Brexit

[Bishop149]

So another divisive topic but hey we've managed not to get the Trump thread locked.

Thought a thread might be good seeing as things worth discussing are actually happening now. Things such as.
- David Davis and the impact assessments that simultaneously are "excruciating detailed" and don't exist.
- Last nights agreement on the conclusion of the so called "Phase One" of the talks.

I'll kick off with something I think both sides might be able to agree on, regardless of how you voted I think we should all united in being furious with the governments approach to the most important issue of the day. I actually think the word incompetent might be too kind.

More controversially and having read last nights agreement: I don't think we're really leaving any more.
If that document represents a binding commitment (as I understand it, it does), then the UK has committed to a whole raft of things that are all but impossible without remaining in the EEA. Things like
- Maintenance of the Free Travel Area AND Freedom of movement between Ireland and the EU.
- No hard border between the mainland UK and any part of Ireland.

It think its pretty clear now, we're going for the Norway model. The so-called "No Deal" scenario has now all but been defined as such. Will Scotland, London and all the other highly remain ares thus now switch to a whole hearted push towards "No Deal"?

[mrbadger]

I have no confidence in the current governments ability to get anything right, so I fully expect this to carry on getting confused.

It isn't helped by that warmonger Blair using it as a platform back in to the halls of power. Anyone who thinks he cares about actual people would probably need their head examined.

My concerns are a little more immediate than our exit from the EU.

Like the fact that they just announced this scrapping of the wait til 2020 to bring in the new care cap of £75,000. Bit late, I already had to sell my mums house.

And changing that sooner was a campaign promise. Not that I voted for them.

Mildly angry about that.

I was always happy with the EEC, but never with the EU. I think the way both sides have behaved has demonstrated that it is far from the united happy family it was always portrayed as. The refugee crisis really showed how flawed it is.

Grossly unfair collection of countries always looking for an edge and trying to be the top dog, would be a better way of looking at it.

I'd be all for rejoining a better organised attempt in the future. But right now? No.

As for the snowflake generation who got so upset about us voting to leave?

Most of those didn't vote anyway, so tough.

Funny thing is, had they voted, we probably wouldn't have left the EU, but staying in bed/socialising mattered more then something that was hugely important to their futures.

But I see exactly the same behavior from my students all the time. Not from all of them to be sure, but from far too many, and it bothers me a lot.

[The Q]

Same old, same old. Really. You alreay had the best deal among EU states, but decided you need something better. Something better was not available. So at least you get something different than before now.

I'll kick off with something I think both sides might be able to agree on, regardless of how you voted I think we should all united in being furious with the governments approach to the most important issue of the day. I actually think the word incompetent might be too kind.

As a Non-UK EU citizen I have to tell you that even the best negotiator would have a hard time negotiating a good deal for the UK. I mean you have a Prime Minister, who was/is not in favour of leaving the EU, who has to find a way to make a plan called 'Brexit' work, which consists of nothing more than the idea of to be better off without the EU, plus some nonfactual allegations or hopes how, in the best case, it could turn out. On top of that your negotiating partner are 27 states who know damn well what they want and what their position is.

The so-called "No Deal" scenario has now all but been defined as such. Will Scotland, London and all the other highly remain ares thus now switch to a whole hearted push towards "No Deal"?

What does "No Deal" mean exactly? I mean with the location of the UK, and its economical, political and military relations to the EU certainly there have to be deals to make the everyday life work. So "No Deal" would be just the bare minimum and for everything else there's a separate deal negotiated, whenever needed?

[Alan Phipps]

The most important fact is that we can at last start talking about the trade negotiations and accompanying movement regulation (for goods and people) now.

The 'necessary precursor' agreements about the Ulster border and citizens rights formed a classic chicken and egg situation. Until the finalised trade agreements and related legal regulations are actually committed to, how can you possibly know the full level of UK/EU border controls and checks you might need to protect trade integrity and right of free passage for some but not all?

Similarly, the extended rights afforded those living in each others' areas will partly depend upon the interaction of the related legal regulations then in force on both sides. Sure, the agreed aim may be to protect the status quo, but the devil lies in the regulatory detail yet to come.

[mrbadger]

See that's the problem, the EU isn't a single entity to negotiate with, it's a room full of individuals.

We so should have stayed as the EEC and just argued about sausages and trains.

