Scottish Independence

[Tsar_of_Cows]

We discuss a lot of issues on here, so here's a thorny one that I want to talk about: The Independence of Scotland.

As a Scottish born (but not particularly raised) person, I find the whole issue quite fascinating as it impacts me directly. I'm at once thrilled and terrified by the possibilities.

On one hand, Independence could be an exceedingly good thing for everyone concerned. Let's face it, England is right wing, Conservative (with a small and large 'C') and generally still stinging from the loss of Empire. Scotland on the other hand is positively socialist, egalitarian and determined to forge it's own path ('FREEEEEEEEEEEEDOOOOOOOOOOOM!').

If Scotland gets independence then politically this is a boon for both countries as England gets the Conservatives till the end of time, which according to election results they want, and Scotland gets SNP till the end of time, which we want.

Economically the English like to shoot us down, assured in the knowledge that London is the Financial Capital of the universe. This may be true, but Edinburgh is also one of the big financial cities and Scotland hasn't hung up it's manufacturing heritage, we still make things, including computers and software. Infact, acording to Wikipedia, Scotland produces 28% of Europe's computers. That's astonishing for a nation of circa 5 million people!

Then ofcourse there is the oil. And as any knowledgeable Scot can tell you, it's our oil but Thatcher stole it. If I go to the shore line from where I live (Aberdeen) and look out over the North Sea, in the distance I see English Waters, since Thatcher gerrymandered the borders to try and bugger Scottish calls for independence. We need those waters back, and once we get them, and the oil, Scotland is, after Russia, Europe's biggest provider of oil. And yes, the oil output has peaked, but the actual monetary value of it hasn't; as oil prices rise, even though there's less left, the amount left in the North Sea now is worth more than all the oil previously extracted!

But things could also go terribly wrong. We do get a lot of money from Westminster (though not as much as we put back in tax), and if we can't get the waters back, we're in a spot of bother. Also the oil won't last forever, so we need to invest heavily in renewable energy (and due to the high winds and extreme coast line, Scotland has the chance to become a renewable energy provider, we've already sweat talked China into building wind farms here). We'd also lose the political weight of the UK, but you know what? Screw that! If I was taking Scotland into an independent future I'd declare neutrality and concentrate on solving my own problems rather than invading people on the other side of the planet.


So my position is this - I would like Scottish independence - Scotland is being neglected under London rule (and make no mistake, the government doesn't give a flying f**k about anything outside of London), and Scotland has the opportunity to go very far indeed. Even with our tiny population, we're a manufacturing powerhouse, and if we continue to nurture that, and our education system (which is historically incredible - Scotland was the first nation since Sparta to make education compulsory), we could be a world economic and intellectual leader.

There are however, lots of issues which need to be addressed - for example, does Scotland become a republic or retain the Queen? Or even appoint one of the descendants for the last King to the Scottish throne!? (Fun story - I actually met a pretender to the Scottish Throne. He was gay, which isn't terribly helpful if you want to restart a monarchy! ) Add to that the oil question. Then throw in the economic future - in 20-30 years the oil will run dry. And the whole deal is full of uncertainties.

What do others think on the issue? Particularly the English? I did have an interesting chat with a BT engineer whilst I was swanning about in Birmingham (training BT engineers), and I got the impression that the English generally think "well whatever the Scottish want to do is fine, I'm not bothered".

[Nick Northern]

I am American and my wife is Canadian. We live in Canada. Here in Canada, people are proud of their independence, and yet are also proud of their English ties and the fact that Canada is still part of the British Commonwealth. Being American and not having a good background in Canadian independence causation and politics, I am not sure how Canada's situation differs from that of Scotland. I do think there maybe some interesting similarities between these two examples though.

As an outsider, with some background in Economics and Psychology, I would say that a majority of Scottish opinion being that Scotland should become independent, is not enough to make it independent. Historically, British colonies either had to make themselves more trouble than they were worth, or to give something to get independence. If Scotland wants independence, I think they will have to go down one of those two routes. Perhaps giving England that oil in return may show fruit, but then it does leave Scotland in the hole Economically.

