For the first time, a direct nuclear threat!

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Usenko
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For the first time, a direct nuclear threat!

Post by Usenko » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 07:08

Well, so we in Australia now get to experience what you Americans and Europeans have lived with your whole life.

The North Koreans have told us that they intend to nuke Australia if we "blindly follow America"! So we too enjoy the privilege of being a target for weapons of mass destruction!

Quite apart from my EXTREME scepticism that the North Koreans could actually get a nuclear missile to hit any town in Australia in particular (Or even get a nuclear warhead onto an ICBM at this point), I think KJU's sabre rattling is getting a bit much. . . .
Morkonan wrote:What really happened isn't as exciting. Putin flexed his left thigh during his morning ride on a flying bear, right after beating fifty Judo blackbelts, which he does upon rising every morning. (Not that Putin sleeps, it's just that he doesn't want to make others feel inadequate.)

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Post by pjknibbs » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 07:31

Or even get a nuke of any description to work? Pretty sure the overall opinion is that the tests they've already done have been "fizzles" that didn't go off properly. Still not nice to have a load of radioactive material blown over your city, of course.

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Post by Usenko » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 07:34

Correct, as far as I can see. A fizzle would be more than enough to screw things up for a city, of course, but as far as I can tell the North Koreans seem to be unlikely to have even miniaturised their equipment enough for a fizzle to be portable.
Morkonan wrote:What really happened isn't as exciting. Putin flexed his left thigh during his morning ride on a flying bear, right after beating fifty Judo blackbelts, which he does upon rising every morning. (Not that Putin sleeps, it's just that he doesn't want to make others feel inadequate.)

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Post by philip_hughes » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 07:43

Its almost worth the north Koreans firing something at us. Probability is that it will hit nothing. It will fizzle, making a massive portion of countryside a radioactive no go area- ie wildlife refuge.

In response, everything but the kitchen sink gets chucked at nk. Kim jong un becomes kim jong none. The people will suffer big time but in the end they will be better off.

Whoever wades in MUST win the peace however. It would be a shame to make another Iraq fiasco.
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Post by mrbadger » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 10:06

My worry if NK start firing nukes at people is that fragments of nuclear meaterial will end up spread over the Korean Peninsuler and China. Given their cirrent record no way it will launch succesfully.
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Post by philip_hughes » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 10:50

Actually if a nuke disintegrates properly in the atmosphere it may produce a tritium pulse that we can use to measure the groundwater. The nuke tests in the 50s were quite useful but the tritium has now gone too deep. We need more.
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Post by Usenko » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 12:45

Unlikely - to get an reasonable scattering of material for a tritium pulse you need a proper atmospheric detonation. Just disintegrating on launch (the most likely outcome of an attempted launch) wouldn't cut the mustard.

(Gosh I can't believe we're talking like this!)

Sorry to sound so blasé; I just find it hard to believe there could be a serious exchange from this. Some kind of skirmish is almost inevitable, maybe even a full scale conventional war with the South and North as proxies for everyone[1]. Either of these scenarios would be disastrous in their own right; but I can't see the Americans or anyone else actually using nukes, only the NKs; and as we've been saying, their nukes are almost guaranteed not to work, unless they can pack it into a truck and use a truck bomb.

[1] At this point I can't see Russia or China backing NK. I think they're likely to say "You wanted this war, Un, you're on your own . . ."
Morkonan wrote:What really happened isn't as exciting. Putin flexed his left thigh during his morning ride on a flying bear, right after beating fifty Judo blackbelts, which he does upon rising every morning. (Not that Putin sleeps, it's just that he doesn't want to make others feel inadequate.)

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Post by philip_hughes » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 13:15

Considering kim jong un-believable tells everyone he is so perfectly calibrated he does not need to wee or poo, i think it's safe to assume his grip on reality is the same as the grip a skill tester has on a plush toy. Therefore nukes are in the game. .. somehow.
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Post by Usenko » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 13:30

Hugheslet #1 points out that SOMETIMES the skill tester gets the toy. She therefore deduces that Un's grip on reality is even less than that. ;)

(My kids are getting cynical already . . . )

The question is not whether he's barking mad. The question is whether his scientists and engineers actually have more grip on reality than he does.

Put simply, is his claim to having nuclear weapons about the same as his understanding of his bodily calibration?

One thing's for sure: Even if the BEST estimates of his ICBMs are right, he MIGHT be able to nuke the Cape York Peninsula, but that's about it. Or perhaps Darwin's going to cop it. . . .

So from a delivery perspective, either he thinks we're easily scared, or he has a spoiled-child mentality, or he doesn't realise how bad his capacity is (or where Australia is). :)
Morkonan wrote:What really happened isn't as exciting. Putin flexed his left thigh during his morning ride on a flying bear, right after beating fifty Judo blackbelts, which he does upon rising every morning. (Not that Putin sleeps, it's just that he doesn't want to make others feel inadequate.)

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Post by philip_hughes » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 14:13

They are rigged by the way

Don't worry. Good ol' kim is perfectly calibrated to identify australia or even north Korea on a map.
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Post by mrbadger » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 18:15

I rather doubt even loading a Nuke into a truck would work.