[Bishop149]

Actually I looked into it a bit further, I wasn't clear on the difference between the EEA and EEC. Fundamentally I think its that the EEC includes a customs union and the EEA doesn't.
So what is "a hard border". . . . its a little nebulous as a term but I can see a basic customs check possibly being characterised as "not one". Not in NI however, since 1998 (Good Friday Agreement) there has already been one attempt to put a slightly harder (than literally nothing) border between NI and I. It was shot down in flames by every side.

I think the most likely outcome is that we'll stay in the EEA with a customs border between NI and Mainland UK, probably physically located on the Mainland side to try and pacify the Unionists at least a bit.
Freight will be checked, people will probably be entirely free to cross probably through an almost entirely unenforced "Nothing to Declare" lane.

The movement of people issue will be a little harder to resolve.

What does "No Deal" mean exactly? I mean with the location of the UK, and its economical, political and military relations to the EU certainly there have to be deals to make the everyday life work. So "No Deal" would be just the bare minimum and for everything else there's a separate deal negotiated, whenever needed?

Basically it means that the UK and EU27 fail to agree a trade deal within the year that remains for the negotiations. Prior to this latest documents that would of meant we would then revert to basic WTO rules in regard to trade, now however it means in the words of the document: "

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

Which is basically EEC membership. . . . . .my earlier assertion this was the "Norway model" is inaccurate, this is actually closer to the EU than Norway is.

[euclid]

I'm not that much worried about the EU subsidies to UK. With £13.1B paid to the EU and £4.5B gained from the EU in 2016, Britain will be £8.6B better off per year. However, the Brexit costs are estimate to be around £35B. What worries me most are

• 1# UK laws that depend on EU regulations, acts and rules. Those would leave a vacuum if not filled in time. Of course there are substantial costs endowed with that. The estimates are somewhat debatable. It appears, however, that 12% - 65% of current UK laws require a re-formulation.
  2# Ireland, as a happy EU member, would encounter a nightmare of border regulations alone. Although May is pushing for a special border agreement I doubt that this will solve that problems entirely. It is more likely that, what ever action is taken, the Brexit will contribute to a destabilization of the situation in Ireland.
  3# Financial services are one of the big contributors to the British GDP. There is a serious risk that the financial center will move from London to an EU city. There are six (Amsterdam, Dublin, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Madrid and Paris) speculated to be the best candidate. Office space rental and property prices have already risen (Merrill Lynch rented office in Paris, Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt). If this really happens then the British GDP is about to be cut in half (carefully estimated) and the consequences for the economy will be dire.

I never was a "fan" of the Brexit and I'm sure that many of the "nay"-sayers meanwhile regret their vote. If there is any "clean" way out of this (read: avoid the Brexit) then I'm convinced it will be done.

Cheers Euclid

[matthewfarmery]

The more time passes, the less faith I have in this current silly government to get anything done right. They just a bunch of headless chickens with no clue on what to do next.

I also think the EU has been deliberately been making things hard for the UK to leave, So I have no confidence that we can strike a deal that will be in the UK's favour. As for the divorce bill, I think that just out of wack on the price of it. In the end, even though I voted to leave, I'm really regretting the choice I made. As the government has made a huge mess of things, and sadly, I don't see things improving.

[Chips]

1# UK laws that depend on EU regulations, acts and rules. Those would leave a vacuum if not filled in time. Of course there are substantial costs endowed with that. The estimates are somewhat debatable. It appears, however, that 12% - 65% of current UK laws require a re-formulation.

The UK is to write into stature all current EU laws; so current EU laws which we currently operate will become UK laws. Then they'll start to tinker...

So regulations should also be adopted I'd imagine. They may not keep up with EU regulations going forward, or may be altered. Who knows.

3# Financial services are one of the big contributors to the British GDP. There is a serious risk that the financial center will move from London to an EU city. There are six (Amsterdam, Dublin, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Madrid and Paris) speculated to be the best candidate. Office space rental and property prices have already risen (Merrill Lynch rented office in Paris, Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt). If this really happens then the British GDP is about to be cut in half (carefully estimated) and the consequences for the economy will be dire.

Why cut in half? Financial services account for ~10% of UK GDP, so why would (bearing in mind, movement of the "financial centre" isn't all financial services by any stretch) supposed to affect UK GDP up to 50%?

[Antilogic]

So I have no confidence that we can strike a deal that will be in the UK's favour.

This was never possible at any point.

