Coronavirus: COVID-19

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mr.WHO
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 14:15

Seem like my theory of hybrid vacine-natural approach might have some scientific backing already:

"Previous Infection Combined with Vaccination Produces Neutralizing Antibodies with Potency against SARS-CoV-2 Variants"
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.02656-21


TLDR version:
"Overall, these findings indicated that the combination of natural infection and vaccination drove antibody potency to an apparent maximum for all tested variants."

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by exogenesis » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 21:16

Hmmm...
mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 13:22
.snip.

Honestly, a do-nothing, business as usual aproach with minimal 2-3 week lockdowns at the peaks would be more effective - health wise and economy wise.
What are you smoking ??
I think nearly all the medical research & real-world observation & info from historical pandemic would disagree.
mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 14:15
Seem like my theory of hybrid vacine-natural approach might have some scientific backing already:

"Previous Infection Combined with Vaccination Produces Neutralizing Antibodies with Potency against SARS-CoV-2 Variants"
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.02656-21


TLDR version:
"Overall, these findings indicated that the combination of natural infection and vaccination drove antibody potency to an apparent maximum for all tested variants."
Ignoring the mad 'do-nothing' theory,
I was seeing the actual info here about 5 months ago :
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=421591&start=1845#p5069341
i.e.
"you're significantly 'stronger' for having been infected (& not die) & jabbed, than just being vaccinated alone"

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:24

exogenesis wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 21:16
What are you smoking ??
I think nearly all the medical research & real-world observation & info from historical pandemic would disagree.
Historically speaking, none of previous global/continental pademics had population wide obesity, sugar and significant percentage of population being old or elderly.
COVID is very first in such unique environment.
Last edited by mr.WHO on Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:25

I just hope that nobody is persuaded by social media misinformation to deliberately encourage their family to become infected with Covid. This is not like your average pre-school child catching chickenpox from playmates and the parents remaining unconcerned if not somewhat relieved that it is all done and dusted while still with trivial symptoms and impact.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by exogenesis » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:39

I don't think anyone (sensible) is advocating deliberately infecting indivduals (or the population),
*apart from the UK government's intial pandemic 'thoughts' about allowing herd immunity to happen*,
it's just the indications are that if you happen to have been infected before(/after?) vaccination,
your immune response is significantly stronger.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by felter » Sun, 19. Dec 21, 17:15

I heard what is probably the most honest interview from an expert talking about the new Omicron variant of the covid virus. He said something along the lines of, all these people talking about how the virus is not as bad or that it is worse than the Delta variant don't know what they are talking about, because we do not know how good or bad it is. We don't know how effective the vaccines will be against it, or even if it is effective. Right now we just do not know anything, what we do know, is that there are currently 75 people in hospital right now and 7 have died from the Omicron variant, but they were infected 2 weeks ago.

Basically, he called them all out for talking out the wrong hole, that they cannot possibly know as it takes time to gather this sort of information, and currently we have not had that time to evaluate the information and come up with the answers. That is as an honest answer as you can get, we just don't know. You have to think though, 2 weeks ago there were only around 7 known infections of the Omicron variant in the UK, so on that front things are probably not looking too good for around the end of the year, as there are known to be around 37k Omicron cases right now with 12k recorded in the past 24 hours. But like he said, we just don't know, only time will tell.

Another good one I heard was the booster will not help with the right now or the end of the year, as they have already been infected but hopefully it will help with the future, so get boosted. It's like those idiots that have ended up in hospital who haven't been vaccinated asking for the vaccine, a little bit late after the fact and pointless to boot.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Axeface » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 16:08

I actually think that if a country has it under control and also has a high presence of antibodies and vaccination that now might be the time for a "do-nothing" approach? Isnt actually do-nothing, its reactionary. If it isnt now then when is it? Omicron isnt going to be the last strain.
Here in Uruguay we have 78% of the population fully vaccinated and half of those with booster.
Children have been going to school normally for like a year now (secondary school kids mask mandatory, younger obviously not), and only now is there talk of vaccinating the youngest (teens have non-mandatory vaccine offer for about 6 months now). Covid has been circulating in the young and healthy for a very long time. Bars have been open a long time now and now clubs are fully open, I havent seen any stats but I think I can assume that the young have significant natural immunity built up, especially small children. Along with the massive amount of vaccinated we are surely at herd immunity now?

