Russian poisoning

[Rive]

Maybe if you wanna kill a former spy, don't do it by unleashing chemical weapons in a populated area?

Yeah. Dagger or gun: that's neat, clean, according to the rules of the game. It'll make it to the books if done well.

But with a chemical weapon, in a populated area, amongst the civilians - that's not the spy game.

[Observe]

Maybe if you wanna kill a former spy, don't do it by unleashing chemical weapons in a populated area?

Yeah. Dagger or gun: that's neat, clean, according to the rules of the game. It'll make it to the books if done well.

But with a chemical weapon, in a populated area, amongst the civilians - that's not the spy game.

True. Although do we know if they were contaminated at the scene where they were found, or could the nerve agent been administered elsewhere, but they didn't fall unconscious until later in the public place?

[red assassin]

Also, remember that Skripal was formally pardoned before being exchanged for Anna Chapman and company. Seems unusual per the traditional cloak and dagger games to kill someone who's been pardoned and swapped - it disincentives agreeing to any future spy swaps for a start.

[Observe]

...Seems unusual per the traditional cloak and dagger games to kill someone who's been pardoned and swapped - it disincentives agreeing to any future spy swaps for a start.

That's a good point. The Russians didn't do it?

[euclid]

...Seems unusual per the traditional cloak and dagger games to kill someone who's been pardoned and swapped - it disincentives agreeing to any future spy swaps for a start.

That's a good point. The Russians didn't do it?

I don't thinks so, not only because it's too obvious but it also makes no sense. The questions is: Who would benefit from such an act?

Several candidates comes to mind.

Cheers Euclid

[felter]

Maybe if you wanna kill a former spy, don't do it by unleashing chemical weapons in a populated area?

Yeah. Dagger or gun: that's neat, clean, according to the rules of the game. It'll make it to the books if done well.

But with a chemical weapon, in a populated area, amongst the civilians - that's not the spy game.

True. Although do we know if they were contaminated at the scene where they were found, or could the nerve agent been administered elsewhere, but they didn't fall unconscious until later in the public place?

The nerve agent was not administered where they were found as they were in a pub and a restaurant beforehand and traces of the nerve agent were found in both of them. Everyone who was in either of the two have been told to wash the clothing they were wearing in case of contamination. There have also been 35 other reported cases of possible human contamination reported to hospitals, though 34 of them have been given the all clear and the 35th is being monitored as an outpatient. This could easily have been a pretty serious attack.

While Skripal may have been an old school spy, it has been reported that he still worked for MI6, though that cannot be verified. So it is possible he was still active in the spying game.

[red assassin]

That's a good point. The Russians didn't do it?

Wouldn't be the first international norm they've violated in recent years. Perhaps they decided disincentivising other would-be spies is more valuable - it's not like there have been many spy swaps recently, and I'm not sure they benefited much from getting Chapman and company home.

Any culprit would require a) access to Russian chemical weapons and b) a relaxed attitude to the risk of getting caught and attributed - if this wasn't the Russians and whoever it was gets caught, they're going to have NATO *and* the Russians spectacularly pissed off at them, which isn't a great place to be.

[Chips]

...Seems unusual per the traditional cloak and dagger games to kill someone who's been pardoned and swapped - it disincentives agreeing to any future spy swaps for a start.

That's a good point. The Russians didn't do it?

I don't thinks so, not only because it's too obvious but it also makes no sense. The questions is: Who would benefit from such an act?

Several candidates comes to mind.

Curious opinion. "They can't have done it, it's too obvious ... others did it".

Wait to hear what is said tomorrow before jumping to conclusions based upon nothing other than personal uninformed hypothesis?

Also, "makes no sense", upon what basis does this "make no sense"? It makes perfect sense.

[Antilogic]

It's overwhelmingly clear Russia did this.

If there is any other possibility someone needs to come up with some evidence other than not really feeling like it was them.

If that evidence is found and presented then cool. Otherwise it is very, very much beyond reasonable doubt that Russia is behind this.

[eladan]

Any culprit would require a) access to Russian chemical weapons and b) a relaxed attitude to the risk of getting caught and attributed - if this wasn't the Russians and whoever it was gets caught, they're going to have NATO *and* the Russians spectacularly pissed off at them, which isn't a great place to be.

Yup. And the Russians have only given their usual "Who? Us?" innocent routine, no concern about somebody potentially having stolen nerve gas from them, or that somebody might be trying to frame them. So of course it's the Russians.

[euclid]

...... based upon nothing other than personal uninformed hypothesis.....

It is my understanding that all posts in this thread are personal opinions that are speculative to some degree, including yours.

...It makes perfect sense.

However, you might have some special sources (CIA, MI6, ...) that qualifies your opinon as "more informed". In this case please enlighten us

It's overwhelmingly clear Russia did this....

