Russia-Ukraine War

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felter
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by felter » Thu, 12. May 22, 23:46

There's an update on that picture I showed last night of around 8 vehicles destroyed, I said it was only a small part of it, turns out it involves around 50 Russian vehicles destroyed, and the estimate is 1,000 Russian soldiers killed in that single attack, in other words the Ukrainians destroyed an entire Russian Battalion. Those troops were on their way to help bolster the lines that are collapsing around Kharkiv, this is another major hit to Russia.

Ben Hodges being interviewed about it.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 13. May 22, 08:21

Looks like Russia is abandoning Kharkiv front, just like with Kiyv front before.
Additionally, it now scale down it's encirlement plans yet agian.

Looks like this war will be ending one front a time - 3 more to go.

Whoever lead Ukrainian campaing is damn calm and methodical, taking time knowing it work in Ukraine favor.
I hope that Summer offensive is not just a PR move, but will be a damn epic ass whooping.

Edit: One thing bizzare me - where are Russian reserves? They should be able to brin something after 2 months, even without general mobilization. Where are they? at Finland?

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Olterin » Fri, 13. May 22, 11:19

mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 13. May 22, 08:21
Edit: One thing bizzare me - where are Russian reserves? They should be able to brin something after 2 months, even without general mobilization. Where are they? at Finland?
They are ... in reserve. As absurd as it sounds, Russia considers itself to be "at peace", i.e. no martial law or anything, technically. Which means that reservists stay in reserve. When people talk about mobilization, they generally mean "mobilizing the reserves" - mass conscript callups are something else entirely. As far as I've heard, anyone who's been in the Russian army in the past 5 years is part of the reserve - given the conscript/contract nature of the army, most of them will have been conscripts.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 13. May 22, 11:45

Olterin wrote:
Fri, 13. May 22, 11:19
They are ... in reserve. As absurd as it sounds, Russia considers itself to be "at peace", i.e. no martial law or anything, technically. Which means that reservists stay in reserve. When people talk about mobilization, they generally mean "mobilizing the reserves" - mass conscript callups are something else entirely. As far as I've heard, anyone who's been in the Russian army in the past 5 years is part of the reserve - given the conscript/contract nature of the army, most of them will have been conscripts.
Still it's odd, I don't ask about general mobilization when you could assemble a million or two troops, but country the size of Russia, having ongoing 150k troops operation, should be able to muster additional 50-100k more by now (and still call it "special operation").

I read some rumors that Russian reservist pool core is around 55+ years old and that COVID made significant dent in it.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Fri, 13. May 22, 13:51

Erdogan regarding Finland's and Sweden's potential membership in NATO:

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/

My take on it - he wants to hold the two country's application process as hostage in order to get concessions from EU or USA. After all he did ruin Turkeys economy in record time.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by euclid » Fri, 13. May 22, 15:09

This left me speechless. Poor lad, not even his Mum believes him. :-(

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Fri, 13. May 22, 16:53

felter wrote:
Thu, 12. May 22, 23:46
[...] Ukrainians destroyed an entire Russian Battalion.
:-o
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Fri, 13. May 22, 20:02

euclid wrote:
Fri, 13. May 22, 15:09
This left me speechless. Poor lad, not even his Mum believes him. :-(

Cheers Euclid
Same - I don't get it how things like that can happen in our times.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Fri, 13. May 22, 20:42

It is weird and scary how easily we humans can be manipulated..

