally party seems to be favoured. It's led by pro russian Marine Le Pen. Anti immigration parties seem to have favour. Elections are June 30, 2024 and July 7, 2024.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/macr ... in-eu-vote
D-Day seems to be forgotten :shock:
I feel that if Western nations had been united and fully committed in favor of defending Ukraine, with a publicly stated goal of supporting Ukraine to remove all Russian military presence from Ukraine, this war would have been over in Ukraine's favor long ago. With no nuclear holocaust. But the way things are going, with public opinion so divided over the issue, this war is only going to drag on and escalate until an inevitable, large scale global conflict breaks out, one which will be much more evenly balanced than it ought to be.

You'll have Russia, China, Iran, North Korea on one end, and many of the democracies of the world on the other. No idea what other nations like India, or countries in the Middle East, South America or Africa will do, but they'll probably be dragged in too in one way or another.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Chips » Mon, 10. Jun 24, 18:37

burger1 wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 07:38
Macron calls election after dissolving national assembly. The far right National Rally party seems to be favoured. It's led by pro russian Marine Le Pen. Anti immigration parties seem to have favour. Elections are June 30, 2024 and July 7, 2024.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/macr ... in-eu-vote
Isn't that always the way with EU elections though? UK things like Farage never really got anywhere (never been an MP), but he made it as an MEP where his political party did well.


As for the motorbike tarp video - it turns around in the road and goes back; I just thought it was a decoy - just like Ukraine had cardboard "HIMARS" as decoys. Wouldn't be too bad an idea :o

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Mon, 10. Jun 24, 22:49

Falcrack wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 17:43
[...] this war is only going to drag on and escalate until an inevitable, large scale global conflict breaks out, one which will be much more evenly balanced than it ought to be.

You'll have Russia, China, Iran, North Korea on one end, and many of the democracies of the world on the other. No idea what other nations like India, or countries in the Middle East, South America or Africa will do, but they'll probably be dragged in too in one way or another.
I'm guessing that most of the Middle East will stay out because of Israel, but they'll protest a lot. Russia (if the last two years are any indication) will continue to be bogged down in Ukraine and China will probably be bogged down in Taiwan (perhaps the Chinese navy thinks that it can take Taiwan in a few weeks?). That leaves North Korea attacking the South but, if the North Korean army is as good as the Russian army then they'll be bogged down too. With so much going on in the world perhaps India will make a move against Pakistan, who knows. I doubt that South America or Africa will do anything, they have too much poverty and corruption and those populations just want to emigrate to a better life (Europe, U.S.).

Or maybe not much will happen and the war in Ukraine will gradually die down just like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Tue, 11. Jun 24, 10:17

Falcrack wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 17:43
chew-ie wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 08:11
burger1 wrote:
Mon, 10. Jun 24, 07:38
Macron calls election after dissolving national assembly. The far right National Rally party seems to be favoured. It's led by pro russian Marine Le Pen. Anti immigration parties seem to have favour. Elections are June 30, 2024 and July 7, 2024.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/macr ... in-eu-vote
D-Day seems to be forgotten :shock:
I feel that if Western nations had been united and fully committed in favor of defending Ukraine, with a publicly stated goal of supporting Ukraine to remove all Russian military presence from Ukraine, this war would have been over in Ukraine's favor long ago. With no nuclear holocaust. But the way things are going, with public opinion so divided over the issue, this war is only going to drag on and escalate until an inevitable, large scale global conflict breaks out, one which will be much more evenly balanced than it ought to be.

You'll have Russia, China, Iran, North Korea on one end, and many of the democracies of the world on the other. No idea what other nations like India, or countries in the Middle East, South America or Africa will do, but they'll probably be dragged in too in one way or another.
Russia has done a fae better job when it comes to its disinformation war than it has done when it comes to the actual military part of this operation. The EU elections are showing that. For example the AfD got great results in Germany and Putin just said that he wants to intensify the Cooperation between Moscow and the AfD. Oddly enough even he felt the need to justify working with them and specifically stated that Russia does not find them to be Neo-Nazis. Honestly one would have thought that it would have to be the AfD having to justify itself for working with Putin, but then again they were never subtle about it nor did they really deny their goal of acting like a fifth column. In my city there were Russian language speeches during AfD demonstrations and Russian flags were also commonly presented. And this was the AfD faction during Zelensky’s speech in the German Parliament today.. I think that picture makes things rather clear.


Source for Putins comments regarding the AfD (German): https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kei ... 75290.html
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Fri, 14. Jun 24, 09:18

clakclak wrote:
Tue, 11. Jun 24, 10:17
Russia has done a fae better job when it comes to its disinformation war than it has done when it comes to the actual military part of this operation.
That is because the disinformation war is something they started with already before or around 2008 and then got better and better with time while the attitude in Europe (bar few nations in East-Europe) was to shrug and just ignore the issues.
Some of that has to do with current generation of political leadership in many Western nations which, bolstered by relative huge economical resources of their nations, built political carriers by "kicking the can down the road" when it comes to problem solving.

