Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

So much for Russia destroying the Patriot system, while it was damaged it has already been fully repaired and is once again up and running. Must have been attacked by one of those drones that was used to try and assassinate Putin.

[chew-ie]

More russian army withdrawals reported by both Ukraine and Wagner @Bakhmut, along with Russia acknowledging some of them. Ukraine also stated that their adavances aren't justified by their deployed forces / material. (as in there shouldn't be such a large gain)

@source: Reuters: russian-forces-retreat-near-bakhmut-ukraine-wagner-say-2023-05-18

[mr.WHO]

Somehow, I start to enjoy the art of kitbashing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g0AtmzhOKY

[mr.WHO]

Good news about F-16:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65649471


Bad news...what is left on the checklist? Aren't we running out of items?

F-15?
F-18?
A-10?
Some naval assets to finally beat back the Black Sea fleet?

[Falcrack]

Good news about F-16:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65649471


Bad news...what is left on the checklist? Aren't we running out of items?

F-15?
F-18?
A-10?
Some naval assets to finally beat back the Black Sea fleet?

Just more of what has already been given or pledged to be given (ie F-16s and Abrams) should do the trick, no more need for newer weapons systems.

[fiksal]

one last thing left, don't require Ukraine not attack on Russian territory.

it's not realistic

[Falcrack]

one last thing left, don't require Ukraine not attack on Russian territory.

it's not realistic

Indeed, especially if we are talking about F-16s, they should be able to shoot down inbound Russian bombers using long range AA missiles, even if those bombers are still over Russian territory. I do think however that Ukraine should refrain from attempting any territorial gains inside Russian territory. Some Russian commentators speculate that Ukraine might try to take Belgorad for example as a bargaining chip. While I think that is ludicrous and simply propaganda for the Russian population to get them more worked up about the war, Ukraine would be wise to refrain from contemplating such a strategy.

[fiksal]

taking Russian cities is silly, it can turn the same way as Russian invasion.

however liberating Donbass isn't silly. Disabling military in or around Rostov is good sense.

disabling military targets anywhere in Russia is also good sense

taking control of Crimea can be realistic too, even though months ago I thought it'd not be a good idea. What do I know though, as discussed before Russia made it fair game.


planting flag in Moscow? I rather see new Russian two color flag than Ukrainian (or anything other than past ones), but let's watch it I guess, we can be flexible.

[Chips]

one last thing left, don't require Ukraine not attack on Russian territory.

it's not realistic

Indeed, especially if we are talking about F-16s, they should be able to shoot down inbound Russian bombers using long range AA missiles, even if those bombers are still over Russian territory. I do think however that Ukraine should refrain from attempting any territorial gains inside Russian territory. Some Russian commentators speculate that Ukraine might try to take Belgorad for example as a bargaining chip. While I think that is ludicrous and simply propaganda for the Russian population to get them more worked up about the war, Ukraine would be wise to refrain from contemplating such a strategy.

They won't - they may *strike* depots or such like in Russia, but if they attempted to invade:
1) Ukraine becomes an aggressor, no longer just defender.
2) Russia hits it's "now we can absolutely use Nuclear and no-one can criticise because it's always our policy"

So it's balderdash. Or likely utter balderdash. Ukraine knows it's got support in its defensive war.

F16 is plentiful, multi-role aircraft used within EU, with weapons and support; EU countries already making noises they'll furnish, so great choice.
F18/F15 is not used by EU countries. A10 is USA only.
On top of that, they're made by various manufacturers (all different I think) and therefore would require multiple strands of support, supply chain, trainings, and so on. It's very sub-optimal to do so because those on one likely can't switch to another without training.

[Chips]

Some chap on the TV pointed out that even sourcing the F16 from Europe may not be as simple as all that anyway! Different "block" versions exist within and between nations, and some may not even have all their F16's upgraded to the same block. So it may not even be as simple as "well, one platform simplifies!" as ... it's not that simple As some nations are looking to replace their F16's with F35's anyway, though, there's a chance they may get enough (20-30 he was saying - retired Air Vice Marshall) of a single block from a single nation.

[mr.WHO]

To some extend it similar to different nations operating different versions of T-72, Leopard 2 or Mig-29 - it wasn't a problem for Ukraine so far.

