Russian poisoning

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Bishop149
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Post by Bishop149 » Mon, 19. Mar 18, 11:55

There is a hand held device called the Chemical Agent Monitor (CAM) which is what is commonly used to detect nerve agents in the field. It pretty good and I'm sure most major point of customs/entry into the UK probably have one or two. I seriously doubt however they wave it around unless there was already a strong suspicion / specific threat.
At major public events* where a terrorist attack might be thought likely there might be some more active chemical / bio detection going on, but that's about it for routine public monitoring.

*I was involved in doing this for the Olympics in Sydney back in 2000 . . . . . and no I didn't get to go. :cry:

A note on chemical agents, the use of novichok was really very clever.
It all but screams "Russia will kill you!" whilst being very hard to ever actually prove it. Chemical agents are chemicals whose production process is pretty uniform, there are few ways to make them safely and at scale. This means that whoever makes it the substance itself will be essentially identical. No clues here, to pin it on a perpetrator a lot more work will be required, either intelligence or a forensic attempt to track the path the stuff took. The latter I'd suspect to be impossible over any kind of long spatial or temporal range.

This is not true of radiologicals or biologicals. They both usually contain signatures within the agent itself that can all but pinpoint where it came from. In the case of Radiologicals the isotope ratio, impurities or in any idiosyncrasies in any enrichment process can pin the stuff to a specific mine or production facility. Biologicals have very inherited a specific patterns of mutations from the base stock which again can pin it to country or lab.
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Morkonan
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Post by Morkonan » Mon, 19. Mar 18, 21:32

Bishop149 wrote:There is a hand held device called the Chemical Agent Monitor (CAM) which is what is commonly used to detect nerve agents in the field. It pretty good and I'm sure most major point of customs/entry into the UK probably have one or two. I seriously doubt however they wave it around unless there was already a strong suspicion / specific threat.
At major public events* where a terrorist attack might be thought likely there might be some more active chemical / bio detection going on, but that's about it for routine public monitoring.

*I was involved in doing this for the Olympics in Sydney back in 2000 . . . . . and no I didn't get to go. :cry: ...
Sorry you didn't get to go. :(

But, these monitors can only detect certain substances that are airborne. (Gases and particulates in the air) They're not magical, just rely on reacting with these substances to produce a positive result, which sets off the beeping, sqawking, blinking thingies... Some substances are more easily detected than others and all detection relies on environmental and sampling variables.

A properly produced agent in a properly produced container isn't likely to alert sampling devices. It's possible that some improperly contained and transported agents may be more detectable by the trail of unconscious, dying, bodies, than an air-sampling device.

But, they do make people feel safer and make it look like "someone is doing something to protect us," which I think is a bit more to the point.

It's my opinion that a properly sealed and produced container would render the indirect detection of any nerve agent very practically impossible. Considering the assumption that this entire situation was supported, directly, by an advanced nation's government intelligence apparatus... I just don't think anyone could have indirectly detected this substance crossing their borders. Since, to my knowledge, it's not radioactive, with particles flying off every which way, practically impossible to contain without suspicious precautions, this stuff could have walked over anyone's border unnoticed by even the best snoops.

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Post by Antilogic » Mon, 26. Mar 18, 15:10

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43545565

The United States throws out 60(!) Russian diplomats and closes the Russian consulate in Seattle in response to the attack in the United Kingdom.

Germany also expels 4, other European countries are responding with similar measures.

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Post by silenced » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 16:44

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07hx40t

Something interesting from 2016, sadly not available on BBC right now due to re-schedule in the tv broadcast. But searching for "Inside Porton Down" will lead to results available.


The main issue I see right now with the whole situation is: the 'western world' cannot afford to say anything else than 'Russia is guilty', too much glass has been broken already and too many accusations spoken out loudly.

There is only one possible answer to it all, or our NATO and friends are even more noncredible and non reliable than they had been already.
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Post by greypanther » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 17:19

It sounds almost as if you advocating the declaration of war silenced! :o

Of course I realise you are not in fact doing this and also realise that there is no good, credible answer possible from NATO. The only decent answer to is to withdraw from the World Cup; after all, it is only a game. Doing so would annoy Putin far more than the consequences for Putin so far. In fact his position within Russia is now even stronger!
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Post by matthewfarmery » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 17:54

I think cancelling the world cup would be a major step in the right direction, I know a bit off topic, but, I don't think Russia really deserved to win hosting this. Plus you just have to look at the Russian athletes that that took part in the winter Olympics, quite of few of them got disqualified due to cheating / drug taking. And they were independents, because Russia were banned outright from taking part. So to me, Russia can't be trusted, not its government, and not the people doing the sport events. so yeah, boycott the games, and cann it for next time, as Russia shouldn't be hosting it.
=

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Post by Chips » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 19:31

The problem with boycotting the games is that you're punishing the fans and the athletes over political affairs they have zero input on.