There is overwhelming evidence that points to Russia, no doubt. My point is to encourage you to think out-of-the-box. Russia doing this
makes no sense because of the consequences which were quite predictable.
Russia suffers already form sanctions due to their actions in Ukrain. Now it is very likely that UK will have to react by (see BBC News):

• Expel senior diplomats, perhaps even the Russian ambassador, Alexander Yakovenko, and known Russian intelligence agents.
  
  Take some sort of action to bar wealthy Russian oligarchs from accessing their mansions and other luxuries in London, as suggested by Tory MP and House of Commons foreign affairs committee chair Tom Tugendhat.
  One way this could happen is through the use of Unexplained Wealth Orders, which allow government officials to seize assets including property until they have been properly accounted for.
  
  A boycott of the Fifa World Cup in Russia later this year by officials and dignitaries - a symbolic move that UK allies are unlikely to emulate.
  
  Pass a British version of the 2012 US Magnitsky act, which punishes Russians involved in corruption and human rights violations with asset freezes and travel bans.
  It is named after a Russian lawyer who died in custody after revealing alleged fraud by state officials. MPs have been pushing for a Magnitsky amendment to be
  added to the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Bill now going through Parliament.
  
  Taking Russian broadcasters such as RT (formerly Russia Today) off the air - broadcasting regulator Ofcom has said it will "consider the implications for RT's broadcast licences" after Mrs May speaks on Wednesday.
  Moscow has threatened to bar all British media from working in Russia if RT is targeted.

And that might not be all. The EU is "ready to offer support if requested" which could result in:

• The exclusion of state banks from raising long-term loans in the EU.
  
  A ban on exports of dual-use equipment that could be put to military use and a ban on EU-Russia arms deals.
  
  A ban on exports of a wide range of oil industry technology.
  
  Western asset freezes and travel bans on 150 people, including senior officials, and 38 companies.

Obviously none of this is in Russia's best interest (to say it mildly). So why would Russia do such an act knowing the consequences? That make no sense to me.

Cheers Euclid

[Observe]

Obviously none of this is in Russia's best interest (to say it mildly). So why would Russia do such an act knowing the consequences? That make no sense to me.

That's what I don't get. Also, why not use an old fashioned bullet to the head? Instead, they used a nerve agent that would be certain to attract attention and point the finger squarely at Russia?

On the other hand, Putin is a cagey character and sometimes it seems all the world is a chessboard to him. He may be betting that audacity of such a move, will result in doubt that he did it.

[felter]

You can't think of Russia as a single entity like most other civilised countries, rather you have to think on it as a single entity being Russia and not everything that single entity does, is to help out Russia but rather it is to help out that single entity.

[fiksal]

This seems hasty. Why would Russia use poison that has written their name all over it? They are a lot but not stupid.

No they are not, and they know UK will not do anything to anyone in power in Russia that will matter.

So actually why not use the poison? There's no downside.

Obviously none of this is in Russia's best interest (to say it mildly). So why would Russia do such an act knowing the consequences? That make no sense to me.

That's what I don't get. Also, why not use an old fashioned bullet to the head? Instead, they used a nerve agent that would be certain to attract attention and point the finger squarely at Russia?

It's quite of a message isnt it?

Dont forget, a Russian politician died not too long ago near Red Square. Symbolic.

Russia suffers already form sanctions due to their actions in Ukrain.

it's an interesting idea, but are you sure about it?

I am looking on outside in, and a little bit from inside out, I see no such thing. For 24/7 Russians are told on the news that West may go on full scale attack [1] sometime soon-ish / maybe not, but lets be ready.

All the sanctions are peanuts. And I know that because Russia imposed even more harsh sanctions on importing of various products / produce, literally against own citizens, and proceeded destroying tons of imported tomatoes and cheese on TV for fun with bulldozers (all the banned brands by this day). What's the general feeling in the country after this? - Putin is Russia; the West got nothing.

And speaking of Ukraine, not only Putin didnt give in, he is slowly cementing the status of Crimea and Donbass region.


[1] I am not actually exaggerating here; people are expecting a war there for several years. Some dont, sure, but they dont matter. Just a quick run down - West/Nato/Britain/US invaded Ukraine leaving countless dead and tortured children, they slaughtered Russians in Donbass, they nearly successfully invaded Crimea but were defeated cleverly by Putin, they took down the Malaysian flight and blamed it on Russia, they pour insane amount of money into destroying infrastructures inside of the country through non profits and opposing political parties.

[Olterin]

[...]

[1] I am not actually exaggerating here; people are expecting a war there for several years. Some dont, sure, but they dont matter. Just a quick run down - West/Nato/Britain/US invaded Ukraine leaving countless dead and tortured children, they slaughtered Russians in Donbass, they nearly successfully invaded Crimea but were defeated cleverly by Putin, they took down the Malaysian flight and blamed it on Russia, they pour insane amount of money into destroying infrastructures inside of the country through non profits and opposing political parties.

