Russia-Ukraine War

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mr.WHO
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 08:03

notaterran wrote:
Mon, 23. Jan 23, 23:52
Link

Russia must be very worried that Western tanks could alter the current balance. The Germans' hesitation about tanks must be good news for the Kremlin.
They write/say this at every single new weapon type deal and don't do anything.



This will not alter the ballance.
Sending western tanks/IFV and the sending ex-soviet planes/gunship will be enough just to even the odds with mobilized Russia in 2023.

Western planes and long range missiles are the last on the list and the only thing that will tip the ballance on Ukraine side.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 19:32

Seems like events move at a unprecedented speed right now..

...Poland finally formally asked about Leopard issue
...Germany sending 1214 Leopards
...US sending Abrams
...Switzerland allowing [ammunition] exports ("Lex Ukraine")

:o
Last edited by chew-ie on Tue, 24. Jan 23, 19:59, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 19:55

The news say, Germany sends 14 Leopard 2A6. So not totally outdated.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 20:56

Sweden will also send CV90 IFVs and Archer howitzers.

After this war, ukrainian quartermasters will be like a walking encyclopedia for military equipment from XX and XXI century.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 21:42

Interesting, first does the PiS in Poland act as if they absolutely wanted to send tanks and blocked Germany, then it turns out that they didn't even make the request, and now at the end of the day they want compensation.
Serious, the EU should stick together better.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 21:59

EGO_Aut wrote:
Tue, 24. Jan 23, 21:42
Serious, the EU should stick together better.
Despite arguing, seem like EU, UK and US seem to work quite well.

Reading the letters and history books from WW2, allied leaders argued and had heated discussion as much, if not worse.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 22:07

EGO_Aut wrote:
Tue, 24. Jan 23, 21:42
Interesting, first does the PiS in Poland act as if they absolutely wanted to send tanks and blocked Germany, then it turns out that they didn't even make the request, and now at the end of the day they want compensation.
Serious, the EU should stick together better.
PiS's major selling point is Anti-German rethoric. That is their thing. That was their thing before the war when they bonded with Hungary so much but - just another case of "be annoying"-powerplay.
Last edited by Tamina on Tue, 24. Jan 23, 23:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Und wenn ein Forenbösewicht, was Ungezogenes spricht, dann hol' ich meinen Kaktus und der sticht sticht sticht.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Tue, 24. Jan 23, 23:14

EGO_Aut wrote:
Tue, 24. Jan 23, 21:42
Interesting, first does the PiS in Poland act as if they absolutely wanted to send tanks and blocked Germany, then it turns out that they didn't even make the request, and now at the end of the day they want compensation.
Serious, the EU should stick together better.
Poland has its parliamentary elections this year, this is all just postering gearing up for the elections. PiS would have held any decision against Germany, no matter what Germany does. Germany could gift its entire tank fleet to Ukraine over night and PiS would still find a way to complain about it.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Vertigo 7 » Wed, 25. Jan 23, 06:21

US is sending Abrams to Ukraine. Of course, it's not going to be an over night thing and only a few dozen at that. Still, its good its happening. If I'm not mistaken, I believe that was one of the conditions for Germany to send tanks into Ukraine as well. Hopefully they follow suit now.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Wed, 25. Jan 23, 07:33

Surprised Pikachu @Russia regarding the tank deliveries:
Anatoli Antonow, russian diplomat wrote: Es sei offensichtlich, dass die Regierung in Washington gezielt auf eine strategische Niederlage Russlands hinwirke.
rough translation wrote:It's obvoius now that Washington is aiming for a strategic defeat of Russia
@source German state media: https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/li ... h-209.html

Soo.. yes, indeed - that's what this is about. Repelling the Russian invasion which started one year ago. This never was a secret 🙂

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 25. Jan 23, 08:24

clakclak wrote:
Tue, 24. Jan 23, 23:14
Poland has its parliamentary elections this year, this is all just postering gearing up for the elections. PiS would have held any decision against Germany, no matter what Germany does. Germany could gift its entire tank fleet to Ukraine over night and PiS would still find a way to complain about it.
It's not only ruling party, but oposition parties (which are usually Germany-friendly) as well starts to be very dissapointed and cold towards Germany.

The problem is that for years, multiple things like Nord Stream gave as flashbacks to Ribbentrop-Molotov.
The way Germany is acting make us think, they still want to get back to "business as usual" the moment war stop.
That's why in general the idea is to beat them with every single little thing, till you beat the hell out any funny ideas.

This will probably continue for several years, till we are sure there is no "back to business" with Putinist Russia (or any other aggresive leader which will replace him).

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Wed, 25. Jan 23, 09:34

Edit: Nevermind I was wrong.
mr.WHO wrote:
Wed, 25. Jan 23, 08:24
clakclak wrote:
Tue, 24. Jan 23, 23:14
Poland has its parliamentary elections this year, this is all just postering gearing up for the elections. PiS would have held any decision against Germany, no matter what Germany does. Germany could gift its entire tank fleet to Ukraine over night and PiS would still find a way to complain about it.
It's not only ruling party, but oposition parties (which are usually Germany-friendly) as well starts to be very dissapointed and cold towards Germany.

The problem is that for years, multiple things like Nord Stream gave as flashbacks to Ribbentrop-Molotov.
The way Germany is acting make us think, they still want to get back to "business as usual" the moment war stop.
That's why in general the idea is to beat them with every single little thing, till you beat the hell out any funny ideas.