I'd imagine it's too close to the date to put hosting anywhere else for starters (trips booked, hotels not prepared etc), and furthermore, you're once again politicising sports.

Have no "officials" (high ranking government officials) attend. But let the sport continue.

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Post by silenced » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 19:54

@greypanther

Just imagine the result of the investigation and analysis is, that the toxin is NOT from Russia and Russia is not involved. How would the world look at Europe and Great Britain?


The damage this would cause is so high, there can only be one answer.


Not to forget, there are also rumors about the victim being part of some friendship with people close to Trump and some affairs in that direction.


I somehow lost track of it all the last few days, it's hard to distinct between what could be true or what could be false. :gruebel:


But from an independent view: What would Russia gain from doing something like that? Exactly nothing, except trouble beyond no repair. Cui bono?
... what is a drop of rain, compared to the storm? ... what is a thought, compared to the mind? ... our unity is full of wonder which your tiny individualism cannot even conceive ... I've heard it all before ... you're saying nothing new ... I thought I saw a rainbow ... but I guess it wasn't true ... you cannot make me listen ... I cannot make you hear ... you find your way to heaven ... I'll meet you when you're there ...

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Post by Chips » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 20:15

silenced wrote: What would Russia gain from doing something like that? Exactly nothing, except trouble beyond no repair.
1) Why do you assume Russia gets "nothing" from this? If you look at all Russian actions, they're literally testing the west repeatedly and continuously. Where do the limits stand? But furthermore, fear and intimidation won't work if you then say "well, we make threats but can't carry it out". It's a damned powerful message to send that "Cross us and you're not safe, regardless of where you are and international relations... there's no cost too high, we will get you". That's a VERY powerful message.

2) Russia (if it is guilty) has certainly been rewarded by inaction over very bellicose actions into other state's matters in recent years... why do you believe they wouldn't be emboldened to try again; nothing has really happened before?

- US Elections.
- Syria
- Alexander Litvinenko
- Seizing individuals from within another sovereign nations territory (Estonia)
- Ukraine
- Crimea (Sanctions in place, had no effect)
- South Osseita

Litvinenko is just one of a number of Russians who've died in the UK in often "mysterious" circumstances, some of which are now being investigated again to see if something was missed. No presumption is made over whether it was murder or natural causes, but there have been a fair number after all...

Is Russia guilty of the current scenario - wait and find out I guess. But history has shown what inaction can happen - and history has certainly showed us what can happen when tyrants are emboldened by the lack of response ... they don't think "whew", they up the ante further until they reach a point.

Ever considered they've now discovered one of those "points"? Nothing to gain indeed... and we've seen how long "trouble beyond no repair" lasts. We knew for sure about Litvinenko, guess how long sanctions lasted and how much "damage" it did? The difference is this time the UK has seemed to garner international support for counter actions, but so far it's just expelling a few people. Hardly the end of the world is it. Meanwhile it's sent a very strong message to any "enemies within".

So far this has shown just how little we can really do about it; what, precisely, has hurt Russia so far about this incident? "Diplomatic reputation" - I kind of doubt that :P

"Nothing to gain" indeed... so far it shows we're impotent - and I don't think there's much that can be done about that. Unless proper sanctions are taken, but I'd imagine that'll require the evidence people demand. So far it's just a few people sent home. We'll have more people sent home during the World Cup :D :D

Bottom line Russia are sending a very strong message to their own population - at home or abroad. After all, dictators don't fear other nation's citizens - they fear their own... and this is a message to ensure that.

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Post by Tamina » Tue, 27. Mar 18, 20:52

Chips wrote:
silenced wrote: What would Russia gain from doing something like that? Exactly nothing, except trouble beyond no repair.
1) Why do you assume Russia gets "nothing" from this? If you look at all Russian actions, they're literally testing the west repeatedly and continuously. Where do the limits stand?
Both sites are rattling with their chains all the time. The western society has a deeply-anchored image of an "Evil Russian". Probably originated from hundreds of years of propaganda in WW2 and during the Cold War.
A society that has recently moved close to the russian border with Ukraine where groups of national extremists have formed.
Chips wrote:2) Russia (if it is guilty) has certainly been rewarded by inaction over very bellicose actions into other state's matters in recent years... why do you believe they wouldn't be emboldened to try again; nothing has really happened before?
As every other state as well. The argument is correct, yes; sadly.
The world community is very self centered all together. There is not a definitive good or evil side; everybody is trying to defend his ideals.
Chips wrote:But history has shown what inaction can happen - and history has certainly showed us what can happen when tyrants are emboldened by the lack of response ... they don't think "whew", they up the ante further until they reach a point.
Quite paradoxal, isn't it?
When in doubt for the accused. Instead of stressing the relationship I would advise Britain to increase their security efforts - as dumb as that sounds.

