Russia-Ukraine War

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Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Sat, 4. Dec 21, 21:42

A Biden administration official said that Moscow's plans "call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's rapid military build-up near Ukraine's borders".
Link

The U.S. is talking about sanctions, though we've seen that Russia doesn't care about those.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Moscow of the "severe costs" Russia would pay if it invaded Ukraine, urging his Russian counterpart on Thursday to seek a diplomatic exit from the crisis.
Link

What do you think will happen? Nothing? Will war break out between Russia and the Ukraine? Will Russia and the West start a new Cold War?
Last edited by notaterran on Thu, 24. Feb 22, 21:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Teladi CEO » Sun, 5. Dec 21, 00:01

I doubt any actually war will occur beyond what weaves already seen. Russia can invade Ukraine and still might, but i don’t think they would go very far, beyond perhaps the Donbas.

I believe this because Putin owns vast amounts of land in Western Europe and I doubt he would be wanting to have billions of assets seized and furthermore the Ukrainian army is stronger that before. Besides my good Russian friend who’s obsessed (obsessed is different then informed; but it’s still a Russians perspective on their own army) with the Russian military continues to tell me “Russia won’t start a war because it won’t win one against a Western country” his reasoning is comparable to the Nagarno-Karabak War earlier this year. Armenia used a strategy similar to Russia which prioritizes artillery firepower of air strength and drone. Armenia got slapped by Turkey and Azerbeijan who did use drones. In essence neither him or I think that Russia winning a war against Ukraine is feasible for that reason.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Sun, 5. Dec 21, 00:12

Why should RU do that?
Because of US and NATO forces in UKR near the boarder?
Or to protect the RU people in Donbas?
RU is big, they have all resources they need - not like GER in WW2, no need to expand.
They have sanctions, should they fear for more?
Last edited by EGO_Aut on Fri, 17. Dec 21, 23:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Teladi CEO » Sun, 5. Dec 21, 00:18

Putin is also facing more pressure at home from Russian Youth and also suffers from a lack of enthusiasm with people joining the military. Russia currently conscripts 400,000 of its roughly 2,000,000 strong army. Which is still significantly larger than the roughly 1,000,000 man Ukrainian army but Russia can’t deploy all of its forces while Ukraine can. Ukraine would probably also experience a lot of support from other Western nations even if they don’t intervene directly.

A major difference in the prior Russian invasion was that the people were against the Ukrainian government, this would be entirely different as Russia would be invading pro-Ukraine territory and would have to fight a guerrilla war.

Of course all do this is speculation but I don’t think Russia will truly “invade”

Why should RU do that?
Because of US and NATO forces in UKR near the boarder?
Or to protect the RU people in Donbas?
RU is big, they have all resources they need - not like GER in WW2, no need to expand.
Thdy have sanctions, should they fear for more?
I don’t think Russia has much value on resources and that is definitely not its aim. If Russia wanted to protect the people in Donbas it would’ve ended this war immediately after it started by actually supporting Donbas with troop. The only thing Putin has showed it that he doesn’t care much for people, especially considering is support for a regime in Syria that gas attacks his own people.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 5. Dec 21, 02:28

You don't put that many troops on the boarder unless you're planning to invade. Remember Crimea? It wouldn't be unprecedented for Putin to invade and it's not as if Ukraine, AFAIK, has been attempting to invade or even attack Russia.

I'd bet that Putin is betting on NATO not intervening, again. And he may be right. With the world in turmoil, I can see NATO sitting on its thumbs while Ukraine falls to Putin.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by mr.WHO » Sun, 5. Dec 21, 11:14

The devil is in the details:
- Nord Stream 2 suppose to be already operational
- this would allow to cut off Ukraine from gas in the middle of winter
- this would spark (or be provoked by Russian agents) anti-Russian riots
- Russia would have excuse to invade to "protect" russian speaking Ukrainians (who BTW seems to be less and less pro-Russia with every day)
- deploying troop in Belarus as an excuse, can be also used for pernament deployment in Belarus and silent annexation as well


This plan was/is in effect, but has been significantly derailed:
- Germany stopped NS2 certification for at least 6 months (great move as it will buy time for Ukraine to survive winter and prepare for next year with new gas source).
- a week ago Ukraine president mentioned their secret service foiled a coup d'etat supported by some pro-russian oligarch.
- the world is watching Russian preparations and seems to be on Ukraine side, even EU/Germany which usually cut a lot of slack for Russia.


The above seem like significatly lowered the possibility of war, but never underestimate Russian fascination with "short victorious war" as currently Russia is in the best invasion enviroment - they got Ukraine surrounded literaly on 4-side, they can strike anywhere and Ukraine doesn't have resources to hold on any more than 2 fronts (East, South).
However, I think they are aware that if they go full retard it will actually open the eyes of Europe and will give German Green an excuse to kill Nord Stream 2 and possibly even NS1 in long term.

