Russian poisoning

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felter
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Russian poisoning

Post by felter » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 03:57

I'm surprised that this has not been mentioned here, as it has been all over the news since it happened. While most suspect that is is the Russians that are responsible, the UK government have now all but confirmed that Moscow is behind the attack. The nerve agent used has been identified as a Russian military made chemical weapon, which can mean only one of two things either the that Russian committed a state sponsored attempted murder on UK soil, or that someone managed to steal the nerve agent from Russia, which is highly unlikely but if they have why has Russia not warned anyone about it as it would mean that terrorists have got a hold of a pretty lethal chemical weapon.

So we basically know that Russia are responsible but here's the thing, what can we do about it. You could look at it as an act of war and respond militarily but that is not going to happen. The idiot Corbyn says we should give them a serious talking too, while verbally attacking the UK government in the same breath of air. Meanwhile Russian state sponsored TV is goading the UK by also asking so what you going to do about it. While our main ally, America, their president is keeping stump about it as he doesn't want to annoy his Russian handlers. Tillerson has said the us agreed that it is probably Russian behind it, but we all know it doesn't matter what Tillerson says as Trump will just say the exact opposite.

So where do we stand, what do we do, what should we do and do you think it is a Russian government state sponsored assassination, or what do you think.
I'm not saying he is a Russian asset, I'm saying he sat on his asset when he was supposed to be confronting Putin.
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Post by burger1 » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 04:06

Sanctions, expel ambassadors, etc... Basically nothing. There is no upside to any real response.

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Post by muppetts » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 09:52

Putin shot down a passenger jet and nobody did anything, you think an old spook and his daughter are going to rate anything.
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clakclak
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Post by clakclak » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 15:06

muppetts wrote:Putin shot down a passenger jet and nobody did anything, you think an old spook and his daughter are going to rate anything.
That is factually true, but shooting down the plane was part of the campaign in Ukraine and the EU (and if I remember correctly the US as well) put sanctions against Russia in 2014. Now before anyone cries out: "Sanctions don't work", Russia in 2014 had a GDP of roughly $2 billion, in 2015 it was down to $1.3 billion. That is an insane crash.

Anway, despite sanctions (travel bans, economic sanctions, expelling the diplomat) what other measures are there? Honest question because I don't know if there is a lot more that can be done.
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Re: Russian poisoning

Post by Bishop149 » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 15:26

Putin knows that the UKs response it likely to be little more than a stern wagging of finger and obviously thinks that putting the fear of God into any opponents, where ever they might be in the world is well worth it.
felter wrote:The nerve agent used has been identified as a Russian military made chemical weapon, which can mean only one of two things either the that Russian committed a state sponsored attempted murder on UK soil, or that someone managed to steal the nerve agent from Russia, which is highly unlikely but if they have why has Russia not warned anyone about it as it would mean that terrorists have got a hold of a pretty lethal chemical weapon.
This is a topic upon which I have some specialist knowledge.
Have they actually confirmed which agent it was yet? I'd be very interested to know, I'm guessing based on the "we're pretty sure its Russia" line that its one of the Novichok agents. The thing that most of these things have in common is their spectacular toxicity with lethal doses in the milligram range, that being said no one has died, not even the target, implying that the culprit really didn't have very much of the stuff at all. Another thing is that many of them also have a bloody short shelf-life, perhaps implying a rather botched application of old stuff.

It most likely to be state sponsored but its not impossible for it to be otherwise. Material has been known to go missing from military stockpiles, in Russia in particular . . . . but that shelf-life issue would likely rapidly make any stolen stuff less than effective.

Its often stated that its all but impossible to make nerve agents safely and at scale without the the backing of a state and this is largely true but those two caveats are worth noting.
"Safely" - Doing it without proper equipment would certainly be dangerous and even with it you'd have to be pretty bloody careful. But this doesn't preclude someone who doesn't care about their own safety or who has access to the correct equipment. . . which isn't THAT hard to come by, pretty much any decent university chemistry lab could do it.
"At scale" - Yep this much is true, as I said you could find the equipment, raw materials and expertise to make nerve agent reasonably safely in pretty much any university chemistry lab . . . . but you couldn't make much without incurring significant expense or ending up on a government watch list on the basis of the materials you were buying. But if your intention is to kill and single individual you really don't need much.

It's fascinating that what were always considered esoteric military weapons are now being used for assassinations, the second time in recent years.
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Post by Tamina » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 15:38

This seems hasty. Why would Russia use poison that has written their name all over it? They are a lot but not stupid.

Why would Russia do that again? What do they gain by killing a double agent in a publicity stunt that damages their relations deeply with other important nations, again?
I am surprised Putin didn't kill him personally with a Russian flag on a stage.