Actions like this happened before, you know. In WW1 and WW2, soldiers fought under false flags or sank ships in allied territory to bring them up against each other. It is a valid strategy and the world is the playground.

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Post by Morkonan » Wed, 28. Mar 18, 00:08

Chips wrote:The problem with boycotting the games is that you're punishing the fans and the athletes over political affairs they have zero input on....
^--- This.

Boycotting sporting events has never, ever, been viewed well by the public. It's generally considered, practically, "unsportsmanlike."

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Post by greypanther » Wed, 28. Mar 18, 00:14

Morkonan wrote: Boycotting sporting events has never, ever, been viewed well by the public.
Your knowledge of " the public " is very impressive Morkonan, how did you gain such all encompassing knowledge? :P

I seem to remember such things happening in the past and on the whole, most didn't seem to give a **** one way or the other! :roll:
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Post by Morkonan » Wed, 28. Mar 18, 00:32

greypanther wrote:
Morkonan wrote: Boycotting sporting events has never, ever, been viewed well by the public.
Your knowledge of " the public " is very impressive Morkonan, how did you gain such all encompassing knowledge? :P

I seem to remember such things happening in the past and on the whole, most didn't seem to give a **** one way or the other! :roll:
I am all knowing, all seeing, ever wise....

/sigh

No, I don't know everything. Why not just support your criticism with firm evidence to the contrary.

Here, have some information, it's free:

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/07/19/spor ... ycott.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... 392ec7324/

Here, you can use this in a rebuttal post:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/adst/oly ... 27110.html

There ya go, work done for you, just copy-and-paste, no need to go to Google. Of course, then you may have to offer up an interpretation of contrasting points, which may be difficult, so I will do it for you.

"It seems that "the public" may have a more malleable opinion regarding sporting boycotts than Morkonan has suggested."

And, in response, I might post:

"That is true. But, there may be a significant difference in public opinion and perception if, for instance, they regard the boycott as "merely a fairly empty political statement" rather than a protest against a country's policy regarding "human rights." It may be hard, for instance, for an American athlete to appeal to sympathy for their right to compete if they wanted to travel to a country where extensive human rights abuses are the topic of the day."

I am sorry for offending your sensibilities by posting such a firm assertion. I was wrong and I desperately ask for your forgiveness. I'm quite sure I do not know if I can go on without it! I may faint!

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Post by silenced » Wed, 28. Mar 18, 13:53

Chips wrote: - Ukraine
- Crimea (Sanctions in place, had no effect)
- South Osseita

Ukraine did not pay it's debts. What would you do? Still send Gas and Oil? I would not. (As a side note, I like the Ukraine and I'll be there again next week for a couple of days, really nice country.)

Crimea - The Crimea was given to Ukraine by the Ukrainian Soviet Leader Chruschtschow in 1954, who already asked for Crimea as a compensation from Stalin in 1942 when Stalin was asking for more soldiers from Ukraine. Georgian Stalin denied Chruschtschow's wish. According to history records Chruschtschow even said, that one day Crimea will be Ukrainian during that feud with Stalin. Russia only took back what's rightfully theirs and was taken from their country without a good reason, only personal feud between two persons. Go judge by yourself.

South Ossetia - You know the whole story or only what was present in the western media? After the Russian Tsaristic Empire was removed from the board in 1917, Georgia occupied Ossetia in 1918. Georgia was annexed by Soviet Union in 1921 and became part of the SU and the whole region was known as Georgia. In mid-end 1989 Georgia decided that in the current region of Georgia only Georgian people should live. Which lead to unrest among the Ossetian and Abchasian people, and also to a declaration of indepence of Ossetia from Georgia, which was denied, redeclared and so on. The conflicts went on until a cease fire in 2004. September 2005 was when Georgia used mortars to shell Ossetia's capital Zchinwali. This is when the Russians finally made their (military) move.


Lots of politics in the former Soviet Union were done by politicians that were not even Russian and did most harm to Russia itself. And even today, lots of people think that Russia = Soviet Union. If you finally stop to compare Soviet Union and Russia as being the same states, you may finally start to understand the differences, and maybe get an more open view on it all.
... what is a drop of rain, compared to the storm? ... what is a thought, compared to the mind? ... our unity is full of wonder which your tiny individualism cannot even conceive ... I've heard it all before ... you're saying nothing new ... I thought I saw a rainbow ... but I guess it wasn't true ... you cannot make me listen ... I cannot make you hear ... you find your way to heaven ... I'll meet you when you're there ...

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Post by Chips » Fri, 30. Mar 18, 19:23

I literally cannot understand your opinion.

