Russia-Ukraine War

[fiksal]

4) How does the US administration feel about the fact that their weapons are being transferred to an unknown group of people who are not connected with the Ukrainian command?

To be seen.

I see this is mostly a Russia problem however, not much a US or Ukraine problem.

The whole restriction of staying away from Russian targets pre Crimea is silly anyways.


So let's see how this develops

[Observe]

The whole restriction of staying away from Russian targets pre Crimea is silly anyways.

It does seem so. They are at war. Ukraine has suffered tremendous death and destruction. Why should Ukraine have any compunctions against fomenting discord and disruption within Russia? It's not like Ukraine is interested in claiming legitimate Russian territory.

[Falcrack]

Hot times @Belgorod region - russian partisans not only sabotage trains anymore but openly attacking.

@source theguardian.com anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinka

This article is missing a couple of minor details.
1) These partisans drove from Ukrainian territory on American military vehicle (HMMWV and International MaxxPro). There is photo and video evidence of this.
2) They drove through the border checkpoint (killing the border guards) with the support of the Ukrainian T-72 tank. I did not find evidence here, except for one video in which a Ukrainian tank passes next to the partisans in the parking lot before crossing the border.

So... there are at least 4 questions:
1) Where do ordinary Russian partisans get American military equipment?
2) Is it true that the Ukrainian command has nothing to do with this?
3) If the answer to question 2 is "yes", then where did the Russian partisans get the Ukrainian tank from?
4) How does the US administration feel about the fact that their weapons are being transferred to an unknown group of people who are not connected with the Ukrainian command?

This is why Ukraine CANNOT have an active hand in providing material support for such activities, since so much of their supplies come from international support. Even if they are just donating equipment originally from Ukraine, this has a bad look. If Russians want to have a civil war to oust their own leadership, they must do it without getting military supplies indirectly from the US via the Ukrainian government. This would given enough time totally undermine the support Ukraine is receiving to resist the Russian invasion, which is the last thing I want to see happen.

[mr.WHO]

It's just a bunch of HMMWV - it's not like they rolled in Challenger 2 or Abrams, waving NATO flag.

Funny thing is that we forgot whole Russian propaganda that Ukraine and Ukrainians doesn't exists?
Thus, according to Russia, it's Russia invading Russia, in reaction of Russia liberating Russia

Unironically it partially true, as Ukraine spin that it's Free Russians acting on their own

[chew-ie]

There were two groups involved, The Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps. The Liberty of Russia Legion are Ukrainian Russians who probably lived in Ukraine to get away from the Russian regime and are now back into the Russian fold and are not happy about it, even though they are from Ukraine and operate mainly from Ukraine they have nothing to do with Ukraine, or it's government. The Russian Volunteer Corps as far as I'm aware are actual Russians who live in Russia, also as far as I heard they were the ones responsible for the attack on the Kremlin and that attack was a message for Putin to be afraid and it worked.

AFAIK the Freedom of Russia Legion (or: The Liberty of Russia Legion) has it's origins in the russian army. They are basically defectors who questioned the war goals of Putin.

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While I also ponder about the effects of the recent partisan actions I also acknowledge that partisans always got their weapons from somewhere. In every war. Be it by "the human factor" or "indirect" supplies by secret services and / or unofficial measures.

At the end partisans are partisans - they can't be [officially] controlled as they are not part of the military. But they are always "there". I guess it's the urge of [some] humans to do the "correct thing" / vent their disagreement.

Seeing at what is at stake for partisans once they get caught I can't help but admire their bravery - no matter whos side they are on. Those are indivduals who operate without any safety net and have no one but the public opinion to back them up when push comes to shove.

Just as a sidenote - back in WW2 russia was happy to benefit from extensive partisan actions. They were even part of the mop-up operations once germany was defeated. And partisan counteractions are a huge part of the crimes of the Wehrmacht (as the elimination of partisans was also utilized to get rid of opponents)

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UK ministry of defense published a small summary on the latest partisan activities

(1/6) Between 19 and 22 May 2023, Russian security forces highly likely clashed with partisans in at least three locations within Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, near the Ukrainian border.

[..]

(5/6) Russia is facing an increasingly serious multi-domain security threat in its border regions, with losses of combat aircraft, improvised explosive device attacks on rail lines, and now direct partisan action.

(6/6) Russia will almost certainly use these incidents to support the official narrative that it is the victim in the war.

@source UK mod @twitter: https://twitter.com/defencehq
alternative url without twitter tracking: http://nitter.at/DefenceHQ/status/1660884230174560256#m

[mr.WHO]

The other possible reason for this raid, might be to create a propaganda outrage within Russia calling to revenge.
If this would trigger Russia spontaneus attacks on mostly prepared and fortified Ukrainina outpost along the border, it would be favorable for Ukraine.

Like "ok, we lost Bahmut....how can we provoke Russia to fall into dozen mini-Bahmuts?"

[chew-ie]

The partisan topic aside - it's quite astonishing how the second best army could have failed in such a way in terms of border security. There is literally a small army marching through russian territory which borders a warzone. Shouldn't they have some military there?

[Gavrushka]

The partisan topic aside - it's quite astonishing how the second best army could have failed in such a way in terms of border security. There is literally a small army marching through russian territory which borders a warzone. Shouldn't they have some military there?

I think, despite the rhetoric from Russia saying they're not the aggressors but are merely defending themselves, Putin knows Ukraine has no intention of attacking Russian territory other than to destroy military hardware. -And any Ukrainian special forces operating in Russia aren't likely to be stopped at the border, no matter how many military they have stationed there.