Other part has to do that many welcomed Kremlin propaganda because that already corresponded to their world views and their contempt for what they call liberal democracies or the american hegemony (whether it a realistic perception or not is another discussion).

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 14. Jun 24, 10:53

Warenwolf wrote:
Fri, 14. Jun 24, 09:18
That is because the disinformation war is something they started with already before or around 2008 and then got better and better with time while the attitude in Europe (bar few nations in East-Europe) was to shrug and just ignore the issues.
Some of that has to do with current generation of political leadership in many Western nations which, bolstered by relative huge economical resources of their nations, built political carriers by "kicking the can down the road" when it comes to problem solving.
Interesting part is that somehow, Russians are getting foothold on former Austro-Hungary territories.
Hungary and Slovakia are now kinda pro-russian colaborators and Austria is quickly following their footsteps.


It's like darkest Polish bingo card:
AfD simping for Germany/Prussia glory
Austro-Hungary to the south
Putinist Russia wanting to restore the empire

Seem like boys are getting together for another round.

Suddenly, those 800 HIMARS equivalent doesn't seem like an insane number for Poland.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Fri, 14. Jun 24, 14:12

Russias influence in social media and Telegram spreading distrust within western societies definitely bears fruit. After all, Putin served in the KGB and knows the soviet strategies how to undermine countries.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Fri, 14. Jun 24, 14:22

mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 14. Jun 24, 10:53

Interesting part is that somehow, Russians are getting foothold on former Austro-Hungary territories.
Hungary and Slovakia are now kinda pro-russian colaborators and Austria is quickly following their footsteps.
You got it other way around Austria was first, then Hungary and then Slovakia. Also bit sure that the last AH emperor would be spinning in the grave if he knew what Kremlin was doing in his former possessions.
Tamina wrote:
Fri, 14. Jun 24, 14:12
Russias influence in social media and Telegram spreading distrust within western societies definitely bears fruit. After all, Putin served in the KGB and knows the soviet strategies how to undermine countries.
Yeah but don't underestimate the fact that the propaganda works because people do share his values. We know that fake news and bots are operated from North Macedonia as middlemen to Kremlin. Huge % of twitter/X bots regarding lets say Biden or Trump comes from there. Nobody is lifting a finger.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Sat, 15. Jun 24, 09:22

More Russian air bases hit and planes blown up. Might blow up some bombers? A su57 might have been hit earlier this week. More expensive air defence systems blown up. Airplane research factory on fire in Moscow. Ukraine taking back more land around Kharkiv but loses a bit in other areas. Decreased Russian troop losses should mean combat has decreased back to normal vs the push on Kharkiv.

Ukraine getting lots of new funding from many sources.

Gazprom production decreases to historic low. But methane and other emissions still increase.

https://www.newsweek.com/gazprom-russia ... as-1911098

Gazprom ordered to pay 13 billion euros (~14 billion usd) to Germany's Uniper which was nationalized by Germany.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-gazpro ... 47358.html

Russian funds used to pay Ukraine

1.5b euros may have been sent to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets in July?

50 billion loan backed by Russian assets?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... s-to-hand/

Orban gets worst election results in 20 years

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/hungarys-orb- ... 56575.html

Macron will stay Frances President even after the elections. 52% voter turn out? Free reroll?

Anti Russian and Anti China party voted in in Germany.

Nato might be taking over supplying/training Ukraine. Might help with Hungary's currently humbled Orban.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-defence ... 38300.html

Moldova elections might be interesting and will have Russian interference. Apparently if the Russian party loses they are planning riots.

Armenia withdrawing from Russian alliance.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/13/euro ... ijan-intl/

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal » Mon, 17. Jun 24, 04:51

Didnt I predict this?

Let me translate the deal in the fewer sentances: "I cant win in Ukraine, so why dont you just give me Ukraine and Eastern Europe"

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c9rre20dw7lo
google translate wrote: Russian President Vladimir Putin named two main conditions for the start of peace negotiations with Ukraine: the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, as well as Kyiv’s refusal to join NATO. The statement was made on the eve of the start of the peace summit in Switzerland, where Russia was not invited. In Kyiv, Putin's proposal was called unrealistic.

“As soon as Kyiv declares that it is ready and begins a real withdrawal of troops [from the territories of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions], and also declares its refusal to join NATO, we will immediately order a ceasefire and begin negotiations,” Putin said. speaking at a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (quote from RIA Novosti).

