mrbadger wrote:Is anyone definitely sure he was assassinated?
Assassination is notoriously hard to pull off and get away with these days, so much so that most major powers with any grasp of current realities simply won't bother with it.
Only if that major power care. It depends on several factors:
- Does it feel like it will give those who wanted to attack it anyway a reason to start. Say like Saddam, he knew half of the world probably want a piece of his country already, better not giving anyone an excuse.
- Does it try to maintain a good boy image: say like the US and most European, because we're afraid of diplomatic consequence and such. The US never could completely live down its attempt on Castro for example, but that only because it cares enough about not repeat that shenanigan.
Neither of this apply to North Korean.
- There is nothing to gain for anyone to get involved with it, a cesshole with little resource with a large indoctrinated-malnourished nation. Aside from the usual saber-rattleing, if nobody does anything when they testing nuke or fly missile, or even sinking a South Korean ship, nobody gonna care if they assassinated one of their own. It may make a sensible headline because of that 007 sensation, but think about it objectively, it's rather insignificant.
- Its image can't get any worse, and there is little more you can punish it saved for outright military action, which like I said nobody want. So you're either like NK when you think it can't get any worse. It could also be when you're too damn big you don't give a crap about what other think about you anyway, and the consequence facing you is much smaller than the consequence of those who want to face you. Say like Russia, did you forget the assassination of Alexander Valterovich Litvinenko?
You think this way because you're using the standard of where you live, but from other part of the world, you'll be suprise how "not" rare something like this is, in fact my generation already witness 3 counting just my own country doing alone, and I'm not even half way through life yet. This is simply a high profile case because everyone know fat Kim, but where I came from I would almost pass this as "politic as usual".