Russian poisoning

Chips · Post by **Chips** » Thu, 15. Mar 18, 19:57

Hmm, reading my post back, it should say the evidence supporting Litvinenko pointing to Russian (state) involvement was overwhelming.

Sorkvild · Post by **Sorkvild** » Thu, 15. Mar 18, 20:26

Recently I finished reading Aquarium by Victor Suvorov (a former GRU agent who by the way defected to UK) (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/700261.Aquarium) and everything what is happening now was like in the book. Killing a defector serves as an example to other GRU agents thinking about changing fronts. In the book they were showing an execution tape of an ex-GRU agent being burned alive in a furnace - a strong message that all agents were carrying in their minds during the service, am I going to be burned alive?
Book is absolutely worthy if your'e into espinage and secret operations. This one is largely based of Suvorov's story. He also wrote many other interesting books like "Spetsnaz" - where he served prior to his career in GRU.
Actually there is good Polish movie based on Suvorov's Aquiarium, same titled by the way. English subs, not so good video quality, but definitely worth watching. Shows the whole and elaborate process from recruitment to defection and it's consequences.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvs54s9sd-8

Morkonan · Post by **Morkonan** » Thu, 15. Mar 18, 21:25

Thanks, Sorkvild. Will have to take a look for that!

In thinking on this, related to your post, could it be that Putin is actually reasserting his authority over his internal apparatus relative to the upcoming/happening elections?

"Don't dare try anything if you think that this upcoming election represents some sort of opportunity for you to subvert my authority. Look at what happened to these guys who thought they were safe from reprisals..."

Combined with manufacturing an "external threat" to help generate popular support for his reelection, this might have been a perfect maneuver for him, "killing two birds with one stone"... literally.

fiksal · Post by **fiksal** » Thu, 15. Mar 18, 23:07

Olterin wrote: ... Really?? One ticket to Mars please, that radioactive desert might turn out to be less hostile to life than Earth soon™ (God I hope not)

It's hard to put down everything I know and think in something that people would read, but yep, that's real.

This is not even all "official" interpretation of events from what you'd think are "official" news.

My tone was maybe alarming (on purpose), I was conveying the sense that the public in Russia is seeing every day on TV for years now. And there's basically only one news network. I personally cant watch it for too long, it's mind numbing.

I tried to however say that what Kremlin projects through its news and what people think is not necessarily the same either, but the opposition to Putin's view of the world is either very small or very hush hush. Those that are vocal are allowed to exist because they dont make a difference.

There are also people in Russia who while fully support the president, would not be a part of fear mongering, but the same time, the same people would turn and see nothing wrong with situations in Crimea or Donbass.

There's one unique thing to this level of propaganda - it's all over the place. Kremlin seems to lack ideology beyond just "Russian world" and "Putin is Russia". So its message is all over the place from year to year, from who enemy turns out to be this year to who stops being an ally next year.

So, it could be worse, Putin's party could've had a strong ideology. Putin is not Trump and doesnt want to rule nuclear wasteland. Perhaps dont leave for Mars just yet.

pjknibbs · Post by **pjknibbs** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 08:29

Apparently the latest working theory is that the nerve agent was actually carried to the UK by Skripal's daughter Yulia (without her knowledge, presumably)--it was put into something that they then opened when she was at his house. So the actual poisoners never set foot on UK soil!

Olterin · Post by **Olterin** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 12:32

The question then is, how did it pass through border controls undetected?

Post by **UniTrader** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 13:01

simple: they didnt search for a nerve agent of russian origin... pretty obvious since its a pretty obscure stuff, so why train Drug Dogs for it? also not much sense in training them now, because if something like this happens the next time it will be an entirely diffrent substance..

Olterin · Post by **Olterin** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 14:56

You'd think something as dangerous as said nerve agent would require extra packaging to not accidentally get released earlier than intended, no? The nerve agent itself wouldn't be detected, I assumed this much, but either it was recklessly and dangerously packaged, or someone didn't ask the right questions (or do the right checks on luggage).

pjknibbs · Post by **pjknibbs** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 16:32

Olterin wrote:You'd think something as dangerous as said nerve agent would require extra packaging to not accidentally get released earlier than intended, no?

That's presuming the Russians cared the nerve agent was released early. I mean, what's the worst that can happen from their point of view? Yulia Skripal dies and her father doesn't. It's still a pretty darned big "DON'T MESS WITH US" message, and they obviously don't care about innocent lives because plenty of non-targets got hurt in the successful attack!