[InFlamesForEver]

TBH I just have the attitude of if you want to do it do it but don't come crying back if it all goes horribly wrong.

Although on the other hand I have always thought it rather silly to have 3 countries on one small island but that's just me.

[Tsar_of_Cows]

I am American and my wife is Canadian. We live in Canada. Here in Canada, people are proud of their independence, and yet are also proud of their English ties and the fact that Canada is still part of the British Commonwealth. Being American and not having a good background in Canadian independence causation and politics, I am not sure how Canada's situation differs from that of Scotland. I do think there maybe some interesting similarities between these two examples though.

As an outsider, with some background in Economics and Psychology, I would say that a majority of Scottish opinion being that Scotland should become independent, is not enough to make it independent. Historically, British colonies either had to make themselves more trouble than they were worth, or to give something to get independence. If Scotland wants independence, I think they will have to go down one of those two routes. Perhaps giving England that oil in return may show fruit, but then it does leave Scotland in the hole Economically.

It's not quite the same situation. For one thing the British Empire ist Kaput!

Basically if Scotland votes in the upcoming referendum for independence then we'll negotiate with England over the terms and then become a separate sovereign nation (at the moment Scotland is a separate country but not a sovereign nation). It's not so much about making ourselves into a pain in the backside or having a war and more about voting and what people want. If we voted for independence and England denied it... I don't know what would happen, that's virtually inconceivable at the moment. For one thing it'd be an unheard of return to imperialism, for another thing the Conservative party have the most influence in government at the moment and it's politically advantageous for them if Scotland becomes independent; Historically the only way for the left wing parties to win is for northern and Scottish support.

Having said that, a vote for independence doesn't legally force Westminster to accept it! Any bill for Scottish independence would still have to be signed into law in Westminster like any other law. I'm not entirely sure how that would work, given that the only party that supports it is the SNP, but again, I'd expect the precedent (which is basically the unwritten constitution) would dictate that they would have to vote with the Scottish people. If Scotland voted for independence and England/Westminster voted against or failed to vote, it would basically be a constitutional crisis.

TBH I just have the attitude of if you want to do it do it but don't come crying back if it all goes horribly wrong.

And that's just it - if it goes wrong, well we'll have to deal with it. But there isn't really any indication (at the moment) that Scotland is incapable of running itself. In fact there's a strong economic case in Scotland's favor.

[InFlamesForEver]

I have to ask this but what would the difference be?
I mean you already run everything but now you have a little more stability, or am I wrong on that?
I have little time for politics as I am more interested in studying and of course gaming lol

[Avis]

The one REAL sticking point that never gets raised in relation to Scottish independence is the one that would prove utterly catastrophic for Scotland and that is the UK's national debt and Scotland's share of it, just because Scotland goes it alone doesn't mean it gets off with it's share of the bill.

I've heard Scots babble crap like 'Scotland went into the union without a national debt it will leave the union without a national debt' erm no sorry, Scotland was bankrupt prior to union and besides that debt since joining the union has also been enjoyed north of the border.
The exact share of debt is debatable, but no realistic formula is what you might call a happy time for Scotland even if 90+% of north sea oil was handed over along with independence.

When Ireland broke off from the union it too inherited an immense chunk of the UK national debt, but Winston Churchill chose to waver it so as to have a healthy neighbour instead of a basket case I can't see that being repeated for Scotland frankly.

[Tsar_of_Cows]

I have to ask this but what would the difference be?
I mean you already run everything but now you have a little more stability, or am I wrong on that?
I have little time for politics as I am more interested in studying and of course gaming lol

The difference is that Scotland doesn't actually control everything, it still has a lot dictated to it by Westminster. Basically Scotland has some control over what to spend money on, but no control over taxes, defense, foreign policy, currency, etc. This means that if England declares war (as happened in Iraq, Afghanistan) Scotland has to comply and send soldiers. If England raises taxes, Scotland has no choice, as HMRC collects them. If England decides to shoot itself in the foot with European relations (as happened recently) Scotland has to sit here and take the blame as well.

