Russia-Ukraine War

Anything not relating to the X-Universe games (general tech talk, other games...) belongs here. Please read the rules before posting.

Moderator: Moderators for English X Forum

User avatar
Observe
Posts: 5079
Joined: Fri, 30. Dec 05, 17:47
xr

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Observe » Fri, 27. Jan 23, 00:49

I wonder how long it will take for the Abrams tanks to reach Ukraine? I understand the tanks slotted for Ukraine will be new production, which is already backlogged with orders for S. Korea, Poland and others. For some reason, Ukraine won't be getting the tanks in storage that the Marines got rid of. Sounds like it could be a year or more before Ukraine sees Abrams in the field.

User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 5442
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Fri, 27. Jan 23, 14:56

2 days ago Freedom of Russia Legion partisans attacked a diesel train in Moscow.

Image

Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!

:idea: Pick your poison seed [for custom gamestarts]

User avatar
felter
Posts: 6961
Joined: Sat, 9. Nov 02, 18:13
xr

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by felter » Sun, 29. Jan 23, 01:37

I stumbled onto this, to be honest I only expected to watch the first few minutes of it, but I ended up watching it all. The topic of it is more about the lead up to the war rather than the war itself and what Putin possibly got wrong and how he got it wrong.
Florida Man Makes Announcement.
We live in a crazy world where winter heating has become a luxury item.

burger1
Posts: 3003
Joined: Fri, 21. Aug 09, 22:51
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Sun, 29. Jan 23, 04:11

It looks like Ukraine will get 321+heavy tanks at some point. The more numerous light armoured vehicles and missiles might make more of an impact. Ukraine has also increased it's long range strike abilities and other stuff by a lot and might get long range missiles and planes from allies.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/27/world/uk ... index.html

Several sites in Iran were attacked. Some were military sites. One was an ammunition factory. Oil refinery was definitely hit or just lit on fire somehow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ry-reports

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/28/midd ... index.html

User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 5442
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Tue, 31. Jan 23, 10:38

Interesting take on Putins action RE Ukraine invasions (also includes as summary about his rise to power): Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts

---

German Chancellor Scholz tries to keep calling Putin. He reported this some days ago regarding Putins's stance to a diplomatic solution:
Er werde weiterhin versuchen, in direkten Gesprächen auf den russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin einzuwirken. "Es ist an Putin, Truppen aus der Ukraine zurückzuziehen und diesen furchtbaren unsinnigen Krieg zu beenden, der schon Hunderttausenden das Leben gekostet hat." Putin mache in den Telefonaten immer wieder deutlich, dass er "sich Teile seines Nachbarlandes mit Gewalt einverleiben" wolle, was "unakzeptabel" sei, so Scholz weiter.
deepl.com translation wrote: He said he would continue to try to influence Russian President Vladimir Putin in direct talks. "It's up to Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine and end this terrible nonsensical war that has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives." Putin repeatedly made clear in phone calls that he wanted to "annex parts of his neighboring country by force," which was "unacceptable," Scholz added.
@source german state media: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/scholz ... n-103.html

Image

Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!

:idea: Pick your poison seed [for custom gamestarts]

User avatar
notaterran
Posts: 1005
Joined: Thu, 10. Sep 09, 05:22
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Tue, 31. Jan 23, 22:35

Among all the tragedies of countless Russian war crimes there's at least something positive: thanks to the heroic effort of the Ukrainians it seems that the Russian invaders cannot conquer the whole country. That's something to be grateful for, otherwise we'd be looking at World War III.
-Skinny women look good in clothes, fit women look good naked.

User avatar
notaterran
Posts: 1005
Joined: Thu, 10. Sep 09, 05:22
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Tue, 31. Jan 23, 22:54

Russia’s war against Ukraine has been a sobering wake-up call for western militaries. Three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, they are discovering they are ill-prepared for a full-intensity conflict like that in Ukraine or the one that China may unleash against Taiwan.
Link

Any guesses as to when China might want to invade Taiwan? Maybe 2025? So far it looks like Ukraine might still be a combat zone in 2025, consuming resources that might be needed to fight China.
-Skinny women look good in clothes, fit women look good naked.

Falcrack
Posts: 4929
Joined: Wed, 29. Jul 09, 00:46
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Falcrack » Wed, 1. Feb 23, 00:03

notaterran wrote:
Tue, 31. Jan 23, 22:54
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been a sobering wake-up call for western militaries. Three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, they are discovering they are ill-prepared for a full-intensity conflict like that in Ukraine or the one that China may unleash against Taiwan.
Link

Any guesses as to when China might want to invade Taiwan? Maybe 2025? So far it looks like Ukraine might still be a combat zone in 2025, consuming resources that might be needed to fight China.
If, and that's a big if, Western countries that are supporting Ukraine decided the time for half measures was over and they gave Ukraine all the conventional military support it needed to fully defeat Russia (and they totally could if they made the decision to do so), then Ukraine will not be a conflict before China invades Taiwan. In fact, if there is a robust enough response, China may decide not to invade at all, knowing that they would be fully opposed if they chose to invade.