The fallout of anticovid measures are not insignificant. Mental health. Economic impact (this is going to be a big one for a very long time). Sedentary lifestyles. Over sanitation. These things are going to have large impacts in the forseeable future imo and many people are going to suffer and die due to them. My (4) kid gets his hands bathed in alcohol gel every single day he goes to nursery, its is ridiculous and its been going on for too long now - I saw some research into over-sanitation once, right now I cant seem to find it, but its not good. I genuinely worry about the development of his immune system. There are many other concerns too, his teachers use masks all the time and my boy is autistic, he 4 years old and cant even see his teachers faces to learn and help develop his social skills... he missed over a year of nursery because of this... the list goes on. I really want to return to normality and unless someone can show me something that says otherwise, isnt now the 'safest' time to actually become much more lax? Immunity from vaccines will start fading soon too, if it hasnt already.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 16:57

@ Axeface: The problem with that impression is that none (or at least very, very few) of the expert health officials and scientists in the appropriate fields would agree with it. In fact they pretty much would like to see the exact opposite in imposing even harder restrictions here in the UK. Also, yes they do appreciate and recognise the other (mental, economic, education and livelihood) aspects of living under strict restrictions but they consider the long-term threat from unchecked and evolving Covid to be the more serious.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Tamina » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 17:00

@Axeface From the tiny samples so far it seems that none of the vaccinations are effective against Omicron. Roughly only every third fully vaccinated AND boosted person is protected. I don't think Omicron is going to be the last strain.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by clakclak » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 17:55

Lets hope that eventually countries like Germany will stop their opposition to a patent waiver on vaccines. I know vaccines are not the end all solution, but helping more countries gain access to them would be a good step in the right direction.

Btw, if anyone has any further ideas how a single citizen can put pressure on politicians to finally change their mind I am very open.

So far I tried:

- Writing open latters to my representative along with other people in his constituency

- Voting for a party in favour of a patent waiver

- Attending demonstrations in favour of a patent waiver

- Signing petition in favour of a patent waiver


However these calls for action have been met with either indifference or downright hostility.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by red assassin » Mon, 20. Dec 21, 17:58

Axeface wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 16:08
Along with the massive amount of vaccinated we are surely at herd immunity now?
I cannot emphasise enough the extent to which this is not true. The UK has 90% of the population over 12 with one dose, 82% with two, and 50% with a booster (though the booster rollout is happening in a big way right now, so a lot of people who've had it won't have full protection yet). Those are good numbers!

Here's a chart of cases in London (src):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FG5y5V1WUAQVKsk?format=jpg

Evidence so far also doesn't suggest that omicron is any less dangerous than delta. It seems highly likely that the UK will be back in lockdown after Christmas to try and control it (and frankly, that's knowingly too late to avoid the political fallout from cancelling Christmas again).

This is going to happen everywhere, sooner rather than later. As ever, the bare minimum level of control measures is "whatever stops the healthcare system completely imploding", because the death counts start spiralling as soon as you don't have ICU space for every patient (whether covid or some other acute medicine!). Right now, that means more control measures, not less.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Axeface » Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59

red assassin wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 17:58
Axeface wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 16:08
Along with the massive amount of vaccinated we are surely at herd immunity now?
I cannot emphasise enough the extent to which this is not true. The UK has 90% of the population over 12 with one dose, 82% with two, and 50% with a booster (though the booster rollout is happening in a big way right now, so a lot of people who've had it won't have full protection yet). Those are good numbers!
Trying to understand your assertion. Do you mean that about 80% fully vaccinated + naturally achieved immunity doesnt equate to an r rate of less than 1 for covid and its variants? (That is my understanding of 'herd immunity'). I was under the impression that about 80% vaccinated was very much within those standards. I'de appreciate anyone that can fill me in about it, but I assumed that the infection rates plummeting meant that some semblance of herd immunity was reached (if you go to google and type 'Uruguay covid infection rate graph' you will see a pretty impressive plummet after massive vaccination efforts, and please appreciate that this plummet was during winter here).

Anyway. Summer is here, and people are about to all get together for xmas and beach time (my family are gathering at my house), if a spike is going to happen here its going to be next week. I guess we will see about omicron within the next few weeks because uruguayans love to socialise.

Also, your stated figures for the UK are much higher than i'm seeing, where are you getting those statistics? (perhaps widespread info is wrong, please dont assume i dont trust what you are saying). Personally I get them from just googling or from my UK based family (for the record im English emigrated to Uruguay a decade ago).
Tamina wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 17:00
@Axeface From the tiny samples so far it seems that none of the vaccinations are effective against Omicron. Roughly only every third fully vaccinated AND boosted person is protected. I don't think Omicron is going to be the last strain.
I heard the opposite about that :o can you link me something? Also perhaps you misread but I said that omicron is NOT going to be the last, by a long shot. How many strains of the flu are there?
When you say 'protected' what do you mean they said exactly? Do you mean from hospitalisation? Death?
For example, here in Uruguay we got sinovac, and there was an obvious attempt by other nations and corps to say it was less effective. BUT, in the end it was massively effective at preventing severe disease, it just wasnt AS effective as other vaccines at preventing transmission, but still fairly effective at that too. (I got 2x sinovac + 1x pfiser).