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Sovereign01 » Sat, 14. May 22, 01:02

notaterran wrote:
Fri, 13. May 22, 16:53
felter wrote:
Thu, 12. May 22, 23:46
[...] Ukrainians destroyed an entire Russian Battalion.
:-o
Apparently, they did it using USA-supplied howitzers :twisted:
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by felter » Sat, 14. May 22, 03:07

Sovereign01 wrote:
Sat, 14. May 22, 01:02
notaterran wrote:
Fri, 13. May 22, 16:53
felter wrote:
Thu, 12. May 22, 23:46
[...] Ukrainians destroyed an entire Russian Battalion.
:-o
Apparently, they did it using USA-supplied howitzers :twisted:
Yeah, I would have to agree with that, I was looking at the pictures earlier they destroyed 73 vehicles and they hut them all in one go, no near misses or misses of any kind, so they had to have been using the M777 and M982 Excalibur guided ammunition. The M777 is the biggest headache for Russia, it has a potential effective range of 70KM and with the M982 Excalibur ammo they hit every time first time, so long as they have a drone pinging the target. Meanwhile, the best the Russians's can do is a little over 40KM, and it's touch and go if they hit the target or not. It's not just whether they hit or not, it seems to take the Russians forever to adjust and fire the next round, could take anywhere up to and beyond 2 minutes, while the Ukrainians with the M777 can fire rounds off in a matter of seconds between each round. So long as Ukraine are getting the ammo for the M777 it's a game changer, for example they have pushed the Russians back around the north and northeast of Kharkiv which means they can now use the M777 to hit the Russian main supply line or even Belgorod in Russia, and due to the extra 30KM range the Russians can't do much about it.

Watched a video Yesterday where the Ukrainians were using a DJI Mavic 3 Drone, that's a sub £2K drone. They are strapping bomblets to them flying over the Russians and letting the bomblets drop, they are raining terror onto the Russian soldiers as they do not see or hear the drones as they are so small and flying so high, but they often hear the bomblets dropping onto them as they run and duck for cover, most of the time it is far too late. There is nothing you can do about these drones, you could use radar to detect them but because they are the size of a bird there is no way to tell if it is actually a bird or a drone, so radar will be set to block them out. It's not like the Bayraktar which is 6m long and 12m wide and need a C&C to operate them, that DJI Mavic 3 Drone is less than 350mm wide when opened up and has a control range of 15KM and can be carried around in a backpack. Meanwhile, the Russians are using TU-141 drones which were last made in 1989, the Russians must have looted all of their military museums for some of the equipment they are using, it's so outdated.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Sat, 14. May 22, 08:10

People are listing Rand Pauls home address and google map location. Apparently people are upset about him delaying the 40b US aid package. Lend-lease work around this issue?

Turkey mad about pkk and Sweden. They'll probably bargain through the NATO joining process. Sweden and Finland still have safety insurances from several countries.

More oil refineries burn in Russia and someone tried to light a recruiting office on fire.

rumor - switchblade 600 drone haven't been delivered to Ukraine yet?

stats don't necessarily make sense vs recent videos.

May 12, 2022 stats

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 73/photo/1

May 13, 2022 stats

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 97/photo/1

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Sat, 14. May 22, 08:38

@Felter

I really want to warn people against forming their opinions regarding this conflict in particular and military hardware in general based on youtube videos and reddit posts.
Nobody who knows what they are talking about will post anything because their national DoD equivalent will hang them by their private parts if they posted anything confidential. If they are lucky.... And note that with confidential, I am not just talking about specifics of operation or hardware.

Which means that 90% of the info being posted online these days is being posted by amateurs or "has beens" who pontificate about stuff they never worked with. And when it comes to this conflict some of it is just plain government BS (Ghost of Kiev story). Remember before this war how many youtube channels talked about Russian equipment as if it was game changer?

DJI drones are made in China. Russians don't need radars to know where such drone is. It basically emits a signal "here I am" and if you know what to look for (and Chinese have shared this info with Russians) you'll know about the drone the moment it is turned on.
Also, drones that are this small can be indeed picked up by radar - periscopes of submarines were picked up by primitive radars already during ww2, couple of kilometers away. Today we can pick up insects (yepp....). Speed filtration that came decades later (not only speed but also flight pattern and frequency of wings flapping) and is available today all over the world (although it was rather bulky 20 years ago and may perhaps be).