I predict another year of half measures, dithering, and barely enough support though, so that the war will indeed continue to drag on. And by the time China decides to invade Taiwan, they will also decide to supply Russia with large scale deliveries of modern weapons so as to keep tying the West's hands in Ukraine, preventing their fully engaging against China.

burger1
Posts: 3003
Joined: Fri, 21. Aug 09, 22:51
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Wed, 1. Feb 23, 05:41

Ukraine likely to get Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) in next aid package. They seem relatively cheap at 40k each and have a range of 150 km allowing attacks on Crimea. Edit: Ukraine might not get them until late 2024 even if they are in the aid package?

From wikipedia:

In November 2022, it was considered for use during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine with the HIMARS system. Ukraine has long wanted the ATACMS missiles for their long range. The GLSDB would be a compromise giving them a range of some 150 kilometres (94 miles) using a M26 rocket engine and an SDB. Both the SDB and the M26 are common in the US arsenal. It could be delivered by early 2023 using surplus bombs from the conflict in Afghanistan. Each would cost US$40,000.[9] The price per unit for ATACMS is estimated to be well over $1M

User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 8549
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 1. Feb 23, 07:33

Falcrack wrote:
Wed, 1. Feb 23, 00:03
If, and that's a big if, Western countries that are supporting Ukraine decided the time for half measures was over and they gave Ukraine all the conventional military support it needed to fully defeat Russia (and they totally could if they made the decision to do so), then Ukraine will not be a conflict before China invades Taiwan. In fact, if there is a robust enough response, China may decide not to invade at all, knowing that they would be fully opposed if they chose to invade.

I predict another year of half measures, dithering, and barely enough support though, so that the war will indeed continue to drag on. And by the time China decides to invade Taiwan, they will also decide to supply Russia with large scale deliveries of modern weapons so as to keep tying the West's hands in Ukraine, preventing their fully engaging against China.
Just like Ukraine is on support from US + Europe, Taiwan will be on support from US +Asia.

The good news is that most of Asian countries didn't sent much to Ukraine - naval and air assets haven't been sent at all, but they will be most important for Taiwan.

The missiles stock can be dangerously low, but US seem to have noticed the issue and put a huge missiles and ammo order last year.

Now it's China running on clock - either they strike soon (before 2025) with hastly improvised manner, or wait for US to restock and Asian allies re-arm.

Either way, next 5-10 years won't be pretty.

User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 5442
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Thu, 2. Feb 23, 13:39

A glimps in the fighting around Bakhmut against the russian Invaders (Wagner mercs in particular): https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/01/euro ... index.html
“We were fighting for about 10 hours in a row. And it wasn’t like just waves, it was uninterrupted. So it was just like they didn’t stop coming.”
“Our machine gunner was almost getting crazy, because he was shooting at them. And he said, I know I shot him, but he doesn’t fall. And then after some time, when he maybe bleeds out, so he just falls down.”

Image

Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!

:idea: Pick your poison seed [for custom gamestarts]

burger1
Posts: 3003
Joined: Fri, 21. Aug 09, 22:51
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Sun, 5. Feb 23, 07:10

Bridge construction factory blown up in Russia.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ea-bridge/

Local media reported that the plant produces spare parts for bridges and was expected to help reconstruct the Kerch Strait Bridge.

Russia producing more nuclear weapons or moving them around? Everyone seems to ignore nuclear treaties anyways.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-s ... =home-page

The lack of inspections has also made it harder to verify the number of warheads Russia has deployed under the accord, the State Department added.

The Biden administration is eager to preserve the New START treaty, which is the last major agreement regulating the nuclear competition between the two sides, and is pressing Russia to correct the violations.

User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 8549
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Sun, 5. Feb 23, 15:59

Another deep dive Perun video.

Resupplying Ukraine: Arms, Aid & Escalation - What, Who, & What might be next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj9HD8MdAFs

burger1
Posts: 3003
Joined: Fri, 21. Aug 09, 22:51
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Sun, 5. Feb 23, 20:44

Russia/Iran planning on building a drone production factory in Russia?

User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 5442
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Sun, 5. Feb 23, 21:04

burger1 wrote:
Sun, 5. Feb 23, 20:44
Russia/Iran planning on building a drone production factory in Russia?
Also read about it Wall street journal.
(can be de-paywalled with e.g. archive.vn)

So - if it's out now on the media this means the factory is already build / near completion?