1) Ukraine being the Russia backed separatists continuing to "fight", shoot down passenger planes with Russian supplied hardware (killing 274 civilians) and so on - after Russia having invaded Crimea despite having signed a declaration treaty backing the Ukraine's independence. That is what I mean by Ukraine, not natural gas quibbles... but given your later posting it's unsurprising you thought I meant natural gas supplies eh. I am talking about the "Green men" who aren't Russian... but are freedom fighting separatists, who got their equipment from the Ukraine... but turned out to be Russian, with Russian military equipment. Why? Because it was Russia who invaded to force something that fitted the Russian desired narrative. That removes a significant amount of their power projection around the region, where they have further vested interests. That's what I meant by "Ukraine"

2) Sorry, wait, what? Rightfully Russia's? *facepalm*

It was ruled by the Ottomans for longer than Russia - is it "rightfully" Turkish in that case? It has a history far richer than simply "being Russian", unless you're biased in your viewpoint? Furthermore, the transfer was due to the cultural and economic similarities of Crimea with the Ukraine, so your "taken from Russia without good reason" is very... hmm, how to say...

In reality, the way to go about what you describe isn't by invading another nations territory and saying "ours now"; that's literally the backwards way things were done centuries ago. The only thing Russia was helping was its own vested interests, not the people...
Those interests were especially surrounding the potential loss of the deep sea port, which would have seen Russian naval presence removed from the entire Black Sea/Med region, reducing their ability to project power and have a sphere of influence in the region. To be clear, their intent wasn't to "liberate" anyone... what were they liberating them from if it were? Or was it just acceptable "erm, we want this land back now."

Do you believe Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are also "rightfully" Russian, and if Russia invaded, it's all okay because they're just taking "their land back"?

Not heard of many opinions matching what you've said (outside of Russia at least). That's probably due to all Western propaganda against Russia, right? :roll:

So, we're not going to agree - but that's moderately irrelevant. The whole point I was posting was some people are saying "Russia has nothing to gain..." - Russia, demonstrably, has a plenty to gain by taking this action. That's not saying others may not have something to gain, but people weren't arguing that, quite the opposite in fact. They were simply stating, without anything to back the opinion, that Russia "has nothing to gain" and implying it must be Western led anti Russia propaganda reasons it was done - with the complicity of the Media and dozens of Governments of various countries around the world.

Actually, the only place I've heard that theory come from is RT and Russia itself :roll:

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Post by JSDD » Sat, 31. Mar 18, 01:21

in my view thats all just a show, symbolic politics ...

that guy is a traitor, he`s been caught, commited treason to russia (his homeland). in the US, treason can be punished by death. i dont know how it is in russia, but there cant be a more severe punishment (except being tortured, then killed ^^ gitmo?! :roll::D). i think its just that a guy that has been caught commiting treason gets killed. he had a choice.

what i think is not thought thoroughly through, is that about 1billion people (US + EU + some island shepherds) have to sacrafice in trade/cooperation/diplomacy and so on, just because 1 *sshole gets killed ...

compare that to iran: women sometimes are being hanged to death (from a dredger, crane etc .. what comes in handy) if they commit adultery (or if they`ve been raped). no word about that, trading with saudi arabia is also "business as usual", trading with communists is also acceptable nowadays ... but if a foreign traitor is being killed by his homeland, thats a hole other question, an example has to be stated, just to make a point ...
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Post by Retiredman » Sat, 31. Mar 18, 01:54

The whole deal seems out of place..

He was an ex-KGB agent and why didn't they provide an accident while he was in prison. From December 2004 to July 2010 they had him locked up
to serve a 13 year term.
To use a nerve agent that blatantly points to a country makes no tactical sense when you want the evidence not to implicate your country.

Rican or similar substance could have been used.
A robbery gone bad could have been done.
Why would Putin hold a grudge for 14 years...
Has the Russian clock and dagger got that sloppy in these past twenty years?

Of course I havn't seen all the evidence or facts...
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Post by pjknibbs » Sat, 31. Mar 18, 07:51

Retiredman wrote: To use a nerve agent that blatantly points to a country makes no tactical sense when you want the evidence not to implicate your country.
As has already been said in this thread, what makes you think Russia wanted to not be implicated? It's very much in their interests for people who might be considering betraying them to have second thoughts because "They can get me even if I'm living under the protection of another country".

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Post by Observe » Sun, 1. Apr 18, 02:56

Retiredman wrote:The whole deal seems out of place..
I agree. I don't know what to think, but it's pretty serious.

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Post by felter » Sun, 1. Apr 18, 03:57

Putin is trying to start another cold war, he is trying to take things back to when he was a member of the KGB. I have absolutely no idea why he is wanting to do this but that is what everything is pointing to. The poisoning itself is only a small part of the larger picture. A lot of what he has done and is doing doesn't seem to make sense but he is an intelligent man and I'm sure he has a plan and it seems to involve alienating everyone against Russia or maybe it isn't him and there really is a deep state pulling all of our strings.
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