I recall they use what they can and once equipment is broken they are doing makeshift standarization during repair/servicing.

[chew-ie]

Hot times @Belgorod region - russian partisans not only sabotage trains anymore but openly attacking.

@source theguardian.com anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinka

[Alan Phipps]

That type of activity could be a double-edged sword though. It would be trivial for the Kremlin to assert that the 'partisans' are backed by and infiltrated by Western/Ukranian Special Forces and then use it as an excuse for all sorts of escalations and punitive actions that otherwise may have been considered too likely to damage whatever current internal/external support they have.

[mr.WHO]

Yes, if they try to push and hold the terrain - this could consolidate Russians.

However, I think this is just a diversion to distract Russians and force them to relocate more forces to guard the borders (analog to what Russia was doing at Belarus-Ukraine border).
Simple, short and clean (no warcrimes!) raid shouldn't be a problem.

I was thinking where Ukraine could launch a diversion and Belogrod seem like good but crazy direction.


Hopefully this means proper counteroffensive at different front is near.

[Falcrack]

I can't help but feel that these attacks near Belgorad, even if entirely carried out by Russian partisans, will turn out badly for Ukraine. Are they using equipment supplied by Ukraine? Are there Ukrainian nationals in their ranks? It is this sort of thing which could cause international support for Ukraine to dry up. It is one thing to provide weapons to Ukraine to restore their recognized borders, it is another for Western supplied weapons to be used in support of an offensive beyond the internationally recognized 1991 borders.

I hope it is a false flag. If not, I hope they will retreat to the border and not continue a push deeper into Russian territory, using weapons supplied by the West with the intention to defend Ukraine.

[chew-ie]

Not sure how much is known [here, in this thread] about the partisan movement in russia - but it is going on for months now. Those open raids are just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak.

[Alan Phipps]

I don't doubt the sincerity and fervour of the partisans; it is just what spin the Kremlin could put on it in the internal and international arenas and to what ends, that could be worrying.

[Falcrack]

Attacks by partisans deep within Russia without an attempt to seize land are one thing. Attacks from the border of Ukraine, with a goal to hold territory, and which are quite possibly supplied with military hardware that was originally donated by the West, will possibly discourage further arms deliveries, which would not be a good outcome for Ukraine at all.

[felter]

There were two groups involved, The Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps. The Liberty of Russia Legion are Ukrainian Russians who probably lived in Ukraine to get away from the Russian regime and are now back into the Russian fold and are not happy about it, even though they are from Ukraine and operate mainly from Ukraine they have nothing to do with Ukraine, or it's government. The Russian Volunteer Corps as far as I'm aware are actual Russians who live in Russia, also as far as I heard they were the ones responsible for the attack on the Kremlin and that attack was a message for Putin to be afraid and it worked.

This is what I've been talking about when I said there is going to be fighting inside Russia, just not sure who is going to be fighting who. I honestly think Putin has made a serious mistake as he has pitted his armed services against each other and a PMC, as at the end of the day one or more of them are going to go screw you and join the fight for the opposition. I also think it's only a matter of time that some of those Russian conscripts are going to join the fight for the partisans, and it's Putin who armed them, all 300,000 of them. And the rest of the world is going to sit back and watch, I doubt many will come to his aid.

[Acipeo]

Hot times @Belgorod region - russian partisans not only sabotage trains anymore but openly attacking.

@source theguardian.com anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinka

This article is missing a couple of minor details.
1) These partisans drove from Ukrainian territory on American military vehicle (HMMWV and International MaxxPro). There is photo and video evidence of this.
2) They drove through the border checkpoint (killing the border guards) with the support of the Ukrainian T-72 tank. I did not find evidence here, except for one video in which a Ukrainian tank passes next to the partisans in the parking lot before crossing the border.

So... there are at least 4 questions:
1) Where do ordinary Russian partisans get American military equipment?
2) Is it true that the Ukrainian command has nothing to do with this?
3) If the answer to question 2 is "yes", then where did the Russian partisans get the Ukrainian tank from?
4) How does the US administration feel about the fact that their weapons are being transferred to an unknown group of people who are not connected with the Ukrainian command?