Finally Tu-141 drone is indeed used by Ukraine - and perhaps only by Ukraine.... (source: https://medium.com/war-is-boring/ukrain ... 03f80c51ba)
The drone that flew over several countries into Croatian airspace was probably Ukrainian according to Croatian DoD. Russians on other hand still have plenty of stuff like Orlans,Kama and Kub-Bla around (which use foreign made equipment so perhaps their production is limited in the future).
Russian problem is not lack of equipment but the lack of competence.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by JSDD » Sat, 14. May 22, 10:49

Warenwolf wrote:
Fri, 13. May 22, 13:51
Erdogan regarding Finland's and Sweden's potential membership in NATO:

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/

My take on it - he wants to hold the two country's application process as hostage in order to get concessions from EU or USA. After all he did ruin Turkeys economy in record time.
thats misleading or .. not quite correct
turkey doesnt want a 2nd greece in NATO with whom they got to struggle about ... those nordic countries are like the US / Britain / Germany / many other "morally superior", telling the turks what to do and whom to give away a big part of their country (namely: the kurds). turkey wont give away anything to the kurds ... and dont want to offend russia either since it has plans to further military projects regarding its air defence (S-400 and i think the S-500, too)

turkey was sanctioned by the US for buying the S-400 (CAATSA), but they wont back down on that deal
(no matter what the US might want another souveran country [turkey] to do)

US "officially" fears that S-400 can be used to spy on the stealth fighter F-35 "secrets" ...
what they really mean is that the radar profile of a F-35 can be detected by an S-400 and maybe transfered to russia (to kind of update the database)
what i find odd then is: why do the US sell the F-35 all over europe, where in the middle of it (kaliningrad) are sitting several S-400s that can detect those "secrets" ?? :roll:
(that argument doesnt really make sense, but .. who cares, turkey is still sanctioned ^^)

.....................

yesterday i read about an attempt by the russians to cross a river with ponton bridges ... 2 of them being destroyed by the ukrainians, however a 3rd matched carry heavy vehicles across and the russians succeded, making it even harder to withstand russian advances in donbas in the coming weeks (htis sounds quite different from what i read here)

former german military advisor erich vad said yesterday in an interview similar things ... russians have a hard time advancing, yes, but their power is still overwhelming and its likely too late when western heavy weapons actually reach the front to enforce ukrainian defence lines (as we know, russia targeted bridges, refineries, fuel reservoirs and even the stashes of western weapoons directly, so the question remains: do the weapons even reach the frontlines at all ??)
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Sat, 14. May 22, 11:40

JSDD wrote:
Sat, 14. May 22, 10:49

thats misleading or .. not quite correct
turkey doesnt want a 2nd greece in NATO with whom they got to struggle about ... those nordic countries are like the US / Britain / Germany / many other "morally superior", telling the turks what to do and whom to give away a big part of their country (namely: the kurds).
If true he would have complained about Finland and Sweden before. In fact, everyone was surprised that he voiced his objection now, while remaining silent before. The discussion about Finland and Sweden joining NATO has been ongoing within the organization since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Secondly, Finns to my knowledge rarely "preach" anything to anyone and quick google search finds nothing regarding PKK or Kurdish question and Turkey.
Swedes are bit different, since Kurds do have bit more influence there and many critics of Turkish regime have found refuge there. And while they are being treated decently, there was time when Swedish security services counted Kurds as "usual suspects" whenever anything bad happened until recent times.


So I am sticking with my assumption until Erdogan gets bit more concrete on what he wants (probably attention is big part of it too).

PS:
Erich Vad is one of those German political generals who are probably very competent theoretically but have never actually led any unit in a war zone, either in a conventional or an unconventional war. He predicted end of military operations in Ukraine within days in February and modified that to that Ukraine had no chance in long term (saying Battle of Kiev was purely symbolic) in the start of March, finally changing his tune somewhat in April. That is what I have to say about that.

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