Alan Phipps wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 16:57
@ Axeface: The problem with that impression is that none (or at least very, very few) of the expert health officials and scientists in the appropriate fields would agree with it. In fact they pretty much would like to see the exact opposite in imposing even harder restrictions here in the UK. Also, yes they do appreciate and recognise the other (mental, economic, education and livelihood) aspects of living under strict restrictions but they consider the long-term threat from unchecked and evolving Covid to be the more serious.
My personal and perhaps completely incorrect belief about that is that no scientist is prepared to go on the line and say "Yes, X amount of people will die in the short term but the impact of covid in the long term will be much larger" because they will be demonised and attacked in the short term. It is much easier to be harsh than nuanced, and nuance is what we need to deal with this imo.
Government and related groups are also absolutely salivating at the increased power that this whole situation presents to them and the political shift that is occurring, its very difficult for scientists to operate independently-of-thought as they should be able to in the current climate of public-backed assertion of power, and this is terrifying to me. As soon as science is gagged or controlled it is no longer science.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by CBJ » Thu, 23. Dec 21, 10:22

Axeface wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59
Also, your stated figures for the UK are much higher than i'm seeing, where are you getting those statistics? (perhaps widespread info is wrong, please dont assume i dont trust what you are saying).
The official UK figures are here. If you're seeing lower numbers, it's probably because the figures used for international comparison are based on the percentage of the total population rather than the percentage of those over 12. The total population figure makes more sense in the international context, because the age of eligibility for vaccines varies in different countries. Note that redassassin did state which figure he was using in his reply, as does the site I linked.
Axeface wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59
When you say 'protected' what do you mean they said exactly? Do you mean from hospitalisation? Death?
The reason you're getting conflicting messages here is simply that definitive answers aren't known yet. Science takes time, and there hasn't been enough time since the emergence of the new variant for full large-scale studies to have been conducted. The problem is that the media, and the public, want answers now and when scientists say "we don't have good data on that yet", people clutch at whatever they can find, which usually ends up being somewhere between not-so-good data and utter nonsense. The small-scale, non-peer-reviewed studies that have appeared so far suggest that the new variant may result in fewer hospitalisations, but all the reputable reports have clearly stated that this cannot be relied upon, and that until we have more accurate data, we shouldn't assume anything.
Axeface wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59
Government and related groups are also absolutely salivating at the increased power that this whole situation presents to them and the political shift that is occurring, its very difficult for scientists to operate independently-of-thought as they should be able to in the current climate of public-backed assertion of power, and this is terrifying to me. As soon as science is gagged or controlled it is no longer science.
I'm not sure where you are getting this idea, particularly the part about the scientists being gagged or controlled. That might be happening in some parts of the world, but in many others the scientists are at the absolute forefront of the news, and the profile of science is getting a pretty substantial boost. In the UK, people like Chris Whitty and Jonathan Van-Tam have become iconic figures during the pandemic, presenting information honestly and clearly to the public, in some cases even when the politicians standing right next to them are saying something different.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Mailo » Thu, 23. Dec 21, 10:58

red assassin wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 17:58
Axeface wrote:
Mon, 20. Dec 21, 16:08
Along with the massive amount of vaccinated we are surely at herd immunity now?
I cannot emphasise enough the extent to which this is not true. The UK has 90% of the population over 12 with one dose, 82% with two, and 50% with a booster (though the booster rollout is happening in a big way right now, so a lot of people who've had it won't have full protection yet). Those are good numbers
CBJ wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 10:22
Axeface wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59
Also, your stated figures for the UK are much higher than i'm seeing, where are you getting those statistics? (perhaps widespread info is wrong, please dont assume i dont trust what you are saying).
The official UK figures are here. If you're seeing lower numbers, it's probably because the figures used for international comparison are based on the percentage of the total population rather than the percentage of those over 12. The total population figure makes sense in the international context, because the age of eligibility for vaccines varies in different countries. Note that redassassin did state which figure he was using in his reply, as does the site I linked.
The internationally comparable numbers (percentage of total population vaccinated) are: 75% with one dose, 69% with two and 45% with a booster. These are not good numbers, even Germany is doing better (and we REALLY suck at vaccinations). According to the Google "Vaccinations by locations" list that is 45th place.
The reason why the British government does not use these figures, but rather the one it actually shows is pretty clear, it makes them look better and keeps the lie that Britain has the best vaccination program in Europe thanks to Brexit going. Never mind that this costs lives because people will falsely assume things about herd immunity ...