[euclid]

.............
Why cut in half? Financial services account for ~10% of UK GDP, so why would (bearing in mind, movement of the "financial centre" isn't all financial services by any stretch) supposed to affect UK GDP up to 50%?

It's my personal estimate, should have mentioned that

How do I get to that? Quite simple: The consequences of moving the financial services to any EU city.

For example consider the car industry. Ford, BMW, Nissan etc. assemble roughly 2M cars in UK and more that half of those are for the EU market. At the moment they have a cost-effective way to balance their accounts (mostly via London) but after the Brexit with (most of) the London financial services relocated, this won't be effective anymore. It's even likely that some of the car manufacturers will move their plants to EU with wider consequences to revenue contribution, employment rates, insurances etc..

And that is only one of many examples (Aerospace industry is another one worth mentioning ... keyword: Airbus).

But, hey, who knows, maybe the UK manages to solve all that by negotiating clever deals with the EU and the EU market depending industries in UK

Cheers Euclid

[mrbadger]

I never was a "fan" of the Brexit and I'm sure that many of the "nay"-sayers meanwhile regret their vote.

I do wish people would stop trotting this one out, it is irritating.

How many elections/polls you've voted in do you regret? How many have you voted in where you didn't think before you voted?

If you don't think first, you're a fool, no matter which way you vote. I think the fools are the ones who didn't vote, but were so vocal afterwards.

[muppetts]

Changed my nationality and got an Irish passport, no more brexit issues, very happy!

UK minister said the unhappy voters could change things at the ballot box, except no main parties offered to cancel article 50 at last election because they are afraid of how it effects them, Labour just drop on the floor and played dead.

Now we are Oliver Twist begging the EU for more because they lied their collective arses off and have zero plan for what to do next.

[Chips]

How do I get to that? Quite simple: The consequences of moving the financial services to any EU city.

For example consider the car industry. Ford, BMW, Nissan etc. assemble roughly 2M cars in UK and more that half of those are for the EU market. At the moment they have a cost-effective way to balance their accounts (mostly via London) but after the Brexit with (most of) the London financial services relocated, this won't be effective anymore. It's even likely that some of the car manufacturers will move their plants to EU with wider consequences to revenue contribution, employment rates, insurances etc..

And that is only one of many examples (Aerospace industry is another one worth mentioning ... keyword: Airbus).

But, hey, who knows, maybe the UK manages to solve all that by negotiating clever deals with the EU and the EU market depending industries in UK

Cheers Euclid

Sorry, what financial services? The entire banking sector isn't moving to another EU country - and why would that impact the car industry so badly when it has been said that trade tariffs/taxes are the sticking point for the manufacturing industry and why they'd move, not "banking".

Basically, it's your opinion, but other than a few statements to the impact there's nothing to back it up; no information, no analysis, nothing. What financial services, and how does that relate to manufacturing.

Fine to make a statement, but you can't be surprised it's being challenged.

Changed my nationality and got an Irish passport, no more brexit issues, very happy!

Erm, what Brexit issues does that address? The purely "I'm now ok as i can work in an EU country without the need for a visa in the future"; glad to hear everyone's Brexit issues are sorted by your passport

[RegisterMe]

glad to hear everyone's Brexit issues are sorted by your passport

Nope, my passport too! My mum's Irish so I automatically qualify for an Irish passport.

Sorry for being the spawn of a bloody immigrant .

[Chips]

Pfft, wave your fancy passports around Useless I say, useless! They won't change any negative effects for the majority - only your ability to "run away"

[RegisterMe]

hey won't change any negative effects for the majority - only your ability to "run away"

Yeah I know .

[euclid]

...... you can't be surprised it's being challenged .....

I'm surprised that you got the impression that I'm surprised

Cheers Euclid

[Chips]

...... you can't be surprised it's being challenged .....

I'm surprised that you got the impression that I'm surprised

Cheers Euclid

I'm surprised that you're surprised i'm surprised at your alleged surprisedness...

I think?

I'm surprised, you were surprised, at my surprised, and I thought you were surp... i got it right, right?

yeah. Wait, no, yes, right. Yeah. Think. Whatever. /legit

[Antilogic]

glad to hear everyone's Brexit issues are sorted by your passport

Nope, my passport too! My mum's Irish so I automatically qualify for an Irish passport.

Sorry for being the spawn of a bloody immigrant .

If you move to Ireland can I get your place?