---

That tank deal europe was so quick to blame Germany for "blocking"? Well, seems like after the "approval" of Germany not a lot is happening. Seems to be what I thought - just powerplay & election campaigns. :(

Source: comment@taz (german left news) https://taz.de/Kampfpanzer-fuer-die-Ukraine/!5910797/

Image

Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!

:idea: Pick your poison seed [for custom gamestarts]

User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 8549
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 7. Feb 23, 17:26

According to Der Spiegel, Germany will give 178 Leopard 1 to Ukraine.

Along with other more modern tanks, this is not bad to gain some material mass - albeit Russians will probably meme it just like we meme theirs T-62.

Warenwolf
Posts: 1668
Joined: Wed, 13. Apr 05, 04:22
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Thu, 9. Feb 23, 13:25

As predicted by Ukrainian intel, Kremlin offensive* seems to have kicked of earlier today according to Institute for Study of War. It involves attacks on rather wide front.

From their release:
Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week, and Russian sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna. Geolocated combat footage has confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichne area northwest of Svatove. Russian military command additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as ISW previously reported.
Image below shows the map (apparently too big for the forum so only link available)
https://i.imgur.com/eSp1oyA.png

Also TASS reports** that Moscow's special op may "turn to Europe":
"If the special military operation hadn’t been launched, we would have heard explosions right under our windows. The use of heavy weapons [in Ukraine] will oblige us to march closer to Europe in order to protect them from [US President Joe] Biden, and European leaders. And they should understand that our people, Russian citizens, are united here. So those who were scared headed for the exits, but those who are cognizant of their responsibility are here to stay," the senior lawmaker assured.
The last two sentences may seem strange from an parliament member but the number of Russians leaving the country must be sizeable enough to not be ignored.
Apparently 200 000 Russians left the Russia just for Serbia during the last year. Add to this Turkey and countries to the south east and you get rather many potential armies gone.



*Sources:
Spoiler
Show
“We’ve observed that the Russian occupation forces are redeploying additional assault groups, units, weapons, and military equipment to the east,” Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andriy Chernyak told the Kyiv Post on February 1.
"Their orders were to capture the remaining parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, known as the Donbas, by March", Chernyak said.


Quote from Al Jazeera article.
**https://tass.com/politics/1574125
Last edited by CBJ on Thu, 9. Feb 23, 13:31, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Oversized image replaced with link

Falcrack
Posts: 4929
Joined: Wed, 29. Jul 09, 00:46
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Falcrack » Thu, 9. Feb 23, 17:40

Russia attempting large scale offensives is something that, while horrific, plays right into Ukraine's hands. It intensifies the scale and rate of delivery of weapons to Ukraine, and exhausts Russian troops as they are thrown into the meatgrinder. Ukraine can inflict far greater casualties on Russia by maintaining defensive positions. After Russia has bled itself out on the latest offensive, it makes it easier for Ukraine to launch the next counteroffensive.

If Russia had decided instead to simply sit on its gains and not try to take more territory, and only defend from here on out, that would perhaps paradoxically seem to me the more dire situation for Ukraine. By going all in on their current attack, they are ensuring their ultimate defeat.

User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 8549
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 9. Feb 23, 18:41

I wouldn't open a champagne bottle yet.
If Russia put all this reorganization and resources to push through the most well defended part of the front, then Russian command took "special" from "special operation" well too much to another level.


I think it's more likely, this is just a "fake offensive", just like 2-3 day strike on Zaporozia front a week or two ago.
Last edited by mr.WHO on Thu, 9. Feb 23, 20:24, edited 1 time in total.

Warenwolf
Posts: 1668
Joined: Wed, 13. Apr 05, 04:22
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Thu, 9. Feb 23, 20:05

mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 9. Feb 23, 18:41

I think it's more likely, this is just a "fake offensive", just like 2-3 day strike on Zaporozia front a week or two ago.
Authoritarian regimes may very well declare an offensive for being a "diversionary offensive" when it fails and a historic strategic victory if it succeeds...(lets say Kremlin forces find a weak line of the front and have enough reserve to to focus on it and exploit the opportunity provided that the axis of advance open up for new opportunities as situation develops).
So you may very well prove "prophetic" - but it may be due to wrong reasons.

Falcrack wrote:
Thu, 9. Feb 23, 17:40
By going all in on their current attack, they are ensuring their ultimate defeat.
I would be vary of making predictions which way this war would go this early. Unless something dramatically happens on the political front (US screws up as usual due to their tribalism or Putin falls down the window) this war will last long time.

Post Reply

Return to “Off Topic English”