Regarding the censoring, I read an article this morning that some scientists have started to self-censor and understate the seriousness, since their faces got plastered over tabloid front pages the last time they reported accurately. That is frightening, but has nothing to do with too much government influence, rather the opposite, with too much mob influence.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by red assassin » Thu, 23. Dec 21, 12:05

Axeface wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59
Trying to understand your assertion. Do you mean that about 80% fully vaccinated + naturally achieved immunity doesnt equate to an r rate of less than 1 for covid and its variants? (That is my understanding of 'herd immunity'). I was under the impression that about 80% vaccinated was very much within those standards. I'de appreciate anyone that can fill me in about it, but I assumed that the infection rates plummeting meant that some semblance of herd immunity was reached (if you go to google and type 'Uruguay covid infection rate graph' you will see a pretty impressive plummet after massive vaccination efforts, and please appreciate that this plummet was during winter here).
Whether you hit a herd immunity threshold is affected by both a) how infectious the disease is (incredibly, in omicron's case - it seems to be up there with the notoriously infectious measles) and b) how effective an individual's immunity is. It's not sufficient to say person x has had vaccines/the disease, therefore they are immune - it also matters how much less likely somebody who has some immunity is to actually get it. In this case, both having had it previously and having had a two-dose vaccination reduce your chances of getting it, but not hugely so (though the protection against severe disease is better). Having both had it and had two vaccinations, or having had three doses of vaccinations, produces much better results, though still not perfect.

The upshot of this is no, you can't just assume that n% of the population having some level of immunity means we're done, especially with the continued emergence of variants.
Axeface wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 03:59
Government and related groups are also absolutely salivating at the increased power that this whole situation presents to them and the political shift that is occurring,
This is an incredibly dangerous line of thinking. Nobody is using the pandemic as an excuse to implement authoritarian controls and the idea that they are is conspiratorial bull that relies on wildly incorrect assertions that the pandemic isn't a problem. The biggest problem we've had with pandemic response in a lot of democratic nations is governments being unwilling to take enough action - for example, our government faces internal rebellions any time they try and do anything about the pandemic, which means that every time they act it's weeks too late when the situation has got severe enough that nobody can deny there's a problem. The result is preventable deaths, preventable strain on the healthcare system, and longer lockdowns through failure to head problems off early.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by pjknibbs » Thu, 23. Dec 21, 12:48

red assassin wrote:
Thu, 23. Dec 21, 12:05
The biggest problem we've had with pandemic response in a lot of democratic nations is governments being unwilling to take enough action
Case in point, the government is currently terrified of being accused of "cancelling Christmas" which is why they're not introducing stricter measures to control Omicron right now, even though they probably ought to be given the number of cases.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 24. Dec 21, 15:09

Got the booster shot of Moderna yesterday (Got J&J as first shot) and damn good way to ruin Christmas.

For like 10 hours after shot i felt nothing, but then in the middle of the night i got super crazy fever.
I felt really cold despite rolled in blanket in warm room, then it switch to feel real hot for next 10 minute. Rinse and repeat it for 6 hours.

Now Im good, but feel really exchausted.

**** Moderna, I will never get it again.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by euclid » Fri, 24. Dec 21, 15:27

mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 24. Dec 21, 15:09
Got the booster shot of Moderna yesterday (Got J&J as first shot) and damn good way to ruin Christmas.

For like 10 hours after shot i felt nothing, but then in the middle of the night i got super crazy fever.
I felt really cold despite rolled in blanket in warm room, then it switch to feel real hot for next 10 minute. Rinse and repeat it for 6 hours.

Now Im good, but feel really exchausted.

**** Moderna, I will never get it again.
Same symptoms after the Moderna boost for me and Missus. Ibuprofen helped a lot; try it.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 24. Dec 21, 15:38

Yeah, i heard the ibuprofen thing after the fact.
Definetly gonna try it next time.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Fri, 24. Dec 21, 16:50

I think I've identified the latest pandemic stocking up issue - Lateral Flow Tests. As at today you can't order them because they are out of stock and no pharmacies in my area have any either. We were told only last week that there were plenty to go round for everybody, so where did they all go?
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