Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Looks like 2 airbases that are used to bomb Ukraine got hit. Engels-2 and Dyagilevo airbases.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... mp;amp;amp

[burger1]

Looks like Kursk airbase got bit by drones today. One of the airbases that got hit yesterday might still be on fire.

Nato might have increased manufacturing output again on more products.

Russian banks might be losing a lot of money and need a government bailout or they might collapse.

[Gavrushka]

I've been reading that opposition to the war is growing in Russia, but I also get that 'opposition' is a dangerous place to be in an authoritarian state. I wonder if there's any chance that dissenting voices will grow so loud that those close to Putin will start to rethink their allegiances. I've little idea of what daily life is like for people now, and how it's been affected, but I do know just what kind of hardships the Russian populace have faced (and tolerated) in the past. (I lived in St Petersburg for some months when the 1998 economic crash hit. -As I remember, I'd changed a thousand dollars into roubles the day before the currency crashed! )

[Warenwolf]

I've been reading that opposition to the war is growing in Russia, but I also get that 'opposition' is a dangerous place to be in an authoritarian state. I wonder if there's any chance that dissenting voices will grow so loud that those close to Putin will start to rethink their allegiances.

Call me a skeptic but I hope I am wrong - my impression is that majority of people in Russia felt pride when Crimea was conquered by Putin and felt equally supportive of war in Ukraine - a support that largely was maintained during the war.

I link to Levada center which is often used as source for various articles on the net or one of those "open sources" people link to in their analyses.

Range for support for the war goes from 58% among the young to 75% among the elderly.
Now, indeed support for peace talks has steadily increased since the start of the war which media has interpreted in various way, more optimistic the longer west you go.
In my old country, way to the south of Europe, most newspapers pointedly asked "what sort of peace?"...
Full disclosure - I am very much against peace-for-any-price peace negotiations at this point of time for reasons that are irrelevant for discussion but this is for involved parties to decide.

Sources:
https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/11/01/con ... ober-2022/

[mr.WHO]

Seem like there are more and more reports of Ukraine drone strikes across Western Russia.
Hopefully this is start of consisten and prolonged campaign, to get some payback and divert more russian resources on defensive.

[clakclak]

I've been reading that opposition to the war is growing in Russia, but I also get that 'opposition' is a dangerous place to be in an authoritarian state. I wonder if there's any chance that dissenting voices will grow so loud that those close to Putin will start to rethink their allegiances.

Call me a skeptic but I hope I am wrong - my impression is that majority of people in Russia felt pride when Crimea was conquered by Putin and felt equally supportive of war in Ukraine - a support that largely was maintained during the war.

I link to Levada center which is often used as source for various articles on the net or one of those "open sources" people link to in their analyses.

Range for support for the war goes from 58% among the young to 75% among the elderly.
Now, indeed support for peace talks has steadily increased since the start of the war which media has interpreted in various way, more optimistic the longer west you go.
In my old country, way to the south of Europe, most newspapers pointedly asked "what sort of peace?"...
Full disclosure - I am very much against peace-for-any-price peace negotiations at this point of time for reasons that are irrelevant for discussion but this is for involved parties to decide.

Sources:
https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/11/01/con ... ober-2022/

The question then becomes how strong the support is in different regions. Russia is a notoriously diverse country and people in the different Republics may very well think differently about the war. I would not be surprised if in Republics like Dagastan where there has allready been considerable resistance to the recruitment process, support for the war is far less strong than in other parts of the country.

[mr.WHO]

Food stamps are returning to Russia:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 9664346112


Edit:
More Foreign Legion combat footage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsU74ubgHMQ

[Warenwolf]

In other news, Orban vetoes of EU aid for Ukraine:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu ... 022-12-06/

Meanwhile in USA, conservative pundits have increased their support for Kremlin narrative:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... kraine-war

Same people hold Orban as model and hero for their conservative movement (I am using conservative as they use it in USA and not how it may be used in other countries).

Food stamps are returning to Russia:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 9664346112

Color me skeptical but I can find any serious news source repeating the story and/or confirming it from other sources. We'll see in coming days.

[mr.WHO]

Color me skeptical but I can find any serious news source repeating the story and/or confirming it from other sources. We'll see in coming days.

The story details that it's just one city near Moscow for now.
Only time will tell if it will become nationwide rationing system in a few months.

[felter]

So it looks like Ukraine has got its long range drones up and running with these past few days of attacks on air fields well inside Russia going BOOM. It's interesting that Russia are saying they intercepted the drones, but I think the information we are seeing is saying they didn't know anything about them till after the attacks. As for the drones, they could potentially be called az vozdam which means I will repay, this had been taking from a potential picture from a while back of one of the drones they were working on, so it may not be the name. According to a Facebook post from October, the people behind it said:

Range is 1000 km (621 miles), weight of the combat unit is 75 kg (165 pounds)

There was also a picture and that's where the name came from, though I haven't seen it, or able to link to it. If any of this is true, and the point that it looks like the Russians didn't notice till after the fact is pretty much bad news for Russia, especially as it opens up the whole of Crimea to an attack from these drones.

[Warenwolf]

Aparently winter conditions seriously affect Russian airforce (cannot identify targets and use unguided weapons) and drone operations (seem like Iranian drones are not made to operate in Northern winter).

However, all above probably affect Ukraine as well (use a lot of comercial drones and I don't think Bayraktar is made with Russian winter in mind).

