Russia-Ukraine War

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mr.WHO
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Mon, 5. Jun 23, 14:44

The problem is that this "crawling" and raids could lasts for weeks.

Worst case scenario would be that Russia would endure those and show now real opening - in that case the counteroffensive might fail or being called off.

Early Cherson counter-offensive is good example - if Russians have enough supplies and will to stand it will be very bloody for Ukraine.

"Goodwill gestures" are so far mostly caused by logistical issues, rather than actual combat defeat or catastrofic morale collapse.

Still this bare signs of counteroffensive materializing shortly as Ukraine strikes against Russian depots have been increasing last week or two.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Mon, 5. Jun 23, 15:46

mr.WHO wrote:
Mon, 5. Jun 23, 14:44
Still this bare signs of counteroffensive materializing shortly as Ukraine strikes against Russian depots have been increasing last week or two.
There is that and the increase in destroyed artillery. So "history" repeating so far - plus the increase in partisan actions.

While it is no guarantee by itself, the equipment in use (on both sides) is also ~very~ different this time.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 07:06

Looks like Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam near Kherson.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... r-AA1cb15O

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 07:59

Yeah, even beavers start evacuating :(

videoclip reddit: beavers_have_been_spotted_in_kherson_in_the_nefte

Any hard info about a deliberate destruction by Russian forces other than the perfect timing? There are also voices about it being due to missing maintenance (e.g. reducing pressure).

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 08:00

burger1 wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 07:06
Looks like Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam near Kherson.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... r-AA1cb15O
Note that a bit further to the North-East, there is Zaporozia Nuclear Power Plant that use Dnieper river water for cooling.
Lower water level due to dam desctruction might cause water cooling problems soon.

Edit:

Ooooooh, I also forgot that with low water level - the Crimea Water Supply canal won't work!
They basically stated the siege of Crimea on their own - Great move Russia!

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Acipeo » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:32

chew-ie wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 07:59
Any hard info about a deliberate destruction by Russian forces other than the perfect timing? There are also voices about it being due to missing maintenance (e.g. reducing pressure).
Can you think of at least one reason for the destruction of the hydroelectric power station by Russian troops? Russia operates the hydroelectric gateways. If it was necessary to create a flood, they would simply open the floodgates to the fullest. In this case, the situation would be manageable.

From the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, Russia received:
1) The problem is in the power supply of the whole region.
2) The need to use a very large number of forces (including the military) to evacuate the population.
3) Future total problems with the economy of the region.
4) Now there are HUGE problems in the water supply of the Crimea.
5) The probability of an accident at the Zaporozhye NPP. Now this probability is quite high, because its cooling took place using the Kakhovka reservoir.

Russia not only has no reason to blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. For Russia, this explosion is a problem that Russia has never had before.

And who benefits from it? Think for yourself. Probably the notorious "rebels".

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Alan Phipps » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:39

... or maybe they just blew up the dam because it was one of very few good vehicle bridges across the Dnieper that any Ukraine advance could utilise to good effect and the 'side effects' had not been thought through fully.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Acipeo » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:46

Alan Phipps wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:39
... or maybe they just blew up the dam because it was one of very few good vehicle bridges across the Dnieper that any Ukraine advance could utilise to good effect and the 'side effects' had not been thought through fully.
This bridge was blown up last year when Russia left Kherson. Completely destroyed.
Last edited by Acipeo on Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Alan Phipps » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:48

The dam was a vehicle bridge.

Guardian article, fact-checked: "The bridge over the dam was one of only two crossing points over the Dnipro south of Zaporizhzia city before the war. The other, the Antonivksy road bridge at Kherson, was destroyed in November by the retreating Russians"
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Acipeo » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:50

Alan Phipps wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:48
The dam was a vehicle bridge.
There was a section, not along the dam, it was blown up last year.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kQaupR73UPg


Thus, both bridges: both Antonovsky and Kakhovsky were actually destroyed last year.
Yes, the road on the dam remained, but there was no way to drive on it.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 12:13

Flooding whole area will make it impassable swamp for a few weeks, possibly a month or two.
This would secure Russia flank and allow it to move troops other areas that need defense.