There is also one deeply ingrained russian view point, that Russian cannot be an Empire without Ukraine, if they get fully controled Belarus as a bonus, it could be fair deal in their mind (just like it was fair deal for them to get Crimea).
Getting these two would realize Putin dream to somewhat restore Soviet Union.
Last edited by mr.WHO on Sun, 5. Dec 21, 13:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by clakclak » Sun, 5. Dec 21, 12:50

mr.WHO wrote:
Sun, 5. Dec 21, 11:14
[...]
However, I think they are aware that if they go full retard it will actually open the eyes of Europe and will give German Green an excuse to kill Nord Stream 2 and possibly even NS1 in long term.

[...]
This seems even more likely considering that Baerbock is said to be the next forgein minister of Germany. She isn't exactly a fan of Nord Stream 2, having criticised the project in the past.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by notaterran » Mon, 13. Dec 21, 06:28

It's official, the U.S. won't intervene if Russia invades (not that it was likely anyway).
Mr Biden said he had made it clear to Mr Putin that there would be "economic consequences like none he's ever seen" if he invaded Ukraine.
Link

I guess this rules out sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, the question now is how easily can Russia achieve victory. As for the "economic consequences", we know Putin will just laugh them off.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 13. Dec 21, 07:03

Not entirely accurate. I believe he said sanctions 'among other things', but he has not said there would not be any military intervention. Besides, opposing Russia is the entire reason for NATO being a thing... well, when it was the USSR, at any rate. If NATO allows Russia to do whatever it pleases, then maybe Trump was right about NATO (for the wrong reasons).
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Chips » Thu, 16. Dec 21, 19:19

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 13. Dec 21, 07:03
If NATO allows Russia to do whatever it pleases, then maybe Trump was right about NATO (for the wrong reasons).
NATO isn't the Russia police, and Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
NATO’s essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_68144.htm

So whether or not Trump was right about NATO has zero link to Ukraine at present.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 16. Dec 21, 20:08

I think the whole "NATO will send troops to Ukraine" is just load of stupid journalist BS, ever following clickbaits.
Add the hefty load of russian trolls and russian propaganda to this mix and you can kiss goodbye any semblance of reality.

There are some NATO instructors literally for ages (like 20 years), for example Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade doing coop trainings.

Anyone thinking NATO would openly send any troops is delusional (bar some black-ops merc, which BTW Russia is doing as well).

At best, West would be able to send some equipment, but if the full scale war start, it will be over before first shipment would arrive.
The best deterrent would be, if West would send loads of equipment now (e.g. the US equipment that suppose to got for Afgan army, before Taliban swept everything).
For some reason US stopped sending any equipment and Germany blocked any arm deals from EU side...
...it almost like they want to bait Russia to actually attack, instead of dettering from the attack in a first place.


It's not like load of Javelins and Stingers would help Ukraine to retake any territories, but would give Russia a huge pain in the ass, if they would want to invade and hold more territory.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Thu, 16. Dec 21, 22:10

What are you talking about? NATO has been operating in every theatre of war since its inception, regardless if the theatre is in a member state or not. It's not a black ops force, it's a global peace keeping force that was formed specifically to oppose the SU.
Chips wrote:
Thu, 16. Dec 21, 19:19
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 13. Dec 21, 07:03
If NATO allows Russia to do whatever it pleases, then maybe Trump was right about NATO (for the wrong reasons).
NATO isn't the Russia police, and Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
NATO’s essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_68144.htm

So whether or not Trump was right about NATO has zero link to Ukraine at present.
See above, and https://dailyhistory.org/Why_was_NATO_( ... ed_in_1949
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Chips » Thu, 16. Dec 21, 23:30

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Thu, 16. Dec 21, 22:10
What are you talking about? NATO has been operating in every theatre of war since its inception, regardless if the theatre is in a member state or not. It's not a black ops force, it's a global peace keeping force that was formed specifically to oppose the SU.
Chips wrote:
Thu, 16. Dec 21, 19:19
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 13. Dec 21, 07:03
If NATO allows Russia to do whatever it pleases, then maybe Trump was right about NATO (for the wrong reasons).
NATO isn't the Russia police, and Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
NATO’s essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_68144.htm

So whether or not Trump was right about NATO has zero link to Ukraine at present.
See above, and https://dailyhistory.org/Why_was_NATO_( ... ed_in_1949
Okay, I quoted NATO's own website, you quote some other site and say NATO has been involved in wars.