(,,,)
As to Iranian drones not being able to operate due to their plastic not handling the temperatures right now in Ukraine (which is at not so impressive -6 Celsius in Kiev right now) - sounds again bit strange and oddly specific. Winter operations in northern Iran has to contest with these kinda temperatures already. Could be true but may be an attempt on misguiding the opponent here - after all issues with plastic becoming brittle in cold IS VERY solvable.

While Kremlin's propaganda is well into fantasy area, this is why we should not take all coming from Ukrainian as gospel either - on Monday or some time before, they claimed Iranian drones cannot operate due to cold - however two days later we can read from the the CNN news feed:

On Wednesday Russia launched a series of drone attacks on Ukraine using Iranian made ‘Shahed’ drones. Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down 14 out of 136 ‘Shaheds’ launched

Probably here is some confusion between "Shahed 136" and actual number of drones launched.

[burger1]

Brittney Griner traded for arms dealer Viktor Bout the merchant of death. The Nicholas Cage movie Lord of War was based on his life.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... d_nn_tw_ma

Wow that was stupid. The US basically just killed a lot of people to free one person.

[mr.WHO]

Brittney Griner traded for arms dealer Viktor Bout the merchant of death. The Nicholas Cage movie Lord of War was based on his life.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... d_nn_tw_ma

Wow that was stupid. The US basically just killed a lot of people to free one person.

Not sure how stupid it is - the dude is out of business for at least 10 years, so it might be fair trade to get US citizen for him.
Hell, he might not even have a market to return for, as most of his wares are now beign sucked into Ukraine like a big black hole.

[Warenwolf]

Brittney Griner traded for arms dealer Viktor Bout the merchant of death. The Nicholas Cage movie Lord of War was based on his life.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... d_nn_tw_ma

Wow that was stupid. The US basically just killed a lot of people to free one person.

Inspired is perhaps more precise word when talking about the film...

CNN had an article about the guy and why is he, after sitting 14 years in prison, important to Kremlin:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/08/euro ... index.html

If the guy was so important to Putin, trading him for (only) Griner is totally pointless. But I guess internal politics in US were deciding factor here.
But this entire thing is only tangentially related to the Ukrainian War.

[fiksal]

Like or not, US tends to put more value in its citizens than criminals and their strategic value.
This isnt a first time US exchanged this way. Or the last time.

A kind of thing Kremlin doesnt do.

[notaterran]

Seem like there are more and more reports of Ukraine drone strikes across Western Russia.
Hopefully this is start of consisten and prolonged campaign, to get some payback and divert more russian resources on defensive.

One can only hope, I wonder if we'll eventually see the Kremlin get hit as the Ukrainians become more adept at using long-range drones. Russia has been deliberately and consistently bombing civilian areas and civilian infrastructure, setting Russian bases on fire is the very least Ukraine could do.

[Warenwolf]

Like or not, US tends to put more value in its citizens than criminals and their strategic value.
This isnt a first time US exchanged this way. Or the last time.

A kind of thing Kremlin doesnt do.

I don't mind that, I was more seeing this in perspective that there are several US citizens who for various reasons sit in the Kremlin's dungens (Sarah Krivanek and Paul Whelan is the ones I would have prioritized).

Griner - whether you agree with it or not, broke the local law (bringing with her vape cartridges with cannabis oil). Obviously getting almost max prison time for that is politically charged. Sarah on other hand is not even charged with anything.

EDIT:
Apparently Sarah Krivanek is also on the way back home.
https://people.com/politics/sarah-kriva ... risonment/

[fiksal]

Like or not, US tends to put more value in its citizens than criminals and their strategic value.
This isnt a first time US exchanged this way. Or the last time.

A kind of thing Kremlin doesnt do.

I don't mind that, I was more seeing this in perspective that there are several US citizens who for various reasons sit in the Kremlin's dungens (Sarah Krivanek and Paul Whelan is the ones I would have prioritized).

Griner - whether you agree with it or not, broke the local law (bringing with her vape cartridges with cannabis oil). Obviously getting almost max prison time for that is politically charged. Sarah on other hand is not even charged with anything.

EDIT:
Apparently Sarah Krivanek is also on the way back home.
https://people.com/politics/sarah-kriva ... risonment/

It's a little hard to judge over the pond who broke what law in Russia. The defense council cant challenge anything. I am not up to speed on Griner's case, so I had to google for specifics, and she apparently was convincted on non existing law. That part isnt in Russian criminal code article 228 it appears from quick googling. Anyways, that's neither here or there, Russian law is just paper.

As for priority, sure, perhaps one should be faster than the other. It's also hard to say what deals are made that we dont know about.

[notaterran]

Vladimir Putin said Russia may consider formally adding the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to its military doctrine, just days after warning that the risk of atomic war is rising.

Link

Russia keeps making empty threats about a nuclear strike because at this point it's the only card they have left, the past few months have shown that Russia cannot defeat Ukraine militarily (Russian wins come with a high price). As others have mentioned, Russia is just a bigger version of North Korea. Perun would say, a bad army doesn't mean a harmless army; Russia has caused untold damage to the civilian population. Here's hoping that Ukraine will win the war.

[burger1]

Ukraines likely to get Patriot missile systems.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-s ... -rcna61613

Iran's likely to supply Russia with more missiles.

Draft in Russia looks like it's still going on.

Russia apparently now sending females in occupied regions to fight.