If Scotland was independent, it would gain control over it's own military, foreign policy and taxation levels, becoming a sovereign nation. We'd go from having control over certain things to having control over everything. There's a big difference.

The difference is like working for yourself or working for somebody else. When you work for somebody else, you give them labor and they pay you for it, you then get to spend that money. If you work for yourself, you get to decide what you work on, how much you charge, as well as what to spend that money on.

The one REAL sticking point that never gets raised in relation to Scottish independence is the one that would prove utterly catastrophic for Scotland and that is the UK's national debt and Scotland's share of it, just because Scotland goes it alone doesn't mean it gets off with it's share of the bill.

I've heard Scots babble crap like 'Scotlana went into the union without a national debt it will leave the union without a national debt' erm no sorry, Scotland was bankrupt prior to union and besides that debt since joining the union has also been enjoyed north of the border.
The exact share of debt is debatable, but no realistic formula is what you might call a happy time for Scotland even if 90+% of north sea oil was handed over along with independence.

When Ireland broke off from the union it too inherited an immense chunk of the UK national debt, but Winston Churchill chose to waver it so as to have a healthy neighbour instead of a basket case I can't see that being repeated for Scotland frankly.

This is the other issue which I failed to mention (I also failed to pour gin correctly earlier, so bare with me!). Scotland would have to take a share of the UK's debt, but this isn't necessarily a problem for Scotland; remember that Scotland is running at a surplus rather than a deficit (we aren't necessarily benefiting from that debt!!!), so it's in a stronger position than the UK as a whole which is running up even more debt whilst paying current debts. Also Scotland would gain control of it's own currency which is one of those nice little get-out clauses for nations in debt, giving us the option to devalue currency (rather than just cut spending/ or keep spending as the dilemma).

If the UK is a AAA rated country in a good position to service it's debt, then i fail to see how Scotland, which runs at a surplus and has afore mentioned strong economic foundations, is in a poor position to pay back it's debt. Unless Scotland was handed an unfair proportion of debt by Westminster... which i wouldn't put past the Conservatives to be fair.

[Antilogic]

I am half scottish/half english.

I'm kinda against it.

Basicly, I think either way Scotland isn't going to get what it wants, and it's really sure what it wants anyway.

If they leave, we divide the kingdom and both sides are weaker as a result. The UK loses some of it's clout and ablity to push on the world stage- tbh this is going to be a lose for Scotland overall, as well as a lose for the UK, basicly I think everyone loses to some degree.

If they stay and get or don't get devolved powers, then clearly they continue still getting the raw end of the deal so to speak, so they lose there as well.

As for myself, if we lived in an idea world I would get rid oif "Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland" and make it all "Britan" in truth. I consider myself British, not Scottish or English and I think continuing to divide one of the smallest realestates on the planet over 100's of years, 1000's of years old dividing lines is pointless. There are chavs in London and there are chavs in Glasgow.

But we don't live in an idea world and I think if anyone seriously suggested that someone would go on a stupid patriotic cruscade and start killing people, so whatever. Scotland, your in a lose lose situtation here, best of luck, please don't do anything too stupid.

[InFlamesForEver]

I am half scottish/half english.

I'm kinda against it.

Basicly, I think either way Scotland isn't going to get what it wants, and it's really sure what it wants anyway.

If they leave, we divide the kingdom and both sides are weaker as a result. The UK loses some of it's clout and ablity to push on the world stage- tbh this is going to be a lose for Scotland overall, as well as a lose for the UK, basicly I think everyone loses to some degree.

If they stay and get or don't get devolved powers, then clearly they continue still getting the raw end of the deal so to speak, so they lose there as well.

As for myself, if we lived in an idea world I would get rid oif "Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland" and make it all "Britan" in truth. I consider myself British, not Scottish or English and I think continuing to divide one of the smallest realestates on the planet over 100's of years, 1000's of years old dividing lines is pointless. There are chavs in London and there are chavs in Glasgow.