You think every inck of NK isn't under close scrutiny right now?

I rather think it is, especially those places where the Nukes are going to be.

I doubt any truck going there then heading to the border woud complete a crossing. Or even reach the border.
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Post by greypanther » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 19:32

One thing's for sure: Even if the BEST estimates of his ICBMs are right, he MIGHT be able to nuke the Cape York Peninsula, but that's about it.
You are not worried about " state of the art missile launch " from a NK submarine then?

Edit: I would imagine a more likely delivery method for him at the moment, is aboard a ship, probably sailing under another nationalities flag, arriving in a port, then pressing the red button. :roll:
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Post by mrbadger » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 20:09

So we should expect to read in the news about an unexpected undersea explosion in some random bit of sea that leaves no debris and probably upsets a few whales.
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Post by clakclak » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 20:54

Sorry but I am with the North Koreans on this one. Nuke Australia. Their local flora and fauna is a threat to humanity and should be eradicated. Bit messy for the people but nobody in their right mind would live in a country that constantly tries to burn, dehydrate or poisen you.

It's a joke of course.
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Post by Morkonan » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 21:10

clakclak wrote:Sorry but I am with the North Koreans on this one. Nuke Australia. Their local flora and fauna is a threat to humanity and should be eradicated. Bit messy for the people but nobody in their right mind would live in a country that constantly tries to burn, dehydrate or poisen you.

It's a joke of course.
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Kill 'em with fire, I says!

It's not a joke, of course.


PS - By the way, if DPRK launched a nuke, using whatever method (ICBM, Submarine, Truck (I guess they have one), Postal Service, Telepathy), could they actually hit anything worth nuking in Australia? I imagine there are some places that, if nuked, it might take Australians a few years to find out about.

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Post by greypanther » Sun, 23. Apr 17, 23:36

Morkonan wrote: PS - By the way, if DPRK launched a nuke, using whatever method (ICBM, Submarine, Truck (I guess they have one), Postal Service, Telepathy), could they actually hit anything worth nuking in Australia? I imagine there are some places that, if nuked, it might take Australians a few years to find out about.
So how about a ship flying say a Chinese flag, in Port Botany, NSW? A bit far fetched, but it is a busy port and I wonder how close it is to Sydney... From what I have seen of ports, checks are pretty basic and security inadequate. Now all we need is a 40 tonne container aboard that ship, seemingly from a legitimate source, with a what could be quite a large device in it and a mad brainwashed North Korean in it to press the button. Boom! Even a basic nuclear bomb; what damage?

Here this website estimates that 1760 dead pretty much instantly, with a surface detonation in Botany bay harbour, 6150 injuries and an awful lot of fallout. That assuming a 10 KT blast. which the chubby test detonated in 2013. Of course with the huge amount of fallout, the casualty numbers would rise.

Here try the website and different size of warhead, for your self. You can target any city in the world, as well as change several other parameters.
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Post by Usenko » Mon, 24. Apr 17, 11:07

The problem there is that Botany Bay is a pretty sparsely populated area; despite the songs talking about it, it's actually not where Sydney is.

I assumed that they were able to drop their bomb on Martin Place, generally considered the centre of the Sydney CBD. I assumed the most recent detonation gave a true picture of their abilities.

Well, it's ugly - 30,000ish killed, 85,000ish injured.

However, I would STRONGLY doubt the NK's ability to get the warhead here. More than that, I'd even more strongly doubt their motivation to do it. I think "DON'T DO THAT OR WE'LL BOMB YA!" is a petulant tantrum, not really to be taken seriously.
Morkonan wrote:What really happened isn't as exciting. Putin flexed his left thigh during his morning ride on a flying bear, right after beating fifty Judo blackbelts, which he does upon rising every morning. (Not that Putin sleeps, it's just that he doesn't want to make others feel inadequate.)

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Post by Morkonan » Mon, 24. Apr 17, 20:26

greypanther wrote:...So how about a ship flying say a Chinese flag, in Port Botany, NSW? A bit far fetched, but it is a busy port and I wonder how close it is to Sydney... From what I have seen of ports, checks are pretty basic and security inadequate. Now all we need is a 40 tonne container aboard that ship, seemingly from a legitimate source, with a what could be quite a large device in it and a mad brainwashed North Korean in it to press the button. Boom! Even a basic nuclear bomb; what damage?..
There are ways to detect such things. And, certainly, there are ways to escape certain detection methods. "Trojan Horse" delivery methods in busy ports are a major concern in the US and any other seafaring country targeted by terrorists. My assumption is that if it was felt that such an attack was a legitimate threat for Australia, the US and other allies as well as Australia's own security forces would do all they could to provide advanced detection and intel.

DPRK has been able to circumvent embargoes/trade restrictions involving all sorts of things, including weapons, using some crafty container and container-ship "juggling" in the past.

But, despite DPRK threats, I think KJU&Co are fully aware that such an act would be met with terrifying reprisals ending with KJU becoming nothing more than a bad memory. It's not a case of M.A.D., though, it's a case of one DPRK attack setting in motion the end of the DPRK.

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