... Really?? One ticket to Mars please, that radioactive desert might turn out to be less hostile to life than Earth soon™ (God I hope not)

On-topic: there is a case to be made for a false-flag operation by China, here. It would suit their interests marvelously - bringing all those Russian resources squarely into China's orbit and out of the West's reach by virtue of the harshest sanctions by the West and Russia responding in a fashion it has demonstrated in the past. However, any such speculation would require evidence to this effect, and as has been said, it'd be a ridiculously dangerous game to play. Occam's razor dictates this is not the case.

[Warenwolf]

Now before anyone cries out: "Sanctions don't work", Russia in 2014 had a GDP of roughly $2 billion, in 2015 it was down to $1.3 billion. That is an insane crash.

Anway, despite sanctions (travel bans, economic sanctions, expelling the diplomat) what other measures are there? Honest question because I don't know if there is a lot more that can be done.

How much did the the drop of GDP had to do with oil price "crash" in 2014? Have in mind that petroleum industry is the motor that drives russian economy.

As to what works with Russia? Well good question - I think traditional soft power solutions will not yield anything. There must be an immediate cost to russian elites (not russian people - they are irrelevant).

I found this fact interesting - dictator of Former Yugoslavia, Josip Broz "Tito", sent following message to Stalin :

"
Stop sending people to kill me! We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle... If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send a very fast working one to Moscow and I certainly won't have to send another. "

I also find it very telling example of Balkan mentality

Now, I do not recommend using 1950s methods in this time and age but what certainly holds true today as it did than that efficient response to autocrats must target the man and have /imply a personal cost to him
.

On related note:
Also I disagree with NATO being a factor in calculations in this situation - how much did NATO got involved in Litvenkos case?

PS:
One more thing - what Putin is doing is something many others have been doing for long time.

[Rive]

As to what works with Russia? Well good question - I think traditional soft power solutions will not yield anything. There must be an immediate cost to russian elites (not russian people - they are irrelevant

I would be surprised if the Russian military base in Syria would make the next month without serious casualties

[Tamina]

...It makes perfect sense.

The only thing that makes perfect sense is the evidence that Russians are inevitable born evil. At least in the Western comprehension.

Such espionage tactics to damage the relationship between nations were used very often by many different nations "in the past". Not just Russia.

With the to date published information I am completely with Euclid here. That said, the MI6 has to know way more then we do when they are making such accusations and they probably (hopefully) do.

[Antilogic]

That's what I don't get. Also, why not use an old fashioned bullet to the head? Instead, they used a nerve agent that would be certain to attract attention and point the finger squarely at Russia?

Not as if they have done it before or anything ^^

[Morkonan]

...There is overwhelming evidence that points to Russia, no doubt. My point is to encourage you to think out-of-the-box. Russia doing this
makes no sense because of the consequences which were quite predictable....

Obviously none of this is in Russia's best interest (to say it mildly). So why would Russia do such an act knowing the consequences? That make no sense to me.

Cheers Euclid

I will remind you that Putin is going to be going through yet another farcical "reelection" in two days. While his victory is assured, likely by an overwhelming turnout of 120% in his favor, having a potential "threat" in a country rattling its financial sabers at Russia, or any other rattling the UK wishes to do, only ensures that Russian citizens will continue to perceive "external threats" and will be more disposed towards electing a hard-liner, like Putin, rather than anyone who might dare to take a less aggressive stance towards the E.U. or prominent N.A.T.O. members.

Poking an anthill that really doesn't present an existential threat to Putin, but still serves to motivate his "constituents" to consider external threats when casting their ballot, is most certainly something that he would consider to be something that would give him an advantage in the election.

Putin can't lose, anyway, but..

The election is in two days. Two days. Between the time of the alleged assassination attempts and the possible completed assassination, it's guaranteed there will be a lot of implied retaliations, but no real actions... It's not as if the UK is going to just say "Oh yea, well screw you" and launch a retaliatory strike against Russian interests without more than just a few days deliberation and hemming and hawing over what they should do about the whole situation. That's time that Putin can use. He can use the uncertainty created by this to fuel voters so they'll be more inclined to vote for him, a person known for riding bears, scoffing at less manly men who don't enjoy wrestling with other sweaty men while wearing pajamas, and showing off his might pecs and thews while diving hundreds of fathoms underwater, unaided by any sissy "breathing device", since air is for wussies and non-hackers, just so he can discover ancient artifacts at will and present them to cute "journalists" who just happen to be strolling down the beach with a camera crew and sound guy...

This guy sets things up and then takes advantage of them for his own purposes. It's what he does.

It is well within his modus operandi to order this just so he can take advantage of it by giving a rousing acceptance speech that emphasizes external threats and points right at things like UK sabre rattling in response to this "fake news" and "fake incident."