But we don't live in an idea world and I think if anyone seriously suggested that someone would go on a stupid patriotic cruscade and start killing people, so whatever. Scotland, your in a lose lose situtation here, best of luck, please don't do anything too stupid.

You mean an IDEAL world.

Yeah that is my point of view exactly, why do we have 4 countries in such a small space?
I can understand Ireland but not the other 2, sort of Scotland because of the Romans but not Wales at all.

[Avis]

..
If the UK is a AAA rated country in a good position to service it's debt, then i fail to see how Scotland, which runs at a surplus and has afore mentioned strong economic foundations, is in a poor position to pay back it's debt. Unless Scotland was handed an unfair proportion of debt by Westminster... which i wouldn't put past the Conservatives to be fair.

The net flow of cash north or south is debatable to say the least, however assuming the claimed surplus even, if Scotland inherited a proportional chunk of the UK's national debt that surplus would be more than wiped out by the debt repayments.

The idea of playing with currency to fudge the levels of national debt also leads towards that AAA rating going the way of dodo and Republic of Ireland territory when those aforementioned debt repayment interest rates go up further.

As for what is a unfair proportion of the debt, it would be based on economic factors (which include who gets the oil and gas) rather than population which would be incredibly unfair to Scotland really.

[Golden_Gonads]

Think of how an Independant Scotland would look on the foreign stage:

As it stands at the moment, Scotland as a part of the UK is a fair sized power on the world stage, well past its prime, with delusions of past grandeur, but still capable of packing a wallop on occasion. Split from the UK, and you'll be known as "That quaint little place where Braveheart was set".

[vukica]

Independece is good...

I really can't see future for any multinational state.
GB, Spain, Belgium, Turkey, China, Iraq, Russia even...
Everyone has to blend, or the country has to fall appart (separate like Czechoslovakia).
History tought us that much... has to happen, better sooner than later.

And no, that doesn't mean wars and shit, it just means more different opinions in the UN/EU and where ever...

Basicaly, Scotland is a modern country with stable institutions and decent economy and industry.
And national pride which is important....
So why not?

Think of how an Independant Scotland would look on the foreign stage:

As it stands at the moment, Scotland as a part of the UK is a fair sized power on the world stage, well past its prime, with delusions of past grandeur, but still capable of packing a wallop on occasion. Split from the UK, and you'll be known as "That quaint little place where Braveheart was set".

arrogant english clarkson.

[InFlamesForEver]

Think of how an Independant Scotland would look on the foreign stage:

As it stands at the moment, Scotland as a part of the UK is a fair sized power on the world stage, well past its prime, with delusions of past grandeur, but still capable of packing a wallop on occasion. Split from the UK, and you'll be known as "That quaint little place where Braveheart was set".

Nah, known as the birthplace of the deep fried mars bar, or as me and my friends know it as "food poisoning in an artery clogging disguise!"

[Golden_Gonads]

Think of how an Independant Scotland would look on the foreign stage:

As it stands at the moment, Scotland as a part of the UK is a fair sized power on the world stage, well past its prime, with delusions of past grandeur, but still capable of packing a wallop on occasion. Split from the UK, and you'll be known as "That quaint little place where Braveheart was set".

arrogant english clarkson.

Is it? Just how do you believe Scotland is percieved on the international stage? It hasn't had a strong voice since the begining of the 19th century, and its achievements have been swallowed up and amalgamated into part of the UK's as a whole. Alright, I grant you, you are also known as the home of whisky, but I'd wager most Americans (As an example, and by no means limited to them) will not have made the connection between "Scotch" and "Scotland".



As for your net positive income, that would drop significantly starting immediately. After all, an independant Scotland will require new import/export tax laws, and won't (I assume) be eligible for all the EU tax breaks/subsidies it currently gets. I suppose it could tie itself to the EU and the Euro, but I doubt with its current percieved state that the Scottish public would go for that. Not to mention all manner of unexpected new expenses...