This will probably continue for several years, till we are sure there is no "back to business" with Putinist Russia (or any other aggresive leader which will replace him).
Seems like there has to be a bit of a new dialogue between Germany and Poland to overcome old devisions, which are understandable to say the least. The issue, however, is that with how charged the polticial atmosphere currently is, in both countries, such a dialogue will be hard to accomplish. While I think many issues can be solved easier than people may think, the discussion about reparations will take a lot longer and I don't think it will be solved as long as PiS is in power, quite simply because no German party likes to appear like they are giving PiS what they want.

Back on topic though:

What is the next "red-line" now? Combat airplanes. Quite frankly an issue that will mostly rest on America as, at least for Germany, we are not doing so great when it comes to aircraft right now. At least not unless Ukraine wants aircraft which don't fly.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 25. Jan 23, 13:07

clakclak wrote:
Wed, 25. Jan 23, 09:34
Seems like there has to be a bit of a new dialogue between Germany and Poland to overcome old devisions, which are understandable to say the least. The issue, however, is that with how charged the polticial atmosphere currently is, in both countries, such a dialogue will be hard to accomplish. While I think many issues can be solved easier than people may think, the discussion about reparations will take a lot longer and I don't think it will be solved as long as PiS is in power, quite simply because no German party likes to appear like they are giving PiS what they want.
To close this - I see this like Anglo-Franco animosity that need time and trust to settle.
Both English and French still agrue with eachother, but it didn't stopped them from helping eachother during WW1 and WW2.

Current situation with Ukraine kinda show it work like that - both Polish and German politics has it's odds and quirks, yet general direction is working towards supporting Ukraine.

clakclak wrote:
Wed, 25. Jan 23, 09:34
What is the next "red-line" now? Combat airplanes. Quite frankly an issue that will mostly rest on America as, at least for Germany, we are not doing so great when it comes to aircraft right now. At least not unless Ukraine wants aircraft which don't fly.

Rumors from today are that US has already designated a batch of planes for Ukraine.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Wed, 25. Jan 23, 21:43

UKR left Soledar.

As per the new UKR law, soldiers could face up to 12 years in prison for desertion, up to 10 years for disobedience or refusal to fight.
:gruebel: how much some get for corruption or fleeing from their home country?

About crossing red-lines, we know now that it takes a while. But a reaction is possible, who knows.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Thu, 26. Jan 23, 01:39

clakclak wrote:
Wed, 25. Jan 23, 09:34
[....]

Back on topic though:

What is the next "red-line" now? Combat airplanes. Quite frankly an issue that will mostly rest on America as, at least for Germany, we are not doing so great when it comes to aircraft right now. At least not unless Ukraine wants aircraft which don't fly.

Normally I would not quote myself but well: Ukraine calls for fighter jets after Germany’s offer of Leopard tanks
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 26. Jan 23, 16:38

I think there is an answer why we are already jumping to F-16 debate.


According to source in Polish MoD, our Mig-29 have been turned to "spare parts" since September 2022.


By spare parts I mean, here is "The Spare Part", 3 screws and IKEA wrench - assemble yourself.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Thu, 26. Jan 23, 17:38

It wouldn't even be that bad if UKR got F-16s. The pressure on Erdogan to agree to NATO expansion would increase, and who knows if he might even get F35s.
But who would fly the F16? Or has there been a secret training program for a year now?

Don't get me wrong, but both sides claim AA is well covered.

And what comes after the F16, submarines, aircraft carriers, cruise missiles,...

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Thu, 26. Jan 23, 18:42

No matter if you are in favour or against helping Ukraine, the next step was pretty much predictable. It may sound super rude or regarded as ungrateful in any other case but we may not forget that Ukraine is fighting an active war while we are all sitting in our comfy homes, it is not like they have a choice and they are trying to get all the help they can get as soon as possible.
This time though, Germany does not even have a functional air force. So nobody can complain.

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Und wenn ein Forenbösewicht, was Ungezogenes spricht, dann hol' ich meinen Kaktus und der sticht sticht sticht.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Thu, 26. Jan 23, 19:29

EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 26. Jan 23, 17:38
But who would fly the F16? Or has there been a secret training program for a year now?
Might be the case - there are rumours about training like that started in fall 2022.

While this war is transparent as hell - I wouldn't be surprised if there are some things which aren't published on social media.

In fact - I don't buy the recent discussion about the tank deliveries. Things like that aren't dictated by some random polish guy talking via media and then suddendly US, UK, GER sending tanks within of 3 months. ;)

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 26. Jan 23, 19:38

EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 26. Jan 23, 17:38
It wouldn't even be that bad if UKR got F-16s. The pressure on Erdogan to agree to NATO expansion would increase, and who knows if he might even get F35s.
But who would fly the F16? Or has there been a secret training program for a year now?
I heard that F-35 for Turkey are long gone, but instead US consider opening F-16 production in Turkey - which still might be a good deal for Turkey, US, NATO and F-16 users in general.


As for training? We don't know the extend and timeline for program(s).

Remember, that when war started UK sent a company of Challenger 2 to Poland for support...
...what are the odds that support mean that some friendly Ukrainian visitors had an opportunity to take a look and take a test drive for a few months already?

Suddenly that UK pledge to deliver 14 Challenger 2 doesn't look that stupid (training wise...logistically it's still a dumbsterfire).

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