I can't argue with that logic which ignores cold hard facts with whatabouttery that's irrelevant; it's just pointless. Are you saying Ukraine is in NATO? Are you saying NATO's remit isn't to defend and safeguard the freedom of member states by political and military means - but is to fight Russia?

btw Afghanistan - NATO was involved in that war because it was called to arms to defend a member nation - USA.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Fri, 17. Dec 21, 04:17

Chips wrote:
Thu, 16. Dec 21, 23:30
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Thu, 16. Dec 21, 22:10
What are you talking about? NATO has been operating in every theatre of war since its inception, regardless if the theatre is in a member state or not. It's not a black ops force, it's a global peace keeping force that was formed specifically to oppose the SU.
Chips wrote:
Thu, 16. Dec 21, 19:19


NATO isn't the Russia police, and Ukraine isn't a NATO member.


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_68144.htm

So whether or not Trump was right about NATO has zero link to Ukraine at present.
See above, and https://dailyhistory.org/Why_was_NATO_( ... ed_in_1949
Okay, I quoted NATO's own website, you quote some other site and say NATO has been involved in wars.

I can't argue with that logic which ignores cold hard facts with whatabouttery that's irrelevant; it's just pointless. Are you saying Ukraine is in NATO? Are you saying NATO's remit isn't to defend and safeguard the freedom of member states by political and military means - but is to fight Russia?

btw Afghanistan - NATO was involved in that war because it was called to arms to defend a member nation - USA.
I don't care what flowery language they put on their mission statement, it's pretty common knowledge what the focus was of forming NATO at the end of WW2. The link I provided was just one of thousands with the similar verbiage when you search for "Why was NATO created?" There's no "whataboutery" to it. Aside from a massive nuclear arsenal, NATO is chiefly responsible for keeping the SU at bay during the cold war. Not to mention, NATO is vehemently opposed to Russian expansion.

NATO has always been a deterrent against Russia, with varying degrees of success. And yeah, keeping Russia from running roughshod over the world does "defend and safeguard the freedom of member states". But it has always stood as a united front against Russia. Afterall, Russia/SU were the only true threats to any of its member states until about 20 years ago.

Ukraine doesn't need to be a member state for NATO to involve itself in a military conflict there. That's never stopped NATO before. Hell, they even sent forces to Vietnam even though SEATO had jurisdiction over that conflict.

And btw, NATO invaded Afghanistan WITH the US and Great Britan, not just for their defense.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Fri, 17. Dec 21, 20:46

The European followers of a short-sighted Washington policy, which was only influenced by the US, slammed the window that was briefly opened to a real understanding with Moscow in the mid-1990s and the opportunity, which was at the same time the greatest fear of the Americans, of a European economic and security bloc as far as the Urals to be erected as a counterweight to China, frivolously playful. The assurance to forego a NATO presence on the Russian border, which had been given as compensation for the German unification and western reorientation of the former Warsaw Pact states, was nonchalantly "forgotten" on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by clakclak » Sat, 18. Dec 21, 19:06

EGO_Aut wrote:
Fri, 17. Dec 21, 20:46
[...]The assurance to forego a NATO presence on the Russian border, which had been given as compensation for the German unification and western reorientation of the former Warsaw Pact states, was nonchalantly "forgotten" on both sides of the Atlantic.
I have heard this a lot, but so far nobody was able to point out who gave this assurance or when it was given. Care to enlighten me?
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 11:43

clakclak wrote:
Sat, 18. Dec 21, 19:06
EGO_Aut wrote:
Fri, 17. Dec 21, 20:46
[...]The assurance to forego a NATO presence on the Russian border, which had been given as compensation for the German unification and western reorientation of the former Warsaw Pact states, was nonchalantly "forgotten" on both sides of the Atlantic.
I have heard this a lot, but so far nobody was able to point out who gave this assurance or when it was given. Care to enlighten me?
I am old enough to remember me. It was all days in the news, and was a request from RU. Maybe there is nothing in writing, but verbal commitments are also mandatory.
Simply check the news of these days.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 15:57

Was there an agreement in place to carry over agreements made with the Soviet Union after it fell? If not, why would anyone expect agreements to be held with a nation that no longer exists? Not to mention, the Warsaw Pact only applied to East Germany, not the rest of the world. Unless there's anything to the contrary, that has no bearing on Ukraine.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by EGO_Aut » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 19:49

After the unification of germany (BRD/DDR) it was decided that NATO would not expand to the east and that no new states would be admitted. Easy to understand right?
Reuters tells us another story, why are they lying.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War?

Post by Olterin » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 20:02

Regarding the alleged/supposed promise of not expanding NATO further eastward - I do recall there being some form of informal talks to this extent from my history lessons (Germany), but the English wikipedia page on the treaty of German reunification cites several different, and conflicting, positions. I unfortunately do not have it in me to investigate further at this time, but perhaps that might be a decent starting point?
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