Antilogic · Post by **Antilogic** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 17:09

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43433552

Nikolai Glushkov now confirmed to have been murdered.

Rive · Post by **Rive** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 18:08

Olterin wrote:You'd think something as dangerous as said nerve agent would require extra packaging to not accidentally get released earlier than intended, no? The nerve agent itself wouldn't be detected, I assumed this much, but either it was recklessly and dangerously packaged, or someone didn't ask the right questions (or do the right checks on luggage).

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-chemi ... 01213.html

red assassin · Post by **red assassin** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 18:16

I mean, put it inside a sealed drinks bottle, or a contact version inside something giftwrapped, etc etc. Swiping something like that out of her luggage, treating it and re-sealing it without it being obvious should be easy under the circumstances, and it's not like border control is in the business of unsealing and testing every object in every item of luggage that passes through for anything, much less a little-known nerve agent. And as pjk says, if there's a bit of collateral, never mind!

Morkonan · Post by **Morkonan** » Fri, 16. Mar 18, 19:48

UniTrader wrote:simple: they didnt search for a nerve agent of russian origin... pretty obvious since its a pretty obscure stuff, so why train Drug Dogs for it? also not much sense in training them now, because if something like this happens the next time it will be an entirely diffrent substance..

Dogs don't need to be trained in order for them to detect this substance. When the dog dies, you know they have detected it...

/boggle

One just doesn't make a weapon that can't be used. A small, lethal, does of a nerve agent isn't difficult to transport or hide, especially if the full strength of a modern nation is behind it.

This isn't "drug smuggling," it's assassination. Components didn't even need to be transported by courier, they could have been hidden in a commercial shipment of shaving cream, weed killer, cartridges for "whipped cream" canisters, etc.. And, because it only takes a very small amount, there's no need for some continuing conspiracy to be maintained - The entire power of a state's intelligence agency could be brought to bear to ensure that a one-time shipment of one tiny, minuscule, item gets from Point A to Point B. It could have even been very easily transported by diplomatic courier, hidden in what looks like an ink-pen.

A few diplomatic couriers, walking a little strangely, could have smuggled enough of this stuff to off quite a few people... (ie: "rectal courier"

)

Note: For binary/multiple-component compounds, it's just not possible to train dogs to sniff them all out. They'd be hitting on any number of mundane substances. We're surrounded by chemicals. If they cleaned the carpets that day, the dog might go nuts hitting on everything. Someone stepped in toothpaste or has some Miracle Gro on their shoes and gets arrested for transporting... what, exactly? It's highly likely any "professional" packaging containing such compounds would have been assembled in a laboratory clean-room/white-room, with no reasonable possibility of cross-contamination of packaging. One just doesn't make weapons that one can't take to where they need to be used.

Chips · Post by **Chips** » Sat, 17. Mar 18, 14:32

Olterin wrote:The question then is, how did it pass through border controls undetected?

Dogs don't need to be trained in order for them to detect this substance. When the dog dies, you know they have detected it...

When was the last time you got searched at customs? Or even saw a sniffer dog - and if it died it'd be because the substance was open.

A few diplomatic couriers, walking a little strangely, could have smuggled enough of this stuff to off quite a few people...

If it's state sponsored activity, there's no need. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_bag

I'd imagine the "diplomats" expelled by both countries are known employees of the respective states intelligence agencies anyway.

As for searching everyone - it just doesn't happen. Look at what happened when a border did:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23482549

The idea of detecting anything and everything nefarious by customs at a border is ridiculous. The real world doesn't work like that. There may be a few who are nabbed (small time smugglers), but I'd imagine most is intelligence led and/or profiled. Passing security, they're not looking for drugs either - more potential weapons and explosives (hence how the shoe bomber attempt resulted in your shoes being searched).

It is best just to wait and see what they say rather than speculate. I'm sure they'll come up with the way it could have plausibly entered the country.

Also, first I've heard about Julia supposed to have been the carrier. Not read that anywhere, BBC or Guardian/Telegraph/Reuters.

We live in "interesting" times. Putin is going for another 6 year term, the Chinese president has basically enabled himself to have lifelong rule. Erm...

Morkonan · Post by **Morkonan** » Sat, 17. Mar 18, 19:16

Chips wrote:...The idea of detecting anything and everything nefarious by customs at a border is ridiculous...

I agree and that was my roundabout-point.