I am just thinking: Who profits from a broken European/Russian relationship?
Practically anyone besides Europe or Russia! Including but not limited to Turkey, the U.S.A and China.
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Re: Russian poisoning

Post by felter » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 15:48

Bishop149 wrote:Have they actually confirmed which agent it was yet?
They have been confirmed as being from the Novichok series of nerve agents. You could be right about them being form old stock as they were developed by Russia during the 1970's and 1980's. It can be a gas or solid, where the solid can be dispersed as a powder, which I reckon (my own thoughts) is why they are still finding traces of it in the pub and restaurant but I don't know for sure.
muppetts wrote: you think an old spook and his daughter are going to rate anything.
It's not just a spook and his daughter, there is also a police officer and two other emergency medical attendees who showed symptoms. The police officer is still in hospital in a critical but stable condition. Plus there was also the potential of many others being infected, as anyone in the area at the time have been told to wash their clothing, me I would be throwing them out.
I'm not saying he is a Russian asset, I'm saying he sat on his asset when he was supposed to be confronting Putin.
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Post by euclid » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 15:52

Tamina wrote:This seems hasty. Why would Russia use poison that has written their name all over it? They are a lot but not stupid.

Why would Russia do that again? What do they gain by killing a double agent in a publicity stunt that damages their relations deeply with other important nations, again?
I am surprised Putin didn't kill him personally with a Russian flag on a stage.

I am just thinking: Who profits from a broken European/Russian relationship?
Practically anyone besides Europe or Russia! Including but not limited to Turkey, the U.S.A and China.
When two people quarrel, a third rejoices.
Exactly my thoughts!

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Post by RegisterMe » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 16:12

Who has access to / can produce Novichok?
Who has a motive to target a Russian who spied for MI6?

I'm not saying that Putin personally authorised the attempt on Skripal's life, but who other than (an arm of) the Russian state would even have an interest?

As for it being a false flag operation of some kind, that's a very, very high risk game when the sides you mess with are NATO and Russia.
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felter
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Post by felter » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 16:15

Good question. Too me I think there is a lot more to it than what we are hearing. If Putin is behind it I doubt he would have said use this or that it would more likely just be kill him. The books say that it is pretty darn hard to detect and work out when Novichok is used it's supposed to disperse pretty quickly leaving little to no trace, but that is from the 70's and 80's, things have changed since then. Not just that using an old school nerve agent on an old school spook, sounds about right. As for why do it, well there has been more and more people standing up to Putin back home in mother Russia so this kind of sends a message saying mess with me and you may just die a horrible death one day. So basically you can't prove it is him or not him, but if you are one of the ones standing up to him do you want to risk it.
I'm not saying he is a Russian asset, I'm saying he sat on his asset when he was supposed to be confronting Putin.
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Post by Bishop149 » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 16:28

Tamina wrote:This seems hasty. Why would Russia use poison that has written their name all over it? They are a lot but not stupid.

Why would Russia do that again? What do they gain by killing a double agent in a publicity stunt that damages their relations deeply with other important nations, again? I am surprised Putin didn't kill him personally with a Russian flag on a stage.
I think that was entirely the point.
There are plenty of ways of bumping someone off whilst at least attempting to make it look like a run of the mill accident or murder. This is, as you say, the equivalent of erecting a 20 story fluorescent sign implicating Russia.

What will it cost Putin: Very little.
What will it gain him: Sends a very clear message that enemies of the Russian state can and will be killed, wherever they might be.
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Post by Rive » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 16:41

Tamina wrote:Why would Russia use poison that has written their name all over it?
...
I am surprised Putin didn't kill him personally with a Russian flag on a stage
Clearly, somebody needed it be signed.

Given the timing (before the elections) and the fact that it's not the first time when some quite exotic stuff is used against some enemies/traitors of Mother Russia, I tend to accept this as genuine.

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Post by Bishop149 » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 16:56

My favourite example to Russia's exotic assassinations was when they (allegedly) used intercepted satellite communications to both identify and locate the target and then sent a missile to the source of the satellite signal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Dudayev
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Post by Antilogic » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 16:57

> Clear Indications of Russian involvement and intent. Clear evidence, past history.

> Egosoft Off-Topic: False Flag.

:lol:

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Post by pjknibbs » Tue, 13. Mar 18, 18:02

Rive wrote: Clearly, somebody needed it be signed.
Yeah, it's the old "pour encourager les autres" (e.g. "to encourage the others")--this is Putin saying to dissidents and other enemies of himself that "I can get you wherever you travel, so best you just don't betray me in the first place".

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