At the same time, he especially emphasized that Ukrainian troops must completely leave the territories of these regions, although, as is known, Russian troops only partially control them.

“And I would like to draw your attention to this: precisely from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative boundaries that existed at the time of their entry into Ukraine,” he said.

In addition, Ukraine must abandon plans to join NATO, have a “neutral, non-aligned, nuclear-free status,” ensure the rights of Russian speakers, undergo “denazification,” “demilitarization,” and accept “new territorial realities,” Putin said.

Agreements for the peaceful resolution of the conflict must be recorded in international treaties, and in addition, all sanctions imposed on Russia must be lifted.

In this case, Putin assured, the conflict in Ukraine will not only be frozen, but finally completed. He promised the Ukrainian troops to ensure their safe withdrawal.

lets see my post, what did I guess with the negotioation - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=443451&p=5214678#p5214678
1. western and southern Ukraine must become Russia. Check
2. no NATO membership, check, that's an easy one. EU wasnt mentioned that I know of, but I'd guess it's implied. Kremlin has hard time differentiating the two sometimes.
3. denazification, check. You all remember Bucha. + demilitarization. You can of course add that the only government to govern Ukraine is Russian. That's sort of a given.
5. remove sanctions, check. No word on Putin's arrest warrant. I assume it's implied.
6. I hear nothing there about rebuilding anything. Did anyone want Russia to pay for something?
7. no word on Sweden and Finland, but let me dig around, and I dig I did:

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/14/06/2024/ ... 80480c666a
google translate wrote: Vladimir Putin also said that the time has come to begin a broad discussion of a new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia. According to him, now “we are witnessing the collapse of the Euro-Atlantic security system,” which requires Russia, together with interested countries, to work out its options for ensuring security in Eurasia, then offering them for a broad international explanation.
...
in the future, “we must work” towards a gradual reduction in the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region;
...
“It can formulate not only the framework principles of Eurasian architecture based on the basic norms of international law, but also, in a broader sense, a strategic vision of the essence of the nature of multipolarity and multilateralism as a new system of international relations, replacing the Western-centric world,” he suggested.
...
If Europe wants to maintain itself as one of the independent centers of development, it certainly needs to be in good, kind relations with Russia, Putin noted
So no NATO on the continent, and the word is divided into specific borders with rules clearly defined. I wonder who gets to have eastern Europe in that plan. That's not that hard to guess.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Mon, 17. Jun 24, 10:46

burger1 wrote:
Sat, 15. Jun 24, 09:22

Anti Russian and Anti China party voted in in Germany.

And what party would that be? The biggest winner in the recent elections was the AfD, a party that for all intents and purposes acts like a fifth column for Russia. Meanwhile the biggest loser was the Greens. Now there is a lot of negative things you can say about the greens. I have a lot of critique for the green party even though I would be their perfect target audience in many regards due to my lifestyle, political leanings and socioeconomic status. However one thing that can not be said about the Green party is that they closed their eyes when it comes to Russia. Among all German parties they seem to have one of the best grasps of how Russian forgein policy works. For example this article from 2016 reads almost prophetic now in 2024.
Deutscher Bundestag/German Parliament: 2016 wrote:Berlin: (hib/HLE) The Bündnis 90/Die Grünen parliamentary group opposes the planned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, through which additional gas is to be supplied from Russia to Germany. [...] Nord Stream 2 also calls into question the actions of the EU and the German government with regard to the political and economic strengthening of Ukraine. The pipeline expansion could have an impact on the existing gas transit through Ukraine, according to the application. The transit fees of 1.8 billion euros per year would only continue to be available for the Ukrainian budget if the capacities expanded by Nord Stream 2 really did bring additional gas volumes to Europe. "Otherwise, the efforts of the state gas supplier Naftogaz and the majority state-owned operating companies to modernize the Ukrainian gas network would be hampered. Ukraine must remain part of the European gas supply system in the future," demands the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen parliamentary group, which also sees the danger "that Nord Stream 2 will unilaterally intensify European competition in the gas sector". The Russian energy supplier Gazprom could create monopolistic markets, which would increase dependence on the Russian company, which would increasingly control the entire gas supply chain.
Their biggest mistake was also being in favor of phasing out Nuclear power, but people often act as if it was somehow their doing, when at the time the CDU and SPD were in government, not the Greens. Now the CDU also was a big winner of the recent elections and they also had their share of Russian influenced members in their ranks. Most famously their energy policy spokesperson Joachim Pfeiffer had to withdraw his mandate after it was revealed that he had worked closely with russian lobbyists in 2021. In German politics the most Anti Russia parties are the FDP and Greens, not the CDU or AfD.

And to answer that question in advance: I did not vote for the Green party in the recent elections, so I am not trying to push them because they are 'my party'.
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