As it stands, I'd say that if you'd voted for and achieved devolution prior to the recession, you may have been able to pull it off (Except of course the recession would have hit anyway, and you'd be well and truly up the creek). As it stands, as a realistic endeavour, independence is a pipe-dream at best for the next decade - Even in a theoretical/preparatory/planning stage.



Edit: Pesky internet, causing me to post before I was done mumbling...

[Avis]

Part of me would love to see the Union stick together but, if Scotland wants to do it's own thing I'm not opposed to it either, I love Scotland (except it's highland midge) have friends and family there but I just don't see Independence as being viable economically beyond the initial honeymoon period at least while the oil and gas lasts.

Ultimately it will end up going to a referendum sooner or later and to be honest I don't think the Scottish people will vote to leave the union, I think there are plenty who would vote to leave but not enough imho.

[Chips]

It would be very interesting to know what the actual benefits for each would be What the actual costs will be, what the result will be - and with full information, whether people would be for or against.

As for Oil, if this was taken out the equation I would be fairly certain there would be a lot less appetite for independence

It wouldn't bother me much whatsoever. I am fairly certain there would be incredibly strong ties between the England and Scotland whatever happened. It would, however, be weird if we had to show passports when driving up north
I would also be surprised if Scotland paid up for a real defence force. Surely there would be an agreement with England where we would provide most of the technology as initial outlay would be huge otherwise (for Scotland, i mean... how could you pay for necessary aircraft carriers and £150 million planes? )

[Rednoahl]

I'll be seeing a few Scots later today, and I'm fairly sure they don't want to leave the union. The reason for that is they want Rangers to have a shot in the English league. Their opinions on politics are pretty much the same as mine.

My own opinion is that if Scotland does go it alone, it will become communist country within about ten years led by a "cult of personality" guy like George Galliway with a chip on his shoulder. I doubt the neighbours will be pleased.

[vukica]

Is it? Just how do you believe Scotland is percieved on the international stage?

It is perceived as an independet nation with rich history.
A nation in union with three others under the formal rule of the queen.

As a sovereign completely independet country Scotland would have a chance to form it's own image to the world.

Well, whatever happends, it's only up to the scotish people to decide about their nations future.

Everyone else (both in England and rest of the world) just have to accept their decision, whatever it is. If the choose full independece, they should be supported in their quest. If not, they should be supported in whatever they need.

[Usenko]

Is it? Just how do you believe Scotland is percieved on the international stage?

It is perceived as an independet nation with rich history.
A nation in union with three others under the formal rule of the queen.

As a sovereign completely independet country Scotland would have a chance to form it's own image to the world.

Well, whatever happends, it's only up to the scotish people to decide about their nations future.

Everyone else (both in England and rest of the world) just have to accept their decision, whatever it is. If the choose full independece, they should be supported in their quest. If not, they should be supported in whatever they need.

Scotland is perceived, in Australia as a minor part of England.

Note that we've got a lot of shared history here! So if we don't tend to see Scotland as a separate entity, you've got little hope of being taken seriously elsewhere.

It doesn't really affect me one way or another, but my advice to Scotland is to accept the status quo - you really gain more than you lose from the Union, from a distance - but to push for greater self-government within the Union.

[vukica]

Scotland is perceived, in Australia as a minor part of England.

Note that we've got a lot of shared history here! So if we don't tend to see Scotland as a separate entity, you've got little hope of being taken seriously elsewhere.

It doesn't really affect me one way or another, but my advice to Scotland is to accept the status quo - you really gain more than you lose from the Union, from a distance - but to push for greater self-government within the Union.

That's just a lack of education and proper information. Scotland is not, never was, and hopefuly never will be a part of England.

Also, Scotish independece may have many different forms, and it does not neccesarily include separation from the united kingdom. It could only mean more power for scottish parliament. Separate army, tax and financial system, education system, health care, etc.

If decisions about Scotland are made in Edinbrugh, that shouldn't be bad for Scotland. Or England, or United Kingdom.