[Falcrack]

I think the main point of the cross border raids into Russia is to force Russia to divert forces from other fronts to try to counter it. Russia cannot by any means ignore such an attack into Russia itself, and when Ukraine notices that they have moved significant amounts of forces from other fronts inside Ukraine to counter it, then the main counteroffensive, perhaps in Zaporizhia, will begin. But I dunno, Ukraine has shown a knack for doing the unexpected in this war.

[mr.WHO]

But I dunno, Ukraine has shown a knack for doing the unexpected in this war.

At this point, we can just as well expect:
- massive amphibious invasion through Dnieper (there were some interesting supplies provided to Ukraine in this area)
- mini sea invasion on Crimea (simply to confuse the hell out of Russia)

[fiksal]

I vaguely checked what's new in Russian news - nothing of substance, they've no idea what's going on

[Chips]

This article is missing a couple of minor details.
1) These partisans drove from Ukrainian territory on American military vehicle (HMMWV and International MaxxPro). There is photo and video evidence of this.
2) They drove through the border checkpoint (killing the border guards) with the support of the Ukrainian T-72 tank. I did not find evidence here, except for one video in which a Ukrainian tank passes next to the partisans in the parking lot before crossing the border.

Where did they get American equipment? See the links below and look to countries that operate the platforms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... #Operators
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humvee#Operators
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-72_oper ... #Operators

Undoubtedly if they've driven in *from* Ukraine then... I mean, driving military vehicles around Ukraine should attract attention of the Ukrainian armed forces/police at the least (you'd expect). I mean, they can source vehicles from anywhere (there are groups driving from the UK with old military vehicles being privately bought from collectors and resellers, for example), but they have the appropriate paperwork to get through Europe. Similarly, surely if they've sourced it all themselves there should have been someone, somewhere, in Ukraine going "erm...wait, what?"

e.g. Afghanistan was invaded because a militant group hiding in the country attacked the USA.

I found it most interesting that Russia responded by saying "Counter terrorism operation" was mounted.

[Falcrack]

With all that is taking place in Belgorad right now, and the looming Ukrainian counteroffensive, I wonder if Georgia would be in any position right now to kick Russian troops out of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

[mr.WHO]

With all that is taking place in Belgorad right now, and the looming Ukrainian counteroffensive, I wonder if Georgia would be in any position right now to kick Russian troops out of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

I doubt, given that current Georgian goverment is pro-Russian - they even resume Russia-Georgia air flights several days ago.

[fiksal]

With all that is taking place in Belgorad right now, and the looming Ukrainian counteroffensive, I wonder if Georgia would be in any position right now to kick Russian troops out of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

I doubt, given that current Georgian goverment is pro-Russian - they even resume Russia-Georgia air flights several days ago.

Is she pro Russian?

The blue and yellow would be a wrong choice of colors

And then there's this

During an interview with DW News in May 2022, Zourabichvili stated that Georgia was in full compliance with the international financial sanctions on Russia and wanted a "quicker and shorter path towards integration" into NATO and the EU

[Acipeo]

I mean, they can source vehicles from anywhere

Let's be honest. The partisans were coming from the territory of Ukraine. Any supply of weapons to Ukraine is possible only through the territory of Europe. The transfer of weapons is possible only with the consent of the country of origin. Armored cars are not something that can be smuggled in your pocket. So we basically have 2 options:
1) Some Europe country is smuggling American weapons
2) Ukraine without permission (or with tacit permission) transferred these weapons to third parties

I'm leaning towards option 2. And now let's think about what else Ukraine could have given to unknown people (to carry out this action). How about the Stingers. After all, such an armored car needs to be protected from Russian helicopters, right?

Now let's think a little more. These people can keep a few Stingers. And then these Stingers may appear on the black market. After this some passenger plane may fall in any part of the planet. Could it be?

What I want to say... weapons must not be transferred to third parties, no matter: good they or not. There are no perfect people. People are evil and greedy.

It's very big mistake if Ukraine did this.

[felter]

Here's a thing, if Ukraine had supplied the APC's that were used that would mean Ukraine would have had to have driven those APC's across the Russian front lines, over all the defences that Russia has prepared to stop a Ukrainian counter-offensive, all the way to the Russian border and beyond, without the Russian troops noticing them, which if true, means things are really not looking good for the Russian troops on those front lines.

[fiksal]

Here's a thing, if Ukraine had supplied the APC's that were used that would mean Ukraine would have had to have driven those APC's across the Russian front lines, over all the defences that Russia has prepared to stop a Ukrainian counter-offensive, all the way to the Russian border and beyond, without the Russian troops noticing them, which if true, means things are really not looking good for the Russian troops on those front lines.

Heh, I didn't think of that!

[jlehtone]

Denis Kapustin of Russian militia (supposedly) hints that Russia got western equipment from Bakhmut and some of that is now on black market (inside Russia). https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine ... FKBN2XF1HJ

[clakclak]

[...]

Now let's think a little more. These people can keep a few Stingers. And then these Stingers may appear on the black market. After this some passenger plane may fall in any part of the planet. Could it be?

What I want to say... weapons must not be transferred to third parties, no matter: good they or not. There are no perfect people. People are evil and greedy.

It's very big mistake if Ukraine did this.

A stinger can not shoot down a passenger plane, they fly between 10-12 km from the earth. A stinger has a service ceiling of 3.8km. The only way you are going to shoot down a commercial airliner with a stinger is if you catch it while starting or landing and that could also be accomplished with much cheaper Soviet made MANPADs which have been available on black markets for a long long time now.

The advantage of a stinger is that it is more likely to hit it's target, but a commercial airliner is, compared to a military jet or helicopter, a lot easier to track even for outdated equipment.

Also America poured MANPADs into various conflicts for years. It is highly likely that even before the war in Ukraine there was a supply of American made AA missiles on the black market. The men in this picture both hold stingers. They are Taliban.