Edit:
However, past those two months, lower water level will actually be beneficial for Ukraine to make crossing...so it all depends if you look at it short or long term.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Alan Phipps » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 12:22

@ Acipeo: Correct me if I am wrong but, according to satellite imagery before and after, that was just a small span over a bypass channel to the side approaches to the dam that would be well within the capability of combat engineers to bridge. Indeed, both sides claimed to have done that damage during different phases of advance and retreat. Isn't propaganda strange.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Acipeo » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 12:37

Alan Phipps wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 12:22
@ Acipeo: Correct me if I am wrong but, according to satellite imagery before and after, that was just a small span over a bypass channel to the side approaches to the dam that would be well within the capability of combat engineers to bridge. Indeed, both sides claimed to have done that damage during different phases of advance and retreat. Isn't propaganda strange.
Ok. let's see...

https://goo.gl/maps/DDw8Qj8fmenii7Hq8

My measurement shows 60-70 meters. And most likely the bridge supports were destroyed.
I don’t know how to fix it quickly and protect it from re-destruction. But I'm not a specialist.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Acipeo » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 13:27

From some sources I read that there were no explosions at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station today at all.

At night, there was a discharge of water from the dam of the Dnipro HPP (located upstream in the city of Zaporozhye). Water dumping could be due to the need to increase electricity generation.

Kakhovskaya HPP simply could not withstand the load. The fact is that since the summer of last year, the dam has been regularly shelled. There is still not known: was this done intentionally (in order to force the Russian troops to leave Kherson), or whether it was an attack on some russian military facilities. But since then, it seems that the hydroelectric power station has not been strengthened or repaired (in the conditions of hostilities this is impossible).

In general, a combination of various factors led to the breakthrough of the dam with its further destruction.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by CBJ » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 13:31

OK, we're done here. You were given the opportunity to be part of the discussion, but after a few weeks of trying to be subtle with the "just asking questions" technique, you have gone back to straight regurgitation of propaganda. You won't be given the chance again.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 14:21

Right, so my reply is not necessary, but for our own discussion then
Acipeo wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 11:32
Can you think of at least one reason for the destruction of the hydroelectric power station by Russian troops?
Same benefit as constant shelling, shelling of hospitals, killings in Bucha. Etc.



I think with this war if anything can be destroyed, it will be.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Falcrack » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 14:57

As much as I am no fan of Russia, I think it is valid to question the cause of the dam breaking, whether it was deliberately blown up by Russia (possible), deliberately blown up by Ukraine (very unlikely IMO), and accidentally breaking due to poor maintenance and/or previous combat damage including HIMARS damage from Ukraine last year (possible). The timing is suspicious though, right as soon as Ukraine starts their big counteroffensive, which would make me suspect Russia.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 15:07

Falcrack wrote:
Tue, 6. Jun 23, 14:57
As much as I am no fan of Russia, I think it is valid to question the cause of the dam breaking, whether it was deliberately blown up by Russia (possible), deliberately blown up by Ukraine (very unlikely IMO), and accidentally breaking due to poor maintenance and/or previous combat damage including HIMARS damage from Ukraine last year (possible). The timing is suspicious though, right as soon as Ukraine starts their big counteroffensive, which would make me suspect Russia.
whether it was delibirate action or not speaks only to existance of one specific reason. Whether that reason exist, it also stands together with steps intentionally taking to reduce the maintenance to zero, that being the war itself. So did Russia choose to commit another act of destruction among the many cases of everything else it destroyed? How does one even differentiate them.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 15:10

If flood on it's own wasn't already bad:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1666050723056955392

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Tue, 6. Jun 23, 15:38

Great... that's awful -.-

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