Couple with the ease that even a novice can slip something through a cursory inspection, some nefarious actor with the apparatus and experience of a State actor should have no problem at all.

And, an unwitting person, who was successfully tricked into carrying something, as suggested earlier, is the perfect sort of courier.

Bishop149 · Post by **Bishop149** » Mon, 19. Mar 18, 11:55

There is a hand held device called the Chemical Agent Monitor (CAM) which is what is commonly used to detect nerve agents in the field. It pretty good and I'm sure most major point of customs/entry into the UK probably have one or two. I seriously doubt however they wave it around unless there was already a strong suspicion / specific threat.
At major public events* where a terrorist attack might be thought likely there might be some more active chemical / bio detection going on, but that's about it for routine public monitoring.

*I was involved in doing this for the Olympics in Sydney back in 2000 . . . . . and no I didn't get to go.

A note on chemical agents, the use of novichok was really very clever.
It all but screams "Russia will kill you!" whilst being very hard to ever actually prove it. Chemical agents are chemicals whose production process is pretty uniform, there are few ways to make them safely and at scale. This means that whoever makes it the substance itself will be essentially identical. No clues here, to pin it on a perpetrator a lot more work will be required, either intelligence or a forensic attempt to track the path the stuff took. The latter I'd suspect to be impossible over any kind of long spatial or temporal range.

This is not true of radiologicals or biologicals. They both usually contain signatures within the agent itself that can all but pinpoint where it came from. In the case of Radiologicals the isotope ratio, impurities or in any idiosyncrasies in any enrichment process can pin the stuff to a specific mine or production facility. Biologicals have very inherited a specific patterns of mutations from the base stock which again can pin it to country or lab.

Morkonan · Post by **Morkonan** » Mon, 19. Mar 18, 21:32

Bishop149 wrote:There is a hand held device called the Chemical Agent Monitor (CAM) which is what is commonly used to detect nerve agents in the field. It pretty good and I'm sure most major point of customs/entry into the UK probably have one or two. I seriously doubt however they wave it around unless there was already a strong suspicion / specific threat.
At major public events* where a terrorist attack might be thought likely there might be some more active chemical / bio detection going on, but that's about it for routine public monitoring.

*I was involved in doing this for the Olympics in Sydney back in 2000 . . . . . and no I didn't get to go. ...

Sorry you didn't get to go.

But, these monitors can only detect certain substances that are airborne. (Gases and particulates in the air) They're not magical, just rely on reacting with these substances to produce a positive result, which sets off the beeping, sqawking, blinking thingies... Some substances are more easily detected than others and all detection relies on environmental and sampling variables.

A properly produced agent in a properly produced container isn't likely to alert sampling devices. It's possible that some improperly contained and transported agents may be more detectable by the trail of unconscious, dying, bodies, than an air-sampling device.

But, they do make people feel safer and make it look like "someone is doing something to protect us," which I think is a bit more to the point.

It's my opinion that a properly sealed and produced container would render the indirect detection of any nerve agent very practically impossible. Considering the assumption that this entire situation was supported, directly, by an advanced nation's government intelligence apparatus... I just don't think anyone could have indirectly detected this substance crossing their borders. Since, to my knowledge, it's not radioactive, with particles flying off every which way, practically impossible to contain without suspicious precautions, this stuff could have walked over anyone's border unnoticed by even the best snoops.

Antilogic · Post by **Antilogic** » Mon, 26. Mar 18, 15:10

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43545565

The United States throws out 60(!) Russian diplomats and closes the Russian consulate in Seattle in response to the attack in the United Kingdom.

Germany also expels 4, other European countries are responding with similar measures.

silenced · Post by **silenced** » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 16:44

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07hx40t

Something interesting from 2016, sadly not available on BBC right now due to re-schedule in the tv broadcast. But searching for "Inside Porton Down" will lead to results available.

The main issue I see right now with the whole situation is: the 'western world' cannot afford to say anything else than 'Russia is guilty', too much glass has been broken already and too many accusations spoken out loudly.

There is only one possible answer to it all, or our NATO and friends are even more noncredible and non reliable than they had been already.

greypanther · Post by **greypanther** » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 17:19

It sounds almost as if you advocating the declaration of war silenced!

Of course I realise you are not in fact doing this and also realise that there is no good, credible answer possible from NATO. The only decent answer to is to withdraw from the World Cup; after all, it is only a game. Doing so would annoy Putin far more than the consequences for Putin so far. In fact his position within Russia is now even stronger!

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Russian poisoning